Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) vs ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
The Astros sure love them some sweepers. They’ve employed plenty of pitchers who rely heavily on the pitch. Lance McCullers Jr. was one of the first Houston starters to deploy one without much assistance from the rest of his arsenal. Earlier this year, Kai-Wei Teng had a stint in the rotation, during which he showed such an affinity for sweepers that I nicknamed him The Janitor.
Returning from Tommy John surgery in July, Hayden Wesneski rejoined the breaker brigade, showcasing not only the best sweeper of the bunch, but one of the best in baseball. The right-hander deployed his signature pitch to great effect as he hosted the A’s, tossing 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches (W). As expected, sweepers led the way with eight whiffs, 30% CSW, and four punchouts, but will Wesneski break the trend of Astros arms struggling without ancillary offerings?
To answer that, we need to know the secondary options he brings to the table. It’s a trio of fastball variants – a poorly-shaped 94 mph four-seamer (13-14″ iVB and 0.5 HAVAA), a 93 mph sinker that doesn’t grade out much better, and a promising cutter that is rarely thrown, but was up a tick to 90 mph on Friday. That sounds like a pair of pitches with which he’s attempting to earn strikes while avoiding damage, and a third that needs some work.
The real potential savior is a changeup that typically sits at 86 mph, but was up to 87-88 mph on Friday (usually not a good thing because it reduces the velo difference between it and the fastballs). It grades out well with 4-6″ iVB and 14-16″ iHB, allowing it to induce four whiffs with nearly 70% strikes, as he displayed a feel for locating it low and armside.
The slowball is so integral to his success because both sweepers and sinkers typically perform worse against opposite-handed batters. That actually hasn’t been the case for Wesneski this year, but we should expect him to have more success against RHB given his love of the sweeper and his ability to mix things up with two fastballs (sinker and four-seamer), rather than just the four-seamer against LHB. The changeup gives him a weapon to take down LHB looking to hunt low and in sweepers.
It’s all sort of worked thus far, making his start days feel more like hump day! Yes, he needed some help from Koufax to return 10 outs on 11 balls in play on Friday, but he’s allowed more than three runs just once in his first five starts this year, inducing double-digit whiffs in every single one of them. The presence of swing-and-miss hasn’t led to the punchouts you’d expect (20% K%), but at least on Friday, that can be blamed on an unlucky 29% putaway rate.
Does Wesneski break the Huascar Rule? Sort of…BUT! His changeup has been pretty solid, and there’s potential in his cutter making life easier against both handedness. The four-seamer and sinker are never going to be great, but if they can live on the edges, preferably upstairs and armside, respectively, they should avoid enough damage and earn enough strikes to allow his sweeper to hunt for whiffs low and gloveside. He’ll get a real test @NYY next, and while I’m not streaming him there in standard leagues, he needs to be rostered in deeper leagues and should be on the streaming menu if he continues to improve the further away he gets from surgery. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches.
Is this the best version we’ve seen of Gore this year? I don’t think so. He did induce a season-high 21 whiffs to earn the Gallows Pole, but with four-seamers and changeups going sub-60% strikes and cutters being completely axed, we’ve seen a better attack from him before. This had a bit of Blame it on the Angels to it. It seems like you’re knocking him after this dope performance! It’s a lot easier to find things wrong with a start than to find things to latch onto. I do love his ability to keep four-seamers upstairs (maybe a little too far), keep changeups below the zone (maybe a little too far), and keep sliders away from LHB. I’m also surprised curveballs performed so well with wild locations. His last five starts have been dominant, producing a 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 28% strikeout rate, but Gore isn’t labeled a HIPSTER for nothing. There’s no guarantee the command of this approach lasts, but we’ve gotta let him fly when he heads to Milwaukee. (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
I’ve come to terms with my fear of Detmers’ demise. Seeing reduced velo and a lack of pitch separation due to poor slider locations doesn’t faze me. He’s gonna succeed regardless of whether he effectively deploys his one-two punch. It’s a little promising to see changeups step up for 67% strikes while staying away from RHB. I also love curveballs stealing some free real estate with 4/8 called strikes. If he’s got supportive tertiary offerings, the fastball and slider don’t have to be perfect. (View Game Card)
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace despite sub-50% four-seamer strikes. Cutters and sliders stepped up to drop his ERA to 1.68 for the year. This was his second consecutive start with six punchouts, a mark he eclipsed in all but two of his first 22 starts. Maybe the workload or velo is taking a toll on him? Naaah, don’t be silly. No, seriously, don’t even joke about it. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
What is it gonna take to slow down E-Rod’s year-long Vargas Rule? I feel like he could run through a brick wall with his changeup alone. He was down a tick across the board, making it difficult for him to put batters away as efficiently as he’d like (29% per-batter putaway rate, 10% per-pitch putaway rate), leading to the disappointing Philly. I’m not worried in the least bit. Keep this boat rowing until the anchor catches something heavy on the ocean floor. (View Game Card)
Noah Cameron (KCR) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 85 pitches.
