Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is: We’re already HALFWAY THERE! Halfway there! Halfway there! Halfway there! And if you’ve gotten a late start in your race, it’s time to take inventory and see if you got what it takes. Now, I’m not saying throw the towel in if your team isn’t top of the pops… I will admit I just announced I’m gearing for a rebuild after seeing one of my teams fall to 9th in the morning… only to realize I’m still a few points from 6th. Oops. Though for those in redrafts, you can still make big moves, and never quit (at least not yet). On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Luis Garcia Jr. (1B/2B, Washington Nationals)
Get the cheesecake ready, because It’s been quite the week for Juniors. Obviously Junior Caminero is a bit too rostered to get written up here, but Garcia, Jr. was left for dead in many shallow leagues in May as the combination of lack of production and frustrating platoon situation gave him the boot. But his peripherals suggested all along a turnaround was likely, and if you held firm, you’re getting rewarded now, as he’s hit an incredible .556 with 5 homers over the past week in just 18 AB, and 9 .345 homers with 9 homers over the past 3 weeks. It’s pretty odd though that on arguably the best offense in the National League, he only got 8 RBI with those 5 taters. That brings him to a season line of .280 with 16 homers… tying his homer total from last year at the halfway point.
I have long been a fan of him as he’s treated like a boring veteran despite still being just 25 and improving his offensive game every single year (although last year looked worse on the surface, there were still slight improvements in hard contact under the hood). While he’s obviously not going to stay this hot, here’s another exciting development… he just hit a career-best MaxEV, of 114 mph (his best mark over the past two years was 111.7 mph). Combined with a career-best launch angle and an average exit velocity 2 mph harder than the next highest of his career at 92.3 mph, I think this is a fine “buy high” scenario where I would be willing to pony up to get him, since he could easily hit .290 with 30 HR if he can keep this up. Even in 10-team OBP formats, it’s time to get onboard, as he’s starting to look more and more like Ketel Marte.
Manny Machado (3B, San Diego Padres)
When you’re having trouble getting a trade across the line, the easiest line is often the Mendoza line. And here, we have a Mannydoza line. Despite having one of the worst batting averages for a regular in the the game still at just .189, it does come with 16 homers, and unlike the dovetailing Austin Riley, he was unlucky but it’s finally turning around (and in a way that’s less obvious than teammate Fernando Tatis Jr., whose buy-low window has basically closed.
But even though Machado has kicked up the power recently with 16 homers, Machado’s terrible batting average still is a tricky mental barrier to overcome. Who wants a sub-.200 on their time, right? But I really think his second half will be back to Manny being Manny. For one, for a player who has had a league-average BABIP (.300) over his career, it makes zero sense that his current BABIP stands at .191. That’s one of the worst in the majors, and one reserved for the weakest contact around. Now it is true that his power is down across the board, with his MaxEV of 110 down 5 full MPH from last year’s mark, and his barrel rate and HardHit% down as well. But they’re still at least better than league average, and his contact rate is unchanged from last year. With his bat rounding into form with a .380 rolling 50PA xwOBA, I’d bet on him hitting at last .240 the rest of the year and power numbers close to his career marks. While he’s unlikely to have been dropped even in 10-teamers, the true buy-low window has started to close but until his batting average crosses the rubicon, there’s still room to run on an inattentive or impatient owner.
Honorable Mention: Dansby Swanson (SS, Chicago Cubs) – Ignore the batting average, and remember that Dansby is clockwork. One way or another, he’ll probably end the season at roughly the same value he was preseason. He’s hitting .340 with 6 homers and 4 SB the past two weeks, so it might be too late, but in slow reacting leagues he’ll probably be a top 10 SS the rest of the way.
Honorable Mention: Jackson Merrill (OF, San Diego Padres) – He seems lost at the plate, but at least he’s found himself on the basepaths. He has EIGHTEEN TIMES the amount of nabbed bags he had last year. That’s pacing for 36 SB, which makes him at worst like a 2025 Oneal Cruz, which is a pretty darn high floor (but I still hope against think it’ll be better than that..
12-team
Francisco Alvarez (C, New York Mets)
Maybe we should call him FranSisqo, because hit one-hit is the solo Dong Song. He’s walloped 3 homers this week, though of course, because it’s the Mets, he’s only had himself to drive in. He’s a bit of a forgotten man in shallower leagues, as the Mets have been generally hard to look at, and hitting the halfway mark of the season with a single digit homer total, especially with the current catcher environment, is not ideal. Of course, he has been injured off and on throughout the season, and it’s worth wondering if the young catcher will remain snakebitten… but at least while healthy, the bat has looked legit.
