Sonny Gray’s sweeper remains the league’s best out pitch with a 33.2% Out Rate. That is one percent lower than it was last week. Essentially, a third of the time that Gray throws his sweeper, it results in an out. That is 14.7% higher than league average Out% for sweepers, and 5.1% higher than the next-best overall Out Rate on any pitch.
The other pitches in the top 10 of Out% include a fastball from Greg Weissert, as well as sweepers from Mitch Keller and Bryan Hudson. Changeups from Jason Adam and Pedro Avila, and splitters from Mark Leiter Jr., Reed Garrett, Bryce Miller, and Justin Martinez also land in the top-10 overall.
Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.
Average Out%
Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.
Fastball (FF) – 16.6%
Cutter (FC) – 16.4%
Sinker (SI) – 17.8%
Splitter (FS) – 20.6%
Slider (SL) – 18.3%
Curveball (CU) – 17%
Sweeper (ST) – 18.5%
Changeup (CH) – 19.6%
Fastball Out% Leaders
As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.
Of the 15 pitchers in the top-10 of fastball Out%, the only ones who have an ERA worse than league average are JP Sears, Jalen Beeks, Mitchell Parker, Frankie Montas, and Bowden Francis. Of those five, Francis has a SIERA that is better than his ERA. This is about the same rate of pitchers in the top-10 of fastball Out% that also have an ERA better than league average.
Fastball Out% Leaders (16.6% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 21.7% |
| Tobias Myers | 21.4% |
| Robert Suarez | 20.3% |
| Frankie Montas | 20.2% |
| Bowden Francis | 19.9% |
| Logan Gilbert, Bailey Falter | 19.8% |
| George Kirby, Jalen Beeks | 19.7% |
| JP Sears | 19.2% |
| Shota Imanaga, Cole Ragans | 19.1% |
| Justin Verlander, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker | 18.9% |
For a pitcher with well below-average velocity on his fastball, Bailey Falter makes it work and has been incredibly effective at getting batters out with it. He gets an elite seven feet four inches of extension, which helps to make his 91.8 MPH fastball feel a little faster. He also ranks as the top 15 pitchers in vertical movement versus league average among pitchers who have tossed at least 750 fastballs. When you can strike out Elly De La Cruz with a 91 MPH fastball, you are doing something right:
Bailey Falter strikes out Elly De La Cruz
91.8 MPH fastball, 2206 RPM, 12 inVB, 3 inHB pic.twitter.com/9AOprpQSxo
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) August 23, 2024
Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.
Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders
Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.
Cutter Out% Leaders (16.4% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 20.9% |
| Corbin Burnes | 20.5% |
| Kutter Crawford | 20.3% |
| Nestor Cortes | 19.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | 19.6% |
| Zach Eflin | 19.3% |
| Garrett Crochet | 19.2% |
| Bailey Ober | 19% |
| Ryne Nelson | 18.8% |
| Dean Kremer | 18.6% |
Bailey Ober’s most notable pitch this season has been his changeup, but his cutter has been extremely effective as well. He locates it incredibly well – it has a 108 plvLoc+ grade – and gets just over seven feet of extension. Similar to Falter, he throws it much slower than league average, but location and extension make it difficult to hit for batters. Among pitchers who have thrown a cutter in at least 100 plate appearances, Ober is one of seven to rank in the top 15 of batting average against, whiff%, strikeout%, and putaway%. Here is how it looks:
4) Bailey Ober – Cutter
While Ober has struggled to replicate his 4-Seam success from 2023, he has introduced a cutter which has been very effective. The offering bridges his 4-Seam and Slider and also induces awkward swings, leading to plenty of chases and poor contact
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 28, 2024
Sinker Out% Leaders (17.8% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 24.6% |
| Miles Mikolas | 23.8% |
| Tarik Skubal | 23.5% |
| Bryce Miller | 22.8% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 21.9% |
| Ben Lively | 21.7% |
| Bryse Wilson | 21% |
| Tyler Rogers, George Kirby, Seth Lugo | 20.7% |
| Luis Castillo, Dylan Floro | 20.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | 20.4% |
Zack Wheeler has owned arguably the best sinker, in terms of getting batters out, nearly all season. It has a .178 BAA, 15% whiff rate, a 24% strikeout rate, and a 27% putaway rate. Among pitchers that have thrown a sinker in at least 100 PAs, nobody has better numbers in all four categories. There are a few reasons why Wheeler’s sinker has been so successful at inducing outs.
Wheeler makes up for the below average location in other ways. He throws his sinker faster than league average and gets elite extension. He also manages above average arm side break, while maintaining an effective approach angle. This all leads to his sinker being one of the best, if not the best, in the league.
