Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Clay Holmes (CHC) vs STL (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Some pitchers are perfect fits for certain teams. The trade deadline creates some matches made in heaven. Pitchers with untapped potential heading to analytically advanced franchises. Homer prone pitchers finding a new home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Ground ball pitchers joining a club with elite defense.
The Cubs acquired one of baseball’s premier worm killers when they traded for Clay Holmes. Putting the grounder-addicted Holmes in front of baseball’s finest defense was a no-brainer. Among qualified pitchers since 2021, Holmes has the second-highest ground ball rate in baseball. Over the past four years, the Cubs defense has led MLB in OAA, while leading in DRS for the past two years.
On Friday, we got a glimpse into the utopia these soulmates conceived. The Adobe hosted the rival Cardinals, tossing 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches (W). As expected, it was a dirty baseball party, as Holmes induced 67% ground balls, while his teammates fulfilled their half of the bargain, scooping up everything to allow him to record 17 outs on 18 balls in play. Should we be thanking Koufax, or do the circumstances make this a sustainable approach?
I’m, surprisingly, leaning toward the latter assertion. We’ve seen the Cubs get the most out of pitch-to-contact arms like Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, Colin Rea, and most notably, Kyle Hendricks. Holmes arguably has better stuff than all of those guys, and he’s already proven he can excel for long stretches even with a notably inferior Mets defense backing him up (12th in DRS, 21st in OAA during Holmes’ tenure).
Don’t expect a high ceiling. Holmes is not someone who’s going to rack up a boatload of strikeouts. He’s fanned more than six just three times in his career (42 starts), and has recorded a single-digit swinging-strike rate across the past two years. However, you can count on his heavy sinker to stay low in the zone to steal plenty of called strikes while inducing an outsized amount of ground balls for Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch to gobble up. Is it an oxymoron to call Holmes an elite Toby the rest of the way? I’d be downloading him onto deep league fantasy rosters and considering him one of the safest streaming options in standard leagues moving forward. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Chase Burns (CIN) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. There go my concerns about his career-high workload leading to fatigue. Burns completed seven frames for just the second time this year, displaying both stamina and efficiency. The velo is back above 98 mph, and the BSB is being pulled off. We’re all good ya’ll! (View Game Card)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ ATL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
This Vargas Rule won’t end until the Pfaadt lady sings. Pfaadt completed seven shutout innings for the third time in his last four games. The one start where he didn’t? 6.2 innings with one unearned run. Unreal results from a guy so reliant on Koufax, giving him the kind of high five that turns heads. How can you say that when he struck out a season-high seven batters with a season-high 13 whiffs? Totally fair point. It’s a 1.15 ERA and 0.88 WHIP since returning to the rotation, despite a 14% strikeout rate. This is the peak. He needs his best command and some good fortune in two-strike counts to reach it. The approach – pristine changeups low and armside, four-seamers upstairs, curveballs falling below the zone, and cutters gloveside with sweepers handling RHB – is clearly working. Let’s ride this hot streak as long as it lasts and jump off as soon as it shows signs of being shut down. (View Game Card)
Robert Stock (NYM) vs WSN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 84 pitches.
I can totally see this surprise return to the Majors working for one of my favorite social media users, but with his velo falling a couple of ticks, it gets harder to believe in. When I say I could see this working, I’m talking about the deepest of leagues. The improved stuff and flat arm angle are conversation starters. We need to see Stock display a consistent ability to unleash it correctly and efficiently to survive five frames before we invest any roster spots in leagues 15 teams and shallower. (View Game Card)
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ SFG (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Dude, Kyle, you gotta tell us ahead of time so we can plan our days around your Birthday Party. Sorry guys. It snuck up on me too. There’s something different about Freeland this August. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in three outings, the first of which lasted nine frames and the second with a hook in the fifth. Late-season success has been a constant throughout Freeland’s career. His splits exhibit a clear negative correlation between his ERA and the later months. 5.16 ERA in April, but a 5.72 mark in May, 4.75 in June, 4.39 in July, and 4.27 in August, culminating in his best months of the year: September/October (4.07 ERA). Imagine if he got to pitch in the postseason. Oh, he has! 6.2 shutout innings in 2018. No way! Freeland’s clearly a guy who likes to get into a rhythm. He’s in one right now, but is it enough to help us forget that he’s allowed the second most runs (84) in MLB this year? Definitely not when he hosts the Dodgers in Coors next. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ CIN (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 103 pitches.