He’s been hitting and excellent .262 with 5 homers (unfortunately just 9 RBI) in 65 AB, and I still think this could be the start of a bigger surge. He returned with a slow start (to be expected) but has turned up the heat with a .354 rolling xwOBA over his past 50 PA, and has been a beast of the barrel with an elite 18% rate (97th percentile). Outside of the top performers at the position, that’s the most pop you’ll find here, and he’s an even better buy in dynasty leagues, as it’s often overlooked that he is still just 24, younger than most MLB catchers with their first cup of coffee. Add in 12-team formats.
Esmerlyn Valdez (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Nail tapping, close whispers, loud crack of a bat hitting a towering home run… Welcome to ASMRlyn Valdez. He’s obviously still a quite flawed player, which is why many of us, mere weeks ago, had a chance to add him for free after he struggled and was relegated to small side platoon work. (I’m thrilled to have nabbed him off the wire in one of my 30-team dynasty leagues at the salary minimum). But if you want him now, you have to pounce first and ask questions later, after he hit an incredible .571 with 4 homers this week in 18 AB (that’s a SLG% of 1.286 btw) with only 6 Ks in 21 ABs.
Now, it’s true that his whiff rate at present is pretty awful (a 16% SwStr% is bad, and his 67% Z-Contact% is somehow worse), but the power, oh man, THE POWER. Without going full Rece Hinds hype, the 22-year-old currently is rocking a 65% HardHit% and a downright RIDONKULOUS 34% barrel%. For reference, James Wood, the barrel leader in the majors this year, has a rate of 23%. Now I know this will likely regress, and I hope the contact rate has some positive regression. But if you’re truly going the midseason boom-or-bust, lightning in a bottle route… Well here’s your Esmerlyghtning.
Honorable Mention: Nico Hoerner (2B, Chicago Cubs) – He’s one of those guys I never draft, but I do think maybe the hate has gone too far. He’s still mired in an ugly slump and hasn’t stolen a base in the past 3 weeks, or even attempted one. Still, his peripherals suggest that he’s been mostly the same as usual and just unlucky (.287 xBA) with the lowest K% of his career at 7%. Buy low now, since the SBs should return when the hits do. Then again, in many 10-team leagues, he’s still over-rostered by teams asleep at the wheel.
15-team
Andrew Benintendi (OF, Chicago White Sox)
I cut him in May in a deep league…Andrew the day. This may not be fair to Benintendi, as there’s a fair argument he’s 12-team viable, and really it comes down to the depth of your format. But what I will say is he’s generally being overlooked due to his track record of mostly mediocrity, but I do think he’ll be one of the better surprise power bats of the second half. Why? Because he’s following his North Star… PullAiris. Yep, I went for it.
He’s reinvented himself as a hitter over the years, going from more of a Daylen Lile jack of all trades guy to the old man viability route (the Raul Ibanez or Mike Trout-lite.). His PullAir% which had been below league average at 12% in 2022-2023, jumped to 21% in 2024 climbed to 27% in 2025, and is now at an incredible 33%, which is nearing Isaac Paredes territory. But unlike Paredes, Benintendi actually does have power, with an 87th percentile HardHit%, though his K% climbed to 25% to get there. His expected stats thinks he deserves better than his current .241 with 10 HR as he’s rocking a .261 xBA and .447 xSLG, more impressive when you consider that this ignores his PullAir%. He’s now in an amazing lineup for run production, but still is thought of with the stink of old White Sox teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s nearing 30 homers by season’s end. He’s a sneaky buy-low and trade target for teams looking for the next shiny new toy when he’s the one you go to the matte with.
Endy Rodriguez (C/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates)
He didn’t want to disclose that he’s actually been a good hitter all this time… He must have signed an Endy Ayyyyyy. He’s 15-team viable now in single catcher leagues but also a strong second catcher in two-catcher formats, coming off a strong week in which he’s hitting .353 with a homer. I will note I wrote him up as a 15-team add about a month ago and he’s definitely risen since then despite taking the same slot, as his .270 AVG has caught up and comes with 4 homers and 2 SB, which seems weak before you forget it’s in only 89 AB.
Thanks to the struggles of Henry Davis and telling Bart “Sayonara”, he’s gotten a clear runway for reps at the position, which is increasingly hard to find. With the 26-year-old’s performance backed by double-digit barrel rates and an elite 93 mph average exit velocity, it’s still not too late to buy in, even if it means trading for him. His game really doesn’t have much of a weakness, aside from a strikeout rate below league-average… but again, he’s a catcher, and one who hits hard. I’d much rather have that right now than a scuffling Alejandro Kirk or a helium-puffed Keibert Ruiz. Because Endy can absolutely still be a Gabriel Moreno type, right down to the smattering of stolen bases.
