Spring Training has arrived and as I’ve been writing daily notes for myself to recap all spring training starting pitchers, I realized I should publish them on the site for quick access.
I’ll be livestreaming every morning 10am-12pm ET at playback.tv/pitcherlist as I watch all of the starts with y’all and answer all your fantasy baseball questions.
Major SP News To Know
Mason Black is expected to be a part of the Giants rotation out of camp. I’m kinda intrigued here as Black has a low arm angle four-seamer/slider arm (not sinker…?) with that breaker missing many bats. If he’s found a changeup (PLEASE WEBB, TEACH THE MAN), then this could be some legit sneaky value. I just want one game with video and data.
Sonny Gray should throw a bullpen next week and could return in time for opening day. I still think the Cardinals will play it safe for a start to kick off the year, but this is great news.
Don’t expect Kodai Senga to return until the end of May as “early May [could only happen] if everything goes perfectly“.
Sawyer Gipson-Long is getting back on track and will throw a bullpen today. He won’t be in the rotation out of camp, though he’s worth the pickup when he arrives in the rotation later this year.
There’s a chance Alex Cobb returns sooner than expected, as he’s slated to throw batting practice on Monday. I don’t consider him an arm for 12-teamers even when he returns, but it has consequences for the Giants rotation. It does mean he could return by the end of April or early May, instead of June or later than initially thought.
The Dodgers will place Emmet Sheehan on the IL to begin the season, making Gavin Stone the favorite for the #5 SP spot. This may be a good thing for Sheehan as stashing him is easier in the IL spot than as a roster spot. Something to consider if you have a free move in your league.
The Angels have officially released Zach Plesac. It wasn’t much of a dream, but it has officially dissipated into the sands of time.
Expected Rotations By Team
Statcast Games – TV
MIN vs. PIT
HOU vs. PHI
NYY vs. TOR
Louie Varland (MIN) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. He’s at 95 mph and returned 10/11 cutter strikes, though 4/32 whiffs could be better, even if its a respectable 12% SwStr overall. He really danced around the edges of the plate, too, and hot dang, let the man start in the rotation. Please Minnesota, he has the four-pitch mix you want to see from a starter (okay, the change needs some work, but four-seamer/slider/cutter!) and he’s ready to fill Bailey Ober’s 2023 role. Let. Him. Cook. Follow the news on Anthony DeScalfani daily and determine how serious Minnesota is to actually let Tony Disco start out of the gate. H*ck, even if they do, I wonder how long it takes for DeSclafani to lose the job.
Martín Pérez (PIT) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. The changeup and cutter were cooking, as the Pirates found themselves with their own Wade Miley. Now will he always have this command is another question.
Roansy Contreras (PIT) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. The velocity is still up, but at just 95 mph and 0/22 whiffs on his four-seamer should tell you may want to hike another trail.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Womp womp. He’s clearly behind Ronel Blanco, though I should note 10/46 whiffs is pretty dang cool as his change and curve returned 7/14 between them. Solid general command, too, following the BSB well, though his 93/94 mph heater leaves a little bit to be desired. I’d pay attention when he shows up to start at some point this year, even as just a sneaky streamer.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s down a tick but avoided the heart of the plate effectively, even executing high four-seamers for once. That’s cool, and yet it’s squeezing the most out of what he has. Y’all don’t want to draft this.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. He’s chilling. Just 2/53 whiffs, sadly, but plenty of called strikes as the man will continue to rely on his defense to make it work. That’s a Toby.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Still down at 1-2 ticks, but that’s by design with Bassitt. His sinker continues to be one of the best in the game at stealing called strikes and I get the sense he’s falling a little too far in drafts currently. This is a Holly with many innings and Wins ahead and you should be happy with that.
Statcast Games – No TV
CHC vs. ARI
NYM vs. MIA
MIL vs. OAK
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Whoa, 22 four-seamers vs. 19 sinkers?! Why? He also threw just two changeups and suddenly 15 curveballs…ah. Clearly a “let’s test some things out” game. Narrator: It didn’t work out.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Kelly leaned away from changeups and messed around with his slider, curve, and cutter as well, but tossed just 21 pitches in total. Nothing to report here.
Luis Severino (NYM) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Aha! He’s back to four-seamers over sinkers (13 vs. 6), though he’s sitting 95/96, not 96/97, with an inch less vertical break. At least he’s locating them upstairs well, but without the secondaries earning whiffs as he left them up in the zone constantly (1/20 is bleeeegh) I’m still out. I need more.
Eury Pérez (MIA) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Eury worked on the curve over the slider and it was great. Sure, 10/17 strikes isn’t ideal, but when thrown early, it was over the plate (maybe too over the plate, but I’m here for it), and then was spotted beautifully down-and-gloveside when aiming for the strikeout. I absolutely hope that sticks as he incorporates the slider back into the mix. As for the heater, he’s still failing to get out of ym-Loc%, featuring most of his pitches thigh-high instead of fully into the top third of the zone, but at least he’s not landing the pitch low anymore – that’s where it’s easiest to hit Pérez’s flat four-seamer, if you can believe it. You’re so close from taking over all of baseball with that fastball and yet so far…
Carlos F. Rodriguez (MIL) – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. There’s some intrigue with Carlos, who has a lovely changeup and full kitchen-sink arsenal, but he’s too far away on the depth chart and doesn’t feature a four-seamer to care a whole lot about at 92 mph. Carry on.
