Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Will Warren (NYY) @ ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
I’ve been comparing Will Warren and Emerson Hancock for weeks now. They’ve had similar levels of success this year, and the resemblance doesn’t stop at the results. They both deploy nearly identical pitch mixes, relying heavily on sinkers and four-seamers to drive their success, while failing to nail down the feel for their sweepers and changeups to suggest sustainability
So, with the two pitchers on parallel paths and Hancock turning in another scoreless outing last Tuesday in Sacramento, it was time for Warren to follow suit, as he went 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches (W) in Sacramento as well.
The growing concern with Hancock has been the declining iVB on his four-seamer, so Warren, in an act of solidarity, removed nearly two inches of rise from his four-seamer. Losing 0.3 feet of extension diminished the effectiveness of his heaters even further. It didn’t hurt him against RHBs, as he went 83% fastballs to induce nearly half of his whiffs on the night. The most promising note about his same-handed batter approach was his ability to nail the outer edge with the five sweepers he threw. We want to see those land low so they can be true whiff pitches, but more than half of them landed in the top half of the zone.
LHBs saw changeups mix in 21% of the time, but Warren continued his trend of being unable to find the zone when pronating his wrist (9% zone rate and 36% strikes on changeups). His breakers snuck in for 86% strikes, but he was still forced to fill up the zone with his more hittable heaters, producing four of the six hits against him.
Warren was fortunate to strand nine baserunners in this one, and I’m beginning to be reminded of the struggles he faced after the first two months last year. He held a 4.09 ERA and a 31% strikeout rate through his first 11 starts before losing the feel for his secondaries and recording a 4.59 ERA and a 21% strikeout rate in 22 starts the rest of the way.
This year, Warren hasn’t even had those secondaries working, and has survived on sinkers and four-seamers like a college freshman survives on ramen and energy drinks. He and his twin flame, Hancock, are skating on thin ice with diminishing arsenals that have overperformed without the proper assistance of reliable arsenal depth. I’d be selling high where I can, knowing that this won’t last forever. Their next outings against the Red Sox (WW) and Mets (EH) may be the last time they celebrate a shared victory. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) @ HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The fact that eight Ks and the lack of a Gallows Pole is underwhelming should tell you how good Misiorowski is. He closed out the month of May with a 0.23 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, and a 42% strikeout rate in six starts, averaging 100.5 mph on his four-seamer in his final outing. (View Game Card)
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
Bradish hasn’t been perfect recently, but he’s quelled our concerns about his demise. On the verge of being sent to the wire, he’s turned things around with a 1.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 24% strieout rate across his last five starts. It hasn’t been the same path to success each time out, but the improved command of his entire arsenal has been the key. He did a great job of getting sliders gloveside, keeping curves low, locating four-seamers high, and filling up the zone with sinkers, allowing him to avoid damage on his hittable heaters and induce all 11 whiffs with his breakers. Thanks for being dope, KB. (View Game Card)
Keider Montero (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 65 pitches.
I guess it’s okay to throw four-seamers in the zone 81% of the time if you know you’re going to be in the good graces of Koufax and return 8/9 outs on balls in play. I guess you didn’t really have a choice, given your secondaries (sliders, curves, changeups) combined for just 57% strikes, also finding batted ball luck with 5/6 outs on balls in play. Montero is a 15-team WHIP play, and he’s lived up to that designation with an even 1.00 WHIP through 11 starts. The Tigers’ rotation hasn’t been fully healthy all year, but I wonder if Montero can hold onto his rotation spot when Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Justin Verlander all return from the IL in due time. (View Game Card)
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs KCR (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 101 pitches.
