It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 12’s starting pitcher rankings.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.
As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
For those unaware:
- Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
- Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.
Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:
- If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
- If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
- These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
- This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
- I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I’m so relieved to keep Jacob deGrom on The List as it looks like he’s going to make his next start. Phew. I was tempted to make an empty Tier 1 just for him if he were placed on the IL,
- Tier 2…is different. A lot different. I’ll do my best to articulate why I’ve changed so much and bear with me. In short, we’re into June now and it’s getting too hard to ignore some flaws that haven’t changed (Shane Bieber’s failure to keep the ball down, Trevor Bauer’s very clear decline in spin rate leading to struggles) while other new skills that haven’t gone away (Zack Wheeler’s increased strikeouts, Carlos Rodón’s velocity jumps).
- Seriously, Carlos Rodón’s velocity jump is insane. He averaged under 93.5 mph on his four-seamer in the past and hit averaged 97.5 mph on Sunday. CRAZY. The main question is how high that velocity will stay up through the entirety of the season and for 2+ months, it’s only gotten better. Welcome to the Top 15.
- Back to Tier 2. I surprised myself a bit with Yu Darvish landing in the #3 spot, but he’s been incredibly steady and doesn’t carry the injury question of Max Scherzer (left Friday’s start early) and Brandon Woodruff’s likely innings cap.
- Zack Wheeler gets the jump that his performance has demanded and with some question marks for those below him, I couldn’t deny it any longer. That four-seamer is simply too dang good.
- Lance Lynn, Tyler Glasnow, and Lucas Giolito all pile into the Top 10 as well, as each have showcased an ability to go deep into games, while the tallying large strikeout rates. Giolito’s four-start stretch seems to be behind him, though the scar is still there and pulls him to the bottom of the tier.
- Tier 3 carries Rodón + the fallen trio of Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, and Corbin Burnes. Buehler has been productive ratio-wise, but his strikeout numbers have fallen as his secondary stuff has taken a step backward + he doesn’t have the same innings leash as those in Tier 2. Bieber hasn’t thrown his cutter, forcing his breakers to land in the zone too often, making him more hittable than ever, inflating his WHIP. I think he will improve, but it was time to give the spotlight to others who give us less reason to worry.
- Finally, there’s Burnes who hasn’t been nearly as effective as his opening month, dipped in his spin rates, and has been too reliant on his cutter as of late. I still love Burnes and think he’ll perform well, but paired with an innings cap that all others inside the Top 15 don’t carry, he has to take a hit in the rankings.
- Tier 4 gives us Trevor Bauer, whose drop in spin rates have been most apparent as he’s struggled with his four-seamer. There’s a sense that he can’t perform at an elite level without it, though it’s not like Bauer was terrible in 2018 when he didn’t use the sticky stuff. Pair that with a huge ceiling in innings + a winning ball club and Bauer is still Top 20. Just not a Cy-Young ace.
- Don’t take Aaron Nola’s “-1” harshly, that’s just Rodón jumping ahead. It’s great to see Nola stabilize against the Yankees, I’d love to see one more start with two of his three pitches working (changeup was missing) to begin the process of raising him back up The List.
- Tier 5 leads off with Robbie Ray, who continues to plow forward with 23 strikeouts to his name across his last two starts. There is a heightened HR risk given his propensity at the top of the zone, but I’m not sure it’ll lead to an implosion. Throw in a curveball that hasn’t returned yet and there’s still room to grow.
- Framber Valdez closes the tier as an arm who could find himself in the Top 20 soon enough. Just give us two more starts of 7+ innings and you’ve got it, Framber.
- Tier 6 contains many fun names, including the return of Lance McCullers, who doesn’t deserve the #34 rank for this week (Jake Odorizzi will be following him), but as an arm who should be a steady rock through the end of the season now. He’ll likely be in Tier 5 in future weeks as he stretches back out.
- Yusei Kikuchi continues to fire 96 mph and favor low-90s cutters mixed with sliders to great effect. Keep starting him and don’t look back.
- In Tier 7, Blake Snell’s encouraging outing was nullified as he struggled to land a break in the zone, returning to a changeup that…didn’t serve him well. I have to believe it clicks in for Snell at some point (maybe next time?) but he falls until then. The stuff is simply too good.
- Kyle Gibson, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt have been steady rocks for teams and have given little reason to stop trusting them, regardless of opponent. Let it ride, let it ride.
