Sonny Gray’s sweeper continues to be the most dominant out pitch in baseball. Not only that, but it keeps getting better. The league average Out% for sweepers is 18.6%, and his is 36.2%. That is nearly double the league average, and .4% higher than his sweeper Out% last week.
The other pitches in the top 10 of Out% include fellow sweepers from Andrew Abbott, Mitch Keller, and Jameson Taillon. The top 10 also includes splitters from Reed Garrett and Bryce Miller, and sinkers from Tyler Holton and Michael Wacha. The top-10 best out pitches also feature Sean Hjelle’s knuckle curve and Derek Law’s slider.
Below are the individual pitches, the top performers in Out%, and a few notes on some of the pitchers who are performing well and those who are struggling. You can find more information in our weekly Out% Google Sheet.
Average Out%
Here are the average Out Rates for each pitch. We will use this to measure how well a pitcher has performed versus the league average. They will likely fluctuate slightly from week to week.
Fastball (FF) – 16.6%
Cutter (FC) – 16.6%
Sinker (SI) – 18.1%
Splitter (FS) – 21%
Slider (SL) – 18%
Curveball (CU) – 17.5%
Sweeper (ST) – 18.7%
Changeup (CH) – 19.4%
Fastball Out% Leaders
As I review the Out% leaderboard for each pitch, please note that they are based on pitchers who have thrown a league-average amount of pitches for each pitch. This helps separate starters from most relievers.
Of the 13 pitchers ranking among the top fastball Out%, just three possess an ERA worse than league average – Frankie Montas, Pablo López, and Ryan Feltner. Montas has one other pitch, his sinker, that is above league average in Out%, but his cutter is the fifth worst out pitch in baseball and his slider is 20th worst. Pablo López has a 5.11 ERA, but his curveball ranks above league average in Out%, and his advanced ERA metrics all point toward Lopez being a much better pitcher than his ERA suggests. Feltner’s fastball is his only pitch ranking above league average in Out%, so his high ERA should not be a surprise. What this leaderboard continues to show is the parallels between having a fastball that can get outs, and an above-average ERA.
Fastball Out% Leaders (16.6% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 23.5% |
| Tobias Myers | 23.1% |
| Bailey Falter | 21.4% |
| Robert Suarez, George Kirby | 20.9% |
| Keegin Akin, Logan Gilbert | 20.5% |
| Cade Smith | 20.3% |
| Ryan Feltner, Frankie Montas | 20% |
| Seth Lugo | 19.9% |
| Cole Ragans | 19.7% |
| Pablo López | 19.5% |
Tobias Myers has a truly excellent fastball. What he lacks in velocity, he makes up for in other ways. Myers has elite induced vertical break, and locates the ball well, leading to a PLV score bordering on a Quality Pitch. His fastball ranks as the 12th-best fastball on our PLV leaderboard. Among pitchers who have thrown a fastball at least 250 times, Myers’ 3.3 inches of vertical movement versus league average ranks as the second most. So instead of blowing his fastball by batters, he fools them with its movement. Here is a look at it from earlier this season:
Tobias Myers is looking quite #good. Five one-run innings with four strikeouts, including this painted fastball to Andrew McCutchen for a whiff to end the fifth. pic.twitter.com/AhiJl3Tr2o
— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) April 24, 2024
Here are some noteworthy pitchers whose fastballs have not been effective this season.
Cutter, Sinker, and Splitter Out% Leaders
Some of the pitchers below toss these pitches in addition to their fastball. Others use these pitches in lieu of a fastball. Pitchers who have above average Out% on these pitches and fastballs are definitely pitchers to target.