Alcantara’s scoreless streak concluded at 25.2 frames, and he nearly made it a fourth-straight scoreless start, but a two-out double in the sixth spat on his shutout. Like a toddler eating spaghetti, it was very messy. Twice as many walks as strikeouts, three of which came in full counts, as he struggled to put batters away (12% putaway rate). I’ll blame his inability to get batters to chase his changeup and his unwillingness to throw sliders in two-strike counts. I implore you to keep starting the man with a sub-2.50 ERA since the start of June and a sub-2.00 ERA since the beginning of July. (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a King Cole. Did somebody say I forgot how to strike batters out? I didn’t use those words exactly, but yeah, that was me. How do you like me now?! The same amount. I’ve never doubted your ability. I just recognized that you’re not a near 30% strikeout rate arm like you were last year. Not that there’s anything wrong with that! We love your pristine ratios and increased win opportunities, Yoshi. (View Game Card)
Shane Bieber (TOR) vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 84 pitches.
I find it so hard to make a decision on pitchers like this. They get me all excited, then go and betray me with a start that suggests my faith in them was unwarranted, only to bounce back and dominate with a wry smile and a wink. Maybe that’s a lack of confidence in my initial assessment that allows results to cloud my judgement. Maybe it’s just the fluctuations of luck in this chaotic sport. Maybe it’s the randomness of small sample sizes that make pitcher analysis cloudy regardless of how established the arm is. I want to believe in the Bieber resurgence, but sub-60% overall strikes indicates a lack of command that manifested in center-cut four-seamers, curveballs eating dirt, and chaotic changeups. He somehow walked just one and served up solely a solo shot, despite the lack of command and swing-and-miss. I can’t trust him @TBR next. So, of course, watch him go out there and get it done again. (View Game Card)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) @ TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Cole’s avoiding the heart of the zone, but it’s not coming with the elite precision that leads us to proclaim his return to premier acedom. He’s still dope, but until sliders land low and gloveside with four-seamers thriving upstairs, I’ll continue to view him as a diminished version of his former self. Still an ace, but not the otherworldly talent in the conversation of the best starters in baseball. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. What did you expect? He’s dominated all year, and it’s not stopping any time soon. This could’ve been historic if not for a ridiculous 31% foul ball rate (33 total foul balls) that prevented him from inducing even more whiffs, racking up even more strikeouts, and pitching even deeper into the game. He’s dope and makes you feel dope for rostering him. (View Game Card)
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) @ NYM (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
I feel like one of my grandma’s friends when I say, “Who is this man?! I barely recognize you, all grown up!” After completing five frames just once in his first 15 outings, Alvarez has done so in each of his last three starts since returning from the minors. It’s not a result of a higher pitch count, as he’s averaged just 76 pitches in that trio of starts. He’s just been more efficient. Isn’t that just another way of saying he’s been luckier? Yep! You can thank Koufax for the 40 outs he’s returned on 48 balls in play in August. His breakers are cool, but the heaters aren’t, and there’s no way this is lasting much longer. (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ CHC (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
A Gallows Pole?! From Liberatore?! This is the first time the southpaw has won any sort of PL award. He did something he should’ve done a long time ago: cut back on fastballs (-11% four-seamer usage, -6% sinker usage, -2% cutter usage) to feature more breakers. Curveballs were thrown 11% more often (to 27% usage), and induced six whiffs and 35% CSW. Sliders were not only thrown 11% more often as well (to 35% usage), but they also gained 3-4″ of drop, allowing them to dominate to the tune of seven whiffs, 42% CSW, and 72% strikes. Hooks and slowballs combined for just 39% strikes, but that’s why you don’t stop throwing the fastballs altogether. Something’s gotta stick around to prop up the strike rate and keep batters honest. This is the most confident I’ve ever been in Liberatore, but it’ll take one more outing with this new approach returning excellent results for me to ignore his awful ratios. His next start @CIN will be one to keep an eye on. (View Game Card)
Chris Bassitt (BAL) @ TBR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.