- I gave a huge jump to Dinelson Lamet as he’s getting stretched out more each start for the Padres. We’re close to having proper Lamet make and that should excite all of us.
- Shohei Ohtani jumps up as well as he’s been plenty more consistent over the last month. It may be a product of not tossing max-effort fastballs through starts, instead starting slow and building up, allowing him to throw more pitches inside the zone. It’s working, and hopefully it lasts.
- Alex Wood falls to Tier 8 as his slider has disappeared across his last two starts. I’m a little concerned it may not return for a bit and I’m hoping it returns from its vacation next time out.
- I gave a drop to Rich Hill as well as he got roughed up by the Orioles. Pair that with a high likelihood of injury at some point this season + the Rays limiting his pitch counts here and there to help keep him healthy, I elected to lower him to #48.
- Chris Paddack performed as well as I’ve seen him since 2019 over the weekend, tossing 97 mph heaters up in the zone while his changeup did damage in the bottom third. Even without his curveball doing much work, if this version of Paddack sticks around, he’ll continue to climb the ranks.
- It’s time to welcome Kenta Maeda back to The List as he returns from injury to face the Mariners. We’re not sure what we’re going to get in this one and he only tossed 54 pitches in his final rehab start. Let’s hope the slider and splitter are working wonders.
- I had to give a drop to Shane McClanahan after he lasted just four frames and continues to disappoint those hoping to see six innings from the southpaw. I still love the stuff and believe he’ll excel when allowed to 90+ pitches, but I understand some need more volume from the roster spot.
- I’m a touch worried that Alek Manoah’s changeup has disappeared in his two starts following his MLB Debut, though it could return and carry the ceiling of a Top 50 arm very much worthy of your rotation.
- In Tier 9, I want to give Kyle Hendricks a bump, but he hasn’t quite looked like ole reliable for a good bit – Hendricks has been teetering the edge of productivity and the waiver wire, making him act more as a Toby than a proper #2/#3 that you drafted him for.
- Domingo German was not nearly the man we’re used to over the weekend, leaving tons of pitches over the heart of the plate and earned just one whiff on his curveball. I still like him for your teams (technically, #60 SP = A #5 SP!), but he could be trending in the wrong direction moving forward.
- I gave a massive jump to Logan Gilbert, but it’s not that huge of a deal – 83 to 63 is more of “not really relevant now” to “Hey! Consider this guy a bit!” Gilbert had a much better slider and changeup in his last start and while I’m not sure if both will show up in the same way next time, he should be swooped up as he faces the Rays.
- I’m itching to watch Tony Gonsolin on Monday night in hopes that his slider can be as good as we’ve seen in previous years. The pitch was all but gone when he returned from the IL last week and a Gonsolin with his slider and splitter is a Top 40 arm.
- Tier 10 has arrived and we’re still wondering what to make of Dylan Bundy. He had a “step forward” last time, but isn’t quite the arm we envisioned in March. Show me a slider-heavy focus that leads to success and we’re golden.
- Patrick Sandoval and James Kaprielian are looking like decent arms to stream at the moment, with the Irish
PanadaPanda having a lovely schedule and Kap getting it done with a four-seamer and strong breaker.
- The Fratty Pirate (aka Ryan Yarbrough) has bounced around and seems to be settling in as a decent Toby around the late 70s. Don’t overlook him when you need a Win or decent ratios against a middling squad.
- Tier 11 is the tier of disappointment and intrigue, with a sizeable drop handed to Jameson Taillon. I’ve had a lot of faith in Taillon figuring out his breakers to complement his four-seamer, but it hasn’t come together and it’s too late into the season to keep expecting better. Keep tabs of him on the wire, though.
- Tucker Davidson should be monitored, though there’s no reason to pick him up and bench against the Red Sox. Consider adding him after the start, especially if the skills are there.
- Marco Gonzales‘ return from the IL hasn’t been nearly as smooth as we’ve hoped, looking more like a waiver-wire streamer than a Spider-Man akin to his 2020 campaign. I don’t believe the risk is worth the reward at this point.
- Tier 12 is where you’re finding a lot of the questionable streaming options, from Joe Ross‘ recent explosion to Matthew Boyd’s suspicious repertoire and Brady Singer’s “possibly-good-enough-to-roster-but-other-days-it-hurts-your-squad” combo of sinkers and sliders.
