The List 4/11: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 1

Welcome to the first in-season edition of The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year. It’s the List the site is named after.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
4. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
5. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
6. I’ve also made the decision to not mention Trevor Bauer. There’s too much of a headache for many reasons. Just don’t do it.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this week: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

I know, I know, Lucas Giolito and Blake Snell are technically not on the IL yet, but you know it’s going to happen and it would be dumb for me to rank them right now. I imagine Snell returns before Giolito, but let’s hope they both pitch in April. And yes, there’s a chance Snell avoids the IL, I know.

Jon Gray shouldn’t miss too long with a blister and I applaud the Rangers for making this happen early. Frequently, guys try to tough it out and make matters worse, even having it last through the year. Nip this in the bud and we’ll get amped in May.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you read my 40,000 words on all the Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 that I released in February for more info about these players or just follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season. About 95% of it still applies and will do so much to help you understand the skill sets of everyone ranked here. Seriously, it will answer all your questions and it took months of work to put together. Read it.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Y’all aren’t going to like this, but save for me removing Lucas Giolito and Blake Snell, I’m not touching the Top 35 pitchers. Yes, I know that Julio Urías is throwing softer, Shane Bieber’s spin rates are out of whack, etc., etc., etc. We can’t make these drastic season-long moves after one start, a start that comes off a dramatically shortened spring.
• Remember, the Top 35 are the arms we’re trusting through the full year. There are six more months ahead — I’m not ready to make sweeping assessments on these rock-solid players yet.

 

• With Giolito and Snell hurt, that’s an innate +2 for many, turning into a +3 once you get past 50 with Jon Gray on the IL. Remember y’all, The List is relative and the # is nothing without understanding the landscape. Mitch Keller is #1 if we only have Pirates pitchers.
• The only pitcher I actually touched inside the Top 40 was Michael Kopech. I can imagine this being questionable to some, but after watching his full start, I’m finding myself skeptical of his command, especially as it comes in at a more pedestrian 95 mph. This can absolutely be an “it’s early” thing, but I wanted to give him an early ding just to hedge a bit.

 

• Inside Tier 7 you’re going to see one of the largest jumps this week coming from Tylor Megill. He represents an important point of my Lists — once you get beyond the secure arms in the first six tiers, guys will move plenty as we’re trying our best to highlight the best ceiling arms to chase. It’s why there can be moves in the back half of The List despite only four days of baseball being played.
• About Megill: He came out firing against the Nationals, sitting 97-99 in the first frame and settling down to about 96 mph for the entire night, around two ticks harder than last year. His slider was vastly improved as well and I can see Tylord becoming a major arm in fantasyland through the year if he holds 96+ through the year.

 

• Tier 8 stays the same — everyone’s pitch counts are down and their ceilings are just the same as before. We haven’t even seen Matt Brash start yet. This is one of the weirdest editions of The List all year because of stuff like this. Let’s move on and keep chasing the ceiling.
• Like Michael Kopech, I think Tarik Skubal needs a bit more time than I was anticipating. His breakers weren’t clicking as we want them to and we’ll likely have to wait until May or so for us to see the man we envision. That’s completely fine, it just means he slots under a very dominant Sean Manaea and Adam Wainwright for now.

 

• Oh Ian Anderson. He had a toe blister that removed him early from his final spring start and it likely was still affecting him as he walked five over the weekend. I had a gut feeling Anderson would put it together this season, but I think it’s clouded my vision and I’ve been recognizing the haze that is his wonky command over the last two weeks. I still believe he’s far better than this, but yeah, I can’t put him above inning stalwarts like Marcus Stroman.
• Nope, I’m not raising Hunter Greene after his debut. Why? Because he’s essentially what we thought he was — good strikeouts, questionable ratios, Cherry Bomb. That’ll work for the most part in your 12-teamers and let’s hope he develops better four-seamer command over the year.