Having spent the last two-plus months on the IL following surgery to remove bone spurs from his back, Bassitt was rightfully rusty. Considering the circumstances, this wasn’t half bad. It’s the same kitchen sink approach that we’re used to. The same that made him a Toby not worth rostering when he was healthy? That’s the one! (View Game Card)
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
It’s funny trying to put into words what makes pitchers like Chandler (and the aforementioned Bieber) so frustrating, only to remember that Nick has done this for years and has a whole database of terms describing exactly what takes me an entire blurb to explain. Chandler’s volatile, unpredictable, and generally unrosterable performances are the qualities of a HIPSTER. The man finds something that works, but once it becomes popular (i.e. people get excited), he switches things up or watches his success wane to force him to try something new. I’m all for doing unique things that make you feel like a special and individual person, but not when it’s just for the sake of not doing what everyone else does. Are you speaking to Bubba or yourself? Yes. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Unlike Adam Lambert’s final American Idol performance, a change is not gonna come to Peter’s labels. The guy is a Holly through and through. It’s a glorious thing. He digs into his bag of tricks to pull out a trio of pitches every start that can get the job done. It was the four-seamer (38% CSW), changeup (four whiffs), and sinker (77% strikes) on Friday. Next time it may be the sweeper joining the fray. Or the cutter. Or the curveball. Or th- you get the point. (View Game Card)
Jesse Scholtens (TBR) vs BAL (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 64 pitches.
We’re back to Scholtens pitching as a bulk reliever. Please hold your applause until the end of the blurb. Steven Matz opened with a scoreless frame, and Scholtens took it from there, turning to splitters as his primary offering while showcasing a new “slider” that is definitely now a cutter at nearly 90 mph with 10″ iVB and -3″ iHB. If you’re looking to vulture a win at some point over the next few weeks, here’s your guy. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) @ LAD (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 102 pitches.
You throw those cutters, Bobby! They were the star of the show with +17% usage to 34%, overshadowing the success of changeups. We’ve been waiting forever for that pitch to thrive! The slowball induced seven whiffs and 50% CSW, giving him a reliable putaway pitch vs RHB. If not for solo shots in the fifth and sixth, we’d be singing Gasser’s praises for starring in Hollywood. This is the step in the right direction we needed to consider streaming him vs Hotlanta next. I’ll have him in the Questionable Start tier. (View Game Card)
Michael King (SDP) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.
The King hath not returned, but his command hath. His four main offerings each eclipsed 66% strikes and landed in their respective quadrants against a LHB-only lineup. The pristine command was around last time too, but even at his best, this was merely a VPQS. He may need to live out of the zone more than he did here to induce the whiffs he was so desperately lacking. The command has me confident enough to flip the coin on this Cherry Bomb @NYM next. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) vs TEX (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 K – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 101 pitches.
Maybe we shouldn’t have used all of our Ks in our last start? HAISTBMBWT?! This is gonna be a difficult blurb to write without a complete alphabet. Jump was surviving with some help from the baseball gods before it all fell apart in the sixth, culminating in a three-run homer. Careful, Icarus. He’s way too unpredictable at the moment. He’s not guaranteed to blow up in Sacramento, but he’s also not a sure thing to succeed on the road. He’s not guaranteed to fan enough batters to maintain our happiness, but he’s also capable of coaxing smiles by eclipsing double-digit punchouts. It screams HIPSTER and Cherry Bomb to me, despite the clear upside. Look, ma, no Ks! (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
The Rockerstar jammed out with his slide guitar, but couldn’t find the right backing track to make it all come together. Seven whiffs on sliders with pristine locations low and gloveside. Everything else? Zero whiffs and sub-50% strikes. This wasn’t just a product of Sacré Verde (he actually didn’t give up a single homer). There’s a lot of work to do here, and I’m already working overtime. Give the man a break with the Nationals on the horizon. (View Game Card)
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs KCR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
There was some intrigue that GrayRod might be figuring it out when his breakers actually showed up to support his fastball-changeup combo, but they went back into hiding on Friday. Sliders and curveballs were thrown less than a quarter of the time despite recording 43% CSW, as he doesn’t trust them against LHB. The command wasn’t there (52% strikes), so I sort of don’t blame him, but let them do a bit more so your fastball can play up and act as the strike pitch rather than the whiff pitch it’s struggled to be this year due to its Empty Velocity. I see the path to success featuring secondaries more than heaters, but I don’t trust the Angels to get the most out of an already frustrating pitcher. (View Game Card)
José Urquidy (CHW) @ DET (W) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 52 pitches.
