Hey everybody!
If you’re unfamiliar with this series, each week Ben Palmer highlights hitting matchups you should take advantage of in your fantasy baseball league and ones that you should try to avoid based on the pitching matchups those hitters are slated to face that week. This week, I’m pinch-hitting while he’s otherwise occupied; I’ll also try to highlight a catcher or two to stream (if there are catchers worth streaming) because that position can be a real pain.
If you’d like to learn more about when it becomes less risky to stream hitters (and pitchers) and when certain team stats start to stabilize during the year, check out this article.
So let’s take a look at the hitters you should start and avoid for Week 9 (5/25-5/31) of the fantasy baseball season.
Notes: All pitching matchups mentioned here are based on projections as of this post’s publication. It is entirely possible that the actual matchups could change for any number of reasons. Keep in mind, this article is geared toward middle-of-the-road players, meaning you should be starting top-of-the-line bats regardless of the matchup. Always start your studs.
START
Orioles hitters – The Orioles have three games in LA against the Angels, then host the Nationals for three more. The Angels are scheduled to throw Sam Aldegheri, Ryan Johnson, and José Soriano. Aldegheri is giving up a ton of contact in the air with a 28.5% groundball rate. That can be manageable if you keep the bases relatively clear and generate a good number of strikeouts. Aldegheri has a 1.55 WHIP and a 14.3% strikeout rate. Johnson has not had success in a limited sample of major league innings this year. He’s made 5 appearances, two of them starts, and given up 5+ runs in three of them. He’s walked more batters than he’s struck out and is giving up homers on 20% of fly balls. Soriano has excellent numbers on the season, but he’s being buoyed by an incredible start to the year. Since May 1st, Soriano has a 5.06 ERA. He’s lost 8 percentage points of strikeout rate and gained 4 percentage points of walk rate.
The Nationals are fun this year, but it’s not because of the pitching staff. The Orioles are lined up to get Andrew Alvarez, Foster Griffin, and Zack Littell. Alvarez and Griffin have pretty solid K-BB numbers, sitting at 15.7% and 16.4%, respectively. Alvarez has allowed a good amount of hard contact, though, with xERA suggesting his ERA should be in the high 4’s. Other ERA estimators are in the low 3’s, though, and the Orioles aren’t great against lefties. The Orioles are generally much better at home, though, with Camden Yards being a very hitter-friendly park (second by Statcast park factors). ERA estimators are generally less optimistic about Griffin than Alvarez, as he’s benefited from a .248 BABIP and an 82.3% strand rate. Littell is the obvious target here. His average fastball velo is sitting at 91.7 MPH, down over 3 MPH from his peak, and he’s getting tattooed. With the Nats in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, take advantage of every Littell and Miles Mikolas matchup you can before the Nats can upgrade.
Blaze Alexander is on a heater right now. He’s hitting .413/.457/.619 over the past month, spanning 71 plate appearances. Alexander has reverse splits this year, hitting righties better than lefties, but he has a .775 career OPS vs lefties. The Orioles will face three lefties in their six games, so he’s a good streaming option this week.
Phillies hitters – It’s been a tough season for the Phillies’ offense, but maybe this week will turn things around for them. They start with a four-game series in D.C. against the Nationals. They’ve got the fortune to face both Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas in the series. Littell just doesn’t have it anymore, especially at home, where he’s serving up a 6.31 ERA courtesy of a 1.7% K-BB and 3.82 HR/9. Mikolas has a career low 13.8% K rate and 24.4% CSW. Both Mikolas and Littell were among the biggest improvers in May, but they’ve given a lot of the improvement back in June. It’s really hard to be a successful major league starter when you strike out fewer than 5 batters every 9 innings, and both Littell and Mikolas haven’t reached that level in June. The Phillies also get Foster Griffin, discussed above, and Cade Cavalli. Cavalli has been pretty solid for the Nationals this year, although the control wavers from start to start. He left Saturday night’s start after giving up 9 baserunners in 2.2 innings, despite fortunately holding the Rays to just 2 runs.
The second Phillies series is in New York against the Mets. The Phillies just hung 15 on the Mets thanks to a three-homer game from Kyle Schwarber. In New York, they’ll see David Peterson, Kodai Senga, and Nolan McLean. McLean is one to dodge in daily leagues, but Senga has really struggled despite his fastball velo rebounding to 96 MPH. Peterson’s 2022-23 strikeout rate of 27% has disappeared; he’s hung out around this year’s 19.4% for the past 3 seasons. Peterson’s ERA estimators mostly have his ERA starting with a 4, which would be a significant improvement on the 5.81 he’s posted so far this year.
CATCHER TO STREAM: JT Realmuto has had a poor start to the year, not unlike the rest of his teammates. He’ll get 5 righties out of 7 matchups this week, though, and has reverse splits both this season and for his career. Statcast thinks he’s missing 50 points of batting average and 80 points of slugging. A .254/.338/.397 line would be a slight improvement on what Francisco Alvarez has given the Mets, which is good for a 106 wRC+.
Cardinals hitters – The Cardinals have 7 games at home this week. The first four are against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is scheduled to start Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Unknown Starter, and Zac Gallen. Kelly has had a miserable start to 2026. His ERA sits at 5.81 after 12 starts. While his xFIP is 5.35, he’s allowed enough hard contact for Statcast to give him a 7.46 xERA. Kelly’s K-BB sits at 4.5%, better than only Jack Kochanowicz among pitchers who have thrown 60 innings. Rodriguez has had a ton of success this year, but all of his peripherals say he’s a mid-rotation starter at best. Gallen is the 11th-worst pitcher in K-BB among pitchers with 60+ innings. He’s got a 5.35 ERA, which is consistent with all of his peripherals. The Diamondbacks haven’t announced who will replace Ryne Nelson in the rotation, but they say it’s not Brandon Pfaadt until he’s fully stretched out. Even if it is, he’s been poor since 2024 ended.
