Elite talent dominates the top two tiers at third base, and in almost every format I have found myself trying to draft at least one of those top seven players on my roster.
A significant drop-off happens after the end of Tier 2 of these ranks, and if you miss out on one of the top seven guys, I strongly recommend you grab two of the guys in Tiers 3 and 4 as yet another drop-off happens after Tier 4. In shallower leagues, trying to only hunt late-round value at third base will put you in quite a hole, so be sure to target this position early in drafts.
Tier 1
1. José Ramírez (3B, CLE) — To be honest, I had completely forgotten about J-Ram’s somewhat sluggish start, in part because he quickly corrected it by hitting 11 home runs in May. Despite posting the lowest season-long walk rate we’ve seen from him since 2016, J-Ram tied a career-high in home runs (39) while setting new career highs in runs (114) and stolen bases (41) and the second-best mark in RBI (118).
Ramírez’s pull-heavy profile with plenty of fly balls helps offset some of the fairly pedestrian numbers we see from Statcast, but it’s interesting to see that his production came with two big spikes: a home run spike in May (11) and a stolen base spike in August (14). Those were his best months for home runs and stolen bases in his long career (respectively) and expecting players to repeat bursts like that is something I tend to avoid.
Even if J-Ram doesn’t get to 80 combined home runs and steals, he should continue to be the safest bet at third base on the board. Since his breakout in 2017, Ramírez has finished as a top-three third baseman every year except for one (a somewhat injury-shortened 2019).
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B/3B, TOR) — I admit I thought Vlad Jr. was on the decline after watching that rolling chart point down through 2022 and 2023 and into the start of 2024, but Vladito turned it on in the second half and showed us a spike in power we hadn’t seen since his breakout in 2021. Guerrero always kept the bat-to-ball ability, but grounders were crushing his upside until he found a way to break their spell in the summer. A Vlad who puts the ball in the air (as in line drives plus fly balls) more than 60% of the time is an extremely dangerous hitter. Heck, possibly even a top-five hitter. The floor is quite high regardless, really, but that second half showed us that the 40-home run power in his 2021 campaign may not have been a fluke after all.
Tier 2
3. Austin Riley (3B, ATL) — Like several of his teammates, Riley was slow out of the gate with a putrid .618 OPS and just three home runs through 53 games. Then suddenly, without warning, he hit a home run in three straight games, kicking off a 57-game stretch where he absolutely mashed: 16 home runs, a .942 OPS, and an average exit velocity of 95.6 mph. Unfortunately, a 97-mph sinker smacked Riley on the wrist, ending his season.
Riley has consistently been a hitter with plus decision-making skills and plus-plus power, and his 2024 was an odd departure from that. In his early-season struggles, the decision-making was there, but the power was gone. When he got hot, Riley showed the power we expected but ditched the decision-making (see the chart below).
I’m not overly concerned about the dip in decision quality, mostly because the expected results were there and our model is agnostic to an individual player’s ability and how he’s being attacked, but it was interesting to see the change in approach. If nothing else, it tells me that Riley doesn’t necessarily need to always make great decisions to deliver results due to his strength. I’m expecting a return to 35 or more home runs, though the ride might be a bit rockier than we thought it could be last offseason.
4. Rafael Devers (3B, BOS) — Devers is about as consistent as they come. From 2021 through 2024, he’s averaged 31.5 home runs, 90.5 runs scored, 96 RBI, and an .873 OPS per season and has logged at least 600 plate appearances in five straight full seasons. Devers was on track to possibly set new career highs in multiple categories as he had 25 home runs and 144 combined runs and RBI through his first 100 games, putting him on pace for 40 home runs and 233 combined runs and RBI with a .304 average and .381 OBP, but he faded hard down the stretch, hitting just .189/.282/.294 with three measly home runs over the remainder of the season.
We learned in late September that Devers had been battling soreness in both shoulders which ultimately got him shut down, and that the issues were exacerbated in late July on a diving play in Colorado. This lines up pretty well with the drop-off in production, and thankfully Devers has been given ample time to rest and recover. A healthy Devers should, at the very least, get back to those averages I referenced above, and what we saw for the first half of the season suggests that the ceiling may be even higher.
