Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Sean Burke (CHW) @ SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 88 pitches.
I never like telling y’all that a really good start is a Birthday Party or something to ignore. I’m hoping I find something new that could be sustainable and put on my way-to-loud conductor hat to steer the hype train toward Value Town. Now I see Sean Burke returning 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 88 pitches (W) against the Padres and after 2 ER across 19.1 IP in three games, it’s time we have a chat. Oh no. Hold on friend, it’s not quite what you think.
Burke is an interesting one. His four-seamer isn’t commanded as well as I want it to, nor is he throwing it 96 mph as he has in the past, but he’s getting an absurd 20.6″ of vert on the offering, and it meant his fastballs over the plate returned a phenomenal 39% CSW. That’s Petco doing that. Maybe, it can do weird things this time of year. He’s also doing a better job of getting sinkers inside to RHB with stellar two-plane movement (18″/14″ is kinda awesome) and he properly earned strikes with both his curve to LHB and slider to RHB. It made sense.
My biggest issue is the consistency. He doesn’t command the breakers this well start-to-start, nor does he feature the same movement or velocity. For example, last start saw zero sliders down, and before that was a 54% strike rate on his four-seamer at 93.7 mph. Maybe there’s something going on (an arm angle change? Hard to tell right now), and I kinda like the SEA, KCR, @SEA schedule ahead. That said, the volatility is real and I’ll be shocked to see 20″+ of vert next time on heaters + 74% strikes on both breakers. This was an anomaly in the end. Treat him as Questionable moving forward.
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Max Meyer (MIA) vs PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches.
Ohhhh that’s the good stuff. When we’re chasing guys like Meyer, it can be tough to hold when they don’t exhibit the ceiling upside once. Show me evidence, dangit! Well, Meyer has yet to allow 3 ER in a start thus far, but this was the first above 5.1 IP and just the third above 5 K (six and eight strikeouts prior), It’s not like he was absurd before this one. Why was this one so different? For starters, seeing his previously mid four-seamer return a 37% CSW with increased vert and a 1.4 HAVAA is lovely sight. His slider and sweeper were stellar when executed (and done so often), and it led to a more efficient putaway rate than normal. Guess we’re all in against the Orioles now, eh? Let’s hope the heater can continue to be enough of a foundation for the two elite breakers.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
IM AN AGA. It’s good to have you back. Can’t be too upset with just five strikeouts that were a product of Sneks attacking early and often, limiting the number of batters who even got to two strikes in the first place. What you can be upset about is that this was the first start with Imanaga sitting under 92 mph (91.2 mph), falling to sub 90 mph in both the sixth and seventh. I wouldn’t overreact to a game in 50-degree weather (it will end at some point, I promise) and we keep rolling, of course.
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Here’s your Gold Star as the quiet one continues his journey to win the Spider-Man. The Quiet One? Yeah, he’s barely noticed in fantasy leagues and his initials are Mmmmmm, like that one dude who listens to you ramble among your friends and you kinda forget he’s in the room, too. He’s not sporting a 2.63 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across seven games with a laughable 16% strikeout rate, as you know this is sure to dissolve in time.
Foster Griffin (WSN) vs MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Why am I getting EJax vibes. Griffin failed to earn a whiff on six of his seven pitches (2/11 curveball whiffs. That’s it), and his heaters + sweeper were far from what they should be. But the Brewers couldn’t hit the pitches that actually fell over the plate, and the legend of Griffin roars another day. Keep it going against the Marlins, of course.
Griffin Jax (TBR) vs SFG (ND) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 45 pitches.
Ohhhhh, that’s why I had EJax vibes. Silly brain looking at the next pitcher. The Rays are trying out Jax as a starter, here as an opener and stretching him out over time. Because he only tossed 45 pitches, we still saw 96 mph on his elite four-seamer, which is the real question if he were to properly start. It’s a legit pitch and succeeded here, but what will it become when it’s more around 94 mph? Will he throw more of his cutter that will be closer to 90/91 mph instead of 93? Then its high 12″ of vert is terrible. Does his 88 mph sweeper fall to 85? I NEED TO KNOW. I’m going to guess they will, but I’m still paying attention. This could be fantastic if the velocity drop is minimal in the end. The stuff is legit and the small sample is making him out to be far worse than he is.
Chris Sale (ATL) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. In Coors. What a guy. That’s what makes him an ace. It sure does.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs KCR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.
