Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jedixson Paez (BOS) vs SEA (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
The Chicago White Sox selected Jedixson Paez in the Rule 5 Draft, and he made his MLB debut in a relief role in April. He was ultimately optioned to the minors and, per the rules of the draft in which he was taken, was returned to the Red Sox. The 22-year-old went on to pitch to a 4.11 ERA (61.1 IP), 0.96 WHIP, 31% K%, and 3% BB%, starting half of the 20 games he appeared in.
With impressive control and strikeout upside, there was some hype surrounding his first big-league start in his Red Sox debut, but his head was in the clouds against the Mariners as he struggled through 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches (L). Given an external club’s interest in him, his impressive minor league numbers, and his young age, there’s got to be something here to get excited about, but was there anything in Tuesday’s start to keep him in the back of our minds for 2027?
With any starter, Paez’s arsenal deserves an SP Roundup introduction. He wields a decent 92 mph four-seamer that plays up thanks to 17″ of iVB, 1.1 HAVAA, and above-average 6.7′ of extension. If he could keep it upstairs, it has potential to end at-bats, but he’ll need to display better command than the 57% strikes it returned. His signature pitch is a straight changeup with little armside run at 83 mph, but it plays well off his heater and was commanded well low and armside against LHB.
The tertiary offerings aren’t any less interesting. A big 79 mph curveball was able to consistently find the zone and steal free real estate. There was also a sinker that was deployed downstairs to RHB, but it didn’t earn chases and didn’t prop up his strike rate as it should. That pitch will be integral if his four-seamer isn’t reliably commanded. The x-factor, in my opinion, was an 85-86 mph cutter (it’s a slider with 3″ iVB and -2 iHB) that will be integral in making him effective. As a right-handed, changeup-focused pitcher, he’ll be prone to RHB, but with a cutter/slider, he’ll have a weapon to pair with his fastballs to neutralize same-handed hitters.
By no means does Paez have an overwhelming arsenal, but it’s a deep pitch mix that covers all the bases. What was missing on Tuesday was the impeccable control he displayed throughout his up the minors. He’ll need to locate effectively and throw plenty of strikes to maximize the effectiveness of his arsenal. I don’t think he was so hittable that he deserved to be Singled Out with a .500 BABIP and two homers accounting for half of the runs he allowed. Koufax will be kinder to him in the future, but he needs to do his part and bump up that strike rate.
He’s back to the minors after this spot start, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him if he gets another chance to start in September. There’s no clear path to the rotation in 2027 with so much starting talent in Boston, but we saw this year how quickly spots can open up. On top of that, Paez isn’t done evolving. He’ll be just 23 next year and has a great base off of which to build. Don’t get too hyped, but he’s someone we can daydream about. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Golden Goal. He’s fanned double-digit batters in seven of his last 10 starts. Just keep on throwing strikes and keeping that sinker under wraps. (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) @ HOU (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 104 pitches.
Technically that’s a bounce back, but Burke gave us something else to worry about as his average fastball velo fell below 94 mph. When he’s at his best, he’s sitting 95-96 mph. It’s not like he curbed the issues from last game as much either. Four walks is half as many as the eight walks he issued last time, but it’s also twice as many as two walks and four times as many as one walk. What I’m trying to say is that his command was all over the place, he’s throwing softer, and he was lucky Koufax turned a blind eye, allowing him to return 11 outs on 12 balls in play. I’m nervous for his next start hosting the Twins. (View Game Card)
Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 73 pitches.
Don’t be fooled! We want Prielipp to be a guy we can chase for strikeout upside, but pitching behind opener Andrew Morris isn’t the solution. Yes, it worked out here, but other than his slider looking even better, all of his issues persisted. The breaker is the only pitch we had no concerns about. It tried to do everything by itself, bumping its usage north of 40% while sitting two ticks harder at 90 mph, as it dominated with 37% CSW and 73% strikes. What about everything else? Four-seamers were commanded poorly, returning just 50% strikes and failing to be the supportive pitch they need to be to help Prielipp avoid breaking the Huascar Rule. We’ve also been looking for a third pitch to step up. Curveballs have been there in the past, and sinkers have propped up his strikes recently, but we want the changeup to show up to force RHB to respect his entire arsenal. Each of those pitches was thrown no more than eight times, suggesting he doesn’t trust them and is unwilling to incorporate them. He only feels comfortable with his slider, and it’s a dope pitch, but that’s not gonna cut it in Detroit next. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 69 pitches.
