It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 12’s starting pitcher rankings.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.
As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
For those unaware:
- Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
- Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.
Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:
- If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
- If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
- These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
- This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
- I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- It’s been a whirlwind of changes over the past two months and this week…not a whole lot. Still plenty of significant changes, but we avoided an ace getting hurt (sweet!) and the Top 21 arms barely shifted.
- Gerrit Cole did fall a few spots as he hasn’t been quite the same pitcher after lowering his spin rates. He still has excellent stuff, though, and I expect him to rebound. It’s a rough patch, not a fall from grace.
- Tier 3 doesn’t have a whole lot of change either. Robbie Ray gets the slight bump over Max Fried as the latter returns from the IL and the former has continued his blazing trail of domination.
- Lance McCullers jumps in at the end after establishing his slider in his latest outing. Now that he’s getting full starts and showcasing at least one breaker, we should feel plenty confident in his production moving forward.
- There’s a reason for the positive marks at the end of Tier 3 – Hyun Jin Ryu took a tumble as he simply doesn’t have his changeup and it’s affected him drastically. I do feel that he’ll get the pitch back over time (and his cutter too, while we’re at it), but he deserves the drop for now considering his ceiling isn’t a Top 10 arm.
- The fourth tier is filled with fun names, though Tyler Mahle has displayed more volatility than we’d like with three of his last four games coming with at least three earned runs. It’s not that Mahle shouldn’t help your teams – he’s #31! – but the other pitchers carry a more believable ceiling.
- Kyle Gibson has been stupid good and earned him a Gallows Pole with 20 whiffs catalyzing a 10 strikeout performance. It’s something else.
- It’s great to see Aaron Nola take a step forward on his redemption tour with twelve strikeouts against the Mets. Before we shoot him back up the ranks, we need to see more success first. I’m crossing my fingers it’s coming.
- We had a solid debate in the Twitch chat about where to place Zac Gallen, ultimately deciding on #35. It’s a mixture of expecting Gallen to reclaim the feel for his secondaries over time, allowing him to catapult into possible Top 20 territory, while understanding he isn’t performing as well currently as those around him. It’s always a balance.
- Ryu isn’t the largest drop of Tier 5, as that honor goes to Marcus Stroman, who falls 20 spots to #45. The mix of a lower ceiling + an injury that has clearly affected him has him lower than a huge amount of arms who are pitching at their potential and even hinting at more. It’s a tough tier to be in when things aren’t going your way.
- In Tier 6, I’m encouraged by Blake Snell’s recent outing and I know, I KNOW, A -3 mark seems so wrong. Please don’t be mad. It’s a question of trust – I raised others up in the rankings (José Urquidy, for example) as I’m buying their success a bit more than Snell. This wasn’t me pulling Blake down the ranks, and we just need to see him consistently perform at the high level before we make the climb.
- Chris Paddack also saw a drop in the tier as he fell nine spots. I was encouraged by Paddack’s previous two outings, but his latest was a major step in the opposite direction. Let’s hope he rebounds.
- Tier 7 is somewhat stable from last week, save for Alex Wood who…yeah, I know, did super well in his last outing. Why is he dropping? Because it didn’t come with the elite slider that has carried him all season before his June hiccups. I’m worried it was a blip and seeing another outing without the sweeper dominating is another nail in the coffin. I should also note, Maeda, Miley, Sandoval, Odorizzi, and Mize all gave decent hints of success this week, too.
- Speaking of which Patrick Sandoval still rises despite an underwhelming game against the Rays. I didn’t innately touch his ranking (it shifted due to others going up or down) and we’re still in the same place as before – I love his changeup (and expect it to return after not being there on Sunday) and his slider hints at becoming a consistent secondary weapon.
- It was a disaster last Monday for Frankie Montas as gloopgate seemed to affect the Oakland starter against the Rangers. He was better over the weekend, but I’m worried that the stable rock we envisioned just isn’t that great for our fantasy squads as we imagined.
- James Kaprielian jumped a bit this week into Tier 8 as he’s showcased himself as a glorified Toby. There are moments of strikeout upside in there too, but I see him mostly as a decent arm to avoid against tough teams. Nothing more.
