We’ve officially had our first MLB regular season game as of today, but there are still plenty of drafts to be had between now and next Thursday. Some closer pictures have come into focus over the past month but there are still plenty that remain blurry, which can be advantageous if you are the glass-half-full kind of person. My approach hasn’t changed much when it comes to drafting closers, but it does differ based on the league type.
In Roto leagues with 14 or more teams, I do want to make sure I get someone from tier 1, tier 2 at worst, to help stabilize my reliever group. From there, I’d take a chance on someone in tier 3 or 4 as my second closer followed by someone in 5 or 6, with tier 5 being a better pairing with tier 4 (something like Erceg and Pressly) and tier 6 being a better pair with tier 3 (so Puk and Finnegan). I’d still like to throw at least one more dart on a tier 7 or 9 option as well, and maybe even someone in tier 8 just to solidify ratios and boost strikeouts. If you are desperate for another crack at saves, maybe skip tier 8 and take a chance on tier 9 or 10.
In head-to-head or points leagues, especially 12-teamers or less, I’m probably skipping the first two tiers unless the value is really good. I’d probably take my first reliever from tier 3, take my second in tier 4 if the value is good, and if not, just add my second from tier 5. Then I’d probably add one more reliever, likely from tier 8 but I do like leaving drafts with four relievers typically, so I might take two from this tier and then hope one works their way into a closer role within the first few weeks. These leagues always have saves on the wire, so I’m not too worried about missing out in that category just yet.
Notes
Tier 1 (Closest Thing to the “Full Package” Closer)
- There are not too many changes here, but Andrés Muñoz moves into the top group, as I think he can challenge for that top closer spot this year. Emmanuel Clase has struggled this spring and his velo is down, Edwin Díaz’s velo and Josh Hader’s velo are both down, and Devin Williams has just two appearances…so I’m not exactly thrilled to take anyone in the top 50 picks, so I’m still recommending just taking whichever one of the seven falls to you after the first four or five go.
Tier 2 (Great, mostly “Trustworthy” Closers)
- Again, there is not much movement here, but I do have Ryan Walker in the “trustworthy” tier (although Camilo Doval has looked really good this spring).
Tier 3 (Most Likely Closers, with Upside)
- Jeff Hoffman looks great this spring and there are no concerns about his health at this point. He should open as the team’s closer, but being their best reliever don’t be surprised to see him work earlier in games here and there depending on the game situation.
- A.J. Puk faces steep competition from Justin Martinez who has looked unbelievable for most of the spring, Martinez did have one particularly bad outing where he allowed two walks and three earned runs while getting just one out, which unfortunately he is prone to. Puk on the other hand has been more consistent, so I still feel like Torey Lovullo will prefer him in the ninth more often than not. I’d still expect both relievers to finish with double-digit saves.
Tier 4 (Most Likely Closers, with Questionmarks)
- This tier has me more concerned than before. David Bednar was having himself a solid spring before allowing six hits two walks and eight runs over his past inning of work (two appearances). Derek Shelton and the Pirates have not named Bednar the closer yet, and at this point, it is certainly becoming a concern, but I still think Bednar will end up in the role at the end of the day. Colin Holderman has looked great this spring, but I just don’t see him as a legitimate closer option (career 13.6% K-BB, 4.21 xFIP and 1.30 WHIP)
- In Tampa Bay, Pete Fairbanks has appeared in just three games with mixed results and the fastball velocity is still down, closer to 95-96 MPH now. I don’t think we are going to see him get back to averaging 99 MPH as he did in 2022-23, but he does have the changeup working for him now at least? He’ll open the year as the team’s closer, but there are plenty of talented options in that bullpen who could take over if Fairbanks gets off to a slow start.
