I want to ask the readers of Pitcher List a very simple, yet possibly complex question, depending on how you look at it. My question is…At what point do you consider a team to be in or out of the playoff race? There are so many ways to answer this. For me, it comes down to a few things:
- What point of the season are we in?
- How many games back is a team of a playoff spot?
- Who are they chasing in the standings?
- How healthy are they currently, and how healthy will they be going forward?
That’s it. So, as I’m thinking about this weekend’s top five series list, it’s a little tricky. I’m considering those four questions today. We’re in June, which, for me, isn’t a time to eliminate any team from the postseason picture unless they are at least 10 games out of a playoff spot or dealing with season-long injuries they are unlikely to recover from.
My mind is going all over the place this weekend, because every series involves at least one playoff contender within 5 ½ games of the postseason. I’m counting six series that match clubs within at least two games of a postseason spot. Those instantly get consideration. I also have to factor in a division series like Detroit at Cleveland, especially with the return of Tarik Skubal on Saturday, who will be making his first start since April 29 (surgery to remove a loose body from left elbow). He’s back far sooner than most expected. That’s going to be an intriguing start to follow, especially with the trade rumors surrounding last year’s AL Cy Young winner.
Anyway, I could go on and on about what’s going through my mind right now. Clearly, I’m struggling to find the best five series of the weekend. As always, I’m going to go with my gut while factoring in importance and intrigue.
No. 1: Atlanta (45-23) at Mets (30-38)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
All that talk about having six series involving teams within two games of a playoff spot, and here at No. 1, we have an NL East battle between MLB’s top club, and the franchise from Queens, NY, that is eight games under .500, and currently 5 ½ games out of a wild card spot. I’ll admit, this wouldn’t earn the top spot if it weren’t for the fact that this is the first meeting of the year between these rivals. They’ll be playing 13 times from now until the end of the season, and if the Mets have any hope of getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2024, they’ll have to play better against Atlanta than in recent campaigns. New York hasn’t won a season series versus Atlanta since 2017, when they went 12-7 in their head-to-head meetings.
This home series is an opportunity for the Mets to open some eyes. They are 5-5 over the last 10 games, and just dropped two of three contests at home versus the Cardinals. New York’s schedule doesn’t get any easier after this series with the NL East’s top squad. They hit the road next week for a series against the Reds and Phillies, before returning home to face the Cubs and Philadelphia over a seven-game stretch. As I’ve said multiple times recently about the White Sox’s brutal June schedule, the same applies to the Mets over this crucial stretch.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: ATL – Spencer Strider (7 GS, 4-1, 4.00 ERA) versus NYM – Nolan McLean (13 GS, 3-4, 3.98 ERA)
Saturday: ATL – Martín Pérez (13 G, 9 GS, 4-3, 3.02 ERA) versus NYM – Sean Manaea (14 G, 0 GS, 1-1, 5.02 ERA)
Sunday: ATL – Bryce Elder (14 GS, 5-3, 2.66 ERA) versus NYM – Freddy Peralta (14 GS, 4-5, 4.04 ERA)
No. 2: Yankees (41-26) at Blue Jays (33-36)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
These AL East foes split a four-game series last month in the Bronx. I’m at a point with Toronto, where I feel the best is undoubtedly yet to come, especially given the weak American League. At 33-36, last year’s AL champs have been in and out of the final wild card spot for the last couple of weeks, and are currently 1 ½ games behind Texas for the final WC position. If other borderline postseason teams around the league aren’t going to play any better, then I believe it will be the Blue Jays, on talent alone, who end up as the second or third wild card team. However, if Canada’s squad is going to make me look good, they’ll have to improve on their 13-20 record away from home. The Jays travel to Fenway Park and Wrigley Field next week. I’m curious to see how that goes against two struggling clubs.
The Yanks are playing well, even without their star, Aaron Judge (likely out until at least July with a stress fracture in the rib). Judge last played on May 31. New York is 5-3 in June and enters Friday on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Guardians at Progressive Field this week.
Here are the expected pitching matchups over the next three days. I have my eyes on Saturday’s battle between Cam Schlittler and Kevin Gausman.
Friday: NYY – Ryan Weathers (12 GS, 2-4, 3.68 ERA) versus TOR – Trey Yesavage (8 GS, 2-3, 3.16 ERA)
Saturday: NYY – Cam Schlittler (14 GS, 7-3, 1.87 ERA) versus TOR – Kevin Gausman (14 GS, 4-4, 3.60 ERA)
Sunday: NYY – Will Warren (13 GS, 7-1, 3.28 ERA) versus TOR – Patrick Corbin (12 GS, 2-3, 4.55 ERA)
No. 3: Dodgers (44-25) at White Sox (36-31)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I left the White Sox off Monday’s top five versus Atlanta in what I considered one of the odder choices by me so far this season. Atlanta and Chicago entered Monday with the highest combined winning percentage of any series, and yet I kept it off to avoid repeating what was already mentioned from the previous week about the current AL Central leaders. I say “current” because after sweeping Atlanta at home in what turned out to be a two-game series after Thursday’s rainout, the South Siders are officially a half-game ahead of Cleveland for the division lead. Guess what? I’m not doing it again. Chicago deserves a top-five spot against the franchise looking to become the first three-peat World Series champs since the Yankees (’98-’00).
