Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Zach Thornton (NYM) vs BOS (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
It’s the middle of July, and all the stars are set to converge on one special night, akin to a climactic moment in that fantasy novel you read long ago. In fantasy baseball land, it means we take a moment to get our troops in shape for the second half, recognizing what we need to do and if we are truly capable of making a push this season. During this time, you may find yourself needing a little extra inside the rotation, and with Zach Thornton confirmed for the Mets rotation post-break after his stellar 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches (ND) outing against the Red Sox, you’re wondering if he’s the peg for the hole.
It’s possible, but it doesn’t quite add up in my book. Thornton’s southpaw approach isn’t familiar to his SWATCH peers, leaning heavily on 92 mph four-seamers with 18-19″ vert (but an extreme 49-degree arm angle that nullifies most of it) and instead of a dastardly changeup, he pairs it with an 86/87 mph cutter that changes its shape from “hard” at 87-89 mph and 8-12″ vert, all the way down to -2″ vert at 81-84 mph. I think they are two different pitches, Nick. Yeah, probably, but he blends them heavily that it’s hard to get clarity, making it all one big ol’ pitch.
There were some sweepers, three changeups, and a sole sinker in there, too, but this was a four-seamer/cutter game with a plan to avoid the barrel and get into the dugout quickly. That means low strikeouts should follow against RHB-focused lineups (sweepers work well to LHB, but typically teams are equipped to send lineup cards stacked with RHB), with a heavy reliance on Koufax on a given night. This is all assuming this is the approach we’ll routinely see.
We’re not sure what the rotation order will be when we exit the break, but if it follows what we saw before it, Thornton would get his next start in Milwaukee on July 21st, then host Atlanta on the 27th. I’m not thrilled about either one, but there’s a chance he can mess up enough batters with his cutters to carve another six decent frames. Do what you must. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. That’s a 2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate with a 10-1 record through fifteen games. What an unreal season post-TOS. Unheard of. You know, if he keeps this up through the second half and something happens to Jay Mis, this could be Wheeler’s first Cy Young award… (View Game Card)
Emerson Hancock (SEA) @ TBR (ND) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 19 pitches.
Hancock was removed early in this one after taking a comebacker to the hand against his first batter (why would you try to barehand it?!) and after walking Mesa Jr., in the second, it was affecting him too much to carry on. It comes at the perfect time – ASB for extra rest – and X-rays were negative. He could still make his next outing against the Reds. Fun fact: He raised his vert back to 9/10″ instead of 7″ across the last month. JUST SAYIN’. (View Game Card)
Trevor McDonald (SFG) vs COL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 73 pitches.
Blame it on the Rockie Road. This wasn’t the return of McDonald’s breaker to its classic form, even if it had a 41% CSW across the seventeen he threw. Nay, this was the Rockies taking all the sinkers for strikes or smacking them into gloves + a better changeup than usual to LHB. Don’t get carried away. (View Game Card)
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs ARI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.
These are the results we should be getting from Sheehan and that’s three straight of just 4 ER combined (yes, including his 4.1 IP outing last game). No reason to not keep rolling him out there, unless you genuinely believe his 4.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP are who he is. In that case, we’ll just agree to disagree. (View Game Card)
Will Warren (NYY) @ WSN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
On one hand, I love that he’s still down to clown with his 23% changeup usage to LHB (I wish it were 30-35%, but he didn’t have his best feel for it). On the other, his fastball feel was way off and it was a laborious time, even if the line doesn’t show it. I think it’s wise to bench against the Dodgers, then start him against the Phillies after. (View Game Card)
Noah Schultz (CHW) vs ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 74 pitches.
Huh. I saw the results and expected to find cutters inside to RHB with pitches playing off them, but instead it was a smattering of fastballs and sweepers away, with cutters and changeups all over the place. But it was a successful start! I know! The Athletics couldn’t handle a whole lot of what Schultz was serving, save for one terrible cutter middle and slightly down to Langeliers, who blasted it into oblivion out of the park. It wasn’t the greatest showcase of command that convinces me to grab him for @TEX, HOU, @TBR up next, but I see him as a Toby at best at the moment. It’s possible this is good enough. (View Game Card)
Michael Lorenzen (COL) @ SFG (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Even in Oracle Park, it’s a Gold Star for Lorenzen because the man doesn’t get to celebrate a Birthday Party often. Gotta embrace the little things. (View Game Card)
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 85 pitches.
