Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Don’t fret, Colin Rea is confirmed to be in the Brewers rotation out of camp.
Taj Bradley has a pectoral strain and won’t be throwing for two weeks, making him out for Opening Day.
Lucas Giolito optioned to not get TJS, but yesterday underwent surgery for an internal brace. That still means he’s out for all of 2024 and it’s unclear how long of 2025 as well.
Matt Waldron is currently a favorite to land inside the Padres rotation. Not a major shock as Pedro Avila and Randy Vasquez have both struggled this spring.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
MIN vs. DET
NYY vs. TOR
Joe Ryan (MIN) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Ummmm. So. Back in October, I was favorable of Ryan and ranked him around 20-25. In my latest update, I put him lower at 30 (and that’s with injuries ahead of him!), rooted in not seeing anything new in his arsenal, and worried that it would be the same HR problems of last year. Welllll, that’s not true anymore. Ryan showcased a new, harder slider + a harder spliter to pair with his sweeper and it was fantastic. Sure, all four of his slider + sweeper whiffs came against Javier Báez (lol), but he executed the BSB perfectly, including with his splitter. Oddly enough, the new sinker we heard a lot about was nowhere to be found, but this version of Ryan (who is also throwing a tick harder at 93 mph, not 92) is one I can get behind. Oh dang, I’m getting hyped y’all. His four-seamer is still prone to the longball when it’s not upstairs (elite HAVAA, but poor iVB and meh extension), but these improved secondaries should help massively.
Kenta Maeda (DET) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. The splitter was absolutely cooking in this one, fueling those punchouts, but the rest was still shaky. The slider wasn’t nearly as well commanded as the splitter, while the fastball…ho boy. Still down about 2 ticks, sitting 89.2 mph (not 91) and was terribly spotted. I’m more encouraged here after the splitter woke up for a start and hey, maybe the velocity returns when the season starts as Maeda is ramping up, but it’s hard not to think Maeda’s degradation is coming and we’re not going to get above 90 mph this year. That’s still worrisome.
Jackson Jobe (DET) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. This is the #1 SP prospect in baseball. 96 mph cutters. a 100+ mph heater (with 17-18 iVB), a filthy changeup he kept down, and a sweeper for strikes. Forget everyone else, this is the guy you have to ensure is on your team when he arrives this year…which likely won’t be until June given the depth in the Tigers rotation + he’s turning just 22 at the end of July. But seriously, he’s absolutely BANANAS.
José Berríos (TOR) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. He has a new cutter this spring that he’s exclusively throwing to LHB and I adore that for him. However, just 2/7 strikes here (well, a third that was called a ball) and there’s some polish left to add before we lean into this properly. Still, you love to see it.
Statcast Games – No TV
ATL vs. PIT
HOU vs. MIA
KCR vs. COL
Reynaldo López (ATL) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. So it’s 94 mph right now instead of 95/96 mph, and that’s not the greatest thing we’ve seen. His command of that four-seamer wasn’t great, either, though he was earning strikes with his slider and curve more than usual, and that’s a promising sign that ReyLo can actually be a proper starter. Just get back to 95 mph, okay?
Chase Anderson (PIT) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Oh wow, you’re still here. If you steal Jared Jones‘ rotation spot…
Hunter Brown (HOU) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Interesting one. High heater approach, but the curve and slider weren’t low to support it as we want. The slider is less of a cutter and more of an actual slider now, which I’m all for, though he needs to get those breakers lower. I’m cool with this, it’s progress.
Jesús Luzardo (MIA) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Slider locations were great (55% CSW lol) and his four-seamer is back to 96 mph, though its locations weren’t great, while the changeup went just 2/17 whiffs. We all know the upside here, I’m still a little cautious that Luzardo can put it all together consistently.
Cole Ragans (KCR) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Nick is in shambles. Yeah, his command wasn’t good. The fastball was in the middle too often, he threw a pair of very hittable two-strike curveballs, and his slider nor changeup wasn’t utilized as we normally see it. I’m not worried – it’s the spring, his velocity and iVB are up, and the pitch mix looks a little different than what we normally see. And at least it’s 71% strikes, right?
Cal Quantrill (COL) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. COL story, bro.
No Statcast – TV
SFG vs. LAD
CLE vs. TEX
ARI vs. SDP
Blayne Enlow (SFG) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s a kitchen sink guy with solid breakers and a questionable heater. That could be what the Giants need and you may see him finding starts early this year given the dearth of SP depth in San Francisco.
Landen Roupp (SFG) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. His big breaker earned all the whiffs, leaning on a sinker inside for strikes. So a sinker/sweeper guy. Seems like it? I’ll hold off until I get data, but with his lower arm angle, it makes sense for Roupp. Not my favorite arm, but I can see how this could work, especially if there’s a legit changeup in there.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace.
