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Fantasy Baseball Out% Standouts from Week 2

Taylor Tarter presents the fantasy baseball week 2 Out% update

Taylor Tarter
Out% to Evaluate Pitchers 4/12/2026

This is our first weekly Out% update of the season. Just as a recap for what Out% is and some of our new developments, here are a few reminders…

Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out

Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts

Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher

Out% is an added layer in pitcher and pitch analysis that you can use in conjunction with other pitch metrics to determine the legitimacy of a pitcher’s performance. Analyzing Out rate, along with Good and Lucky outs can help you predict whether pitchers are over/underperforming, and when you should buy or sell them.

For a little more info on the basics of Out%, read this, and for some more specifics on Good and Lucky outs, read this. And to view our Out% Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.

 

League Average Out Rates

 

Below are the league average Out Rates for each pitch type as of Saturday, 4/11. This is how we measure a pitcher’s Out rate performance.

  • Fastball – 16.4%
  • Cutter – 16%
  • Sinker – 17.7%
  • Splitter – 21.1%
  • Slider – 17.1%
  • Sweeper – 17.3%
  • Curveball – 16.3%
  • Changeup – 18.9%

A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown), including

 

Fastball Out% Highlight

 

Sandy Alcantara’s fastball has been absolutely filthy this season in general, but especially at inducing outs. It’s 32.3% Out Rate means it has induced outs nearly a third of the time that he throws it.

Making it even more impressive is that 27% of that Out Rate have been Good Outs, meaning outs that he has earned either through strikeouts or batted balls that were expected to turn into outs. It has a 43% ground-ball rate to just a 10% strikeout rate, so many of the outs on his fastball have been weak contact to his defenders.

Our PLV data loves his fastball, too, among some of his other pitches that have performed well. He was lights out against the White Sox:

And here is how it looks in action, just for fun:

Alcantara’s fastball grades out as the third-best overall out pitch, but his sinker has an even higher Out Rate at 39%. Though his Lucky Out rate on it is 13%, so he is not earning as many outs on that pitch, and we could see its performance dip.

Alcantara also owns an above-average Out rate on his changeup and slider. He has not thrown enough of his cutter and sweeper to qualify.

All in all, Alcantara is elite at inducing outs with multiple pitches and should be a pitcher that you try to acquire in any league type or size. He is the real deal.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Target

 

Sonny Gray owned the best out pitch in baseball last season in his sweeper, and it has been one of the best this season already, with a 30% Out Rate. That makes it the seventh-best out pitch overall. It also grades well with 20% of the outs considered Good Outs. It relies on some absurd movement to induce whiffs like this:

It boasts a 29% strikeout rate, best among his arsenal, and a 50% ground-ball rate. These are largely in a pitcher’s control, and support the high Good Out rate. Gray’s sweeper also grades out well according to PLV.

One of his highest quality pitches so far this season has been his cutter, which also possesses an above-average Out rate at 18.6%, with a 16% good Out rate. This means only 2% of the overall Out rate on that pitch is based on lucky outs. He has not tossed his changeup enough to qualify for Out rate, but by more traditional metrics, it looks great so far. It has a .000 BAA, a 20% whiff rate, and has resulted in a grounder every time a batter has put it into play. This should be a pitch he tosses more to lefty hitters to earn more outs.

Gray should be a major target for fantasy managers, with his fastball also grading above average in both Out rate and PLV.

 

An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid

 

Michael McGreevy has three out pitches with above-average Out rates, including his fastball and sinker (both 18.2%), and his changeup (31.6%). These are his three most-used pitches. But there are some issues under the hood.

That changeup leads baseball in Out rate, but it also touts a 10% Lucky Out rate, which is the sixth-highest Lucky Out rate in baseball on any pitch. The 6% Lucky Out rate on his fastball makes up about a third of his outs on that pitch. This suggests that those pitches are overperforming some, and could be contributing to his very low .204 BABIP.

McGreevy also typically produces a low strikeout rate, and this year has not been any different. He owns a 5.0 strikeout-per-nine rate and a 16% strikeout rate, both well below league average.

Our PLV data backs up our Out rate data, showing his three most used pitches all grade below average in pitch quality. It also shows that his best performing pitch in terms of quality, his cutter, should probably be tossed more in out counts. Take a look:

Though three of his pitches grade as above average in Out rate, he is in major danger of regression, and this would be the time to trade him away or release him in all but the deepest of leagues.

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy

 

 

Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell

 

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Taylor Tarter

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Taylor is an FSWA finalist, and a fantasy baseball champ that has been playing for well over a decade. Taylor is co-creator of Out%, a stat that measures how good pitches are at getting outs. You can find him @TaylorTarter on Twitter.

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