The Braves are six games back of a Wild Card spot at the midway point of the season, and while they are not exactly out of the playoff picture yet, Chris Sale landing on the IL recently definitely hurts their outlook. They may not be full sellers at the deadline, but perhaps they could move some rental pieces, with Raisel Iglesias perhaps being the most logical move they make. There may even be a world where the Braves move Iglesias at the deadline and re-sign him this offseason. If that’s the case, Dylan Lee’s value could skyrocket as the sole closer in Atlanta, and for Lee’s part, he certainly deserves a chance to run with the role. Lee picked up his first save last night (finally) but has been working the ninth inning for a few weeks now. Lee hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 25, dominating over that span (13.2 IP) with a 0.37 WHIP, 1.55 SIERA, and a 37% K rate.
Notes
- Félix Bautista and Trevor Megill have looked great recently, but most importantly, they have no save share concerns at the moment. They also are highly unlikely to be traded at the deadline (nothing is impossible), and despite having elite setup guys in front of them, I still consider their job security to be relatively safe. They each have another gear they can reach, too, so the upside is there along with the steadiness they currently provide.
- Tier 2 has some elite arms at the top, but there are committee/save sharing concerns as it looks like Aroldis Chapman is splitting saves with Greg Weissert, Devin Williams is allegedly splitting saves with Luke Weaver, and Tanner Scott is splitting saves with everyone else in the Dodgers’ bullpen. I still love rostering all three, but their value is definitely higher in H2H/Points formats than Roto if they aren’t seeing every save chance.
- Veterans like David Bednar, Ryan Helsley, and Shelby Miller are safe for now, but they very well could be traded, making them a bit risky to roster moving forward. Emilio Pagán and Daniel Palencia have pitched better than expected this season, but could have competition, either internally or potentially externally, after the deadline. Will Vest is still the lead in the Tigers committee, and Camilo Doval is safe for now, I guess, but remains the third or fourth best reliever in that loaded Giants bullpen.
- Tier 3 feels like a ticking time bomb, and if you can sell “high” on any of these, I would strongly consider it. Pete Fairbanks is already at 29.1 IP this year and has never surpassed 45.1 IP in a season. Plus, that home ballpark is a nightmare for pitchers, and he currently holds a career low 9.7% K-BB rate. Carlos Estévez has been lucky all year, and holds 2.6% K-BB and 6% SwStr rates with a 90 Stuff+, 5.97 xFIP, and 5.58 SIERA over his past 9.2 IP. Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan are trade candidates who have struggled recently.
- The Phillies’ situation didn’t exactly resolve over the past week, as both Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering picked up one save. I’d still bet on the veterans long term, and Jordan Romano does have the best metrics of the three. Chris Martin has the Rangers’ last save, and the team’s only save over the past week, so this situation remains in flux as well. Robert Garcia was off the day Martin got the save, so the job may still be Garcia’s to lose, or maybe Martin will split the role with him moving forward. Just when you think the Marlins might roll with Calvin Faucher as the closer, Ronny Henriquez comes in Sunday and gets the save with Faucher working the eighth. Henriquez has the upside of the two, so I’d rather chase that over what Faucher offers.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh HaderT1 | HOU | - |
| 2 | Edwin Díaz | LAD | - |
| 3 | Andrés Muñoz | SEA | +1 |
| 4 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | +1 |
| 5 | Emmanuel Clase | CLE | -2 |
| 6 | Mason Miller | SD | - |
| 7 | Jeff Hoffman | TOR | - |
| 8 | Félix Bautista | BAL | +5 |
| 9 | Trevor Megill | MIL | +5 |
| 10 | Robert Suarez | ATL | +1 |
| 11 | Aroldis ChapmanT2 | BOS | -3 |
| 12 | Devin Williams | NYM | -2 |
| 13 | Tanner Scott | LAD | -4 |
| 14 | David Bednar | NYY | -2 |
| 15 | Emilio Pagán | CIN | +2 |
| 16 | Ryan Helsley | BAL | - |
| 17 | Shelby Miller | CHC | -2 |
| 18 | Daniel Palencia | CHC | - |
| 19 | Will Vest | DET | +1 |
| 20 | Camilo Doval | NYY | -1 |
| 21 | Pete FairbanksT3 | MIA | - |
| 22 | Carlos Estévez | KC | - |
| 23 | Kenley Jansen | DET | +2 |
| 24 | Kyle Finnegan | DET | - |
| 25 | Dylan LeeT4 | ATL | +3 |
| 26 | Raisel Iglesias | ATL | +1 |
| 27 | Robert Garcia | TEX | -4 |
| 28 | Matt Strahm | KC | +5 |
| 29 | Orion Kerkering | PHI | +2 |
| 30 | Jordan Romano | -4 | |
| 31 | Chris Martin | TEX | +4 |
| 32 | Ronny Henriquez | MIA | +6 |
| 33 | Calvin Faucher | MIA | -4 |
| 34 | Tommy Kahnle | BOS | -4 |
| 35 | Greg Weissert | BOS | +4 |
| 36 | Randy Rodríguez | SF | -4 |
| 37 | Luke Weaver | NYM | +UR |
| 38 | Kirby Yates | LAA | -4 |
| 39 | Grant Taylor | CWS | +UR |
| 40 | Seth Halvorsen | COL | +UR |