I was promised strikeouts! Fair. Cameron had fanned at least seven batters in six of his previous eight outings. The other two? A grand total of three strikeouts combined. When they don’t flow, it’s been a product of an unlucky putaway rate. In those two underwhelming outs, it was a 14% putaway rate. Here? A below-average 20% mark (he’s at 41% for the year). He’s still commanding his deep arsenal well, and we should be thrilled we got great ratios and a win despite having to look for our Ks elsewhere. They should return during this easy portion of his schedule, with @TOR and MIA across the next two weeks. (View Game Card)
Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 62 pitches.
Throwing seven different pitchers for 77% overall strikes is impressive. Too bad it won’t matter unless the Marlins give him a longer leash. He’s thrown 70 or fewer pitches in all but three of his 17 outings this year, preventing him from being able to qualify for wins, impact our ratios, or tally up strikeouts. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. (View Game Card)
Will Dion (WSN) @ MIA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 48 pitches.
I think it’s safe to ignore opener Brad Lord, whom the Nationals are unwilling to truly stretch out. They’d rather use him as a Swiss Army knife, opening games, pitching multiple innings in relief, shutting down high-leverage situations, or even closing out games. There’s SWATCH potential with Dion, though. It’s weird to see him acquired at the deadline and immediately stretched out after succeeding in his previous transition to a relief role. He throws 90-91 mph with a great changeup and a curveball, but his super-high 67-degree arm angle negates his 21″ of iVB. I see him as a left-handed Alan Rangel. Not a glowing endorsement, but as a lefty, there’s a chance his slowball and unique arm slot befuddle enough RHB to allow him to vulture a few wins. (View Game Card)
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Not the most pristine outing, as four-seamers flew too high a few times, but his Ras Pack + secret weapon curveball sets him up for success even when he’s Singled Out (5/6 hits were singles). Great job stranding those baserunners like they’re on a deserted island! (View Game Card)
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ COL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
Cantillo was about as efficient as a city jurisdiction releasing a building permit. It’s the same approach with increased velo, he just lost his feel for everything but his cutter, as curveballs, changeups, and four-seamers combined for sub-50% strikes. Let’s just blame this one on Coors and trust him to carry us in fantasy playoffs with easy matchups @LAA, vs TOR, and @BAL. (View Game Card)
Randy Vásquez (SDP) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
Do you need me to tell you that the guy with a sub-9% strikeout rate across his last 11 outings shouldn’t be trusted to survive with such a heavy reliance on balls in play finding gloves? It’s a common courtesy. Don’t trust Randy. I don’t care if cutters are coming in two ticks harder to sit 93 mph. They produced just 23% CSW. This was a Koufax special, as he returned 18 outs on 20 balls in play. We got the point when you said not to trust him. (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs PIT (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 107 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for the King Cole. Yamamoto is doing his best to erase the evidence that led to us decrying his lack of strikeouts. He’s fanned nine batters in consecutive starts, something he did just twice in his first 21 starts, raising his strikeout rate a full point to 25%. Keep it rising just like the suspicion about the Dodgers’ finances. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) @ MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It doesn’t get more Singled Out than this. Sale allowed eight hits. All eight hits were singles. It hurts even more to see him doing his best to combat it with 58% grounders and weak contact. Maybe next time we don’t lose a tick of velo so our putaway rate doesn’t fall below 40%. Oh well, he was dope regardless. (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) @ KCR (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 94 pitches.
