Before each season begins, there is hope for every MLB franchise. For some, that hope might fade after a 1-5 start, but there is always a preseason case to be made for all teams to make a run and potentially qualify for the playoffs. Oftentimes, a dark horse or two surprises everyone. A prime example of this would be the 2024 Detroit Tigers, who came out of nowhere over the final two months of the regular season to claim an AL wild-card spot.
Flip the scenario the other way, and a case can also be made against every team missing out on the playoffs. No one is invincible, even the juggernauts. If a few players fall by the wayside and end up having off years or landing on the IL for a significant amount of time, those preseason favorites may no longer be sure things.
Beginning with the American League, here is a case for and against every team making the playoffs.
AL East
2024: 91-71 (wild card)
Case for: This is still a very young yet proven team that has qualified for the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. Every player in their projected Opening Day lineup is in their 20s except outfielder Cedric Mullins, who turned 30 in October. With a young budding star in Gunnar Henderson leading the way and rising talents like Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg hitting behind him, it should be three straight October appearances for the O’s. If 21-year-old Jackson Holliday flashes the skills that made him the first overall pick in the ’22 MLB draft and rebounds from his dismal rookie campaign, this offense could be the best in the American League.
Case against: As good as the offense is on paper, the pitching staff could be problematic, especially without last year’s ace, Corbin Burnes (signed with Arizona). If their budding No. 1 arm, Grayson Rodriguez, has another injury-prone season, this rotation could be in dire need of an upgrade. Rodriguez will start the campaign on the injured list with elbow inflammation after missing significant time in ’24 with lat and shoulder issues. Can the Orioles rely on Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and 41-year-old Charlie Morton to lead the staff in Rodriguez’s absence? Hard to picture at this time.
Gut feeling: The offensive talent alone will keep them in the playoff race, and the Orioles will have just enough pitching to secure a playoff berth.
2024: 81-81 (missed playoffs)
Case for: The one thing Boston can’t be blamed for this year is the lack of effort by the front office to bring in new pieces and hopefully improve a .500 team from last year. There’s never a good time in today’s game to say “if healthy.” Despite the phrase meaning more now than ever before, given the ridiculous amount of year-round injuries across the league, this will be one of the few teams where the words “if healthy” can be applied without it looking like a copout if things go awry in Beantown.
As it stands today, with the additions of starting pitchers Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and even the aging flamethrower Aroldis Chapman coming out of the bullpen, the staff already looks twice as good as it did last season. With the addition of two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman to an already-talented infield, Boston should be in the AL East race from start to finish.
Case against: It is possible that the star of the Red Sox, Rafael Devers, struggles in what is likely going to be a DH role for most of 2025. Devers is a fantastic hitter, but based on some preseason comments he made about not wanting to give up his position to a clearly better third baseman in Bregman, it could prove consequential if he’s unable to adjust. Of course, going back to the case of staying healthy. The list of injuries between newly acquired Crochet and Buehler is long. If each spends more than a month on the IL as they’ve been known to do, then the Sox, who will already be without veterans Brayan Bello (shoulder) and Lucas Giolito (hamstring) to start the year, will not make the playoffs.
Gut feeling: Boston competes in the first half, but injuries catch up to them late in the year, and they narrowly miss the playoffs.
2024: 94-68 (won AL East)
Case for: There’s been a lot of unfortunate news out of the Bronx this month after losing Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery), Luis Gil (out three months with a lat strain), and other less serious injury updates regarding the team’s pitching staff. However, the Yankees still have Aaron Judge. As long as last year’s AL MVP continues to dominate opposing pitching, his team will stay in the playoff hunt, even without the services of superstar Juan Soto. If acquisitions Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt find any semblance of what made them previous MVP winners, then the protection behind Judge will be as good as any in the American League.
Case against: It’s not going to be easy to replace Cole atop the rotation. Even with the addition of former Atlanta lefty Max Fried, the biggest question with New York in 2025 is whether or not he and fellow southpaw Carlos Rodón can stay on the field for an entire season. Neither pitcher has been known to have long stretches of favorable health recently, and even though the Yankees’ bats should be good enough to keep just about any pitching staff in a playoff race, it’s going to be difficult to stop opponents from scoring in a division stacked with offensive firepower.