The curveball is still on full blast, the four-seamer was taken for an unreal 39% called strike rate, and the changeup was the most successful it’s been all year at 11/31 whiffs. That’s HOT. Hot enough for a Golden Goal and all our confidence entering the second half with his velocity gains still very much intact. This is the good stuff. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) vs KCR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.
Whoaaa BABY. Yeah yeah yeah, I wish he got through one more out, too, but nine punchouts with 19 whiffs is DOPE. All five pitches earned at least two, with heaters getting a tick extra vert and sneaking past LHB upstairs + the curveball buried itself into the dirt plenty to both sides of the plate. The stupid high 36% foul ball rate on his heater is to blame for both the early hook and the high strikeout rate – those are typically balls in play that propelled or maintained two-strike counts, with nearly half of his pitches to LHB coming in two-strike counts as a result. I don’t think this whiff count is here to stay, nor the 73% two-strike rate (typically 50%), so don’t get any ideas that Baz is more than a 20% strikeout-rate arm in the second half. (View Game Card)
JR Ritchie (ATL) @ STL (L) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 61 pitches.
We saw Ritchie with an opener and he nearly had himself the dub if not for a single to lead off the sixth that led to the tying run after the quick hook – the only hit he allowed on the day. Interesting to see him go Dancing With The Disco via the curveball this time around (54% curves to RHB at 14/15 strikes?!), while the changeup hung its head with 0/6 strikes on the game. Daaaang, isn’t that supposed to be his best pitch? Yuuup. It’s a legit two-plane hook at 83+ mph and I love this new direction for him, but he needs that changeup for LHB. I may take an interest if the curveball affinity sticks and the changeup feel returns. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) @ NYM (ND) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 66 pitches.
Whoa, I didn’t expect Tolle to start this one, but I guess they treated it like his bullpen to open for Brayan Bello, who returned from the minors and pitched well: 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 55 pitches. With Tolle, it was the standard four-seamer & slider (not a cutter dangit!), which both returned a 31% SwStr rate because of course they did. Seven strikeouts and 18 whiffs ion 66 pitches, y’all. That’s bonkers. And yet, the real story is Bello, who didn’t look the same. We’re seeing more drop on everything and a major swap of sweepers for sinkers against RHB, which I’m all for, now that the sweeper has gained four inches of sweep with barely a change in velocity. I’ll take that all day. This is a better version of Bello than before his demotion, but it was a small sample against the Mets. He could make his next appearance against the Orioles on July 20th and that may be worthwhile in your 15-teamers. (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs HOU (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 65 pitches.
It was a surprise start due to deGrom’s injury and I didn’t anticipate a proper outing given Gore’s short rest. He didn’t showcase a whole lot outside of four-seamers and cutters over the plate enough to generate outs, and I’m still at a loss to read the tea leaves for the second half. He’s not dominating with his arsenal and displaying a proper step forward, though the talent is there to have a glorious run if he makes the right tweak. I say you’re better off not chancing it if you don’t have to. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 99 pitches.
That’s five in a row for Bradley, with another game of excellent strike rates across all three main pitches. You know me, I’m not going to declare him a clear-cut start the rest of the way, but we roll with him indefinitely until he’s clearly lost it, and yes, he will at some point. He always does. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
This is a great outing for Cavalli in the box score. However, it wasn’t quite the dominance we saw against the Red Sox. Just 1/22 whiffs on breakers at their still-elite-but-absurd 85 mph velocity, and his four-seamer didn’t come close to the same excellence, but the cutter is still very much a thing and I’m a big fan of that. As long as the cutter is around for 15% usage (35% for the rare RHB batter), it creates the much-needed back-pocket offering to get him out of poor at-bats. It means I’m still favorable toward Cade over the version I saw across the first three months or so, but not quite as hyped as I was after his time in Fenway. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs MIL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
Aces gonna have his lowest four-seamer velocity of the season at 96.1 mph. Sigh. I really didn’t want to give in to the discourse, but it’s undeniable that something is up with Skenes. Maybe he’s saving bullets? More likely, there’s something wrong with him. And yet, he’s still putting up a stud season with just two poor outings across his last nine. (View Game Card)
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a co-share of the Gallows Pole. He’s killing it with high heaters and the deadly changeup again, so let’s imagine he never had his former injury, eh? We also saw Keider Montero appear for 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 58 pitches, and even with a tough sixth, he’s still showing he can handle a rotation spot if needed. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
He wasn’t efficient enough to make it worthwhile and we’re looking at just one all-around good outing since May 18th. You go where Lugo ain’t. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (STL) vs ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 84 pitches.