How do you like the taste of that coin? Mmmmmetal. You only like it cause the coin flip went your way this time. Leiter is a PEAS and a HIPSTER, making it 50/50 whether he’ll battle himself or the opposing batters. Four-seamers filled up the zone (64% zone rate), setting the table with sliders on the left side of the plate and changeups on the right side of the plate. Does that make the sliders the forks and the changeups the knives? I guess so? Mmmmmetal. They’re plastic utensils. They’re not effective. The Royals weren’t hungry, allowing him to leave heaters over the plate, stealing 15 called strikes, and avoiding damage when they did swing, with 11 foul balls. Leiter was lucky to return 10 Ks on 12 whiffs, thanks to a 67% per-batter PAR, and Koufax had his back with 8/11 outs on balls in play. This is all to say that Leiter wasn’t at his best, despite what the line suggests. Nothing from this outing changes his outlook. I don’t like the taste of metal, and won’t be flipping this coin vs CLE next. (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs PHI (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He sat a tick up at 96-97 mph with four-seamers, allowing him to dominate upstairs for a season-high 10 punchouts. I’m so glad he’s finally pulling that approach off after years of begging. That’s an important life lesson – never stop begging! (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs CHC (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
Liberatore’s doing everything he can to get us interested. A career-high nine strikeouts driven by curveball feel? Nah, we can’t expect you to have your best hook every time, and you failed to complete five frames. Fine, what if I complete five frames and set a new career-high with 10 strikeouts? Nah, your locations were all over the place. How about increased four-seamer and curveball velo with BSB intent? Dude, we’re not buying what you’re selling! Wait…did you say increased velo and a new game plan? Yes! Please give me a chance! You know what? Fine. Your heater wasn’t bad at 95-96 mph with 17″ of vert, earning plenty of strikes (78%), while curveballs and sliders generally stayed low, inducing four whiffs. I guess I’ll have you in the questionable start tier with Reds Carpet up next. Just don’t make me look foolish! I won’t disappoint! Never stop begging. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 71 pitches.
Miller got to start this time as Luis Castillo followed for 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 71 pitches (W). Miller’s settled in at 96 mph (still up a tick from 2025), overwhelming with heaters in the zone while sliders and splitters landed low for strikes (74%) and whiffs (seven). He was primed to push past 71 pitches until Castillo jumped on his back and rode him to the finish line. Or would Miller be riding Castillo’s back in this situation? Either way, nobody likes this setup, but it’s working for the Mariners. I guess Castillo sort of likes it, though, as he’s found a new gear, gassing his velo up two ticks to sit 96-97 with four-seamers and sinkers while sliders came in at 87-88 mph. He’s also improved his command, pulling off the BSB with four-seamers upstairs and sliders low. Why did you wait until things got complicated to figure things out, Luis? Please just do a six-man rotation. It makes too much sense. It’ll work itself out eventually. (View Game Card)
Cade Gibson (MIA) @ NYM (L) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 16 pitches.
This was supposed to be Janson Junk, but he was scratched and ultimately landed on the 15-day IL with shin bone inflammation, leaving us with this bullpen game. Prayers up! (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) vs DET (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
I’ve seen the potential in Burke, but have been waiting for him to force my hand with something that screamed like a toddler, PICK ME UP! We got that here as he found some velo in his back pocket, sitting more than a tick up on everything. His already elite four-seamer sat 95-96 mph with 18″ of vert, landing upstairs incessantly for eight whiffs and 38% CSW. Unfortunately, he didn’t get his breakers down like he should have to pull off the BSB. Well, he did vs lefties, but they hung in the middle of the zone against righties, preventing him from properly taking off. The worst part? This newfound velo has come at the worst time as he’s scheduled to get @PHI, LAD, @NYY in his next three starts. Survive that gauntlet and we’ll be all in. (View Game Card)
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
We were praying for a bounce back from McLean after he allowed a combined 16 runs (13 earned) in his last two starts. This is a step in the right direction, but the five walks keep the concerns alive. The only pitch he was able to command consistently was his cutter, while everything else either returned low strike rates or was inconsistently located. He’s not at his peak right now, but this is the ebb and flow of a pitcher. For the vast majority of them, their command moves like a sine wave throughout a season, with hot streaks coinciding with high strike rates and avoidance of the heart of the plate, and cold streaks coinciding with the opposite. McLean’s track record isn’t extensive, but he’s reached high enough highs for extended enough periods that we shouldn’t give up hope after three less-than-stellar starts. Buy low everywhere. (View Game Card)
Shane McClanahan (TBR) vs LAA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 70 pitches.
McShane hasn’t displayed the same strikeout ceiling as he did prior to his two-year absence, inducing whiffs 4% less often than he did at his peak in 2022-23. We’ll still take this “diminished”, elite Holly version of him any day. Fastballs and changeups caught a bit too much of the zone, making him more reliant on balls in play than usual. That made him more efficient, allowing him to complete five frames in just 70 pitches. I worry a little that the Rays may limit him like this more often, given his lack of workload over the past couple of years, but I prefer this over a hard innings cap or phantom IL stints. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SFG) @ COL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 96 pitches.