In the weekend series, the Cardinals will host the Marlins. They’re lined up to face Max Meyer on Friday. He’s had excellent results and has strong underlying numbers, so you might dodge him in daily leagues. The other two matchups are scheduled to be Ryan Gusto and Tyler Phillips. Gusto has had success in the minors this year, but a career 5.85 ERA and 12.7% K-BB, both of which are better than his numbers in 13.2 major league innings this year. Phillips has a 3.10 ERA and ERA estimators over 4.00. Those numbers are being supported by 34.2 innings out of the bullpen with an 86.6% strand rate. As a starter, hitters have hit for 44 more points of wOBA against Phillips.
The Cardinals’ offense has also been cooking over the last couple of weeks. Nine of the 11 hitters with at least 20 plate appearances in that time frame have a wRC+ of 108 or higher. Blaze Jordan and Nathan Church could be worth a look to stream this week.
CATCHER TO STREAM: Jimmy Crooks has been in the lineup against four of the last five righties the Cardinals have faced. Other than Rodriguez, the Cardinals have only righties this week. It’s been a tough return to life in the majors for Crooks, but his plate discipline numbers have been okay, and he’s making contact at a decent rate. He’s sitting at a .200 BABIP despite generally solid exit velos. Statcast has his expected average at .252, a significant improvement on his current .167 rate.
AVOID
Athletics hitters – It feels a little odd to sit here and recommend sitting your Athletics hitters when they’re 5th in baseball with a 118 wRC+ over the past month. Give me a second, though. The Athletics have 6 games this week, all of them on the road. The first three are in San Francisco, which is a slightly pitcher-friendly park according to the Statcast park factors, and particularly suppresses homers. The second set has the A’s visiting the Angels. Neither of these opponents has a particularly good pitching staff, either.
So why am I suggesting you be cautious here? The A’s offense is entirely dependent on their home park. In the last 30 days, when the A’s have posted that aforementioned 118 wRC+, they have played 17 games at home (including 3 in Las Vegas). They’ve played 11 games in that span on the road, visiting the Cubs, Astros, Padres, and Angels, all bottom-third pitching staffs over the past month by xFIP. In their home games, the A’s have a 137 wRC+. On the road, it drops to an 83 wRC+. That’s a .275/.351/.533 line at home (approximately Matt Olson) and a .210/.312/.337 line on the road (approximately Xander Bogaerts). It might be time to start treating A’s hitters the same way you should treat Rockies hitters. Get them in your lineup for every home game, but bench them for better alternatives if you have them when they’re on the road.
Cubs hitters – The Cubs have 7 games this week, starting with a four-game set hosting the Mets and concluding with three games in Milwaukee. There are maybe two matchups you’d target here in daily leagues. The first matchup is against Kodai Senga on Monday. It’s been a rough go of things for Senga in limited time this year. His 2023 velo has returned, but Stuff+ thinks he’s below average in both stuff and location. PitchingBot gives him a 4.57 botERA, which would be a massive improvement on his current 9.00. After that, the Cubs get Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta, and Sean Manaea. McLean had a couple of stinkers at the end of May, but has bounced back with a 1.64 ERA in 4 starts since then. Peralta’s been inconsistent, but is still a well-above-average pitcher (or so I thought until I just saw the stinker he dropped Saturday against the Phillies…). Nick made the case for some cautious optimism regarding Manaea here.
In the latter half of the week, the Cubs are lined up to face Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, and Brandon Woodruff. The Misiorowski buzzsaw continues slicing through opposing lineups. Since May 1st, Miz has a 0.45 ERA, a 40.3% K rate, and a 4.6% walk rate. He hasn’t given up a homer since April 14th. Harrison is having a massive breakout season this year. Tonight’s line of 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K’s actually raised his ERA and lowered his strikeout rate. Woodruff has also been excellent since returning from his long injury absence last year. He’s more of a command specialist with lower velo now, but he’s been effective, with a 3.33 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 94.2 innings. He’s coming off the IL with a shoulder injury earlier in the week, so you’ll get some additional information for daily leagues before you have to make a decision.
Reds hitters – There are a few games here you can target for daily leagues, but it’s a generally tough slate for the Reds. They start with three at home against the Brewers. They’re fortunate to miss both Harrison and Misiorowski. Instead, they get Woodruff, Brandon Sproat, and Shane Drohan. Sproat hasn’t had much success this year, so roll with the Reds at home against him for sure. Drohan has generally been pretty good, pitching to a 3.40 ERA with ERA estimators between 3.14 and 3.70. He’s been a little worse since joining the rotation, but he’s still rocking a solid 15.7% K-BB since joining the rotation, which would rank 55th of 167 pitchers with 40+ innings.
In the second half of the week, the Reds have three games at Pittsburgh. The first of these is against Paul Skenes, whose 2.85 ERA is 0.88 larger than his previous season high. Their second matchup is against Jared Jones. Jones has struggled since coming off the IL, but his SIERA and xFIP sit just under 4.00. Jones still has elite velo and above-average stuff for a starter (101 Stuff+). He’s had two good outings and two poor outings, but you could roll with your Reds against him in daily leagues if you’re looking for some variance. Their last matchup is against Mitch Keller, and I’d target this one in daily leagues like the Sproat matchup. Keller’s velo has continued to slowly decline, now sitting at 93.6 MPH. That’s below the MLB average for right-handed starters. Stuff+ thinks his arsenal has been much worse in 2025-26 than earlier in his career. PLV disagrees, saying he’s been consistent since 2024, but in the 33rd percentile.