Tier 5 (Great Relievers, Stuck in a Potential Committee)
- Lucas Erceg is far and away the best reliever in the Royals bullpen so I’m just hoping his talent will win out eventually. Carlos Estévez has returned from his back injury, appearing in two games so far and being very Estevez-like (0 K, 0 BB, 3 H) and just gives you no upside. There’s always a chance that, if Estevez loses the role, they turn to someone else with Erceg sticking in that high-leverage role, but that HLR role can still provide fantasy value with a few wins and saves mixed in with great ratios and strikeouts.
- The Red Sox closer situation is still a nightmare, but we did hear from Alex Cora that he does not want to use a committee approach as he wants structure in the later innings. I think we can rule out Liam Hendriks from opening the season as the closer (maybe his stuff comes back to him as the season progresses) so I see this role coming down to Justin Slaten or Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has the experience and still boosts enormous upside but the inconsistency could drive Cora mad. I still think Chapman would be the guy to get the save on opening day as Slaten has been delayed due to an illness this spring but I’d also argue both should be rostered in all leagues for now, especially Slaten who is still going really late in drafts for some reason.
Tier 6 (Good Relievers, Probably Closing out Games?)
- Kyle Finnegan is back in Washington and while I don’t think he’s going to break out or be a good pitcher all of a sudden, he will still provide some saves to your roster, at least early on in the season. It’s tough to say he’s the surefire closer there though, especially after they non-tendered him and left him out on the free agent market until late February.
- At this point, I really don’t see Alexis Díaz opening the season as the Reds closer, and based on Terry Francona’s track record, whoever gets the first save could run away with the role. My guess would be Scott Barlow who’s looked great this spring, but Taylor Rogers is another veteran with closer experience having a fine spring.
Tier 7 (Bad Team, Some Upside…but only if you NEED Saves)
- I’m still leaning towards Jesús Tinoco and Seth Halvorsen opening up as their teams’ respective closers, but these are not exactly names worth chasing outside of Roto leagues. In head-to-head or points leagues, skip to the next tier. I will say, if Anthony Bender is back to his pre-surgery velocity and continues throwing the ball well, he could have mixed league head-to-head value eventually.
Tier 8 (The Ratio/K Booster Group…and maybe some Saves)
- Jeremiah Estrada has looked great this spring and I’m just really excited for him to get a chance to close out games in the hopefully not-too-distant future. While Robert Suarez is likely to be dealt this season, Jason Adam could stick around for another year, potentially hindering Estrada’s ascent to the closer role, but it also gives Adam value as a late-round dart throw. Adam’s stuff doesn’t lag too far behind Estrada’s.
- The Dodgers are going with Tanner Scott as the sole closer for now, but it’s pretty clear that Blake Treinen is currently the next in line for saves, not only that, but Treinen is back to sitting 96-97 again so he could be in for a massive season if he can stay healthy. At this point, Kirby Yates doesn’t need to be rostered as it looks like he was basically a late winter luxury signing who is likely just ring-chasing at this point.
Tier 9 (The Next In Line Closer Group)
- We still don’t have any answers in Detroit, which I think is by design so AJ Hinch can just play matchups series by series, game by game. I still like the idea of Beau Brieske throwing his fastball in the top half of the strike zone and becoming a really good closer in the process, but that may be a pipe dream at this point. I expect a smattering of saves for Brieske, Jason Foley, and Tyler Holton…and maybe even Tommy Kahnle or Will Vest because why not?
- The Rangers situation still remains up in the air as well, with the veteran Chris Martin being the favorite to open the year in the role. Robert Garcia has looked good after having a slow start to the spring, and then there’s the young flamethrower Marc Church who certainly has closer-esque stuff and has impressed manager Bruce Bochy. Church has never pitched in back-to-back games as a professional however, so we could be looking at a Ben Joyce type workload for Church in his rookie season.
Tier 10 (Falling out of Favor in the Closer Ranks)
- Seranthony Domínguez probably should have his own tier as someone who could vulture saves in April, but I don’t see him having season-long value as Félix Bautista has looked pretty good this spring as he ramps back up.
