Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Stephen Kolek (KCR) vs HOU (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
I’ll put this simply: Stephen Kolek is a Vargas Rule you should have rostered in your 12-teamers. After cruising against the Astros on Sunday via 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches (W), he’s holding a 1.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in nearly 40 frames across his last six games, including the fatigued 4 ER outing in Texas after his 108 pitch CGSHO against the Mariners. Those numbers alone justify starting him against the Cardinals and back-to-back starts against the Rays, but you know me, it’s all about the mix and approach, not the box score.
That mix has the most common element you see in a Vargas Rule – a wide arsenal he can throw for strikes. Kolek’s pair of fastballs made up roughly 40% of his offerings against Houston, while sliders, sweepers, cutters, and changeups swirled the zone, each returning at least a 63% strike rate. The slider and sweeper aren’t anything special on the stuff spectrum, but he locates them well enough to RHB, while the cutter and changeup did their job to LHB as four-seamers avoided the heart of the plate. It’s not ground-breaking, but it works.
He’s in a groove at the moment and while it shouldn’t be this successful once the schedule gets tougher, as long as you follow the standard Toby rules when the time comes, you’ll be happy, even with his 17% strikeout rate. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Logan Webb (SFG) vs CHC (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 106 pitches.
Should Webb get the AGA tag again? That’s three starts of 7+ innings with just 1 ER since returning from the IL and you will not find a manager benching him next time out. That’s because it’s the Marlins. Fine, what about Atlanta after? Sure, they aren’t quite Hotlanta in their current state, but they’re still a strong offense. If Webb continues to be a stud through these next two, we’ll give him the tag. (View Game Card)
Miles Mikolas (WSH) vs SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
Okay, I HAVE to mention that this is Mikolas’ third game of zero ER in his last five, even if the two prior were 5.0 and 4.2 IP appearances. Oh, and he hasn’t eclipsed four strikeouts all season. But he’s sitting 1-2 ticks harder! And marked his second game in three with at least 6 IP! You mean the 6 ER game against the Marlins? Yeah! What are we doing here. (View Game Card)
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.
After the nightmare that is Vegas, it’s lovely to see Harrison produce and eradicate your fears. But just three strikeouts and his four-seamer + curveball command is spotty. You’re right – that heater is finding itself in the bottom half of the zone a ton lately, while the changeup that got so many hyped was featured just twice across the game, good for 5% usage to RHB. This isn’t peak Harrison and now he’ll get a true test in Atlanta up next. I’m awfully curious what we get. (View Game Card)
Erick Fedde (CHW) vs LAD (W) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 58 pitches.
Huh. The White Sox elected to throw a number of pitchers before Fedde and I think it’s wise that they are moving away from him in the rotation. It sure seems as though Fedde will get ousted in the near future when Schultz is healthy + Hagan is ready to go. (View Game Card)
Max Meyer (MIA) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 105 pitches.
At what point do I give the AGA tag to Meyer? Since he steadily returned iVB marks above 16″ on his four-seamer in the middle of April, Meyer has allowed more than 2 ER just twice, holding a 2.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28% strikeout rate, and a 6-0 record across eleven games, just under an average of six innings per start. Here’s the catch: His four-seamer vert this game was just 16.1″ – the lowest it’s been since April 14th. The result was 0/24 whiffs and thankfully, the breakers were on point to make up for it. If I see the vert return next time out, I think I’m down to grant him the label, even if it’s against the Giants, with the Rangers + Coors after. (View Game Card)
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
Here’s another mini-stretch that could have been productive for many of you that I absolutely dismissed (and still do) – that’s a 2.92 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 19% strikeout rate in seven games for Buehler. He’s using more sinkers to both LHB and RHB while reducing his breakers and changeups, leaning on the cutter as his mix-up pitch. You’re telling me he’s going Ras Pack?! Kinda, yeah. Well, the slider was used a bit more here with more depth than usual, but that’s really an extension of the cutter and he’s commanding that offering incredibly well to RHB. It’s truly strange to me, but maybe this is something he can keep going against the Rangers in Arlington. Hard to believe, isn’t it? He’s just so…boring. (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (NYM) vs ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 90 pitches.