Honorable Mention: Jacob Gonzalez (1B/2B, Chicago White Sox) – If you didn’t panic after his early struggles, you were rewarded with a .458 AVG and a whopping 12 RBI this week. While the big power hasn’t arrived yet, I’m encouraged by his quick adjustment to cut down on whiffs, with just 5 Ks in his last 36 PA. Don’t look at his Statcast and trust in him.
Honorable Mention: Griffin Conine (OF, Miami Marlins) – He kind of looks like a 2025 Kyle Stowers clone who just hasn’t gotten liftoff yet. He’s hitting .286 with 3 homers and 2 SBs in 56 PA, but with his excellent 53% HardHit% and 15% Barrel%, Statcast thinks he deserves to be hitting .320 and slugging .574. Small sample craziness, I know, but it’s still cheap to buy in, though I wish I sent offers last week when I first noticed and he was hitting .245.
Deep Leagues
Josh Lowe (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
Yes, he’s really dropped that…far. But I do love the bounce up from rock bottom… and I promise I’m not just making another Spongebob reference. While in the minors, he seems to have turned a corner, and I was immediately intrigued by his 113 mph MaxEV down there, about 5 mph higher than anything he hit in the majors this year. Since returning, he’s hitting .400 with a homer and a stolen base, and I think he’ll get runway for a revival. He’s still just 28, so don’t leave him for dead yet, since he has a history of huge streaks, and this could be the next one of the hot ones. Now I want some wings.
Ryan Kreidler (SS/3B/OF, Minnesota Twins)
I’m a bit annoyed that I was in on him early in many dynasty leagues but dropped him for prospects, only to realize I was right about Ryan all along. He still gets ignored even in many deep league conversations due to his 28-year-old journeyman status, and I get that. But I still contend he’s intriguing if you focus just on the numbers. He’s hitting .287 with 5 homers in just over 100 PA, which is excellent waiver wire power that now has rare multi-eligibility in most leagues, and while the average will likely come down due to whiff rate regression, I think this power rate can sustain, as he still has a strong above league average 75 mph bat speed and 10% Barrel%.
Honorable Mention: Henry Davis (C, Pittsburgh Pirates) – Yes, I know in my Endy writeup I basically called him worthless, but I still think he’s probably better than most backup catchers. His league average 21% K rate is much improved, his 75 mph bat speed is excellent, solid barrel rate, and an elite PullAir% of 30%. Still could have a big second half even in platoon role.
Honorable Mention: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (2B/3B, Athletics) One of those deep league dynasty plays I like because now is a good time to bet on a high-contact hitter playing half his games in Jackramento. He also has underrated raw pop as he maxed out at a cromulent 110 mph in Triple-A.
Honorable Mention: Luis Urias (2B, Toronto Blue Jays) – I just can’t quit U, rias. The low contact, high PullAir% approach in the happy fun ball revival era is worth a shot if he can get more reps.
Honorable Mention: Connor Wong (C, Boston Red Sox) – Gasper was demoted, Narvaez is below the Mendoza line, Connor is the biggest 50 PA xwOBA improver in the league… playing time may be spotty in the short term, let’s get on the Wong track.
SELL
Cal Raleigh (C, Seattle Mariners)
In Arabic, “Raleigh” means expensive, and boy did we all overpay. First off, DO NOT PANIC. Remember, this is for 10-team formats. Does Cal Raleigh have the upside to be a top 5 catcher still? Sure. But remember, in a 10-team single catcher format, he has been absolutely decimating you as you still hold onto the hope that he’ll turn it around, which is basically still having half your portfolio in GameStop stock when you bought at peak in 2021 because the MOASS is coming anyday now.
A few years ago maybe, the HODL argument would be stronger… catcher was weak, so you’d be settling for pretty lousy options on the wire. But those days are gone, and I even landed Gabriel Moreno on a 12-team wire, who could very well outperform him ROS. Raleigh has a .180 xBA that is worst in baseball, his K% is 5 points higher at 31%, but the biggest issue is that I don’t think the massive game power is there. He still has big bat speed (although a full tick down from last year) but he just can’t time it, as his SquaredUp% of 14% is pitiful and worst in baseball. He’s wearing a 110 MaxEV that’s over 5 mph down from last year and a 31% HardHit%, which is just 14th percentile! Those are both notably worse than teammate Cole Young (38% HardHit% and 111 mph MaxEV).