Regression was expected from Melton after his ridiculously hot start, making me want to just write off his last two underwhelming starts. The issues weren’t the same in both of them. Last time, he got BABIPed to death. On Friday in Kansas City, a pair of solo shots accounted for both runs, and a two-out walk in the fifth led to a hook and a Philly. His cutter hasn’t been touched as much or thrown as hard recently, but I’m not remotely considering doing anything dramatic after so much success from Melton. (View Game Card)
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs TBR (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 103 pitches.
If you don’t know by now, Rogers is a SWATCH pulling off the BSB with high four-seamers and low changeups, while mixing in sweepers and cutters to keep batters honest. Don’t forget the sinkers he throws to LHB! Can’t forget those. Just like last year, he’s on a wonderful run that should last through the end of the year as long as his command doesn’t waver. Since the beginning of June, he’s recorded a 2.57 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate across 14 starts. We love living the SWATCH life! (View Game Card)
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs CHC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Why does it feel so burdensome to repeat the same concerns we have with Hancock every week? Because they never disappear! His four-seamer still has reduced velo, he’s still too reliant on fastballs, and his secondaries aren’t good enough to step up and make a difference. Thus, you get this Philly with a decent amount of strikeouts. Don’t let his success in quality start leagues fool you. Hancock has a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 21% strikeout rate in 17 starts since he fanned 14 in his first start of May. The dude’s a Toby who gets to pitch @TEA half of the time. (View Game Card)
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ginn is on the other side of the spectrum, forced to pitch in Sacré Verde half of the time. It makes him a solid streaming option on the road, where he’s produced a 3.63 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 24% strikeout rate in 14 outings. It didn’t work out on Friday, as sliders and cutters failed to support signature sinkers, combining for just 45% strikes. That meant Ginn had to up his sinker usage, throwing them half of the time, allowing batters to sit on them in the zone and belt them for three hits, including back-to-back fifth-inning doubles that scored a pair of runs. He heads back home to host the Twins before hopping in the RV for another road trip @TEX and @SEA afterwards, where he’ll be on the streaming menu. (View Game Card)
Hunter Dobbins (STL) @ PHI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.
Welp. The velo disappeared again, and so did the extra movement on his pitches that got us interested in the first place. So, it’s the worst of both worlds? Well put. Oh, he also lost his command, leading to just 55% overall strikes. Three worlds?! With BAL and @LAD on the horizon, it’s best to ignore Dobbins. Hand him a sock and set him free. (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (TOR) @ NYY (L) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 61 pitches.
In his Blue Jays debut, Arrighetti was opened for by southpaw Mason Fluharty. If you expected the new threads to suddenly transform into a command arm, I commend your optimism. Toronto is making an effort to combat his lack of strikes by having him throw more sinkers, combining with four-seamers to feature fastballs more than half of the time. That’s a step in the right direction, though we begged the Astros to have him throw his other offspeed pitches more often. The curveball is dope, but the sweeper and cutter (probably not the changeup), could shine if given the opportunity. Let’s see what he’s doing when he’s up to 80 pitches in a couple of weeks. (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) vs NYM (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
Burke’s hot streak has come to a screeching halt. I don’t think anything has changed to suggest he deserves to be going downhill. Elite four-seamers are getting upstairs, breakers are landing low, and cutters are mixing in to keep batters honest. All but his changeup (thrown just twice) earned 70%+ strikes for a 76% overall strike rate. He’s doing everything he’s supposed to, but diminished putaway rates are preventing him from being the dominant strikeout arm he was in the middle of the summer. Maybe he needs to trust his stuff to get chases and whiffs out of the zone more often. Either way, I’m not thinking twice about starting him vs TEX next. (View Game Card)
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ CHW (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
Throwing two ticks harder to sit 93+ mph, Manaea was untouchable through 5.1 innings. Then disaster struck. A free pass preceded back-to-back-to-back home runs. He finished off the frame, but boy, reality hit hard. There was really only one mistake pitch, a center-cut sweeper to Miguel Vargas for the first long ball, but the other two came on fastballs that fell below 92 mph, calling into question his stamina when throwing at 93+. It’s the Brewers next before a Florida two-step @TBR and @MIA. I think you keep rolling with him in leagues where pitching is hard to come by, but if you can, maybe avoid MIL before going all in for the latter starts. (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
A pair of dingers flew over Sonny’s head, forcing him to confront the Gray skies above him. His sweeper has been the x-factor this year, and his feel for it has been missing for a few starts now. Luckily, he’s got a deep arsenal to offset its disappearance on most nights. In his next start, the domed LoanDepot Park should allow him to avoid any forecasts of clouds obstructing the sun. (View Game Card)
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.