Cutter Out% Leaders (16.6% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 22% |
| Garrett Crochet | 20.9% |
| Corbin Burnes | 20.4% |
| Emmanuel Clase | 19.8% |
| Kutter Crawford | 19.7% |
| Logan Gilbert | 19% |
| Zach Eflin | 18.9% |
| Jameson Taillon | 18.7% |
| Kenley Jansen | 18.4% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 18.3% |
Sinker Out% Leaders (18.1% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 25.8% |
| Zack Wheeler | 24.2% |
| Tarik Skubal | 23.4% |
| Jose Urena | 23.3% |
| Ranger Suárez | 22.8% |
| Bryce Miller | 22.7% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 22.6% |
| Seth Lugo, George Kirby | 21.7% |
| Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale | 21.4% |
| Jared Koenig | 20.7% |
Splitter Out% Leaders (21% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Reed Garrett | 30.3% |
| Bryce Miller | 29.6% |
| Fernando Cruz | 25.4% |
| Taj Bradley, Mark Leiter Jr. | 24.9% |
| Kyle Finnegan, Cal Quantrill | 23.7% |
| Tanner Houck | 23.3% |
| Shota Imanaga | 21.9% |
| George Kirby | 21.6% |
| Joe Ryan, Logan Gilbert | 21.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | 21% |
Elite extension and pinpoint location have been the keys to success for Garrett Crochet’s cutter. Among pitchers who have thrown a cutter in at least 50 plate appearances, Crochet’s 37% whiff rate and 35% put away each rank first. His cutter’s .218 batting average against ranks tied for 12th using the same parameters. It has played a major role in his 12.4 K/9 rate, which ranks first among qualified pitchers, and has contributed to his top-20 3.05 ERA. Take a look at it here, along with a wipeout slider:
Garrett Crochet's 10th and 11th Ks. pic.twitter.com/QRfjbStZNu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2024
Zach Eflin owns a few top out pitches, one of which is his sinker. He has thrown six different pitches this season, but his sinker is arguably his best, and the pitch he throws most. While he does not induce many whiffs with his sinker, he still manages to induce outs with it. It has a four-degree launch angle and a 25% putaway rate, suggesting he has been able to get groundouts with it while leaning on pitches like his curveball to miss bats. Additionally, his PLV data shows that he can locate his sinker well, and Stuff+ backs that up as well – his sinker’s Location+ is tied for fourth-best in the league.
George Kirby has so many excellent out pitches including a top fastball and sinker, but his splitter is noteworthy as well. Three Seattle pitchers rank among the best splitters in Out%, and clearly this was an organizational focus. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 splitters, Kirby has the ninth most vertical inches of movement, the fourth most vertical inches of movement versus average, and the third highest percentage of drop versus average. Kirby having multiple elite out pitches has helped to turn his season around, and his splitter has been a key to that. And the insane movement on his splitter has helped to fool batters like this:
George Kirby, Filthy 88mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/QpBj5H6kqz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 30, 2024
For pitchers without a four-seamer, this is also a good place to look for how well pitchers are doing. Here are a few pitchers whose cutters, sinkers, and splitters have been lacking.
Slider, Curveball, and Sweeper Out% Leaders
Below, you will find pitchers with some of the best breaking pitches in the league. These pitchers are using their breaking pitches to induce whiffs, strikeouts, and grounders on weak contact. The data from the offseason showed that the more a pitcher throws an elite breaking pitch, the better, so these are pitchers who have thrown an above-league-average amount of each pitch.