 

• I really enjoy Tier 10. Merrill Kelly looked brilliant against the Padres over the weekend, adding two ticks to 93 mph on his heater and showcasing a filthy changeup to fan seven in just four frames. It’s not the elite velocity of Tylord, but it’s a massive indication of change in the right direction for an arm who desperately needed it.
• There’s also Eric Lauer in this tier, who is back to my original ranking. It’s been tumultuous: He was delayed with a groin injury, then didn’t have his command in order in the spring…but now he’s apparently throwing 2-3 ticks harder. That’s huge. I imagine he’ll get the lead for Tuesday night’s SP Roundup if that holds in his first start of the year and I encourage a snag off the wire if you have room.

 

• In Tier 11, we have our featured pitcher Kyle Hendricks. I had my doubts we would see Hendricks carry his classic changeup and stellar command out of the gate, but here we are after seeing 13/33 whiffs on the slowball on opening day. I hope this is enough of an apology for you, Kyle.
• We also have Kyle Wright entering this tier after an impressive outing against the Reds. His command is still a question mark, but his slider was as good as we’ve seen it. I’m not suggesting he’s completely figured it out now — it’s one start! — but it could be an indication of consistency to come.

 

• I don’t think I actually touched Aaron Civale’s ranking, so don’t overthink that. I did change Luis Patiño and Drew Rasmussen, though, as I’d starting to lean more into their ceilings in Tampa Bay. Let’s hope they are allowed to go the proper 5+ frames often.
• Joining them is Tommy Romero as Ryan Yarbrough hit the IL. It’ll take a moment to get him going, so he’s a stash play like Jordan Hicks, who is limited to just 45 pitches on Tuesday. We’re at the point in the rankings that you can side with stashing ceiling or aiming for streams, making Hicks and Romero more valuable commodities to consider vs. the plethora of streaming options in Tier 12 and later.

 

• Tier 12 is where we start seeing the ole reliables who are plenty replaceable. I’m having my doubts that Hyun Jin Ryu is someone worth keeping close to your chest moving forward, while Steven Matz’s blister may be a problem for a good while. Don’t be so loyal that you keep them in your lineups while removing yourself from finding excellent rotation-defining starters.
• I gave a dip to Michael Lorenzen despite not even tossing an inning as I found myself wanting to chase other guys instead — his ceiling isn’t quite as high as I’d like it to be. That said, he should still be on your radar and I hope to raise him back up next week.

 

• I gave a massive serving of red to Patrick Corbin after his season debut against the Mets. I was hoping to see something new in any fashion and what we got was a slightly diminished velocity + just two whiffs on his slider the entire night. I find it hard to buy into the concept of him reaching his ceiling without a figurative ladder entering the picture.
• It was good to see Carlos Carrasco feature a well-commanded changeup and 35% on his sliders, but it’s far too early to believe it’ll be like this consistently. Cool first step, though.

 

• In the final tier, we have a mix of streaming options and highly questionable ceiling plays. Even with Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Zack Greinke performing well in their first starts, they aren’t arms I’d run out to grab off my waiver…save for Gibson against the Marlins. That should go well, just don’t hold him for Coors after the fact.
• I’m not much of a believer in what Mitch Keller has done thus far. Despite his velocity, his heater still gets hit hard + his secondaries haven’t taken the step forward he needs. I’d take my chances elsewhere.

 

• Tony Gonsolin had a rough go of it in Coors and all I cared about was whether his slider returned. It didn’t, and his velocity did him no favors. It could very well be an early season + Coors thing, and I’ll monitor this with him on the wire instead of my rosters.
• Sorry Zach Plesac, I didn’t see any growth in your sliders nor changeups to be convinced to hold onto you in my 12-teamers. Maybe we’ll see something new, soon.

 

• We have a few new arms entering the List this week at the end. Nestor Cortes Jr. and Jameson Taillon are here not for their outings against the Jays, but for the Orioles at the end of the week. Consider adding them for the weekend streams as they will be past their likely pitch-limited first starts.
• Lastly, there are also Elieser Hernandez and Yusei Kikuchi. Elieser is less of a streaming option and more of a long-term play with his excellent slider, while Kikuchi gets the Yankees (no thanks) and then Oakland to close out the week. I’d certainly consider him there.

