Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Saturday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ TEX (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.
It’s been a while since Walker Buehler was any good. In the midst of a sub-4.00 ERA campaign with his highest fWAR since his last elite season in 2021, have the Padres fixed him?
The right-hander added fuel to the fire against the Rangers in Texas with 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches (ND), continuing a streak that has made him look more fantasy viable than he has in ages. Across his past eight starts, he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 21% strikeout rate. That’s obviously worth rostering, but we can’t pick him up retroactively. Thus, the important questions arise: Is he doing anything different, and does it suggest sustained success?
From a pitch mix perspective, he’s cut back on cutters, curveballs, and changeups to LHB, focusing more on four-seamers and sinkers. Against RHB, he’s thrown fewer curveballs and sliders to emphasize sinkers and cutters. Overall, he’s relying more on his Ras Pack, throwing them 2/3 of the time compared to the 55% rate he threw them during his first seven starts when he recorded a 5.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. It’s allowed him to find the zone more often and throw more strikes, crossing the 79% and 65% thresholds, respectively, across his entire arsenal for the first time since that aforementioned 2021 campaign.
What’s weird is that not much else has changed. Same swinging strike rate, same two-strike rate, same putaway rate, and I guess that explains the lack of change in his strikeout rate. But it’s also the same 50/50 split on hard/weak contact and only a slight increase in ground balls. Then why the massive change in results?
Fewer walks as a result of the increased zone and strike rates make sense, but they don’t account for such a dramatic change. Is this really just improved batted ball luck? Checking into the HOTEL, his BABIP has dropped 58 points to a more reasonable .290, his LOB% has increased by more than 16% to 81% (likely unsustainable), but his HR/FB ratio has gone the other way, increasing more than 9% to 19% (more in line with his career mark). It’s sort of a wash. He’s massively decreased the number of runners he allows on base, mitigating the damage his increased rate of homers produces.
The biggest wrench in all of this is that he increased his slider usage by 12% on Saturday, as it led his arsenal with five whiffs, while four-seamers and sinkers excelled for 53% CSW in the zone. That’s cold water on the game-changing Ras Pack focus hypothesis. It’s not like he’s waiting to see how his breakers feel each start, settling on the one that feels the best, and throwing that more often, either. He’s just mixing his pitches well and getting good results.
So where does that leave us? Frustratingly so, without a clear answer. He’s avoiding the heart of the zone and pitching above the expectations he’s set recently. His stuff hasn’t improved at all, so the increased reliance on damage avoidance with in-zone offerings won’t last forever. That’s a textbook Vargas Rule. We’ll have to label it as such and just trust him until he hits a wall, which could be as soon as his next start against the Dodgers.
We’re still trying to solve this mystery that makes Buehler the enigmatic star of the summer’s most confounding yet enthralling blockbuster. The show must go on, but will the ending be satisfactory? (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
I’d been slowly buying back into Rogers as he effectively pulled off the BSB for four consecutive starts, but with the Dodgers on the docket, I decided to take a backseat and hope for the signs of future success to remain. I never expected the signs of success to show up in the box score, especially against the Dodgers! He turned in his first scoreless outing since his season debut in March and exhibited some fire with an extra tick of velo across the board, sitting 94-95 mph with four-seamers. Unfortunately, he lost command of his changeup, failing to execute the BSB, and received little support from the rest of his arsenal, as everything but four-seamers combined for 53% strikes. Maybe the extra gas made it difficult to command everything, and he’ll be back to being the stable Toby he’s been recently, but I’m not really buying it. 14/15 outs on balls in play suggests he was in the good graces of Koufax, and he was fortunate to avoid even more damage, returning 14 foul balls on his heater. The lefty-heavy Nats up next pose a significant threat as the top offense against southpaws, and I don’t expect him to get away with this approach again, nor do I think the ceiling produced by his BSB approach is worth chasing. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs MIL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Isn’t it wonderful to have such consistently elite production on your roster? Oh…you don’t roster Sale? I hope you’re finding stability somewhere else in your life! (View Game Card)
Colin Rea (CHC) vs TOR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.