Shane Bieber (CLE) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. We didn’t get official pitch data, but the broadcast mentioned 93 mph for Beiber on two fastball strikeouts. His sole walk came in his first batter as well and I’m starting to lean back in favor of Bieber with the velocity actually being above 91 mph now. You have to think the breakers will be better + the contract year does add a little extra incentive. Sigh. Guess I gotta update my dumb ranking from Monday.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Hey that’s pretty great from Heaney, though it reads like a start where he was able to throw enough strikes to get the outs he needed – including a 5-pitch first inning. There’s a new curveball in there, which may be a helpful weapon, but ultimately it’s the command that has me staying away. Looking forward to getting more data here.
Zac Gallen (ARI) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Meh. Not a fun line, but we’re not going to adjust Gallen at all from this one.
Drew Thorpe (SDP) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. He sat 88/89 mph on his heater. Wait what. Yeah. It’s a legit changeup, don’t get me wrong, and he has a cutter he targets inside to LHB with a sweeper to RHB, but hot dang, I can’t buy into a prospect arm who sits sub 90 mph, even if that changeup is Wacha/Estrada-esque.
No Statcast – No TV
STL vs. BOS
TBR vs. BAL
SEA vs. OAK
NYM vs. WSH
CWS vs. CIN
MIL vs. CHC
Matthew Liberatore (STL) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Womp womp. The Cardinals are going to be cycling through their backend starters this year and Liberatore still may be the SP #6, but you don’t want it.
Brayan Bello (BOS) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Blegh. He talked about his four-seamer getting tagged in this one, to which I say why are you throwing that thing. We move on.
Tanner Houck (BOS) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Houck continues to perform and I’m at the point where I may be more interested in Houck than Whitlock. It’s awfully close and I wonder if I should be awarding these spring results as the tiebreaker. Maybe I’ll wait to see Whitlock’s next outing and hope he gets his slider and changeup back on track.
Erasmo Ramírez (TBR) – 3.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Oh man, hey Erasmo. I feel terrible for you, suddenly getting called upon to chuck baseballs after Taj Bradley left the game with injury before facing a batter. Of course you were promptly demolished. You didn’t deserve this.
Tyler Wells (BAL) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Right right right, Wells is a thing. I’ve barely heard any discourse on Wells this off-season after having himself a marvelous first half of 2023 before he fatigued and the Orioles demoted him + moved him to the pen for the playoffs. There could be some legit value here starting for the winning Orioles and I’d heavily consider him in 15-teamers.
Bryce Miller (SEA) – 3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Man, I wish we had data here. I’ve been questioning his overall command and I’m dying to get specifics about his mix and locations. Soon enough.
Alex Wood (OAK) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s with the Athletics and will get some innings. Pretty sure you’re not going to want them, though.
José Quintana (NYM) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This certainly looks like the command is in order, but let’s wait to get precise data to ensure he’s getting the pitch separation that turned him into a Vargas Rule last year.
MacKenzie Gore (WSH) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. The walks are a bit frustrating, just two strikeouts are weird, though 5.2 innings suggests a ton of quick outs along the way. I’ve been intrigued by his new affinity for elevated four-seamers + its extra tick of velocity and I’m looking forward to his next start where we could get confirmation that it’s a true shift for 2024.
Dylan Cease (CWS) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. This dude really wants to get traded. It has to happen, right? Are the Yankees or Rangers going to fix him? Absolutely not and he is what we think he is. Enjoy the highs, come to the Discord for support during the lows.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – 4.0- IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. The command is still holding back his stuff. You can’t do this.
Nick Nastrini (CWS) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. This is the White Sox prospect to remember during the year. No data or video sadly, but he’s a legit polished arm. There’s no reason for Chicago to rush him, but be aware in season as he’s a must-add when the time comes.
Colin Rea (MIL) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Hmmmm. You have my attention Rea. This was a man executing consistently, getting whiffs on fastballs against solid hitters and having a feel for his secondaries. I haven’t given any love to Rea this spring at all, but that could have been a mistake. He has a rotation spot and if he’s in this rhythm with something new this year, it could mean early production.
Justin Steele (CHC) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. This was slider dominance with some fastballs getting whiffs. I really want to see that changeup turn into something this year but I’ve changed my tune on Steele after embracing the slider and his fastball command.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates daily via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
MOAR YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO
Carlos Rodón – Sit 95+ mph. You can do it. PLEASE.
Nick Pivetta – Good command? SL/SW/CB/CT working?
Jack Flaherty – Consistent? 94/95 mph?
Roansy…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 13, 2024