- I’ve been a bit disappointed with Ross Stripling this week as he didn’t carry the excellent secondaries we saw during his start against the Yankees. We just saw two outings with an underwhelming curveball, changeup, and slider, and I’m a little worried it’s priming Ross for a blowup.
- Germán Márquez gets some love this week as I simply can’t ignore how good his slider (Money Pitch!) and curveball have been this year. Coors is undefeated and all that, so be careful, but he really does deserve praise for what he can do.
- I elected to give a bump to Eduardo Rodriguez as his fastball command has improved as of late and we may be on the verge of Erod having one of his solid stretches. Obviously don’t love him that much – he’s at #71, after all and we’re plenty past the point of “must-hold” arms – but he should be considered heavily.
- I dropped Jordan Montgomery slightly as I still believe there’s a corner that can be turned here but he’s hasn’t quite figured it out yet. The curveball, change, cutter, fastball approach can be legit.
- In the tenth tier it’s getting tricky. On one hand, you have Jameson Taillon tossing one of his best games of the season as he landed curveballs and sliders down, though even while watching him do it, I wonder if the shape of his breakers are as good as we need them to be. We need to see more.
- On the other hand, there’s Adbert Alzolay who fell 18 spots as he hasn’t looked the same since returning from the IL. It’s best for us to look elsewhere until he pitches at a level reminiscent of his May self.
- Nick Pivetta rose fifteen spots as I loved watching him pepper the top of the zone with 95+ mph heaters and finally get his sliders and curveballs down. It wasn’t as precise as we want, but he may be churning out enough production consistently enough to warrant a hold in 12-teamers.
- I also gave a pump to Zach Thompson after dominating not only with his excellent cutter, but with four-seamer command around the edges. I’m a little skeptical that he’s this good and he would have risen more if not for a date with Atlanta and the Dodgers next on the agenda. Who knows what kind of opportunities he’ll have on the other side of the All-Star break and I’d be cautious in those two starts.
- Making his debut on The List is Kyle Muller, who had a decent four-inning performance followed by five frames of shutout ball with nine strikeouts against the Reds. His command is still in question, though 95+ heat with a pair of CSW-friendly breakers makes my heart flutter. He gets the Marlins next this week and I’d be looking to pick him up and take a calculated risk.
- Joining Muller is the return of Danny Duffy, who tossed just two frames against the Yankees. It’s unclear how much he’ll get to go for in the future, but he was sitting 94/95 mph once again and that should have your attention – Duffy’s increased velocity in April is what made him excel, after all. The low ranking is a product of wondering if he’ll even pitch enough to be helpful.
- I couldn’t help but add Jon Gray this week as well, returning from the IL in incredible fashion, sitting 96 mph instead of his normal 94 and change. It’s still a Rockies pitcher, but there’s value to be had.
- Despite tossing his best start so far, Tony Gonsolin dropped a bit as I have yet to see his slider do what we want it to. That pitch is what propelled Gonsolin into the dominant starter in previous seasons and without it, Gonsolin is highly susceptible to a blow-up. Not to mention, he’s suffering from a bit of #Dodgeritis as we just don’t know how the Dodgers will use him moving forward – how many pitches will he go for in his next start?
- Tier 11 is filled with plenty of question marks. I gave a drop to Marco Gonzales, Dylan Bundy, and Griffin Canning, all pitchers who have spent many days with a higher ranking yet have gave managers fits this season. Instead of relying on them to blossom, I’d consider searching for something new.
- Caleb Smith rises to #87 despite not impressing me much against the Brewers. We’re looking 92 mph + one of his slider or changeup to show up in a given outing and this one saw sub 91 mph and poor secondaries. Still, the ceiling is there and he could display the upside in a blink of an eye.
- Many of this week’s newcomers lie in the eleventh tier with Tony Santillan, Steven Matz, Eli Morgan, and Merrill Kelly. Santillan impressed with better command and becomes an interesting spec add, Matz returns from the IL and could be a valuable back-end arm again, and Kelly has been a volatile streamer as he’s constantly sat 92/93 mph.