As he does, Rea came through as a questionable start streamer. Koufax had his back, allowing him to go 13/16 outs on balls in play while avoiding damage in the zone with just five whiffs. He’s back on the streaming menu @NYM next. (View Game Card)
Walbert Ureña (LAA) @ ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Ureña keeps rolling, surviving Sacré Verde, and dropping his ERA under 2.00 across his past 10 starts. I’m delighted to announce that his changeup hath returned, with its highest strike rate and most whiffs in June. In concert with Empty Velocity heaters, he was nearly untouchable. I’m sort of enamored with his growing feel for his sweeper. Despite finding the zone just once on 12 thrown to RHB, it still returned 33% CSW, as batters are more than willing to go fishing because it tunnels well as his only pitch with gloveside movement. He could stand to improve the consistency of the sweeper’s movement profile, but as long as he keeps making strides to find a secondary offering that can step up when his signature changeup is missing, his success will continue to become more sustainable. (View Game Card)
Sean Newcomb (CHW) @ DET (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 42 pitches.
Newcomb was the opener, but he did about as well as you can do, dominating for three perfect frames. Should he be a starter? I wouldn’t be opposed to it if he can maintain the improved control we’ve seen from him as a reliever the past two years. Joe Rock was the intended bulk reliever, but he didn’t provide much bulk, going 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 47 pitches (L). He’s not stretched out, and his arsenal doesn’t speak to success. Low 90s, two-plane four-seamers paired with mid-80s sliders from the left side don’t get me excited. (View Game Card)
Joey Cantillo (CLE) @ HOU (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 98 pitches.
Who was it that said if the increased velocity and reliance on cutters and curveballs stick, we might be able to start trusting Cantillo again? Was that me? Check your ego, buddy. Well, he once again sat 93-94 mph with his four-seamer, threw curveballs as his primary pitch, and continued to rely on cutters as an integral supporting offering. With the hook at 81, it absolutely dominated with 13 whiffs and 45% CSW, changeups were chaotic, but batters couldn’t do anything with them, and four-seamers and cutters held it all together with 73% strikes. Not only did the changes stick and produce great results, but they came with the exalted Golden Goal, signalling the second coming of JC. I’d be grabbing him everywhere for his next start against the LHP-prone Mariners. (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 84 pitches.
Melton allowed a leadoff homer to kick off his start, then locked in for six no-hit frames the rest of the way. Never turn off a start after the first batter. He had maybe six pitches land in the middle part of the zone, allowing him to avoid damage by living on the edges with hard four-seamers and cutters. Avoiding the heart of the plate had its downsides, as he returned 55% overall strikes, leading to three free passes. Koufax had his back, allowing him to go 13/14 outs on balls in play and strand the few baserunners he allowed. He keeps living that Toby life, but he’s yet to display the strikeout ceiling that gets us excited to roster him. (View Game Card)
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
After his disaster in Vegas, I was worried Sugano’s shot at the first sub-4.00 ERA by a qualified Rockies starter since 2018 (excluding 2020) was dashed, but he locked right back in with what might have been his best outing of the year. The kitchen sink is shining, just like his Gold Star, and I just want every pitcher to be dope. Make us proud, Sugano! (View Game Card)
Connelly Early (BOS) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.
Early had everything going his way in this one. The dome did him some favors, allowing him to grab a couple of ticks (up to 95 mph) and improved movement (17-18″ of iVB) on his four-seamer, leading to 38% CSW with the heater. Hits were hard to come by as Koufax sprinkled some magic dust on his batted ball luck, leading to 10/12 outs on balls in play. I’m concerned that he produced his lowest overall strike rate of the year (tied with a start vs NYY on April 21st), with his poor command manifesting in the form of three hit batsmen. We can’t expect the velo or vert to stick, and he won’t get away with the same batted ball lack moving forward. He’s making it hard to believe that he’ll achieve and hold the ceiling he’s hinted at, but he’s worth rostering everywhere as a Holly. You’ll just have to be okay dealing with the inherent volatility that accompanies a rookie pitcher. (View Game Card)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonne ace. Way to get back on track after your stumble last time out. Can you just do better than 58% strikes on changeups and sliders so we can get the 15+ whiff outings of old back? K, thanks. (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) vs SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Nick suggested this start would be the return to dominance for Gore. It made sense against the LHP-prone Padres after he settled in during his last start with plenty of changeup whiffs, improved four-seamer velo and approach angle, curveballs stealing strikes, and a high CSW cutter. None of that returned. Just two changeup whiffs, four-seamers back down to 95.5 mph and 1.2 HAVAA, curveballs returning only 52% strikes, and cutters inducing just 17% CSW, and yet, he still found success. I think he was fortunate to do so with 67% hard contact, and I don’t think he’s shaken the HIPSTER label. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ NYY (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
He just keeps getting it done with a Dusty Donut. Where does he source all of this smoke and all of these mirrors? I hear they have pretty good deals if you buy in bulk from the company that supplies your local magic stores. That’s a 2.41 ERA across his last 10 starts that looks obviously unsustainable next to his 11% walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate. Vargas Rule this for as long as he’s pulling the right strings. Is this your card? Yes! It is? Hmmm, maybe I am a magician. (View Game Card)
Kyle Harrison (MIL) @ ATL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.