The Marlins have been inconsistent with Phillips’ leash this year. Are they gonna let him interact with the neighbor dog or keep him tight to the heel? He’s too unpredictable as a result of the volatility in his workload. Even when he’s at his best, they cut him off at low pitch counts. He’s completed six frames just twice – in consecutive starts in late June. I don’t think we’ll see him given enough chances to put himself in line for wins, nor do I think he’ll command well enough with an arsenal prone to LHB often to make his short starts worth our time. (View Game Card)
Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
After a brief stint in the minors, Blanco is back and continuing to display the inefficiency that necessitated his demotion in the first place. He struggled to keep his secondaries low, but most importantly, his four-seamers returned sub-50% strikes. He found himself in plenty of two-strike counts (71% 2Str%), but due to his lack of fastball command, he couldn’t find the putaway pitch he needed to end at-bats, returning an 8% per-pitch putaway rate that inflated his pitch count, forcing an exit before the fifth frame. I love Blanco’s stuff, but I’m not trusting him this year. Hopefully, he works out the command kinks to be someone we trust as a potential Holly in 2027. (View Game Card)
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ ARI (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Fastballs didn’t avoid damage, but luckily the worst of it was a mere solo shot. Like when you get fast food, and they forgot something in your order, but it’s just the ketchup packets. I’m more of a ranch guy anyway. (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (TBR) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 74 pitches.
The Rays fixed Freddy! Last time, he finally had his first good start in new threads, but facing his former club, he looked better than ever. It was the BSB with increased changeup usage in Detroit, but hosting the Mets, he kept everything armside, showcasing the best command and efficiency he’s had all year. The pitch separation between heaters and slowballs was impeccable while breakers snuck in the front door to join the party. The cross-body mechanics of Peralta have led to inconsistent command throughout his career, so we should be a little skeptical that this’ll stick beyond Tuesday, but if he can pull this off every time, he’s going to be dope. I’m willing to give it a whirl in Atlanta. (View Game Card)
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 99 pitches.
Home/road splits, schmome/schmoad schmits. Woo has turned up the heat on his fastball recently, sitting 97 mph in his past four starts, allowing him to put to rest the fears that he’s only good when pitching in the friendly confines of @TEA. After giving up six runs at home in his last start, let’s hope this isn’t just a complete 180° of his splits. What is this, gymnastics? Woo won’t achieve his strikeout potential without support from his breakers, and with his reliance on heaters more than 2/3 of the time, I don’t think we’ll see a strikeout surge in September. As long as he’s sitting 97 with plenty of strikes and few home runs, he’s going to be an elite Holly the rest of the way. Let’s hope he does enough hosting the A’s next to get us to consider starting him during his trip on The Green Mile afterward. (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs ATH (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 95 pitches.
A perfect candidate for the BSB approach, Gore has rarely displayed the command to pull it off for multiple starts. It was around for most of August, and it’s sticking around in September, but he’s still working on cleaning up the edges. Three of his four walks came in full counts, suggesting he was more competitive in the zone than the total number of free passes points to. He also left a few too many pitches in the heart of the zone, but lived to tell the tale. Regardless, as long as he’s keeping heaters upstairs and secondaries down low, he’s going to be pretty solid and is worth chasing for the strikeout upside. Stop being a HIPSTER so we can start you freely down the stretch! (View Game Card)
Gabriel Hughes (COL) vs BAL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.
Hughes walked the bases loaded with two outs in the fifth, forcing an early exit before he could qualify for a win. His unique profile, defined by a 92-93 mph cutter and elite extension, could find a way to survive in Coors with more experience, but for now, we’re going to avoid him when pitching at home…and when pitching on the road. Probably everywhere in between as well. (View Game Card)
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 100 pitches.
It’s been a tough season for Lodolo, as he’s dealt with a finger blister that has affected both his availability and his command. He sort of looked better than ever on Tuesday, commanding his four-pitch mix better than I’ve seen in a while. He created a rainbow, with red four-seamers upstairs, yellow sinkers in the middle armside and gloveside, green changeups low and armside, and blue curveballs hitting the dirt or the back foot of RHB. It was enough to propel him to his first start of six frames since July 5th, and just his second since the end of May. Unfortunately, he gets LAD x2 now, so we should send him back to the wire. (View Game Card)
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 95 pitches.
