Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 68-49
My pick yesterday: Ryne Nelson @ SFG
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 59-58
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Ryne Nelson @ SFG
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Spencer Strider vs. LAA – Aces gonna ace.
Zac Gallen @ SFG – Aces gonna ace. He’s been weird with his approach and command, but it’s such a lovely matchup.
Pablo López @ STL – He feels like an AGA arm, but the few blowups have kept his ERA higher than expected. On the stream this morning, I took another dive into Pablo and realized some fun facts: He has four pitches above an 80th percentile PLV, three of which are 90th+ percentile in Quality Pitch minus bad Pitch (insane). His fifth pitch is a sinker he exclusively throws to right-handers inside, returning a 94th percentile O-Swing and 96th percentile inside location. Sorry for all the numbers n all, it’s to say Pablo has one of the most well-rounded arsenals in baseball and I LOVE IT.
Sandy Alcantara vs. PHI – He was masterful in his last outing and it may be the start of a legit groove for the second half. He’s too good to have the ratios you see now.
Framber Valdez vs. CLE – Valdez lost his AGA label as he’s been shaky across his last five outings now. I don’t believe it’ll stick and we start him against the Guardians.
Freddy Peralta @ WSN – There’s an argument to be made for Peralta to be above Valdez given how dominant he was last time and with the Nationals ahead. I want to see more of it before getting too excited and I’m looking forward to this one.
Justin Steele vs. CIN – The four-seamer and slider were not nearly as precise last time out and yet we don’t care and start him. It’s likely a one day thing.
Probably Starts
Zach Eflin @ NYY – He’s been cleared to start after his barking knee messed up his last outing. As long as he starts, we should feel good about Eflin, though he may be a little limited as a precaution.
Bryce Miller vs. BOS – Bryce isn’t as dominant with the four-seamer lately as he was out of the gate, though he’s still very worthwhile in this matchup against the Red Sox.
Carlos Rodón vs. TBR – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Rodón is only going to get better as the season goes on. The Rays are also trending down offensively and it makes this decision a bit easier. Do not treat Rodón as the pitch you’ve seen shake off rust in July.
Lance Lynn vs. OAK – I don’t have a whole lot of faith (maybe a tinge?) that the Dodgers are going to fix Lynn, but this is too good of a matchup to pass up, even if it’s just for the strikeouts.
Brayan Bello @ SEA – Bello’s new cutter hopefully gets featured more than five times here as he takes on a middling offense.
José Quintana @ KCR – It’s a perfect matchup (in Kansas City, too!) and Quintana’s command is better than I expected this early from his return from the IL.
UPDATE: Alex Cobb vs. ARI – He got his splitter back last start and with his signature pitch, Cobb is worth your time.
Jack Flaherty vs. MIN – He’s fine. I don’t love it, but I think Flaherty is good enough to start over benching.
Questionable Starts
Jon Gray vs. CHW – Gray’s slider is cooking, but is the fastball in a good enough spot? This could be the outing where things start becoming wonderful again for Gray.
Gavin Williams @ HOU – I love Gavin’s heater upstairs. I hate the feel of the breakers. He’ll get better with more starts, but this one may be one of his growing pains outings.
Johan Oviedo vs. DET – It’s a solid matchup and Oviedo’s breakers can earn a ton of whiffs. But is that fastball too hittable…
Josiah Gray vs. MIL – Josiah may have figured something out by becoming Canibal McSanchez and I’d want to see another start of it before jumping in.
Matt Manning @ PIT – Great matchup, horrible last start. Thing is, Manning’s velocity jumped to 95 mph and he returned slider whiffs. It was just the locations and if that locks in…
UPDATE: Andrew Heaney vs. CHW – Even against a whiff-heavy team like the White Sox, Heaney is a major liability as we don’t know what kind of command he’ll have on a given night.
Kyle Bradish @ TOR – Bradish was on a hot stretch before his last outing and now he gets the Jays. Blegh. If his slider and curve are fantastic, he’ll survive regardless of the opposition.