After a five-month stint in the minors, Urquidy is back, pitching in bulk relief of opener Sean Newcomb. There was once a time when he was a breakout candidate. With a decently shaped four-seamer displaying increased velocity combined with an effective changeup, I see what got people interested in the past. If his breakers can become more consistent to return more than the 53% strikes they earned on Friday, I could see him being a risky win play. For now, we avoid and hope that the White Sox give one of their plethora of young starters a chance in the rotation. (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs COL (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
Even Rockie Road wasn’t enough to cure Roupp’s walk issues. That’s a 14% walk rate (and just an 18% strikeout rate) across his last eight starts after running a 9% mark (and a 26% strikeout rate) through his first 16 starts. With excellent pitch separation and an avoidance of the heart of the zone, I’m curious why his overall command has been so much worse. I’ll remain adamant that he’s a tweak away from returning to domination, but it may be best to give him a break in Cleveland next. (View Game Card)
Jake Bennett (BOS) @ PIT (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.
C’mon Jake, you’re tarnishing the name! The Pirates aren’t even good against southpaws! There is a very promising silver lining to this terrible line – his command has returned. We saw elite pitch separation as he pulled off the BSB with four-seamers and changeups about as best as you could hope for. It had been missing recently, leading to a stark downturn in performance. Having added a tick of velo as well, my faith in streaming Bennett has returned. Let’s take the chance that the command sticks, allowing him to take down the Sneks next. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ LAA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
Nothing like botched surgery! This surgeon should take a break to focus on his precision. (View Game Card)
George Kirby (SEA) @ HOU (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 99 pitches.
Kirby is just unable to maximize the potential of his arsenal. Sweepers failed to coax chases or find the zone, leading to 55% strikes. Great, let’s throw them as our primary pitch. Sinkers failed to miss bats and avoid damage. Dope, let’s make them our #2 offering. Four-seamers get a pass, but curveballs? They were actually dope with 44% CSW, falling below the zone for a trio of whiffs, or buying up free real estate for four called strikes. Maybe they’re only successful as a surprise pitch, but maybe try throwing your best pitch on a night more often than 16% of the time. I sort of wish he got traded. Yeah, he’d lose the great ballpark, but maybe another club would’ve been able to help him find an approach that performs up to its potential. (View Game Card)
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs SDP (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna make us reconsider his AGA tag. He deserved it after fanning 10+ batters for five straight starts, but the last two haven’t been nearly as good. He didn’t command four-seamers well, forcing him to throw breakers nearly two-thirds of the time. With the schedule looking oh so cushy with SFG/@LAA/TOR on the horizon, let’s write this off as a One Night Bland and look for him to bounce back right away. (View Game Card)
Jackson Jobe (DET) vs CHW (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 74 pitches.
Oof! I sang Jobe’s praises after he exhibited increased velo and an elite slider in his season debut. There was a slight decrease in his velo, but it’s still up 1-2 ticks from its pre-surgery baseline. It might be more Empty Velocity than I initially determined, as it was super hittable on Friday, serving up five hits and a pair of long balls. His command of sliders away also disappeared, as they either missed way out of the zone or landed middle-middle, leading to just 50% strikes. Changeups stepped up a little, with four whiffs and 50% CSW, giving me hope that he has the weapons to support his one-two punch when they aren’t at his best. I want to write this one off as a loss of focus on two center-cut fastballs and getting Singled Out (.500 BABIP), but it’s difficult to ignore how much more this start aligns with his 2025 performance than his dope debut did. Heading to Pittsburgh next, let’s bench him in standard leagues and reassess afterward. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Jacob Misiorowski vs. Justin Wrobleski – Misiorowski continues his historic season in a playoff preview against the two-time reigning champs.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