It’s not the same precision we saw from Harrison earlier this year. Heaters and curveballs aren’t bunkbedding it. Too many heaters landed middle or low, and too many curveballs were high or way out of the zone. Still, no one can touch him. The only blemish was a solo shot on a beautiful four-seamer up and away, masterfully handled by known lefty-killer Ozzie Albies. That was until the seventh, where he got an out before putting two men on, getting removed from the ballgame, and watching an inherited runner score for a Careful, Icarus. The cracks in the armor are starting to become obvious, but we keep starting him until opposing offenses find a way to hurt him. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ COL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace in Coors. His four-seamer command has been awesome recently. Go get that #1 spot back! (View Game Card)
Will Warren (NYY) vs CIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
Does Philly have good donuts? Why do you ask? This was in New York. I heard they’re dusty. Touché. Warren has still been unable to lock down his secondaries to support his solid heaters. But they combined for 64% strikes! And just 2/25 whiffs as they were all over the place. Touché. There’s an argument that he was Singled Out, but the two singles he allowed didn’t actually bite him. He allowed five doubles and a three-run dinger that wasn’t accounted for on his ledger due to an error. He was clearly not at his sharpest. Then explain the strikeouts! An unsustainable 73% putaway rate. Touché. (View Game Card)
Max Meyer (MIA) vs SFG (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.
Back in the friendly confines of LoanDepot Park, Meyer recovered his four-seamer iVB (18-19″ here!) and continued his exceptional winning streak. He’s now 8-0 on the season and has looked like an ace ever since he unveiled his new-look heater. I think he deserves the tag, Nick! (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) @ ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
Like that fly you swatted but didn’t quite take care of, Bradley survived…barely. He threw enough strikes with four-seamers and cutters to give him a chance, but got away with plenty of balls in play. He was lucky there weren’t more balls in play as the Sneks fouled off 14 foul balls and were equally passive against them with 14 called strikes. The splitter locations were absolutely laughable as well, with 11/15 landing in the top half or above the zone. He escaped on his last life, serving up a two-run shot in the fifth before leaving with his ratios intact. This HIPSTER isn’t worth chasing. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ TBR (ND) – 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 68 pitches.
Cavalli didn’t have it. What? His curveball? No, no, no. He always has that. 38% CSW as he threw it over 30% of the time (yay!). Then what? Everything else. Oh. Four-seamers, sinkers, changeups, and sweepers combined for just 53% strikes and 19% CSW, making him ultra inefficient and forcing him out of the ballgame before the end of the third frame. I understand the Ben Brown comp that Nick’s been making, it’s just hard for me to swallow cause Cade and I are so close. Have you even met him? No…t yet! (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna return a PQS as four-seamers didn’t land upstairs as they should. Hopefully, the results teach him not to mess with the proven success of the BSB. (View Game Card)
Ian Seymour (TBR) vs WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
You’ve got my attention, Seymour. I don’t want the underwhelming results to bury the fact that he faced the number one offense against LHP and lived to tell the tale.. He deserved to get Singled Out with too many changeups and sweepers landing in the nitro zone, but he threw enough strikes with them (73%) and lived on the edges of the zone enough with four-seamers, that I can totally see how this works against a weaker offense. I’m down to give him a shot with KCR x2 on deck, especially if they’re without Bobby Witt Jr.. (View Game Card)
Patrick Corbin (TOR) @ CHC (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 101 pitches.