Gut feeling: The offense can’t make up for the lack of pitching depth, and the Bronx Bombers miss out on the postseason for the second time in three years.
2024: 80-82 (missed playoffs)
Case for: One thing we know about the Rays is that they are never going to be bad. The front office finds players seemingly out of nowhere and always turns them into something respectable. This is the Tampa Bay way. The starting rotation is filled with promise as long as everyone stays on the field. If Tampa Bay gets a full season from Drew Rasmussen and two-time All-Star Shane McClanahan, then the pitching staff will keep this squad in a lot of games despite the probability of a below-average offense.
Case against: The Rays won’t be calling Tropicana Field home in 2025 after the damage from Hurricane Milton proved to be too much to overcome. Instead, they’ll be playing at the Yankees’ spring training facility, Steinbrenner Field. Tampa Bay loves playing at Tropicana and, over the last three seasons, dominated visiting teams with a record of 146-97 at home. How will the Rays fare in a new park? The Rays were one of the worst offensive teams in the American League in ’24 with a .230 batting average, a .302 OBP, and ranked second-to-last in the majors with a .366 slugging percentage. There were very few impactful bats added in the offseason. Unless 21-year-old Junior Caminero goes crazy in his first full season, then it’s going to be a long grind in Tampa Bay.
Gut feeling: Not enough offense means not enough wins. Rays find a way to hover around 75 victories but fall well short of the playoffs.
2024: 74-88 (missed playoffs)
Case for: If you missed 7 Bold Predictions for 2025, I’ll save you some drama by admitting that the Blue Jays are my pick to win the AL East. For a team that made the playoffs in three of the last five seasons and hadn’t been under .500 since 2019 until last year, it’s difficult to predict that the Jays won’t be a legit AL East contender. The addition of former Baltimore slugger Anthony Santander (44 home runs, 102 RBIs in ’24) to a lineup that truly had only one consistent everyday player last year named Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should improve Canada’s team immensely. Expect a bounce-back year from shortstop Bo Bichette, and suddenly, opposing pitchers have three scary bats to deal with atop the Jays’ lineup as opposed to only one in ’24.
Case against: The starting rotation added 40-year-old three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer. However, Toronto’s staff is not comprised of spring chickens, as the youngest projected starter on the Opening Day roster is Bowden Francis (28). The others not named Scherzer are Kevin Gausman (34), José Berríos (30), and Chris Bassitt (36). If the Jays’ pitching breaks down midway through the season and Bichette remains in a similar offensive funk that saw him have a career-low .598 OPS in 2024, this franchise won’t be playing in October.
Gut feeling: The rotation holds up, Bichette finds his swing, and the Blue Jays win the AL East.
AL Central
2024: 41-121 (missed playoffs)
Case for: It isn’t easy to make a case for a franchise that had the most losses in modern-day history last season. Short of former White Sox legends Frank Thomas, Paul Konerko, and Magglio Ordonez coming out of retirement to man a few positions held by a bunch of unknowns, the White Sox won’t be going anywhere in 2025. Maybe outfielder Joey Gallo joins the rotation or bullpen after it was announced the White Sox released the 31-year-old nonroster invitee after going 2-for-20 with 11 strikeouts in spring action. Gallo announced that he’d like to pitch, and perhaps, at some point this season, the Sox will give him a chance if things get ugly. If Gallo can keep opposing bats anywhere close to his career .194 batting average as a hitter, then maybe there’s something special on the horizon.
Case against: The lone hope in the Chicago lineup is Luis Robert Jr., but it’s very likely that the 26-year-old will be gone before the trade deadline. The offense will be horrid once again, and the rotation’s main weapon was Crochet, but he was traded to Boston in the offseason, leaving very little hope for White Sox fans.
Gut feeling: Somehow, they’ll avoid challenging their 121-loss record and win between 50 and 60 contests. Whatever the case, a last-place finish is inevitable.