Splitter Out% Leaders (20.6% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Justin Martinez | 27.1% |
| Bryce Miller | 26.9% |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 26.2% |
| Reed Garrett | 26% |
| Fernando Cruz | 23.2% |
| Taj Bradley | 22.8% |
| Tanner Houck | 22.7% |
| Cal Quantrill | 21.8% |
| Logan Gilbert | 21.4% |
| Kyle Finnegan, Shota Imanaga | 21.3% |
According to our PLV data, Justin Martinez’s splitter ranks as the fourth best in baseball. While location is an issue – he has allowed four walks per nine innings – Martinez throws it hard and uses the lack of spin to make it difficult for batters to hit. In fact, he averages the tenth lowest amount of RPM on his splitter in all of baseball. What has resulted is a nearly unhittable pitch. Martinez has thrown his splitter 213 times, and it has been hit five times, for a BAA of .078. Among pitchers who have thrown a splitter in at least 10 PAs, Martinez has the second best BAA, and his 36% putaway rate also ranks second. The 68% K rate on his splitter is the best in the league, and his 52% whiff rate ranks third. Nobody is better in all four categories. He has five saves, all in the month of August, and should continue to get save opportunities. His splitter is a major reason for that. Imagine trying to hit this:
Justin Martinez, Obscene 90mph Splitter. 😯
747 RPMs. pic.twitter.com/YGf3d9y4L4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 21, 2024
For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.
Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders
Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.
Slider Out% Leaders (18.3% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 24.5% |
| Marcus Stroman | 23.2% |
| Ryan Helsley, Yusei Kikuchi | 22.5% |
| Hunter Gaddis | 22.4% |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 22.1% |
| Andrew Chafin, Ronel Blanco, Corbin Burnes | 21.3% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | 21.2% |
| Chris Sale | 20.9% |
| Michael Grove, Michael Tonkin, Carlos Rodon, Dylan Cease | 20.7% |
| Jon Gray | 20.6% |
Jon Gray’s slider has been his best pitch this season, and it has been one of the best sliders in baseball at getting batters out.
Across the board, it is a great pitch. It comes in faster than league average with some insane induced vertical break and arm side break. Plus, he possesses an elite plvLoc+ on it as well. All of those factors have resulted in his slider’s .211 BAA, 33% whiff rate, and 21% putaway rate.
Curveball Out% Leaders (17% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 24.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | 22.3% |
| Tim Herrin | 22.1% |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 21.9% |
| Triston McKenzie | 21.3% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 20.2% |
| Framber Valdez | 19.9% |
| Nick Lodolo | 19.8% |
| Jose Quintana | 19.5% |
| Charlie Morton | 19.1% |
Jameson Taillon’s curveball is 15th-best according to our PLV leaderboard, and it comes as no surprise why. He induces outs with that pitch 22% of the time. He has elite location as well – a 109 plvLoc+ and the league’s best 117 Loc+ among pitchers who have thrown at least 120 IP. It has about an inch more horizontal and vertical movement than league average, and the 12-6 motion has helped in inducing a 22% whiff rate. Check it out:
Jameson Taillon, Nasty 79mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/naKBeZAM4i
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 3, 2024
Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 33.2% |
| Mitch Keller | 27.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | 24.3% |
| Nick Pivetta | 23.1% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 22.9% |
| Colin Rea | 22.3% |
| Aaron Civale | 20.9% |
| Kutter Crawford | 20.1% |
| Ben Lively | 19.4% |
| Sean Manaea, Erick Fedde | 19% |
Ben Lively’s sweeper has a .238 BAA and a 24% whiff rate, despite a lower than average velocity. He makes up for it with nearly elite extension, and above average iVB, arm side break, approach angle, and plvLoc+. And it grades as a Quality Pitch according to our PLV data. Lively has pitched relatively well all season and his awesome sweeper has been a major reason why. Here is a look at it in action:
Ben Lively’s sweeper 👀 pic.twitter.com/FOtXfcZ7Sb
— Doyle Media (@batflipbombz) June 22, 2024
Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.
- Michael Wacha
- Kevin Gausman
- Frankie Montas
- Sean Manaea
- Trevor Rogers
- Carlos Rodon
- Kyle Gibson
- Justin Verlander
- Nick Pivetta
- Dean Kremer
- Griffin Canning
Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.5% League Average
Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:
Changeup Out% Leaders (19.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 24.2% |
| Michael King | 24.1% |
| Jose Berrios | 24% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 23.8% |
| Michael Wacha | 23.7% |
| Bailey Ober | 23.5% |
| Logan Webb | 23.2% |
| Chris Sale | 23% |
| Tarik Skubal | 22.5% |
| Michael Lorenzen | 22.2% |
Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup has a .208 BAA, a 38% whiff rate, a 31% K rate, and a 21% putaway rate. Among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 100 PAs, only Grayson Rodriguez can claim better numbers in all four categories. Among pitchers who have thrown a changeup at least 500 times, only Sanchez is top three in both horizontal and vertical movement compared to league average. He has elite extension and arm side break, both of which make his changeup insanely difficult to square up. They are a major reason why Sanchez has been able to induce a -1 degree launch angle, why his changeup grades as a Quality Pitch, and why his changeup induces outs nearly a quarter of the time he throws it. Here he is inducing a big swing and miss with it recently:
Cristopher Sánchez, Nasty 86mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/p6BKYs6tfn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 22, 2024
Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:
Pitchers to Target Based on Out%
Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches. Since the trade deadline has passed in many fantasy leagues, these are a few pitchers to target on waivers.