Look, we’ve seen from guys like Dansby Swanson that players can turn it around anyday. But right now, Cal’s xwOBA is getting worse, not better, and I’m not convinced he’s fully over this injury, and maybe we’ll learn it’s dogged him all season. If you hold for much longer, his trade value could continue to dwindle. But I do think in a trade league that someone is going to thing they’re a buy-low genius, and you might be able to still score a solid guy like Luis Garcia Jr or Braxton Ashcraft depending on the owner, and I’d probably still be okay with a player tier below that. If that’s the case, I’d much rather target than get stuck with a Calbatross.
Dishonorable Mention: Jo Adell (OF, Los Angeles Angels) – We’re at the halfway point, and the guy who hit 37 homers last year is on pace for just 21. Speaking of 21, lately his xwOBA is rolling in the deep leagues. And In a league where he made me champion last year, this year he set fire to my reign.
12-team
Ozzie Albies (2B, Atlanta Braves)
We’re taking the elevator down, aren’t we? The good news about Albies is that he’s been avoiding strikeouts like the plague, hitting .242 with 2 HR and only 4 Ks in 62 AB over the past 3 weeks. The bad news is I still just think he’s being treated as a must-roster elite player (someone just sent me an offer of his Albies for my Joe Ryan lol) and I still don’t think it’s deserved. His HardHit of 27% is really terrible (6th percentile, and notably worse than Javier Sanoja (33% HardHit%, and he also has a high PullAir% FWIW).
Without stolen bases being part of his game, he no longer qualifies for that “Well the Statcast is ugly but the production gets you there” profile anymore. He’s actually among the worst base stealers at the position with just one on the season, at a time when most keystone players are stealing 10 bases in their sleep. He doesn’t hit for a great average, either. So basically you’re banking on run production from a good lineup, and power from a guy who looks unlikely to top 20 homers (I expect single digits going forward, at least). In a trade leaague, I think the worst thing you can do is hold.
Dishonorable Mention: JJ Bleday (OF, Cincinatti Reds) – Every bleh dog has his Bleday. The early stats had me buying in, and I’ll admit holding for too long in many leagues with dumb hopes of Cincy in the summer making up for regression, but he’s hit just .105 with no homers over the past two weeks, and with a .283 rolling 50PA xwOBA, it’s likely a case of “He is who we thought he was”. I still am reticent to drop in 15-team formats, though.
15-team
Nathan Church (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
In case you were too chicken to drop Church… It seems he’s fried. His season line still looks decent with a .254 AVG to go with 5 homers and 4 SB, but I held back from calling him a buy for months because there’s just nothing in the numbers that ever made a compelling case, with a terrible 18th percentile HardHit% (33%), and a league average K% belied by a terrible 45th percentile chase rate that pitchers should continue to take advantage of. At this point, I’d look to buy on anyone whose playing time rises from a demotion, Hey there, Nelson Velazquez, I’m ready to be hurt again.
Oswald Peraza (2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels)
Sublime said it best, “Platicaba con Peraza because you know who we are”. And we know who Peraza is. A guy with some power and speed and bad batting average who got hot for a spell. He’s continued to play some but now no longer deserves it, as he’s hit .226 with 0 homers and 0 SB over the past 2 weeks, and his .299 OBP on the season is simply untenable. Maybe in deep leagues you can still flip him for something based on the HR/SB totals, but don’t let that or his roster rate keep you holding when he should’ve been cut a month ago. Probably also deep league droppable, though I’d still try to flip for something in those.
Dishonorable Mention: Coby Mayo (1B, Baltimore Orioles) – Look, the raw bat speed and max power is still insane, but first base is deep enough that you can do better than rostering a platoon bat who every pitcher knows is trying to hit a pulled flyball every time with a whiff% to show it.
Deep Leagues
Jorge Mateo (SS/OF, Atlanta Braves)
Do I disparage the talent? Absolutely not. Am I frustrated to no end that even when a team seems to have no other viable option, somehow he manages to avoid being in the lineup? Absolutely, I’m tilted y’all (I made an unwise decision to deal Peter Lambert for 2 years of Mateo in a dynasty league last month at Mateo’s peak… oops. Mateo hasn’t helped himself to make a compelling case, with no homers and hitting .133 in 23 ABs over the past 3 weeks. Then again, I’d imagine it’s hard to get going when you’re averaging under 2 games a week. Arguably a deep league drop depending on your bench situation.
Tyler Callihan (2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Hey, we’ll always have that great first week splash, won’t we? My leaguemates thought I was crazy for cutting him for a scrub named Denzer Guzman that week in my 30-team dynasty, but I didn’t regret it for a moment. His best asset is short-term playing time, but there are likely better options.
Dishonorable Mention: Donnie Walton (2B/3B, Los Angeles Angels) – The good news: He’s still hitting above .300. The bad news? Well, everything else. You’re out of your element, Donnie.