- Eli Morgan is the interesting one. His changeup was phenomenal against the Cubs, while his fastball rarely leaked over the plate. He did get gassed as the game went on, though, and it’s hard to bank on his fastball command being that good again.
- In the final tier, it’s a whole lot of red as I wondered who could be worthwhile as a possible streamer for twelve teamers. Alex Cobb took the biggest tumble as he simply hasn’t been the consistent streamer we thought he could be with his splitter back in action. There’s still hope here, it’s just a hard bet to make at this point.
- I elect to give the final #100 rank to an intriguing arm each week and here we have Chris Flexen after he earned 19 whiffs in his last start. Sure, it was against Rockie Road, though what impressed me the most how he had success with his four-seamer and curveball, not his cutter. It may be something to build upon, just don’t get too wrapped up in it- he gets the Jays this week and that’s a clear bench.
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES
Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
2 | Yu DarvishT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
3 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
4 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -2 |
5 | Brandon Woodruff | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
6 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
7 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
8 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
9 | Lance Lynn | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
10 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
11 | Carlos Rodón | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
12 | Kevin Gausman | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
13 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
14 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
15 | Trevor RogersT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
16 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
17 | Framber Valdez | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
18 | Robbie Ray | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
19 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -1 |
20 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
21 | Sandy Alcantara | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
22 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
23 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
24 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +7 |
25 | Sean ManaeaT4 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +2 |
26 | Shohei Ohtani | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +7 |
27 | Charlie Morton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +7 |
28 | Kyle Gibson | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +8 |
29 | Aaron Nola | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +8 |
30 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
31 | Tyler Mahle | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -5 |
32 | Ian AndersonT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | - |
33 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | +2 |
34 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -12 |
35 | Zac Gallen | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -6 |
36 | Taijuan Walker | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
37 | Chris Bassitt | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +2 |
38 | Tarik Skubal | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +7 |
39 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
40 | Shane McClanahan | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +1 |
41 | Zack Greinke | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +3 |
42 | Luis Castillo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +5 |
43 | José Urquidy | Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused | +6 |
44 | Luis García | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +6 |
45 | Marcus Stroman | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -20 |
46 | Blake SnellT6 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -3 |
47 | Kyle Hendricks | Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
48 | Anthony DeSclafani | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
49 | Adam Wainwright | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | +4 |
50 | Alek Manoah | Strikeout Upside | +4 |
51 | Chris Paddack | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | -9 |
52 | Kenta MaedaT7 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +3 |
53 | Wade Miley | Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused | +4 |
54 | Patrick Sandoval | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +4 |
55 | Jake Odorizzi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +4 |
56 | Casey Mize | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +5 |
57 | Alex Wood | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -1 |
58 | Frankie MontasT8 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | -12 |
59 | JT Brubaker | Toby Ratio Focused | +4 |
60 | Andrew Heaney | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
61 | Rich Hill | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +4 |
62 | James Kaprielian | Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option | +12 |
63 | Patrick Corbin | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +7 |
64 | Ross Stripling | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -2 |
65 | Germán Márquez | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +11 |
66 | Domingo GermánT9 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | - |
67 | Zach Eflin | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
68 | Logan Gilbert | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +1 |
69 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +3 |
70 | Jordan Montgomery | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | -2 |
71 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +10 |
72 | Dallas Keuchel | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +1 |
73 | Cole Irvin | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +9 |
74 | Jameson TaillonT10 | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +3 |
75 | Joe Ross | Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option | +8 |
76 | Nick Pivetta | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +15 |
77 | Kyle Muller | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
78 | Adbert Alzolay | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -18 |
79 | Zach Thompson | Ratio Focused Streaming Option Stash Option | +9 |
80 | Tony Gonsolin | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -9 |
81 | Danny Duffy | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +UR |
82 | Matt Manning | Streaming Option Stash Option | +3 |
83 | Jon Gray | Injury Risk Cherry Bomb | +UR |
84 | Marco GonzalesT11 | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -9 |
85 | Dylan Bundy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | -5 |
86 | Griffin Canning | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -7 |
87 | Caleb Smith | Streaming Option Stash Option | +13 |
88 | Tony Santillan | Streaming Option Stash Option | +UR |
89 | Steven Matz | Injury Risk Cherry Bomb | +UR |
90 | Eli Morgan | Streaming Option | +UR |
91 | Merrill Kelly | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
92 | Johnny CuetoT12 | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | - |
93 | Ryan Yarbrough | Toby Ratio Focused | -6 |
94 | Sam Long | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | -10 |
95 | Alex Cobb | Streaming Option | -17 |
96 | Mike Minor | Streaming Option | -10 |
97 | Streaming Option | -2 | |
98 | Dane Dunning | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -2 |
99 | Martín Pérez | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -5 |
100 | Chris Flexen | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Yarbrough dropping and at 93, ie considered barely rosterable in a 16-teamer. I guess I’ll take a solid SP on a Top 5 team with ERA estimators <4.00 and WHIP <1.20.