Slider Out% Leaders (18% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 25.7% |
| Reid Detmers | 23.9% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson, Justin Steele | 23.8% |
| Chris Sale | 23.1% |
| Ryan Helsley | 22.6% |
| Reynaldo López | 22.5% |
| Jared Jones | 21.8% |
| Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert | 21.4% |
| Carlos Rodón | 21.2% |
| Andrew Kittredge | 21.1% |
Curveball Out% Leaders (17.5% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 24.5% |
| Triston McKenzie | 21.5% |
| Mitchell Parker, Charlie Morton | 20% |
| Seth Lugo | 19.8% |
| Jose Quintana | 19.6% |
| Pierce Johnson | 19.4% |
| Ranger Suárez | 19.2% |
| Framber Valdez | 18.4% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 18.3% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 18.2% |
Sweeper Out% Leaders (18.7% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 36.2% |
| Mitch Keller | 28% |
| Andrew Abbott | 26.9% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 24.7% |
| Michael Kelly | 24% |
| Kyle Gibson | 23.3% |
| Colin Rea | 22.1% |
| Aaron Civale | 21.7% |
| Ben Lively | 20.9% |
| JP Sears | 19.4% |
Corbin Burnes perhaps is more known for his cutter, but his slider is actually a better out pitch, and a borderline Quality Pitch according to our PLV data. It may also be his best pitch overall. Burnes’ slider has a .206 BAA, a 46% whiff rate, and a 24% putaway rate. Those rank third, first, and second respectively among his five-pitch arsenal. A major reason for his slider’s success at getting batters out comes thanks to some pretty ridiculous movement. Among pitchers who have thrown a slider at least 250 times, only Mitch Spence has more horizontal and vertical movement than Burnes. This is why batters have such a hard time against it:
Corbin Burnes, Chalked 83mph Slider. 🤖 pic.twitter.com/fK0Ad0257J
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2024
Jose Quintana has had a rough season so far, but despite that, his curveball has performed well. Quintana’s curveball ranks as one of the best at getting batters out. Location is his bread and butter, considering he throws it about 77 MPH on average. His plvLoc+ on his curveball ranks above league average, and his Location+ is fourth best in the league. Perhaps if he leaned on it more in the right situations, he could improve his outlook for the rest of the season.
Mitch Keller has ranked high on the sweeper Out% leaderboard for most of the season, and analyzing his sweeper, it is no surprise why. His sweeper grades as a Quality Pitch according to PLV. He tosses it faster than average, which definitely leads to whiffs. In fact, among pitchers who have thrown a sweeper in at least 75 PAs, Keller’s has the seventh-highest whiff rate at 27%. Using the same parameters, its 22% putaway rate ranks fifth best, its 32% strikeout rate ranks third best, and its .203 BAA ranks fifth best. In addition to Keller’s sweeper being faster than league average, it also has more horizontal movement than league average. Its speed, movement, and location make it tough for batters to connect, like in this moment against Max Kepler:
MITCH KELLER'S SWEEPER IS DISGUSTING
Max Kepler just swung at a pitch that hit him in a 3-2 count with the bases loaded
87.8 MPH, 2990 RPM, 33 inVB, 16 inHB pic.twitter.com/OjtcL4YG9W
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) June 8, 2024
Here are a few pitchers whose sliders, curveballs, and sweepers have been lacking.
Changeup Out% Leaders – 19.4% League Average
Similar to breaking pitches, pitchers who can throw an offspeed offering with a high Out% will often find success. Even better are pitchers with an offspeed pitch and a breaking pitch that can induce outs. Here is the changeup leaderboard:
Changeup Out% Leaders (19.4% League Average)
| Name | Out% |
|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | 25.5% |
| José Berríos | 25.2% |
| Cooper Criswell | 23.2% |
| Logan Webb, Cristopher Sánchez | 23.1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 22.9% |
| Michael Wacha, Michael King | 22.4% |
| Griffin Canning | 22.3% |
| Tanner Bibee | 22.1% |
| Gavin Stone | 21.8% |
| Michael Lorenzen, Kyle Hendricks | 21.7% |
Tarik Skubal is having an amazing bounce-back campaign, and his changeup has a lot to do with it. It has an absurd 45% whiff rate, topped only by Cole Ragans and Luke Weaver among pitchers who have thrown a changeup in at least 50 PAs. Skubal’s 30% putaway rate is first and his 34% strikeout rate is seventh best using the same parameters. He throws it faster than league average, and among pitchers who have thrown a changeup at least 250 times, Skubal’s has the sixth most horizontal movement compared to average. But what sets Skubal’s changeup apart from others is that it does not move like a typical changeup and that horizontal movement goes in the opposite direction that changeups normally go. Take a look:
Tarik Skubal putting on a Changeup Clinic. 👌👨🏫 pic.twitter.com/a98ay6ljOu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 28, 2024
Here are some pitchers whose changeups have not performed well:
Pitchers to Target Based on Out%
Here are a few pitchers that I would try to acquire based on their Out% data. These are pitchers who are successful at getting outs in multiple ways with multiple pitches.