2024: 92-69 (won AL Central)
Case for: José Ramírez. Maybe this is the year that the five-time top-five finisher for the AL MVP award breaks through and takes the trophy home. If so, it probably means that Cleveland defends its division crown. Ramirez is as consistent a hitter as there is, and he plays nearly every day. Having his bat in a lineup that features some quality contact hitters should keep the Guardians’ offense afloat. However, if Cleveland has any hope of returning to the postseason, it will ultimately come down to its ridiculously talented bullpen. Last year, the Guardians were the only team in MLB to have a reliever ERA under three (2.57). With the bulk of the ‘pen still intact and the best closer in the game, Emmanuel Clase, finishing contests in Cleveland, it’s difficult to argue against the Guardians returning to the playoffs.
Case against: The starting rotation has some question marks. Despite re-signing their ace, Shane Bieber, to a one-year deal in the offseason, he’s not expected back until the summer after Tommy John surgery kept him on the shelf for most of 2024. First baseman Josh Naylor was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and it will be difficult to replace his 31 homers. Other than Ramirez, where will the power come from?
Gut feeling: Since 2018, Cleveland has qualified for the playoffs every other year, which means if that trend continues, it will miss out in 2025. But with the ultra-talented pen and a veteran-filled lineup surrounding one of the best hitters in the game, the Guardians will find a way back to October as a wild-card team.
2024: 86-76 (wild card)
Case for: It took an incredible 34-19 record over the final two months last season for Detroit to taste the playoffs for the first time since 2014. It also took a dominant year from AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who finished with a league-best 18 wins and a 2.39 ERA. Why not again? Right-hander Jack Flaherty returns to the Tigers’ rotation after being traded by Detroit to the Los Angeles Dodgers at last year’s deadline. Between Flaherty and Skubal, the Tigers have arguably the best one-two punch in the division. If youngsters Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe reach their potential this season, then the Tigers’ rotation will be good enough to carry a questionable offense.
Case against: The offense. They found a way to get timely hits when they needed to in 2024. The question is, can they do it again? Colt Keith and Riley Greene will have to stay healthy and productive for this offense to score enough runs consistently. If shortstop Javier Báez could ever show signs of what made him a runner-up for the 2018 NL MVP with the Chicago Cubs, then there wouldn’t be nearly as many concerns with the bats as there are currently. Unfortunately, Baez is no longer an offensive threat and hasn’t hit over .240 since joining Detroit in 2022.
Gut feeling: They’ll stay in the race for a bit, but ultimately, Skubal and the rest of the rotation won’t be able to keep enough runs off the board to give the paltry offense a chance.
2024: 86-76 (wild card)
Case for: Bobby Witt Jr. appears to be on his way to a special career in Kansas City and leaves little doubt that an AL MVP award is coming soon after finishing second for the honor to Judge last season. Arguably, the best all-around offensive weapon in the sport is surrounded by a lineup of veteran infielders that includes mainstays like catcher Salvador Perez and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, as well as new acquisition, former Reds leadoff man Jonathan India. The top of the Royals’ lineup could be one of the best in the American League, and certainly the AL Central.
Case against: For as solid as Kansas City’s rotation is, the bullpen could use some work. Last season, the Royals’ ‘pen wasn’t great, and it looks like a closer-by-committee strategy could be in the works for most of ’25. If this franchise adds a couple of legit end-of-game options to the ‘pen, then finding a weakness on this roster would be a difficult task. However, as it stands now, the end-of-game situation could be a major issue for a franchise hoping to make it back-to-back postseason appearances.
Gut feeling: K.C. finds a way to overcome the bullpen issues. The rotation led by Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha has another good campaign. Witt wins his first MVP award, and the Royals hold off Cleveland to win their first AL Central title since 2015.