Mitch Spence (OAK) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s a 90/91 mph heater that he pounds the bottom of the zone with, while the curve is inconsistent and the cutter tries to sneak it for strikes. This ain’t it, though if Boyle can’t go four without walking the farm, Spence may find himself a shocking SP #5 spot that we all ignore.
Mason Miller (OAK) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. He sat 99.7 mph and hit 100.9 while his slider went 80% strikes. Sigh.
No Statcast – TV
PIT vs. ATL
COL vs. LAA
SEA vs. CHC
Marco Gonzales (PIT) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Yep, that’s Gonzo.
Max Fried (ATL) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Yeah, that’s not great. At least his velocity was there, hitting 97 mph and making me think he just needs to dust off the cobwebs. The velocity suggests the forearm injury of old may be behind him and that’s truly all I care about this spring. With every healthy start at this velocity, I move Fried up my ranks.
Austin Gomber (COL) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. That’s cool, but you know. Yeah…Yeah.
José Soriano (LAA) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. That’s five strikeouts from a guy sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s…nah. He’s not actually starting, right? RIGHT?! I don’t trust it, especially with his terrible four-seamer shape as a reliever last year. He’s more about sinkers and its horizontal movement, though do we trust him to locate them well and get by against LHB with his four-seamer? Probably not? Don’t forget the curve he tossed 40% of the time as a reliever and boasted a 42% CSW across the year. It’s a great pitch and if he can balance the heaters with this curve and keep its strike rate at the 63% clip from last year (or higher…?), then I can grasp it working out. It’s just…the Angels ya’ll. And who does he kick out of the rotation? Silseth?!
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. We’ll see him at some point this year and when that time comes, we’ll fortunately know how he’s looking in the minors beforehand. What we saw last year was a solid Toby arm and let’s hope that’s what we get later this year.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I’ve been impressed and disappointed at the same time with Imanaga. He allowed a HR on a pitch that I’m shocked returned a solo shot, while he’s not executing his four-seamer nearly as well as I’d hoped. Meanwhile, I haven’t seen many splitters or curves take over in games, with the slider looking blissful at times and others being a little too hittable. It seems like he just needs more time as the raw stuff is there but his daunting sword of an arsenal is currently just a little too heavy to wield with grace.
No Statcast – No TV
OAK vs. MIL
KCR vs. TEX
CHW vs. CLE
DET vs. BAL
STL vs. NAT
Ross Stripling (OAK) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Blegh. I needed to see Stripling dominate for me to even consider him entering the year and we’re clearly not there.
DL Hall (MIL) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhh, he had a rough first, and he’s still working on his changeup and backfoot slider to RHB, and it does make me a bit concerned we won’t see a polished enough arm in April to justify a draft pick in March. That said, he seems like a legit arm who could find his stride by May and dominate from there. This is a tough call and as of now, I say draft him, then explore options after the first week. Or, maybe he dominates moving forward and things are beautiful. I prefer option two. Don’t we all.
Seth Lugo (KCR) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. That’s better. He’s a 15-teamer option though I still don’t believe he’ll be able to replicate his 2023 again.
Jack Leiter (TEX) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. THEY PROMISED THIS WOULD BE ON TV. Was apparently hitting 97, though his command clearly wavered. If this was more dominant, I’d wonder if he’d force an opening day job, but for now we likely have to wait until late April or early May. Hopefully he’s in full force by then.
Erick Fedde (CHW) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. Meh. I think for us to lean into Fedde, he needs to have outings that blow us away, you know? Keep tabs on it and I can’t wait until we actually get data.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Looks fine to me. Still haven’t gotten the data or video to really assess him yet, sadly.
Tyler Beede (CLE) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Look, he’s still here and I can’t get rid of the idea that he finds a rotation spot somewhere in the league once the Guardians let him go. It’s more for my own hope and enthusiasm than for fantasy relevance, just join me in the fun, okay?
Casey Mize (DET) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. The whispers are that Mize will be out of the rotation to start the year with Olson taking the fifth spot and this start doesn’t suggest otherwise, though it’s good to see him continue to stretch out. This could be a final-week decision, so strap in ya’ll.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. I wish I could have seen this one as his last outing came without the command I know Grayson should have. The line doesn’t suggest he’s clicked into place quite yet, and that’s alright. It’s not even March 10th.
What To Watch on TV Today
SPs to watch on TV today #SpringSPnotes
Updates via Plus Pitch Podcast & SP Roundup article.
RICKY TIEDEMANN'S SPRING DEBUT
José Urquidy – High four-seamers?
Sean Manaea – New cutter?
Steven Matz – Healthy n all?
Taijuan Walker – What's your deal
Chris Sale – Still 95 mph?…— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) March 9, 2024
FWIW Plesac was optioned, not released, so the final nail isn’t quite in the coffin yet.