I was touched to get invited back to Brady’s podcast to talk about the Mariners on Thursday and was shocked some were pushing for Hancock to be moved to the pen. I think Hancock heard those people, too. The four-seamer was…off, though. Which is really weird to say when it returned a 22% SwStr rate and 31% CSW and located beautifully. What has made Hancock so fun was a flat arm angle + 12-13″ of vert that actually shocks batters. It fell to a terrible 10.4″ mark here with far less lateral ride, too. Super weird. Welp, there’s no world where I Big Brain this and tell you to ignore the line here, that’s a well deserved Gallows Pole and we press onward with a smile on our faces. I’ll keep an eye for that four-seamer acting up again.
Keider Montero (DET) vs TEX (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 85 pitches.
Look at that! Montero has been invaluable for the Tigers, sporting a 3.51 ERA in his six starts as they’ve dealt with injuries, but that doesn’t mean you should spin the wheel outside 15-teamers with his inability to earn whiffs.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
As expected, we saw more LHB for Harrison to deal with, and he was brilliant against them. Sparkling pitch separation with four-seamers up-and-in + curveballs down and away (why not a sinker…?), allowing just three hits, all on sub 90 mph EV. That’s Baseball, Suzyn. His RHB command was still solid, and we’re very much loving this right now. I wouldn’t rule out success against the Yankees on Friday, FWIW.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ CHC (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ryne, I appreciate you, even if others won’t. He featured a 95/96 mph sinker to RHB in this one out of nowhere (I’m seeing a label of “changeup” and that’s hilariously not right), and the bottom line is that the four-seamer is still elite and gets the job done. And look at you, the smart fantasy manager who held onto Ryne after a pair of absurd extreme outings. Now you get the reward of the Mets, Arlington, and the Giants. Awwwww yis.
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs BAL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.
Not gonna lie, I’m kinda sad he goes on Thursday and not Friday (would have been Weathers vs. Harrison and I can see the Spider-Man memes now). It’s not quite the same (Luzardo is the better comp) and y’all should be thrilled to see 96 mph back on his heater after games under 94 mph. But it came with 55% strikes. Okay, that’s a fair point. Oh, and his changeup was also meh at 50% strikes. Hmmm. Praise the sinker and sweeper for stepping in and getting it done, eh? The stuff is still legit and he has enough in the toolset to avoid the disasters. Most of the time.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
The Pasta Pirate didn’t walk the plank, he walked the whole dang green wall in Fenway. You know that curveball I’ve talked about being so important to his success? Yeah, that went 38% strikes across 1/3 of all pitches thrown. Oh my. Yeaaaah. At the same time, he’s upped his extension even further to 7.7 feet on his sinker, helping him return a 1.7 HAVAA on both fastballs. It’s kinda awesome. Like really awesome. Okay, I’m in despite the walks. I dunno, that’s just so ridiculous of an extension + flat attack and it’s not even on his best pitch, while he survived despite struggling to find strikes. He heads to Cincy next as the final poor matchup of his gauntlet and I’m awfully curious. Maybe I’ll wait and make sure he gets the curveball back first.
Jesse Scholtens (TB) vs SFG (W) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 47 pitches.
You went with Scholtens on the off-chance of snatching a Win from Jax, and guess what? It worked. You rascal. Expect this pairing moving forward as they stretch out Jax, which could mean another Win in the future, but it’s Fenway next. Naaaah.
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 103 pitches.
Not the best and he’s still over two ticks down on the curveball from last year. I’m kinda worried about his next start against the Guardians given the chance of facing 100% LHB, which Lugo generally has a tougher time against. Then again, go with that and then it’s the CrySox + Boston after. Good luck.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
We haven’t seen Prielipp exceed five innings yet, but the good news is seeing 91 pitches in the books, suggesting he has the freedom for six frames if he earns it. With Joe Ryan leaving Sunday’s game with elbow soreness, any concerns we had about his displacement when Abel returns should be swept aside now (I wanted to regardless of the news), and in due time, we’re sure to get Prielipp locked in with his slowball. Once that pitch doesn’t go, oh, I don’t know, 43% strikes for a start, he’ll cruise through six. I’m letting him fly without fear against the Guardians on Friday.
Dylan Cease (TOR) @ MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 106 pitches.
I kinda want to call Cease outings “Dunkin’ in the Attic.” That’s where he goes to serve you a Dusty Donut every other start.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs NYM (ND) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
It was essentially a VPQS and while that’s not great against the Mets, it’s lovely to see eight strikeouts. This wasn’t all Koufax influenced, by the way. Many of those hits came on super hittable pitches over the plate to RHB, and he’s gotta get that in check. He’s fortunate none of them left the yard. At least the slider is still very much here and we keep holding.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 104 pitches.