- A pair of rookies in Sammy Long and Tony Santillan made their debuts in the majors and on The List. Long has a great curveball that propelled him to success against the Rangers and could continue to produce. Santillan has mid-90s heat with a decent breaker, but the command was wonky. He could iron it out in the future as he moves past his MLB Debut jitters.
- Finally, there’s the thirteenth tier, carrying Josh Fleming, Brad Keller, and Zach Davies, each making a return to The List. Consider them as streamers and nothing more.
- Nick Pivetta falls down as he simply hasn’t executed the BSB as well as his stuff demands. His ratios will be in question, but consider him an option for Wins and strikeouts.
- Vladimir Gutiérrez makes his debut as he could be a deep streaming option. I don’t love what he brings to the table, but there’s enough here for some value.
- At the coveted #100 pitck, Zach Thompson makes an appearance after dominating Atlanta with a dastardly cutter and a low-to-mid 90s heater. There could be something there if his cutter can perform this well, but in all likelihood, it comes back down to Earth in his next outing.
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES
Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
2 | Gerrit ColeT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
3 | Yu Darvish | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +3 |
4 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
5 | Brandon Woodruff | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
6 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +5 |
7 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +3 |
8 | Lance Lynn | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
9 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +5 |
10 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +3 |
11 | Walker BuehlerT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
12 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -9 |
13 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -5 |
14 | Carlos Rodón | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +5 |
15 | Kevin GausmanT4 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
16 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -9 |
17 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
18 | Trevor Rogers | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
19 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
20 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
21 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
22 | Robbie RayT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
23 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
24 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
25 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -1 |
26 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +5 |
27 | Pablo LópezT6 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
28 | Marcus Stroman | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +2 |
29 | Tyler Mahle | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
30 | Ian Anderson | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +2 |
31 | Aaron Civale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
32 | Sean Manaea | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +4 |
33 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +6 |
34 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
35 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +7 |
36 | Shohei OhtaniT7 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +14 |
37 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +1 |
38 | Blake Snell | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -10 |
39 | Kyle Gibson | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +7 |
40 | Taijuan Walker | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +8 |
41 | Chris BassittT8 | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +2 |
42 | Dinelson Lamet | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +16 |
43 | Charlie Morton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -9 |
44 | Zack Greinke | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -7 |
45 | Tarik Skubal | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +4 |
46 | Alex WoodT9 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -17 |
47 | Frankie Montas Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | - |
48 | Chris Paddack | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +17 |
49 | Rich Hill | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -8 |
50 | Kenta Maeda | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +UR |
51 | Shane McClanahan | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | -11 |
52 | José Urquidy | Injury Risk Ratio Focused | +2 |
53 | Luis García | Strikeout Upside | -1 |
54 | Luis Castillo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Stash Option | +2 |
55 | Alek Manoah | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -4 |
56 | Anthony DeSclafaniT10 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +6 |
57 | Kyle Hendricks | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -4 |
58 | Zach Eflin | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -3 |
59 | Wade Miley | Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused | +2 |
60 | Domingo Germán | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -15 |
61 | Casey Mize | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +9 |
62 | Tony Gonsolin | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -5 |
63 | Logan Gilbert | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | +20 |
64 | Jordan Montgomery | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | -4 |
65 | Dylan BundyT11 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | -1 |
66 | Andrew Heaney | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +3 |
67 | Dallas Keuchel | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +7 |
68 | Steven Matz | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +8 |
69 | JT Brubaker | Toby Ratio Focused | +6 |
70 | Adam Wainwright | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +8 |
71 | Patrick Sandoval | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +14 |
72 | Jake Odorizzi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | -1 |
73 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -10 |
74 | James Kaprielian | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +16 |
75 | Austin Gomber | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +9 |
76 | Ryan YarbroughT12 | Toby Ratio Focused | +11 |
77 | Jameson Taillon | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -10 |
78 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -1 |
79 | Marco Gonzales | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -13 |
80 | Germán Márquez | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -12 |
81 | Griffin Canning | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +7 |
82 | Tucker Davidson | Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +18 |
83 | Patrick Corbin | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +3 |
84 | Cole IrvinT13 | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +9 |
85 | Brady Singer | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +6 |
86 | Matthew Boyd | Strikeout Upside Toby | +3 |
87 | Joe Ross | Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option | +10 |
88 | Mike Minor | Streaming Option | +6 |
89 | Sam Long | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | +UR |
90 | Tony Santillan | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | +UR |
91 | Josh FlemingT14 | Streaming Option | +UR |
92 | Alex Cobb | Streaming Option | -13 |
93 | Nick Pivetta | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -13 |
94 | Dane Dunning | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -2 |
95 | Tyler Anderson | Toby Streaming Option | - |
96 | Brad Keller | Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
97 | Zach Davies | Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
98 | Vladimir Gutierrez | Streaming Option | +UR |
99 | Ross Stripling | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | - |
100 | Zach Thompson | Ratio Focused Streaming Option Stash Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
In a roto redraft league using QS, K, ERA and WHIP in what order will you take the following?