 

• As for what would make Alex Fast thrilled, I slotted Austin Gomber at the end of the list as an interesting #100 option…even if it means dropping him a few spots from last week. I originally thought facing the Rangers on the road was a good situation for Gomber, but seeing their offense roll in Toronto has me second-guessing this stream. That said, Gomber has some fantastic secondaries and I’m curious to see how he develops through the season. Keep an eye on Gomber, especially for starts on the road.

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Sandy Alcantara T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
8	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	-
9	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	-
10	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	-
11	Charlie Morton T3	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
12	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
13	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
14	Logan Webb	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
15	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
16	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
17	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
18	Carlos Rodón T4	Injury Risk	+1
19	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential	+1
20	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential	+1
21	Justin Verlander	Ace Potential	+1
22	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential	+1
23	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential	+1
24	José Berríos	Ace Potential	+1
25	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	+1
26	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	+1
27	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	+1
28	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	+1
29	Clayton Kershaw T5	Injury Risk	+1
30	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential	+2
31	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+2
32	Luis Severino T6	Ace Potential	+2
33	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	+3
34	Eduardo Rodriguez	Strikeout Upside	+3
35	Nathan Eovaldi	Strikeout Upside	+3
36	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	+3
37	Shohei Ohtani	Injury Risk	+3
38	Framber Valdez	Quality Starts	+3
39	Michael Kopech T7	Ace Potential	-4
40	John Means	Quality Starts	+2
41	Luis García	Strikeout Upside	+2
42	Alex Wood	Strikeout Upside	+2
43	Alex Cobb	Ace Potential	+4
44	Tylor Megill	Quality Starts	+20
45	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	+3
46	Joe Ryan T8	Ace Potential	+3
47	Tanner Houck	Ace Potential	+3
48	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+3
49	Matt Brash	Ace Potential	+3
50	Sean Manaea T9	Strikeout Upside	+3
51	Ranger Suárez	Quality Starts	+4
52	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+4
53	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	+4
54	Tarik Skubal	Strikeout Upside	-8
55	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential	-10
56	Huascar Ynoa	Strikeout Upside	+2
57	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	+2
58	José Urquidy	Quality Starts	+2
59	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside	+2
60	Nick Lodolo	Stash Option	+2
61	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	+2
62	Hunter Greene	Strikeout Upside	+3
63	Merrill Kelly T10	Strikeout Upside	+UR
64	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	+2
65	Noah Syndergaard	Ace Potential	+12
66	Nick Martinez	Quality Starts	+1
67	Eric Lauer	Quality Starts	+19
68	Anthony DeSclafani T11	Quality Starts	-
69	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts	+UR
70	Kyle Wright	Strikeout Upside	+UR
71	Bailey Ober	Strikeout Upside	+3
72	Aaron Civale	Quality Starts	-2
73	Luis Patiño	Strikeout Upside	+6
74	Drew Rasmussen	Streaming Option	+6
75	Jordan Hicks	Stash Option	+UR
76	Tommy Romero	Stash Option	+UR
77	Steven Matz T12	Quality Starts	-8
78	Hyun Jin Ryu	Quality Starts	-6
79	Josiah Gray	Strikeout Upside	-3
80	Carlos Carrasco	Quality Starts	+1
81	Cal Quantrill	Quality Starts	+1
82	Michael Lorenzen	Streaming Option	-4
83	Casey Mize	Quality Starts	+1
84	Patrick Corbin	Quality Starts	-13
85	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside	+2
86	Zack Greinke T13	Streaming Option	+2
87	Kyle Gibson	Streaming Option	+2
88	Adrian Houser	Streaming Option	+6
89	Corey Kluber	Streaming Option	+6
90	Tony Gonsolin	Strikeout Upside	-7
91	Mitch Keller	Strikeout Upside	-16
92	Carlos Hernández	Streaming Option	+7
93	Elieser Hernández	Streaming Option	+UR
94	Nestor Cortes	Streaming Option	+UR
95	Yusei Kikuchi	Streaming Option	+UR
96	Jameson Taillon	Streaming Option	+UR
97	Taylor Hearn	Streaming Option	+1
98	Zach Plesac	Quality Starts	-13
99	José Suarez	Streaming Option	+1
100	Austin Gomber	Streaming Option	-10

 

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)