2024: 82-80 (missed playoffs)
Case for: Two 29-year-olds, Pablo López and Bailey Ober, along with 28-year-old Joe Ryan, form a respectable top three in the Twins’ rotation. Despite all the injuries last season to the offense and a semi-down year from their ace, Lopez, by his standards, Minnesota still won 82 games and hung around in the wild-card race. If the rotation can look at all like it did in 2023 when it had the best starter ERA in the American League (3.82), then the bullpen, led by setup man Griffin Jax and closer Jhoan Duran, should be protecting a lot of leads late in games.
Case against: Injuries, injuries, injuries. It’s already started for Minnesota before the campaign has even gotten underway. Third baseman Royce Lewis appears to be on track to have a similar career path as fellow teammate and one-time hopeful star Byron Buxton. Lewis will start the season on the IL with a hamstring strain. In three years as a big leaguer, the talented infielder has played in only 152 contests due to injuries. Considering that last season, 10-year veteran Buxton managed to play over 100 games for only the second time in his career, and given the never-ending list of injuries ruining the prime years of shortstop Carlos Correa, it’s easy to make a case against Minnesota qualifying for the 2025 playoff field.
Gut feeling: Lewis, Buxton, and Correa must stay relatively healthy for the Twins to stay in the playoff hunt. Is it too much to ask each of them to suit up for 110 games or more? I think so. Therefore, it’s another missed postseason opportunity in Minnesota.
AL West
Athletics
2024: 69-93 (missed playoffs)
Case for: It’s hard to pick a team without a location next to their name. No longer the Oakland Athletics, the franchise has chosen to go with just Athletics as their full name until further notice. Maybe the change in location to Health Sutter Park in West Sacramento will give this team a boost. Maybe Brent Rooker continues to evolve into a fearsome right-handed power bat and eclipses 40 home runs and 120 RBIs. If Rooker can get plenty of help offensively, and newly acquired Luis Severino leads a potentially respectable rotation with lefties JP Sears and Jeffrey Springs, then the A’s could surprise everyone and compete for a playoff spot.
Case against: Where’s the offense behind Rooker going to come from? The AL West is loaded with high-quality arms, and it’s going to be difficult for the A’s to score enough runs to compete. Severino signed a three-year, $67 million deal to be the staff ace. Even though the right-hander had a solid campaign with the New York Mets in ’24, winning 11 games behind a 3.91 ERA, it’s too much to ask for an oft-injured 31-year-old to carry the load for a squad that hasn’t made the playoffs in four years.
Gut feeling: Not enough offense. Not enough pitching. Not enough wins. No playoff berth for the A’s.
2024: 88-73 (won AL West)
Case for: Despite the losses of stars Kyle Tucker and Bregman on the offensive side (two of the primary reasons the Astros have made eight straight playoff appearances), this roster is still filled with quality bats. Jose Altuve continues to pad his Hall of Fame-worthy statistics as he enters his 15th season. The always-dangerous Yordan Alvarez is guaranteed to mash at least 30 homers a year while reaching base at a near .400 clip. Former Arizona Diamondbacks Gold Glove first baseman Christian Walker joins the ‘Stros after three straight seasons of 25-plus homers.
Pitching-wise, the rotation is formidable and returns Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and young strikeout arm Spencer Arrighetti. At the backend of the bullpen is Bryan Abreu and closer Josh Hader. The 2025 Astros have far more strengths than weaknesses.
Case against: It could finally be that time for the Astros to miss out on the postseason, and the big-name losses like the aforementioned Tucker and Bregman are too much to overcome. Can the bottom half of the order keep up with the big boys at the top and deliver when needed? If not, Houston might struggle to score runs.
Gut feeling: The cases against this team are minuscule. If you take away the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, the Astros have won every AL West crown since 2017. This is, arguably, the most complete roster in the American League, and a fifth consecutive division title seems likely.
2024: 63-99 (missed playoffs)
Case for: This is a difficult case to make. Mike Trout is moving to right field with hopes of actually staying healthy for more than half the season. If Trout has access to a time machine and finds his former MVP self, while also staying on the field for 150 games or more, then maybe some of the other offensive bats, like Jorge Soler and young first baseman Nolan Schanuel, can drive him home enough to keep Los Angeles competitive. It would also help if Trout’s time machine could go back to 2002 and pick up Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus, and Garret Anderson from that world championship squad.