I mentioned earlier how well the Yanks have played since Judge went to the IL. Chicago’s ROY candidate and player most responsible, many would say, for the White Sox turnaround this year, Munetaka Murakami, has been out since May 30 with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Since May 29, the last game Murakami played, the Sox are 6-4, and holding ground in the playoff hunt. I’m still not sold that this club can hang on in the postseason race while Murakami is out until I see how they perform over the next two series versus the Dodgers and Yankees.
However, if they get more clutch knocks like this one from youngster Braden Montgomery on Tuesday, then perhaps, Chicago will not only hang around in the wild card race, but quite possibly be right there for the AL Central crown at the end of September.
The Dodgers need no introduction. There’s so much about Los Angeles that I marvel at, especially considering the constant injuries to the pitching staff. It’s amazing that only three weeks ago today, this team was in a tight division race with San Diego and Arizona. The Padres were only a half-game back of the Blue Crew on May 22, while the D-backs were playing fairly well against the lesser clubs and were in the hunt at 4 ½ games back. Today, those franchises are eight and 9 ½ games behind the Dodgers, respectively. Does anyone truly believe that Los Angeles will allow either of those clubs back in the division race?
Back to this head-to-head matchup. This is the only one of the weekend featuring two division leaders. Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki (11 GS, 3-3, 4.03 ERA) gets the ball in Friday’s opener versus White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay (13 G, 11 GS, 5-1, 4.40 ERA).
No. 4: Phillies (37-31) at Brewers (41-25)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
It’s possible that I have this series ranked too low on the list. After all, we’re probably getting the best single-game pitching matchup of this weekend on Sunday when Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez (14 GS, 8-2, 1.54 ERA) battles Milwaukee’s Kyle Harrison (12 GS, 7-1, 2.72 ERA). But I’m comfortable with my decision.
Philadelphia hasn’t lost a series this month, yet they’ve only gained 1 ½ games on Atlanta in the NL East since the start of June. At eight games back in the NL East, and a schedule coming up after this series with Milwaukee that will only be against division opponents until June 29, this feels like the best opportunity the Phillies will have to make a run at Atlanta, or at the very least, blow by the rest of the division. Their schedule over the next two weeks, beginning on Monday, will be as follows: 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Mets, 4 at Nationals, 3 at Mets. Yeah, it’s go time for the Phils.
Another note about this series. I’m looking at it as a statement opportunity for the two front-runners in the NL Cy Young race. I already mentioned that Sanchez will pitch in Sunday’s finale. We can’t forget about Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski on Friday (13 GS, 7-2, 1.50 ERA). He’ll face the struggling rookie, Andrew Painter (12 G, 11 GS, 1-7, 6.21 ERA). As I said on Monday about the disappointment of not getting an Ohtani vs. Skenes pitching duel in the Dodgers vs. Pirates series, I’ll say the same about not getting a matchup between the top two starting pitchers in MLB so far in ’26, Sanchez and Misiorowski. Maybe, just maybe, the baseball gods will allow us to see Sanchez vs. The Miz when these clubs meet again in the second-to-last series of the regular season in late September at Philadelphia.
No. 5: Marlins (34-35) at Pirates (35-34)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Combined, they are .500 clubs. However, they earn a top-five spot this weekend because the Marlins have won five straight contests and are 8-2 over their last 10 games. Miami’s winning streak is the current longest in baseball, and after sweeping the visiting Diamondbacks this week by outscoring them 20-6 in those three matches, I think it’s time to give them some love.
What else is there to say about Miami’s breakout 27-year-old infielder, Otto Lopez, other than this guy can hit. Lopez enters the weekend leading MLB with a .344 batting average on 93 knocks. He’s gotten better with each passing month, and right now has a .426 BA over nine June contests. His teammate, Xavier Edwards, is batting .304, and combined with Lopez, they make up two of 16 qualified players currently hitting .300 or better.
There are two pitching duels in this series that I’m very intrigued by. Friday’s expected matchup between Miami’s Sandy Alcantara (14 GS, 5-4, 4.33 ERA) and Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft (13 GS, 5-3, 3.28 ERA). This should be entertaining as long as Alcantara continues to pitch as he has over his last two starts (2-0, 14 IP, 4 ER, 12 K). Consistency has been the former Cy Young’s main issue over the last few seasons. For as much as I’m looking forward to Friday’s duel, Sunday’s finale between Marlins’ undefeated hurler Max Meyer (14 GS, 6-0, 2.85 ERA) and the Buccos’ Paul Skenes (14 GS, 6-2, 2.84 ERA) is easily the runner-up for the most intriguing pitching battle of the weekend behind only the Sanchez vs. Harrison contest on the same afternoon.
It’s a very relevant series between two franchises just a hair out of the postseason picture. The Pirates are one game behind San Diego for the final NL wild card spot, while the Marlins are just two back for that same position.
Missed the Top Five
Mariners (36-34) at Nationals (35-34): Three games
Padres (35-32) at Orioles (33-37): Three games
Tigers (29-40) at Guardians (37-33): Three games
Rangers (34-34) at Red Sox (27-39): Three games
Diamondbacks (34-34) at Reds (32-35): Three games
Astros (31-39) at Royals (28-41): Three games
Cardinals (37-29) at Twins (31-39): Three games
Rays (40-25) at Angels (27-42): Three games
Rockies (26-43) at A’s (33-35): Three games
Cubs (35-34) at Giants (28-41): Three games