You will take this all day after seeing Professor Chaos for so long. This is the second game all season where Peralta has held a WHIP of 1.00 or lower and despite the low strikeout total (thanks to a terrible 7% putaway rate on his offerings, yeesh), we are thrilled about this. His four-seamer is also back to 95 mph, too. Let’s keep it going against the Phils and hope we get better locations for more than six whiffs next time out. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.
It’s not pretty, but once again, Abbott has helped, for the ninth straight start. That’s a 2.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 11% walk rate in that time. No, I don’t want to test this against the Yankees. (View Game Card)
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
Ayyyy, it worked! This is a bit of Blame it on the Padres given their struggles against LHP, but Rogers did execute the BSB to RHB beautifully, featuring 93 mph heaters upstairs + changeups down and in town. Unfortunately, it’s the Dodgers next, but what I’d do is leave him on the wire, see if he’s executing effectively, and pick him up after if it sticks and it wasn’t a complete disaster. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a Golden Goal as he makes the conversation of “who is SP #1?” a little more interesting. Does Jay Mis deserve it? Without a doubt. The thing is, we are trying to determine the next three months, not reward the previous two. That’s ridiculous, we can only use the information we have! Well, exactly. Skenes has been a stud for a much longer time, without a single health hiccup, and has produced elite results, too. Is that enough? We’ll see. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
McGreevy should open his own pastry shop in an attic, featuring this specific brand of Dusty Donut. (View Game Card)
Will Warren (NYY) @ TOR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 98 pitches.
Blegh. Warren has been able to keep his head above water despite the lack of secondary dominance, and the issue here wasn’t fastball strikes, but rather his inability to put batters away with his four-seamer, where Jays batters fouled off 35% of them, stealing from its typically high whiff count. That prolonged at-bats, creating more hits and walks, and that’s your ball game. If Warren had more in the tank to mix it up, such as a sweeper that returned better than 1/17 whiffs or a changeup that doesn’t disappoint at 1/7 strikes, then it would prevent games like these. Treat this game as an exhibition for his floor on the WHIP/strikeout side (2 ER is a masterful display of mitigating damage) and keep him in the lineup. (View Game Card)
Patrick Corbin (TOR) vs NYY (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
Corbin did what he could and I applaud him for it. In all honesty, given the state of the Jays’ rotation, I see this as an absolute Win. He kept them in the game for nearly four frames, that’s helpful, right? (View Game Card)
Ian Seymour (TB) @ LAA (L) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.
The Rays used an opener, but I’m happy to see Seymour continuing to stretch out from sub-30 pitches a game to three straight appearances of 40, 55, and now 72 pitches. It’s the best evidence of Tampa Bay’s intention to let Seymour become a proper starter, which is more important than the lackluster results here. Speaking of which, Seymour’s changeup was horribly commanded, but managed to miss a ton of bats (7/24 whiffs is phenomenal), masking the poor strike rates across every other offering. It’s not a major worry (he has a long enough track record of better precision) and I’d consider him a 15-teamer add against the Nationals on Saturday. I’m a little cautious for 12-teamers as a streamer since we don’t know what the usage ceiling is for Seymour at the moment. Will he exceed 80 pitches or is this like Jax where the Rays will keep him around 70 pitches? I’d prefer to hold off against the Nationals and reconsider for the Royals 2x after. (View Game Card)
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs TBR (ND) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 47 pitches.
Grayson left this one early with a back injury. Womp womp. You really shouldn’t hold onto him. (View Game Card)
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
I’m absolutely floored that Eovaldi has allowed at least 3 ER in each of his last five starts, even if this one was a result of two solo shots off Contreras’ bat. He also has a 1.19 WHIP to go with his 5.23 ERA, which should tell you how unlucky he’s been during this stretch. That said, it isn’t peak Eovaldi command and I do wonder if I’m a little too high on my expectations for the ERA to shrink closer to 3.00 over time + the massive track record of injury-shortened seasons. (View Game Card)
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
He gave you some value! It’s a PQS without a Win and four strikeouts, which…wait. If you’re not in a QS league, that’s not very helpful at all. Sigh. (View Game Card)
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) @ CHW (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
When you’re not having stupid high pitch counts early in the game, good things can happen. We love seeing 95 mph on his heater and five pristine innings with just two baserunners. We hate seeing a Careful, Icarus with a HR and two hits to lead off the frame and kick him out of the game. Yes, that 0-2 four-seamer could have been out of the zone for the solo shot, and the two-subsequent hits weren’t the best pitches of his night. And yet, this is the skillset we like to see from Sheehan. Rest easier. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs STL (ND) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 101 pitches.