Case against: The rotation is filled with aging veterans led by left-handers Tyler Anderson (35) and Yusei Kikuchi (33). After the lefties, the next three in line are José Soriano, 35-year-0ld Kyle Hendricks, and their projected No. 5 starter, Jack Kochanowicz, who, as a rookie last season, only struck out 25 batters in just over 65⅓ innings pitched. The bottom line is that the Angels’ rotation doesn’t have a single pitcher that opposing offenses fear. The bullpen is filled with mostly unknowns, and keeping runs off the board will be nearly impossible for a franchise that has only been to the postseason one time in the Trout era.
Gut feeling: Make it 10 straight losing seasons for the Halos and a second consecutive last-place finish in the AL West.
2024: 85-77 (missed playoffs)
Case for: The team will go as far as their pitching takes them. Is there a more complete five-man rotation in the American League than what the Seattle Mariners have? Last year’s innings pitched leader, 27-year-old Logan Gilbert, is the ace of the staff, which includes three other talented pitchers under age 30. George Kirby is the No.2 option in the rotation and will begin the season on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Kirby will be joined by Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and the oldest of the five, 32-year-old Luis Castillo. Pitching alone will keep the Mariners in the playoff hunt once again.
Case against: They may have some of the best pitching in the big leagues, but on the other side of the coin, their offense last season was, arguably, the worst in MLB, behind only the White Sox. Last year, Seattle’s team batting average was .224. Considering the Mariners made no significant offseason upgrades to their lineup and are once again going to live and die by the bat of young phenom Julio Rodriguez, there’s very little to suggest that this offense will be much better than the ’24 version. Rodriguez will need to cut down on his strikeout rate and focus on getting back to his ’23 form that saw the center fielder hit 32 homers and drive in 103 runs. If that doesn’t happen, and veterans Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, and Jorge Polanco all hit well below .240 again, this team will be toast.
Gut feeling: Seattle has finished one game short of the playoffs in each of the last two campaigns. Their fate is likely coming down to the final week of the regular season again, and despite their talented pitching staff, the offense will come up short, leaving the Mariners narrowly out of the postseason picture for a third straight year.
2024: 78-84 (missed playoffs)
Case for: The Rangers possess the most dangerous lineup in the American League when at its best. This is a scary offense that two years ago helped lead the franchise to its first World Series title. Last season, almost everyone from that ’23 championship team declined statistically, and nothing really clicked on the offensive side.
Considering the pitching staff was once again without the services of two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, and the only player to post double-digit wins was veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, I’d say, all things considered, they were fortunate to win 78 games. The Rangers’ offense will certainly be back with a vengeance and could easily match the 2023 output, especially if young guns Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Josh Jung stay healthy and produce. Regardless of whether or not deGrom stays on the field, the lineup alone will make the Rangers a legit AL West contender.
Case against: Back to deGrom. He has to be mentioned as the key piece to a pitching staff that is so desperate for help that they signed the player with the most losses in MLB over the last four seasons on March 18. Patrick Corbin, the former Washington Nationals two-time All-Star turned terrible, joins the Rangers after it was announced that Jon Gray landed on the 60-day IL with a right forearm fracture. If Corbin is ready for the start of the year, he will be the only left-hander in the rotation. After going 6-13 with a 5.62 ERA and a .298 opponent batting average last season, it’s fair to make a case against Texas qualifying for the playoffs despite the potent offense. DeGrom must stay on the field for the majority of the campaign.
Gut feeling: I’m sticking with the former case. It’s easy to assume that deGrom won’t be on the field for the entire year. I’d be shocked if he is. However, Texas managed to find a way to a World Series title despite having an average pitching staff in ’23. The Rangers will finish second behind Houston and claim a wild-card berth.
2025 AL Playoff Teams
AL East winner: Blue Jays
AL Central winner: Royals
AL West winner: Astros
Wild-card teams: Orioles, Guardians, Rangers