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B/OF, NYY) — The move from Miami to the Bronx is about as good as it gets for a hitter both in terms of hitting environment and general enthusiasm for playing baseball. Jazz was useful in fantasy in Miami, but he was phenomenal as a Yankee. His hard-hit rate as a Yankee was 11.4 points higher than it had been as a Marlin, and he put up better numbers in virtually every relevant category after the move (both offensively and defensively).
With two mostly healthy seasons under his belt and a new lease on his baseball life, Jazz could very well push for 30 home runs and 30 steals with strong counting stats and ratios that won’t hurt you. The injury risk is still quite real, of course, and we still saw spikes in his strikeout rate and dips in performance after the trade, but there’s plenty to be excited about here.
6. Manny Machado (3B, SDP) — Don’t panic when Machado has an extended slump, as he’s had one in each of the last five full seasons. They look ugly and get pundits everywhere asking, “What’s wrong with Machado?” The answer, generally, is “nothing he can’t fix.” In both 2023 and 2024, Machado looked incredibly pedestrian for a full two months to start the season before turning it on and getting to his numbers (roughly 30 home runs and 90-100 RBI). Don’t mistake year-to-year consistency with month-to-month consistency. Machado is absolutely the former but not so much the latter. The takeaway, if nothing else, is that Machado is likely to keep being a rock at the hot corner for fantasy teams, even if, at times, it looks like he won’t be. Just keep the faith and you’ll be rewarded.
Tier 3
7. Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) — Caminero didn’t immediately dominate the minors, but that expectation for power hitters is almost always misplaced. To me, the most important thing about Caminero’s 43-game sample is that he was clearly not overwhelmed. That’s a critical factor, especially for players who are this young and who spent relatively little time in the high minors (less than a full season).
While the results didn’t show obvious growth throughout the season, our PLV metrics show that Caminero took several steps forward in his ability to make contact as he took more swings. He also became significantly more aggressive, which isn’t great, but it didn’t lead to more strikeouts, so I’m not overly concerned.
I doubt anyone would be shocked if Caminero put up 35-40 home runs in his first full tour of duty for the Rays, though between the ups and downs of being an inexperienced player and the fact that we haven’t quite seen him be the hitter we saw in the minor leagues in the majors, it’d be safer to expect 25-30 home runs and volatile ratios.
8. Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, BAL) — Westburg had a breakout in 2024 and looked like a very different hitter than what we saw in 2024. A big part of his success came from his aggressive approach early in counts, which I believe helped him put more power behind his swings. Had he remained healthy, he would have been on track to hit about 27 home runs, had the pace continued, and had Statcast numbers generally supported the results.
The only hesitation I have is how dramatic the changes were, seemingly out of nowhere. The two charts below are from 2023 and 2024, and it’s a huge shift in power. If Westburg remains the 2024 guy, this rank is definitely too low, but a regression toward the 2023 version would quickly turn him into a start-worthy but uninteresting fantasy player.
9. Mark Vientos (3B, NYM) — Vientos had a breakthrough in his age-24 season, hitting 27 bombs with a surprisingly strong .266 average. It may be tough to repeat the home run pace (roughly 39 over 162 games) in his first full season for the Mets. I do have concerns about how his strikeout rate steadily rose over the year while his performance steadily tapered off, but if Vientos can make adjustments as he goes, he could jump up a tier or two before we know it.
10. Jake Burger (1B/3B, TEX) — It took until July, but Burger finally unleashed the power we expected after he hit 34 home runs in 2023. In his 75 games from July 1 to the end of the season, Burger smashed 22 home runs and 15 doubles while hitting .278.
Streakiness comes with the territory when it comes to players with Burger’s pull-heavy, fly-ball-oriented profile, though some of that might be smoothed out by the dramatic improvement in the home ballpark as he moves from Miami to Texas, as Globe Life Field is a top-five park for right-handed home runs while his former home in Miami is the sixth-worst park for right-handed home runs.
It will, at times, be brutal, but Burger should get to 30 home runs in Texas, and while Texas’s offense is undoubtedly better than Miami’s, the counting stats won’t really change unless Burger can work his way up the batting order. Roster Resource has him slotted into the eighth spot, and while he may start in that role, there are plenty of opportunities to move up past guys like Evan Carter and Adolis García if he starts swinging a hot bat. If Burger gets locked into the fifth spot, he could very well approach 100 RBI, though 90 is a more realistic target.