Bradish has been going through tough times. So, of course, he pitched pretty well in Coors. All he gave us was a good ERA (no win, poor WHIP, just four Ks), but at least he didn’t get destroyed. You’re grasping at straws. You’re right. He hasn’t had both breakers working in concert since late June, forcing his hittable heaters to step up and get wrecked in the zone. He’s failed to fan more than five batters in a start since June 22nd, pitching to a 4.58 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and a 17% strikeout rate in 11 starts since then. That juice ain’t worth the squeeze hosting the Red Sox next. (View Game Card)
Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ CIN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 69 pitches.
Things started to fall apart in the fifth for Vásquez, as he gave up a pair of hits to score the second run against him, and despite being below 70 pitches, he was forced to get the bullpen involved. It’s not a ringing endorsement to have your club lack the faith to let you get out of a jam like that. He’s still throwing harder, sitting 96 mph with four-seamers and 93 mph with cutters, but when you throw them middle-middle, they’re not going to induce the whiffs and rack up the strikeouts he needs to get us interested. He’s fanned more than three batters just twice in 19 outings since mid-May, barely maintaining a strikeout rate north of 10%. This isn’t the Toby you’re looking for. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) @ CHC (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.
“Go out there and give it your all!” is what I’m guessing the Brewers said to Gasser before he threw harder than he has all season while being limited to just 76 pitches. It’s hard to trust him as a streamer if he can’t survive five frames, something he’s failed to do in three of his last five starts. The leash is an issue, but so is the lack of efficiency, stemming from poor command (sub-60% overall strike rate) and an error-induced taxing fourth frame. There’s not enough strikeout upside with Gasser to make him worth chasing if he’s not guaranteed to qualify for a win. (View Game Card)
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
Irvin is doing everything he can to get us interested, except for being efficient enough to survive five frames. He’s throwing 1-2 ticks harder across the board, throwing plenty of strikes, and relying on a deep arsenal featuring six offerings. With his heater sitting 94 with an elite 7.2′ of extension, it gets on batters quickly. In concert with his signature curveball, this should be working better than it did here. The disconnect is an issue of command, preventing him from putting batters away quickly and avoiding balls in play against heaters trying to steal the heart of the zone. This is no time to be advancing your love life! (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (TOR) @ CLE (L) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 62 pitches.
Pitching in bulk relief of opener Spencer Miles, Arrighetti is making the trade-off of increased velocity for a shorter workload. That might be good for the Blue Jays, who get a superior version of Arrighetti, but it doesn’t work for fantasy managers who don’t get enough volume from the righty to qualify for a win or offset his mediocre ratios. At least he’s expanding his arsenal a little beyond four-seamers and curveballs. The potential for a kitchen sink approach working for Arrighetti is there, but he’ll need to do something he doesn’t always do – throw a bunch of strikes. (View Game Card)
Brady Basso (ATH) @ TEX (L) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 40 pitches.
I’m gonna passo on Basso after he opened in a bullpen game for the A’s. (View Game Card)
Gerrit Cole (NYY) @ LAA (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out, with a .444 BABIP and 6/8 hits earning one total base. I’m gonna blame a ridiculous 34% foul ball rate on four-seamers that prevented him from putting batters away, ending at-bats quickly, or avoiding balls in play altogether. It’s Rockie Road next, so let’s just forget about this one. (View Game Card)
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs MIL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Boyd had just one run on his ledger through five frames, but he left the sixth inning with two men on and one out, only to watch both runners come around to score in a clear Careful, Icarus. There was better execution of the BSB here with four-seamers sitting above the zone and changeups sitting downstairs, but his breakers were awful. Like eight-year-old me with guests over, curveballs were upstairs more often than they were downstairs, and sliders couldn’t find the zone (7% zone rate). Boyd hasn’t looked like himself for a while, fanning just 14% of the batters he’s faced across his last 10 starts due to a lack of command that’s integral for a guy without overwhelming stuff. If you’re hunting wins or quality starts, I’m fine starting him in Miami. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 103 pitches.