Corbin was super inefficient, throwing 53% strikes with changeups, sliders, and sinkers. He refused to throw four-seamers as anything other than a surprise pitch upstairs. Isn’t that what they should be saved for? Yeah, but he could’ve used some help in the strike department. I guess that’s what cutters are for, but he refused to throw them vs RHB. That’s three straight starts of Corbin failing to complete the fourth frame. We’ve spent too much time on him already. (View Game Card)
Trevor McDonald (SFG) @ MIA (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 69 pitches.
He’s completely lost the feel for his dope sliders. 46% strikes?! Come on, McDonald, we gotta do better than that. We can’t rely on sinkers and changeups picking up the slack. With Tyler Mahle set to rejoin the rotation on Wednesday, you have to figure they’ll give McDonald a break in the minors. Let’s hope he can rediscover the feel for that breaker that made him interesting for six weeks. (View Game Card)
J.T. Ginn (ATH) vs LAA (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
I’m glad the velocity scare from last time didn’t stick, but Ginn still hasn’t figured out how to survive in Sacré Verde. He has a 4.29 ERA at home compared to a 1.99 ERA on the road. That ballpark isn’t kind to anyone, but he hasn’t really been bitten by the long ball like the park factor would suggest (second-most HRs in baseball since 2025, behind Dodger Stadium). Maybe it’s just a mental thing where he’s conscious of the park’s effects and pitches more carefully. He’s walked 3% more batters (and struck out 13% fewer batters) at home without notable changes to his zone or strike rates. That suggests he’s losing his confidence when it matters most, and he’s afraid to challenge hitters. I’m fine streaming him @LAA next, but we’ll keep avoiding him in his home starts. (View Game Card)
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs BOS (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 76 pitches.
Is this the end? Hancock hasn’t recovered his four-seamer vert and hasn’t found the feel for his secondaries. He did his best to force his sweeper to come alive, pumping up its usage to 26%, but it returned just 40% strikes, putting him in poor counts often. That’s now 11 earned runs across his last two starts. With the lefty-heavy Guardians up next, his elite sinker won’t be able to save him from disaster. It’s time to let go. This might ultimately be the source of the cure for the Mariners’ piggyback situation. (View Game Card)
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 90 pitches.
Arrighetti finally listened and expanded his arsenal beyond his four-seamer, and it resulted in his worst start of the year. Is this what you wanted?! The long ball luck came to an end in one fell swoop. Arrighetti entered this start having allowed just three homers in 11 starts, but he served up a trio of homers in this one alone. It may have been a result of a conscious effort to avoid the free pass by living in the zone more often. His 50% zone rate marks just the second time he’s eclipsed 45% this year. I gotta say, I prefer the Pasta Pirate who slings cannonballs with reckless abandon. His lack of command will make him a volatile HIPSTER all year. (View Game Card)
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 9 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
It’s getting really ugly. Batters aren’t chasing Gallen’s well-located sliders and changeups out of the zone, and they didn’t have any problem tagging his four-seamers and curveballs in the zone. This was a textbook Singled Out as he returned an absurd .545 BABIP with just three extra-base hits, including three inherited runners scoring after he was lifted with the bases loaded and nobody out in the fifth. It’s not like this is that much of an outlier, though, as Gallen entered this start with an ERA over five and a WHIP over 1.50 with a sub-15% strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks might have to do something drastic to fix him. (View Game Card)
Freddy Peralta (NYM) @ PHI (L) – 2.2 IP, 10 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 80 pitches.
YIKES! The Mets have really cursed Peralta. Four-seamers at 94 weren’t sneaking by anyone upstairs, and secondaries failed to ease the pressure. He’s had an inflated WHIP all year, and now he’s struggling to induce the whiffs he needs to find even a modicum of success. His schedule doesn’t ease up with CHC, @TOR, @ATL over the next couple of weeks, and it’s hard to know what to do. Given his volatile nature, I think it’s best to keep starting him and praying we get Fastball Freddy instead of Professor Chaos, but I understand benching him until he displays an outing worth getting excited about. The upside is too high to be dropping after a rough few weeks. Don’t forget, he held a 3.52 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate through his first 11 starts. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Gerrit Cole vs. Chase Burns – Four-seamers and sliders galore. Who does it better?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