The harder splitter is still here and look at that! He made it long enough for a Bailey Special. I hate that this is what we’re celebrating. I’m not ready to buy this.
Andrew Painter (PHI) @ MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
Not even against Miami, eh Painter? Noted. Did you just write that down with ink made from your tears? SO WHAT IF I DID?
Nolan McLean (NYM) @ LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna lose the feel for their sweeper, cutter, and changeup, leading to more sinkers over the plate that found grass. Whatareyagonnado. Not velocity or movement issues, we move on.
Michael King (SDP) vs CHW (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
Blegh. The low strike rates have returned for King and it’s incredibly disappointing. I’m actually shocked to report that King has a 1.08 WHIP with a 11.5% walk rate. That’s just…absurd. Get it together, King. We’re not doing anything with the Cardinals up next, but don’t make us stressed like this.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ TBR (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
Awwww. His fifth frame was a struggle with a leadoff double + pair of walks + pair of singles before getting the hook. He was looking great up to then and it showcases the difference between a stud and a guy close to it. That extra ability to make the right adjustment during a start to recalibrate when the command slips during a start. It was just one poor inning, and we’re still in against the Pirates.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 101 pitches.
He had some ridiculousness in the field here, and I honestly have sympathy after pitching for some highly questionable defenses when I was a youngin’. Just gotta strike em all out myself. A King Cole with a 40% CSW is not quite what I expected, nor the ten strikeouts that marked just the third time he eclipsed five strikeouts (hey, like Burke!), and he can thank the Reds for salivating at his splitter only to strikeout six times. I still don’t love the four-seamer at all, but the sinker’s sub 6″ vert and 18″ of ride makes for an interesting time to RHB (albeit, over the plate). I heavily question his skills against LHB, but that schedule is so nice: @SFG, Rockie Road, @STL. He’s not going to earn so many whiffs on splitters, y’all. But maybe close to it? Maybe.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ ATH (W) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 69 pitches.
Oh a Win! I guess that’s cool. How did you find out? I got this pamphlet in the mail. OH DON’T YOU DARE BRING THAT UP AGAIN- What’s the number I call to stop getting spam from the Slade Brigade? NOOOOO.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 89 pitches.
Bradish really struggled against LHB, where his curve went just 44% strikes across 18 thrown, and he barely touched his slider. It meant the Yankees feasted on his poor heaters over the plate, a hung slider (one of its two strikes to LHB), and a low hook. He’s really not there. And while I want to say “Well yeah, he’s been struggling and it’s the Yankees”, I also didn’t see a guy close to turning it around. I still believe he’ll figure it out, and yet, if this is your worst pitcher, go ahead, let him go. It could be a redeeming start against the Athletics in Camden, but the Yankees follow and who really would trust that? Expect a large drop on The List, to which I’ll get all the comments about how I should have done this a long time ago. Thanks.
Connelly Early (BOS) vs HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
This was a strange one. There was a lot of talk of tipping with Correa talking to batters and giving signs from second base, which is somewhat common for young pitchers. And the thing is, Early commanded really well to RHB. I imagine a lot of you will be able to pick up Early in your leagues after this and I’m so excited for you. He’s going to get the Rays, Phillies, and Royals and, yes, I’m starting him everywhere. I promise you, he’s not an 11% walk-rate arm.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ DET (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 43 pitches.
I can’t express this enough: I honestly don’t expect anything different.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs ATL (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
Annnnd I’m sad. I mean, this was one of the worst matchups you can imagine, and I was still all jazzed up about his 99 mph heater to encourage a shot in deeper leagues. The silver lining? His four-seamer is still an elite pitch in Coors and the sinker is still a good addition. Unfortunately, the secondaries are all dampened too much in Coors, and Dollander may just be a strong road play in the end. The best news? Both of his next two starts are on the road – @PHI & @PIT. Phew.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs CLE (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
It’s been a case of “Wait for him to prove it a few times” this year and he hasn’t even had one game that proves “it”. Womp womp.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) @ PIT (L) – 1.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 52 pitches.
Oh jeeeeeez. That’s, uh, unfortunate. I’ve considered Lowder a decent 15-team streamer, but this, um, isn’t that. Let’s return to him in a few weeks and see how he’s doing.
Game of the Day
Baseball – I’m sorry it’s so late today! You deserve better.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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