This is like when you try the weird food your friend has been begging you to try for the first time. It’s not terrible, but I don’t want it again. This was a Wonka, but we’ve got to give E-Rod a mulligan after all he’s done for us this year. (View Game Card)
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
GrayRod was bamboozled in the first for a pair of longballs knocking in three runs, before locking in for five frames of one-run ball with a ton of whiffs on his changeup and four-seamer. Until I see improved four-seamer shape, better pitch separation between his heater and slowball, or one of his breakers stepping up to support the one-two punch and give him a weapon against RHB, I have to remain incredulous about his success. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ LAD (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
McGreevy almost got it done against the Dodgers with some well-located changeups and extra velo, but it’s McGreevy against the Dodgers. Now, he heads to Coors, and we’re gonna keep ignoring him, no matter how many times he calls our name. Don’t look at him. Just point to the board that displays his second-half ERA – 6.11. (View Game Card)
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ TBR (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
Manaea whipped out his changeup for a…change, but it failed to offset his reduced velo (sub-92 mph) and lack of command. Nothing landed low, and way too many pitches sat in the middle of the zone. That’s four straight starts of four runs or more, and it’s time to move on from Manaea, even when he heads to Miami next. (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) @ MIN (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 96 pitches.
We knew Melton was going to face some regression after pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA through his first 14 starts, but we didn’t expect it to hit this hard. Four-seamers and cutters are still dope, showcasing increased velo and earning plenty of strikes, but without any of his offspeed pitches eclipsing 60% strikes and contributing to an overall 16% CSW, he’s clearly not fooling anyone. Heading to Cleveland before getting Rockie Road, as long as Melton maintains the extra velo and throws strikes, I’m gonna keep sending him out there. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.
The velo was there, as Skenes sat 97+ mph with his heaters. Nice! Everything else was awful, combining 41% strikes and failing to induce a whiff. When I first deep-dived Skenes, I noted that, despite decreased velo, his heaters continue to perform well, and that his secondaries appear to be the problem. Whether that’s correlated to the diminished fastballs is hard to say, but he’s gonna have to command his secondaries better either way. At this point, if you roster Skenes, you sort of just have to keep starting him and hope you get the good version. (View Game Card)
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) @ WSN (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
A primary-splitter arm without a breaker to neutralize RHB is gonna struggle often in the Majors. AJSS gets it done with the BSB against LHB, but with sub-50% strikes on sinkers and breakers against same-handed hitters, he couldn’t keep the bases empty. His splitter is dope, but without a legit support offering beyond a decent four-seamer, he breaks the Huascar Rule. The Braves seem to have an affinity for guys like this (Huascar Ynoa himself, Grant Holmes, Reynaldo López, JR Ritchie, etc.). (View Game Card)
Randy Dobnak (KCR) vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
I want every pitcher to be dope, especially the weird ones, but it feels like everything is right in the world when a pitcher who exceeds expectations for a long period of time finally performs as you’d expect. I wouldn’t count out Dobnak locking in his command against the lowly Blue Jays next to restart his Vargas Rule, but this seems to be the end of the run. (View Game Card)
Eric Lauer (LAD) vs STL (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BB, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 63 pitches.
We stream Lauer for a chance at a win against weak offenses. This was an ideal matchup, but it’s hard to secure a win when you get Singled Out in the third frame. Lauer allowed five singles in the frame alone and watched in horror as five runs came around to score. I guess Koufax wasn’t a fan of his curveball. He may not get another start with Justin Wrobleski back from the IL and Shohei Ohtani on the verge of returning to the rotation. (View Game Card)
Logan Webb (SFG) @ PIT (ND) – 2.0 IP, 9 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 K – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 65 pitches.
Oof! What a way to ruin some playoff matchups at the start of the week. Webb was left in way too long as he got Singled Out in the third. Four straight singles opened the inning before Webb started nibbling, walking the next two batters, before another single knocked him out of the game. Two more runs scored after he exited, and this was a clear Koufax horror show and a One Night Bland. I can guarantee you he won’t return a .692 BABIP in his next start in Queens. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Cam Schlittler vs. Reid Detmers – Schlittler looks to put the final touches on a Cy Young-caliber campaign, while Detmers continues to make me forget about all the factors that had me worried about his demise.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