11. Matt Chapman (3B, SFG) — Chapman has exactly 27 home runs in three of the last four seasons with around 76 RBI, so that didn’t come as much of a surprise. What was a surprise was the 15 stolen bases with the Giants, as he had just 11 in 861 games prior to 2024. They were actually spread out across the season, so there’s a non-zero chance he gets back to double digits in 2025. Chapman also did a nice job avoiding any debilitating strikeout spikes like we’ve seen in seasons past.
Chapman’s path to another finish inside the top-40 hitters requires a repeat in the improved strikeout rate and stolen bases and the 98 runs scored while hitting fourth for a middling Giants’ offense. That’s a lot to bet on for a player heading into their age-32 season, though even if one or two of those things don’t come together, the 25-27 home runs and 75 RBI will always be there for us.
12. Alex Bregman (3B, BOS) — Bregman had a slow start, as did most Astros in 2024. Still, from June 1 to the end of the season, he slashed .284/.337/.500. His 6.9% walk rate is by far the lowest we’ve seen from him since his first full season in 2017, but he managed to perform at a high level across the board in all areas (except OBP) without the walks.
Bregman is famous for his pull-heavy approach to fly balls. He doesn’t hit the ball exceptionally hard or far, but it’s usually enough to get over the fence close to the foul pole in left field or, in the case of his new home, to bounce off the Green Monster.
Boston is unlikely to help Bregman increase his home run totals, but the boost to his batting average feels almost too obvious as the Monster will turn Bregman into a doubles machine and give life to some of those pulled fly balls that don’t quite clear the fence. The move to second base should also increase his value (which I am already accounting for here).
Tier 4
13. Alec Bohm (1B/3B, PHI) — Bohm finished as a top-60 player per the FanGraphs player rater thanks to his fantastic start to the season, hitting .300 in the first half with 10 home runs and 68 RBI over 82 games, which over an entire season would have been 20 home runs and over 130 RBI. That’s a Freddie Freeman clone in terms of production.
Alas, the breakout into stardom was not meant to be. Over his remaining 61 games (he missed a few weeks in September due to injury), he hit just .253 with five home runs and 29 RBI, which would have been 13 home runs and about 75 RBI over a full season. That’s not even a top-150 hitter (per FanGraphs, he was the 194th-best fantasy hitter in the same tier as Jared Triolo and Santiago Espinal).
Throughout a full season, Bohm’s floor is safe as he should keep hitting fifth or so for the Phillies and should hit around 15 home runs with a decent number of RBI (he has exactly 97 in each of the last two seasons). His reliance on BABIP due to his contact-oriented profile and preference to hit the ball up the middle or the opposite way makes him mostly a dull floor play in 12-teamers.
Those of you in points leagues or who play deep roto will value Bohm a lot more than I do here. He’s a solid floor play for ratios and decent counting stats, which will either make a lot of sense or no sense at all at this stage of your draft.
14. Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) — Once again, Lewis missed significant time through the season due to injury. His on-field performance was not as dynamic as we saw in his 58 games back in 2023, but before going down with a second injury, he blasted 10 home runs in just 24 games while slashing .292/.354/.685. After that second IL stint, the results were far from glamorous, but I’m less concerned about that.
The concern, obviously, is whether Lewis can stay healthy. A healthy Royce Lewis is capable of finishing as a top-15 to top-20 hitter based on the 152 games we’ve seen already (33 home runs, a .268/.321/.497 line, and 185 combined runs and RBI), though in reality, a 130-game season would be a massive win and well worth this rank.
15. Eugenio Suárez (3B, ARI) — Heading into play on July 1 after 80 games played, Suárez had a pitiful 66 wRC+ with just six home runs and was on his way to his worst season to date. Then, out of nowhere, the light bulb flipped on, and Eugenio went off on one of the hottest tears of any player in the league, hitting 24 home runs over his next 86 games (a 45-home run pace over an entire season with 63 runs scored, 66 RBI, and a 155 wRC+.
I don’t doubt that Suárez can hit 30 home runs again in 2025, as he’s done it in five of the last six full seasons, and 85-95 RBI should be in play, though the rest of the contributions all are suspect to one degree or another based on track record. Suárez is just as capable of being unrosterable as a game-changer for months at a time, so be prepared for both outcomes if you scoop him up.
16. Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, HOU) — Paredes is the king of pulled fly balls, and the trade to Houston gives him an ideal place to park those pulled fly balls, thanks to the Crawford Boxes. I’m targeting Paredes everywhere because I love his extreme nature and think he can return to 30 home runs, but I also admit that he looked putrid for the Cubs. Statcast has been waiting for the bottom to fall out on Paredes due to his low exit velocities, but I think there’s a chance for him to be a top-75 hitter.
Don’t just take my word for it, though: Michael Hanlon also included Paredes in his article on sleepers at third base.
Tier 5
17. Nolan Arenado (3B, STL) — Arenado would have been a bit higher had he ended up in Houston due to it being a great place for right-handed pull hitters to hit dingers, but as of now, he remains in St. Louis.
For the second consecutive year, Arenado has given us the worst full season of his career, hitting just 16 home runs and driving in 71 runners. Thanks to his .272 batting average and ample playing time, he finished inside the top 100 hitters, but it was not something anyone would be terribly happy with considering Arenado’s ADP and track record.
Arenado is highly likely to play 150 games and bat fourth for a potentially not-terrible offense, so he does have value as a third baseman who can hit 20 home runs with a good batting average while driving in 80-90 runners if things go just a little better than they did in 2024. He probably won’t be much worse than that, even if it’s another rough year, but it’s not likely he will do much better, either.
18. Brendan Donovan (2B/3B/OF, STL) — Donovan’s profile is carried by his contact ability and batting average, but as long as he stays healthy he should find his way to double-digit home runs. As of now, he’s projected to bat fourth for the Cardinals instead of leading off, so he’ll be in a good position to drive in runners despite the limited pop. Donovan isn’t a terribly sexy pick, and his upside is somewhat limited, but ratios and RBI can be tough to find later in the draft and Donovan is here to provide. It’s also worth noting that in Yahoo formats Donovan just barely gets away with third base eligibility thanks to his five starts there last season, adding to his already useful second base and outfield eligibilities.
19. Josh Jung (3B, TEX) — Jung is a classic masher from the right side, albeit one who is mostly unwilling to walk unless you make him. Jung has more than enough pop to hit 35 home runs if he keeps the strikeouts under control; however, that is not something he’s been able to do with any consistency thus far in his career.
That’s all there is to it. The elder Jung has enormous power upside and could be a top-seven third baseman in 2025. He also could be unrosterable due to strikeout issues.
20. Luis Rengifo (2B/3B, LAA) — Rengifo stole just 18 bases in 448 career major league games prior to 2024 and had a 37th percentile sprint speed in 2024, so of course, he swiped 24 bags in 78 games. It makes total sense!
Unfortunately, we only got those 78 games out of Rengifo last season, as a wrist injury shut him down for the year. Rengifo has never played more than 127 games in any of the last three years.
We should be able to get 15-17 home runs with 20-23 stolen bases, though the latter could be a lot more if he runs at anywhere close to the same rate as he did last season. Rengifo is projected to hit second behind Taylor Ward and in front of Mike Trout, though Zach Neto might have something to say about that if he starts swinging a hot bat.
I’m hedging a little on Rengifo’s stolen base totals just because it was so out of nowhere for him to be on a 50-steal pace, and that uncertainty, combined with his lengthy injury history, is what keeps him so low in these rankings. I wouldn’t be surprised if his current ADP range shoots up a bit as we get closer to the spring, though, especially if Rengifo looks healthy.
21. Max Muncy (3B, LAD) — Muncy missed about three months of action in the middle of the season, but when healthy, he showed he still has the skills that have made him fantasy relevant for the last seven seasons. Muncy hasn’t played 140 games in a season since 2021, but there’s more than enough pop in his bat to get to 25 home runs even if he only plays 120-130 games. He’ll hurt your batting average, sure, but Muncy gets on base a ton thanks to a career 15.0% walk rate and there should be plenty of RBI hitting fifth for the Dodgers. Age and durability will keep him down on draft boards, but if you missed out on the elite third baseman in the early rounds, Muncy is a player you should stash in your queue.
22. Connor Norby (2B/3B, MIA) — Norby’s profile is a fairly typical one in that he strikes out in bunches and also could hit 25 home runs. Miami isn’t an ideal place to hit, but it is ideal in the sense that they are likely to just let him play and develop at the major league level. We saw Norby’s walk rate improve towards the end of last season, and if he can bring that improvement into 2025 he should easily outperform this ranking.