It’s certainly better, but the command is still heavily suspect. He’s a HIPSTER who could go on another great stretch, or disappoint even against the Sneks and Rockie Road. If you’re in need of strikeouts, they will be here and maybe it’s a dent you need to take. (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ KCR (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.
I anticipated an increase of sweepers from the Pasta Pirate annnnd we didn’t get them. Well, that’s not completely fair. We did see them early, but he pulled back given obvious struggles (4/11 strikes overall), and that obviously doesn’t work. He’s still too scatterplot for my tastes to buy into a proper breakout (and still heavily two-pitch with fastball/curve), and I find it strange how Arrighetti continues to resist opening up the arsenal as he had in 2024. Unleash the cannons! (View Game Card)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ MIL (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna blegh. The List curse is real! His sinker traditionally gets away with its locations over the plate, but Koufax had different plans in this one, returning 6/10 sinkers in play for hits. Yeeeesh. That’s separate from the terrible 1-0 slider to Perkins that was blasted for a three-run shot in the fourth, ultimately tanking the start for fantasy managers. It’s a One Night Bland, whatareyagonnado. (View Game Card)
Colin Rea (CHC) @ SFG (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
The Cubs went with an opener and it worked until the fifth, where Rea allowed a single, RBI double, and two-run HR, before loading the bases on two walks and HBP. He escaped phew, but all hope for a productive night went out the window in a heartbeat. He’s still a streaming option moving forward with the Jays and Mets up next, but not one I’d circle. Okay, maybe the Mets. (View Game Card)
Connelly Early (BOS) vs TEX (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh no. This was rough. It was a solo shot on his first pitch of the game, a three-run bomb on a decent 1-0 changeup away, and some aspects that were the fury of Koufax and others that were a product of a pitcher failing to make all the parts come together seamlessly. My high rankings of Early may be too aggressive, given his potential has more in the recipe than the Holly results of a 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate before this game, and after a game like this, I’m sure to get some ire. It’s difficult as I’ve seen improvement – Early had returned four straight games of at least 12 whiffs after failing to do so once prior this season in all nine starts – but not the stellar results, and now going five whiffs among a ghastly outing is sure to put him in the “you gotta prove it” box. With @TEA, NYY, and WSH on the docket, I’d personally start him in Seattle, likely sit against the Yankees, and take it from there. (View Game Card)
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs COL (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 77 pitches.
Vegas is a brutal place. Hard to find sunshine and rainbows there, especially for someone who has now allowed 4 ER in five of his last seven games. (View Game Card)
Bryce Elder (ATL) @ NYM (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 75 pitches.
Uh oh. Did no one tell him it was the Mets? Elder’s command was terrible, with just 2/10 strikes on his cutter, a 44% strike rate four-seamer, and LHB had a field day swatting whatever he threw their way. Yes, Koufax was to blame for some of those, but then again, the bamboozlin’ in the first of 4 ER and the struggles that followed are kinda typical of a guy with Elder’s stuff. He’ll get the MIL, @SFG, STL next and you do what you feel is right. I’m out, personally. (View Game Card)
Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ WSN (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 59 pitches.
Blegh. Hancock has shifted from his four-seamer focus to sinkers galore (+21% usage to 46% overall!) and it isn’t working out so well for him. It doesn’t help that his breakers went 0/5 strikes, with cutters doing little at 2/5, but the whole season is just so strange. Has Hancock lowered his arm angle with every start? His four-seamer vert is now even lower at 6.2″ and I don’t quite understand why he’s transitioned this way after looking so good early in the season. We have to hold for now – hosting Boston in Seattle as a RHP is the perfect cushion for a rebound – but it truly is strange. (View Game Card)
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) @ ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 97 pitches.
If you rolled the dice with Sugano, remember the house always wins in Vegas. I was really pulling for him after going five straight of 2 or 3 ER allowed. So you started him? Oh absolutely not. I just root for the little victories, you know? But seriously, I’m so glad these Vegas games are over. For now. Don’t remind me. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Jared Jones vs. J.T. Ginn – Will Jones be able to handle Sacré Verde? Is Ginn truly figuring it out?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