I assume most of ya’ll avoided Ray in Coors following his struggles across his last three starts. It’s difficult to make a new assessment of him given how much the thin Colorado air affects pitchers, but it’s clear he hasn’t regained his efficiency, needing 96 pitches to complete four frames. That’s now four consecutive starts in which he’s failed to finish the fifth. He heads to the North Side next, and my wish list includes pulling off the BSB and returning strike rates north of 55% with all of his pitches, no exceptions. (View Game Card)
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) vs MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 110 pitches.
Live your life, T.I. Keep going BSB with mid-90s four-seamers and backward sliders 95% of the time across 110 pitches. It keeps working, so you do you, but I can’t believe in you until you start showing something to support the one-two punch. You can have whatever you like if you throw your splitters (or any third pitch) more than three times. Bring ’em out, bring ’em out, bring ’em out, bring ’em out! (View Game Card)
Zack Littell (WSN) vs SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
Littell fumbled around in his pocket long enough to feel his slider and splitter, pulling them out for a sub-2.00 ERA and 20% strikeout rate across his last four starts. This was so close to being a scoreless outing, but he opened the seventh with a walk, single, and double before getting the hook and watching from the sidelines as an inherited runner scored. Careful, Icarus. This is turning into a Vargas Rule, but I’m not feeling the itch to trust him @ARI next. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 80 pitches.
That’s a Golden Goal and a second consecutive Gallows Pole for Ashcraft, as he fanned a career-high 11 batters. He absolutely cooked with his breakers per usual, as they combined for 16 whiffs and 43% CSW, while four-seamers dominated LHBs for six whiffs and 42% CSW against them alone, and sinkers kept RHBs off his slider. Go dominate @ATL next, and Nick and I will be forced to consider your application for acehood. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 97 pitches.
It’s impressive that Kelly was able to strand so many baserunners, with the only two runs against him coming on a pair of solo shots. His preternatural ability to induce weakly hits grounders (62% ground balls, 67% weak contact) allows him to succeed when he deals with unsustainably low 17% putaway rates. The path is gorgeous with WSN, @MIA, and LAA up ahead. Enjoy the stroll through the woods and make sure to take a selfie in front of the waterfall. (View Game Card)
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs ATL (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 100 pitches.
Yessss! Lodolo maintained the feel for his secondaries, returning six whiffs and 66% strikes on changeups and curveballs, allowing him to survive into the seventh against Hotlanta in Great American Smallpark. This could’ve been even better if he didn’t launch so many four-seamers too far above the zone, leading to a 48% strike rate and four walks. Otherwise, Lodolo’s pitch separation was excellent, looking like that RGB venn diagram. That was the challenging start, and now he gets rewarded with @STL, ARI, and NYM. It’s ascension time! (View Game Card)
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
TB28 channeled his inner TB12, allowing a touchdown’s worth of hits and a field goal’s worth of runs for a PQS. This is what a good start from Bibee looks like, and if that doesn’t get you excited, that’s the point. The bad starts really make you appreciate the bare minimum. It’s dicey starting Bibee. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) @ WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 77 pitches.
The shape of Canning’s season has been a little frustrating. He got us excited with an improved fastball and changeup in his debut, only to flounder with 12 runs in his next two starts. Then we left him alone to face the gauntlet that was the Phillies and Dodgers. He made some sort of deal with the devil, allowing him to survive those starts at the cost of losing the arsenal that initially had us intrigued. Now that he’s on the other side and facing mediocre offenses, he’s not worth chasing because his stuff is bad. I’d rather he had gotten wrecked by the power houses and turned things around afterward. Oh well, that’s why you don’t make deals with the devil! (View Game Card)
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
It was a little risky sending Strider to Great American Smallpark, considering he hadn’t fully convinced us he’s trustworthy. Trust me, I got this. That’s what an untrustworthy person would say! Trust should be earned, not given. Strider rewarded those who trusted him with eight punchouts, but the ratios stung as he got Singled Out (.500 BABIP) with too many hittable heaters over the plate. His slider precision was excellent down and gloveside, resulting in six whiffs and 31% CSW. If he maintains that slider feel and can get back to pulling off the BSB with his heaters properly upstairs, he’ll saunter with long strides through PIT, @NYM, and SFG across the next couple of weeks. (View Game Card)
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ TBR (L) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 68 pitches.
How do you spell Kochanowicz? With one K! HAISTBMBWT?!. His command has been all over the place recently, resulting in a 9.27 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, and a sub-2% K-BB% across his past four starts. This is starting to become a consistent theme for Jackie K. It feels like I’m meeting him for the first time. Isn’t that right, Janet? You bet, Marty! Janet?! Marty?! WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE?! Marty, I’m scared! DING DONG! It’s the Dodgers next. You should be scared. (View Game Card)
Jordan Wicks (CHC) @ STL (L) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 49 pitches.