A disastrous second frame featuring a three-run dinger made this start look a lot worse than it was. It’s disappointing having the SWATCH fail to take advantage of a cushy matchup @TEA, continuing a string of starts in which he hasn’t been at his best. Boyd has pitched to a 6.12 ERA with a 10% strikeout rate across his last four starts, coinciding with an increase in homers. He’s served up eight dingers during that span after allowing just six in his first 12 starts. It also coincides with a string of nine starts during which he’s induced double-digit whiffs just once. His BSB hasn’t been as pristine as usual, preventing one of his four-seamer or changeup from joining the other in missing bats in any given start. The Toby ceiling isn’t really worth chasing anyway, so give him a break @ARI next. (View Game Card)
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs STL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 110 pitches.
Aces gonna give up a ridiculous two-run homer to Joshua Báez (you’ve gotta tip your hat) and another to Jordan Walker in the sixth to hand this Phillie a Philly. At least he salvaged this Dusty Donut with nine strikeouts and reassured you he’s going to be fine by pointing to the lack of homers this year (12) and his upcoming matchup @TEA. We love aces. (View Game Card)
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
This was a clear Do Not Start with Chandler heading to Hollywood and having failed to shake his HIPSTER label. He tried to get it done with brute force, featuring his highest velo of the year, sitting 99.6 mph with four-seamers, and adding three ticks to sit nearly 94 mph with sliders. Faster four-seamers were difficult to command, returning just 55% strikes, and Dodgers hitters had no problem handling them, turning them around for a trio of hits and a homer. Locations matter! (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (TBR) @ BAL (L) – 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 98 pitches.
The high earned run count and long leash suggest that Peralta might’ve been pushed too far. Nope! Peralta had five runs on his ledger through five frames, but the Rays saw an opportunity to keep the bullpen rested by squeezing some volume out of him. What’s in it for us fantasy managers? I guess one extra strikeout and ratios that don’t hurt as bad. The Rays are still having him throw more changeups and fewer four-seamers, but the heater still couldn’t avoid damage (five hits and two homers). To avoid damaging our fantasy teams, we’ve got to avoid Peralta until he proves to be worthwhile. (View Game Card)
Tanner Gordon (COL) vs CLE (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
COL story, bro. Even with a decent BSB approach and secondaries combining for all nine whiffs and a whopping 89% strikes, Gordon’s four-seamer got destroyed. Coors is undefeated. (View Game Card)
Logan Webb (SFG) @ BOS (L) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 70 pitches.
Webb nearly escaped the third, but a two-out single set up Willson Contreras to hit an absolute nuke over the Green Monster. He lost it after that, serving up a couple of singles before hitting a batter, walking the next one, and plunking another guy. This is a textbook One Night Bland. Write this one off, start him next time, look in the mirror, shrug your shoulders, and say whatareyougonnado? (View Game Card)
Connor Prielipp (MIN) @ SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
OOF. That’s 14 runs across Prielipp’s last two starts. Sliders are doing their job, but this Young Gun is breaking the Huascar Rule. I don’t think curveballs are the savior, sinkers falling off the outside edge to RHB are the key, and four-seamers sitting middle-middle is intentional. The command needs a lot of work, and I’d love him to figure out changeups. On the bright side, he’s massively depressing his 2027 ADP! (View Game Card)
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ ARI (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Finger blisters have prevented Lodolo from getting into a rhythm this year. It also seems as though they’ve affected his command. It was worse than ever on Friday, as changeups, curveballs, and four-seamers combined for sub-50% strikes. If not for sinkers going for 75% strikes, he’d have walked more than just a pair of batters, though living in the zone meant they served up four hits and a homer. A huge factor in this blowup was a .529 BABIP that should dissipate when he heads to the park by the bay next time. I don’t blame you if you’re unwilling to put your trust in this HIPSTER with your fantasy playoffs on the line. He’s rarely displayed the upside that made him a consensus top-40 pitcher in the Spring. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Kade Anderson vs. David Peterson – I’m pumped to see what MLB’s #1 pitching prospect looks like in his MLB debut!
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