I wouldn’t want him on my squad. It depends on the format though. He is very fringe waiver material due to lack of Ks in most formats. Pitching for the Rays is a huge negative, not a positive. I do like the WHIP and I do see the appeal, but it is not exciting. If he was trusted to pitch deep then it would be a different story. I think of him as a guy that is only going to face soft match-ups, so the numbers are a bit beyond the skill. You might be right though – maybe the Rays are going to rely on him more that they have added Glasnow to the injury pile. They will need someone to pitch some innings for them. While I would agree that he should be above many of the rookies above him, he isn’t very interesting. He has some weird splits that support the idea that he just out there to sponge up low leverage innings but he will be gone when things get interesting. He also has been considerable better as an RP. I will take him a bit more seriously as a result of what you pointed out – thanks for bringing him to my attention.
Care to elaborate o the splits you’re talking about?
*as to… not “o”
Sorry, my keyboard had a brain-fart.
I have little confidence in McCullers production going forward. Consistency and health are skills. I would much rather have a struggling guy that has done it before like Nola. I wouldn’t take 2 McCullers for one Nola. Heck, I would prefer a Greinke. I think Rich Hill might even outproduce him the rest of the way. LM is anything but reliable and I will have zero confidence in him until he does it for a long stretch without trips to the DL.
Fried is also a guy that I think is always several tiers over his head. The pandemic was the only season where he has ever been good. The Braves generally have the most overrated players in the game. I think there are a lot of transient (Twitter) baseball fans that “follow the Braves and they make a lot of noise. The Cubs used to be the team in that position. It is very helpful to realize the teams that have the buzz. I will admit that I have avoided players on popular teams at times and it doesn’t always work out well but it is a good thought.
I haven’t trusted Duffy since: https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/08/29/danny-duffy-was-arrested-after-he-passed-out-in-a-burger-king-drive-through/
AKA: Danny Duffy was arrested after he passed out [drunk driving] in a Burger King drive-through
This season prior to his IL stint, though, has made me a believer. He’s obviously turned SOMETHING around, and the velo is all I need to roster him after that great start to the season. I won’t actually start him until the start after the one against the Sawx, but I think he’s worth the roster spot for the time being.
Nick – thanks for doing these. Question regarding your rule #3 which states “These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.” Does this mean you expect (hope?) listed pitchers remain in the rotation for the remainder of the season (barring injury)? I’m thinking of guys like Kyle Muller, Zach Thompson, Tony Santillan, Eli Morgan, and Sam Long that may be temporary fills. Thanks
Robbie Ray with his whopping 2.01 HR/9… wow… WOW! But, I guess it doesn’t matter as long as his ERA and WHIP are still good.
Hey Nick,
Is Luis Castillo back? Or are we still tentatively selecting based on matchups?
Love the note on Cole “after lowering his spin rates” if The sports wo
World goes belly up, a job as a spin doctor awaits you, Nick.
Giolito over Buehler & Bauer ??????
Also Shohei severely overrated (as a pitcher)