Wicks had great command with hittable heaters last time and earned a Gallows Pole despite getting crushed. Now his command is gone and he’s still hittable. He got Singled Out (literally all of the hits against him were singles) and didn’t have the whiffiability to end at-bats early (14% PAR), inflating his pitch count before he could settle in. I see the potential path to success for Wicks, but we don’t need to light that candle until he proves he can do it at least once. (View Game Card)
Ranger Suarez (BOS) @ CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 93 pitches.
We’ve been worried about Suarez as he hasn’t displayed his best command recently, has been missing his changeup all year, and lost his curveball last time out, making a date with the switch-hitter-heavy CLE lineup a real test of his arsenal depth. His changeup is still missing (10% usage for 44% strikes), but he found the curveball right where he left it. I don’t know why I didn’t look there first. The hook propelled the influx of strikeouts, enticing batters below the zone for eight whiffs and 46% CSW, while accounting for half of his strikeouts. His command of cutters and four-seamers allowed the curve to do its thing out of the zone, as cutters jammed RHBs and four-seamers went…away to LHBs? Oh, he didn’t have his slider (just two thrown), and his sinker was all over the place, forcing the four-seamer to step up against same-handed hitters. His fastball variants were hittable, and Koufax wasn’t on his side, leading to an absurd .667 BABIP. It was somewhat deserved, given he allowed 50% line drives and 58% hard contact on fastballs over the plate. However, the flip side of the coin of luck meant he was fortunate to produce a 77% PAR. There will be regression in both directions moving forward, as he’ll allow fewer hits and record fewer strikeouts, but with @NYY on the horizon, I don’t want to trust him without his best command and with his changeup still missing. (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) @ LAD (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
This was the real test as Painter had turned in a trio of productive outings after we collectively gave up on him. As expected, the Dodgers were too much for him, even with increased fastball velo, decent breakers, and splitters for strikes. You may point to the two solo shots that ended his night in the fourth and suggest that you can’t blame him for serving up dingers to All-Stars. That would be a good argument if the homers weren’t hit by rookies Ryan Ward and Alex Freeland. Sorry, we’re not buying this Painter’s artwork. (View Game Card)
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs SFG (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.
COL story bro. Gordon was the Rockies pitcher in Coors. Gordon is also the name of my great-uncle. I’m sorry these were the cards you were dealt. (View Game Card)
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
The last time Wacha’s hot streak came to an end, he got right back on track, so we should give him another shot @MIN next. After all, he maintained the 18″ of vert on his four-seamer, induced whiffs with low changeups, and made up for his unwieldy curveball with effective sliders. If he falters up north, we can take a break from Wacha. (View Game Card)
Spencer Miles (TOR) @ BAL (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
I want every pitcher to be dope, but sometimes I feel vindicated when a pitcher I think is overperforming finally performs as expected. A three-run homer in the third off a hittable middle-middle sinker with reduced velocity did him in. Those breakers aren’t enough to carry him. We’ll stay Miles away for now. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ PIT (L) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 100 pitches.
With success across his first three starts, Matthews had us second-guessing our initial assessments that his reduced velocity and diminished stuff weren’t suitable for instant Major League production. Well, would you look who shouldn’t have been doubting themselves! It’s that guy with the mustache I see in the mirror every day! He was a little bit Singled Out with a .500 BABIP, but his hittable heater found itself in the nitro zone too often, and he hung a pair of sliders, leading to a pair of homers accounting for three runs. It added insult to injury that his final two runs were inherited runners scoring after he was lifted in the fifth. We saw the ceiling, and now we’ve seen the floor. It’s a dirty floor, but it can be cleaned up if he can find the edges more often or recover the velo or pitch shapes he had last year. All hope is not lost, but KCR next is a questionable start. (View Game Card)
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs NYY (L) – 2.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 56 pitches.
We’re going to have to wait some time before we see Lopez given a chance to find the form that led him on an incredible second-half run last year. This start was so bad that the A’s optioned him to the minors afterward. Well, and all the starts before it, too. True. He has a 6.75 ERA and 2% K-BB% in 12 appearances this year. Let’s hope he comes back stronger than ever. We want the J-Lo that strikes out A-Rod, not the one that dated him. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Joe Ryan vs. Nick Sandlin – We get an ace facing a young pitcher looking to establish himself in his second big league start.
But Jake?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