23. Ryan McMahon (3B, COL) — Ryan McMahon hits third every day for the Rockies, and he’s fine (as far as MLB hitters who bat third go). He’ll hit 20 home runs, have surprisingly few runs and RBI considering his volume, and hit .240. You won’t roster him all season in a 12-teamer, but you might grab him for a homestand or a hot streak here and there. Deep-league players will appreciate his volume a lot more than I do.
Tier 6
24. Matt Shaw (3B, CHC) — Shaw has the tools to be a 20 home run, 20 stolen base guy as a rookie, but like most rookies, he will need to quickly adapt to major league pitches, breakers in particular, to shine. Shaw has always done well to avoid strikeouts and should bring that skill to the big leagues, but if he can’t find his footing, I expect to see weak contact until he figures it out. The Cubs should give Shaw plenty of time, though, so it’s a shot worth shooting late in shallow leagues.
25. Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) — Castro brings expansive eligibility and a leadoff role to your roster, and that alone is worth a spot in your queue late if you have limited room on your bench for hitters. Castro finished just inside the top-100 hitters last season in large part due to his 89 runs scored, though he’s also shown he can steal a few bases as well and is a threat to steal 20 or more bases if he gets the green light again. Even if he doesn’t, Castro’s double-digit home runs and steals, along with the leadoff job, should be enough to bring runs scored and a stable floor across multiple positions if you took one or two extra risks earlier on.
26. Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, TBR) — Stop me if you’ve heard this archetype before — Morel is a guy with loads of power and major contact issues. Morel improved his strikeout rate last season but still whiffed a ton in the zone and hit way too many pop-ups. If the Rays can get Morel to make better decisions more consistently, then we might be looking at a guy who hits 25 home runs and steals 10 bases while hitting .240. Otherwise, Morel will end up being a streamer for those trying to catch the comet’s tail when everything clicks for him in short intervals.
27. Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B, CIN) — If Candelario wins a starting job for the Reds, he could easily hit 25 home runs over 140 games and pile up some decent counting stats in the process. If he winds up somewhere less friendly to hitters (which is everywhere outside of Colorado) or gets a platoonmate, he’s not someone I’d draft. This ranking splits the difference, as the Reds want to give Candelario a job.
28. Maikel Garcia (2B/3B, KCR) — Losing the leadoff spot is a big blow to Garcia’s fantasy value as it turns his runs scored total from a positive to a negative as Garcia is now likely to hit somewhere in the bottom-third of the top-heavy Kansas City lineup.
That said, Garcia should still play at third base for the Royals every day. He won’t hit double-digit home runs, he won’t score as much as he used to, and he won’t drive in many runners, but Garcia can still put a bunch of balls in play and steal 30 or more bases.
29. Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) — Vierling is likely the starting right fielder for the Tigers, and he’ll also fill in at first or third against lefties. While I think he can come close to replicating the 16 home runs and .735 OPS he had in 2024, it’s highly unlikely Vierling will get 104 starts hitting in the top third of the order this season. That’s the only difference I see in what to expect this season. Like many others in this tier, Vierling isn’t exciting, but he brings a bit of power, plenty of playing time, and hopefully somewhere around 70 RBI with decent ratios, which can fill a need in deeper formats.
30. Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) — The swing and miss is an obvious concern, but once Mayo gets a feel for major league pitching, his big-time pull-side power should be a significant threat in the Orioles’ lineup. Camden Yards’ new dimensions should make it less intimidating for right-handed hitters, and Mayo has the pop to hit 25 or more home runs if he starts getting the ball in the air.
Of course, the real issue for Mayo is playing time. While the Orioles talk like they want to give him a shot on the major league roster, there isn’t a starting role waiting for him with Holliday, Westburg, and Mountcastle taking up the bases and a logjam of veteran right-handers on the bench. He’ll need some luck and some strong performances in the spring and in the minors to get a shot, but if Mayo gets the call, I expect much better results than we saw last season.
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Joey Ortiz
Dylan Moore
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Josh Rojas
Jose Miranda
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Ernie Clement
José Tena
José Caballero
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Yoán Moncada
Miguel Vargas
Caleb Durbin
Brett Baty
Noelvi Marte
Blaze Alexander
Oswaldo Cabrera
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)