1. Bauer – spin rate issue and climbing ratios. FIP and xFIP more than a run higher than ERA. SIERA good at 3.37 but has been moving up.
2. Lynn – Higher FIP and xFIP. SIERA 3.62 much higher than ERA. Also, doesn’t seem to be getting the strikeouts on that fastball and gets himself into frequent traffic on the bases.
3. Rodon – how many more innings/starts?
Rodon > Bauer > Lynn
I would put Bauer over Rodon only if you’re worried that Rodon could be injured as he has a history of injury-prone.
And I would put Lynn over Bauer if you would like to focus on ERA and WHIP more than K.
In my opinion these 3 pitchers are good candidates for some regressions in the sense their current ratios are way better than they should be.
> Rodon is the least likely to regress in my opinion as in his case it’s just a matter to be able to remain healthy. Maybe it’s the season again he can pitch a whole season! Who knows.
> Lynn doesn’t strike out enough to remain sustainably that high.
> Bauer’s ratios are definitely going to inflate as he isn’t this kind of pitcher. This, no matter if he now pitches for the Dodgers. And as long as you don’t have the cat “win”, it won’t matter a lot for you.
So overall yes. Rodon > Bauer > Lynn with Rodon and Bauer in a higher box than the one of Lynn.
I’m not even mad at the improvements to the top few tiers. Great job recognizing the shifting landscape.
I think I did something dumb: traded Trevor Rogers and Ian Anderson for Corbin Burnes. I had Yu Darvish and a host of other top pitchers , with a 32 Innings limit per week (easy). Thoughts?
On a team with Rodon, Peralta, Ian Anderson and Tyler Mahle (none of whom have pitched more than ~120 innings in years, if ever) at what point would you try to start trading away for arms more likely to go deep into the season?
Finally, the erection for Bieber had reached its 4 hour mark and its time to seek medical attention. The list is back to matching the good ‘ol eye test.
Welp, looks like everyone below Bieber gets a +1 with the news that Bieber is hitting the IL with a shoulder strain. What a first round bust!
Rodon doesn’t have the ‘strikeout upside’ square. This must have just been error of omission since he is literally #2 behind degrom in K/9 this year.
It’s nice to see The List is eventually providing a more accurate ranking of SPs based on what we’ve seen until now rather than projections.
Now that said, I still don’t understand why Nola and Fried are ranking so high. How is Nola a better pitcher than Perralta so far this season?
Finally, and Fried is a good example of that, how many pitchers labelled as AGA are really AGA? Fried is an ace? Nola is an ace? The freshly arrived Trevor Rogers is an ace? All these 3 pitchers are AGA as much as Darvish, DeGrom, or G. Cole are? To me, it doesn’t really make any sense! AGA is given way to much and way to easily in my opinion. “Ace potential” along with a new label such as “having pitched as an ace so far” would be more accurate. I mean seriously… how Fried is an ace? Fried or Paddack you hardly see any difference this season while is an AGA and the other one isn’t. It doesn’t make any sense! An AGA is a confirmed pitcher who has been an ace for most of his career. It’s how I understand it. If Fried is an AGA, then tons of pitchers are… Fried is an “Ace potential” playing for a team able to provide him tons of wins. He doesn’t make him an AGA… even less based on what he has done this season. And for his strikeout upside, he should firstly start to be a “one strikeout per IP”…
My 2 cents.
“The freshly arrived Trevor Rogers is an ace?”
Lol… Have you SEEN Trevor Rogers pitch this season?
Surprised to see Santillan at #90 given his less-than-glowing review in Sunday’s SP Roundup (“I’m…a little underwhelmed”).
Shouldn’t Trevor Rogers have a playing time concern label? His previous year’s innings are right in line with many of the other pitchers who have the label.
Curious….
Is an article listing potential spider tac downside SP coming? The issue seems to potentially shake up all rankings considerably. I know it’s impossible to know who has used it, but I’m guessing it’s nit hard to surmise.