Blegh. His other outings were more encouraging than this one, which had far more feel for his sweeper and cutter. Atlanta isn’t an easy day at the park though, and I’m starting him on the road against the Angels up next. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs CLE (L) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 26 pitches.
He started on short rest and was pulled after just a frame in this bullpen game. (View Game Card)
Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
We’ll take this Bailey Special from Gausman after some concerns across the last month. It ain’t pretty, but it’s 95 mph four-seamers earning strikes with whiffable splitters. That’s Gausman. (View Game Card)
José Soriano (LAA) @ MIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.
Wow, two walks and zero strikeouts?! HAISTBMBWT?! Is he really worth the hold anymore? If you just knew his 2025 season and ignored everything before April 28th, he’d be a guy you don’t like for your 12-teamers at all. In fact, after starting the year with just 1 ER total, he’s had just two starts across his last fourteen with 1 or 0 ER. He’s not that guy anymore. (View Game Card)
Germán Márquez (SDP) vs TOR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yeaaaaah, there has to be a better option than Márquez, even if he was sitting up a tick here. Did you forget it was 5.5 feet of extension? (View Game Card)
Mitch Bratt (ARI) @ LAD (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 9% CSW, 58 pitches.
Second time we’ve seen Bratt and you don’t need to track when it’s a third. 91 mph heaters from the left side without a changeup or confident secondary. We also saw 1-3 ticks down on his arsenal since the debut. Nooope. (View Game Card)
Cristian Javier (HOU) @ TEX (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 60 pitches.
I’m not surprised Javier was limited given his time in the pen and it was full pen through the ninth. I don’t expect it to be a transition to the rotation and he’s still at 92/93 mph, not flirting with 94 mph. (View Game Card)
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ CIN (W) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.
This was just a poor third inning capped by a two-run shot. Otherwise, four-seamers and changeups led the way per usual, and the breakers were fine. It’s Boyd. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 79 pitches.
Blegh. It wasn’t so far off from the standard Abbott skill set, but he left a pair of sweepers over the plate twice to Busch, and his four-seamer didn’t come through when he needed it. It’s the same fella and that could be fine @TEA and @STL. (View Game Card)
Ian Seymour (TBR) vs SEA (L) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.
Womp womp. He had returned 27 strikeouts in three starts, but failed to come close to the same ability to miss bats on his main three of fastballs, sweepers, and changeups. Simply put, not his best. Fortunately, he’ll get the Sawx next and I think it’s still worth the play after his stretch. He’s better than this. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) @ PIT (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 58 pitches.
Yikes. He was a surprise starter after the Brewers elected to give Jay Mis extra rest due to fatigue. I love seeing him try to make the changeup work to RHB (21% usage! is double his 10% mark typically seen against RHB!), but it wasn’t successful. I don’t see it as his true self, and it’s possible it’s better against the Mets but…meh. I’d wait for his upside to fully materialize. (View Game Card)
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ CHW (L) – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 86 pitches.
Oh jeez. The velocity is still falling and he was bamboozled for two HRs in the first + another tough frame in the fifth. But 18 whiffs! 36% CSW! Yeah, it was cool watching the changeup and slider do work, but I simply don’t have faith in the sinker getting the job done. It’s very possible it’s a blip and he can become a QS arm again post-break, but he pitches in Sacré Verde, of course, and it’s not worth the risk. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
ALL-STAR BREAK – Enjoy the All-Star game, y’all. I’ll keep nursing my Achilles tear in the meantime.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