Do Not Starts
Hyun Jin Ryu vs. BAL – Whoa, HE’S BACK! Ryu is returning from TJS and I’m stoked to see where he’s at. It’s a very clear Still ILL, but I’d recommend a spec add and take it from there.
Ranger Suárez @ MIA – The Marlins aren’t a bottom-of-the-barrel offense and Suárez isn’t in the command groove he needs to be in.
UPDATE: Miles Mikolas vs. MIN – Mikolas appealed his suspension, allowing him to start on short rest after his early ejection. I hate trusting Mikolas these days, but if you’re desperate for a Quality Start, there’s a chance here.
Ben Lively @ CHC – The slider isn’t what it used to be. He’s been a little better over the last month, but I’m not into it.
Patrick Sandoval @ ATL – It’s Atlanta and The Irish Panda hasn’t had both his slider and changeup dominating in ages.
Alex Wood vs. ARI – He hasn’t come through against weak opponents.
Ken Waldichuk @ LAD – It’s the Dodgers and Waldichuk isn’t polished yet.
Zack Greinke vs. NYM – Greinke does what Greinke does.
Peter Lambert vs. SDP – He had some success lately…? Nah it’s Coors.
Ryan Weathers @ COL – Absolutely not.
Jesse Scholtens @ TEX – Is he even going to go five? Do we want him to?
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Auto-Starts
Gerrit Cole vs. TBR – Aces gonna ace. He’s too good.
Shane McClanahan @ NYY – Aces gonna ace. Don’t let the last two outings make you think otherwise.
Zack Wheeler @ MIA – He’s been just as good as Cole over the last month and change.
Joe Ryan @ STL – Ryan has been shaky and the secondaries haven’t come through. Still, I think he’s better than his recent performance and the four-seamer will overwhelm. The strikeout potential is too high.
Logan Webb vs. ARI – Webb is solid as a rock. That changeup is insane.
Kodai Senga @ KCR – The spice strikeouts flow and it’s the Royals.
Joe Musgrove @ COL – It’s Coors and yet we still start Musgrove.
Probably Starts
Logan Gilbert vs. BOS – Gilbert isn’t locked in with the four-seamer (1/50 whiffs last start?!) and that feels so dang weird. It can’t last, right?
Eduardo Rodriguez @ PIT – Yeaaaaah Eduardo isn’t making this start. He’s going to get dealt before the 6 pm ET today and it could be someone like Alex Faedo taking his spot. Faedo would be at the bottom of questionable with this matchup (maybe the slider is there?). Could also be a bullpen game. Wherever Eduardo does get traded to, he’ll likely be in this tier save for facing a tough squad. If it’s the Dodgers, that’s Oakland and SIGN ME UP. Houston would be CLE/NYY, and Baltimore would be @TOR. Only Baltimore would be a questionable start.
Tony Gonsolin vs. OAK – It’s Oakland. I consider him a Toby and this is why you have him.
Yusei Kikuchi vs. BAL – The new curve is solid and even facing a dangerous Orioles crew, I think you go with Kikuchi.
Jack Flaherty vs. MIN – He’s fine. I don’t love it, but I think Flaherty is good enough to start over benching. This may be the start that has me say “okay fine, let’s move on Flaherty.” He needs more fastball strikes and the slider to flirt with its former 18-20% SwStr rate self.
Tanner Bibee @ HOU – I could have Bibee over Flaherty, but the Astros are plenty dangerous and Bibee has only had one outing where I saw everything properly come together.
Grayson Rodriguez @ TOR – Do you want this higher? In the third tier? It’s hard to tell as Grayson has been electric at times and certainly better with his change and breakers in his last two outings, but we don’t know how sticky that is yet + the Jays are hot. Be careful if you’re in a precarious situation.
Questionable Starts
Jon Gray vs. CHW – Gray’s slider is cooking, but is the fastball in a good enough spot? This could be the outing where things start becoming wonderful again for Gray.
Kutter Crawford @ SEA – Crawford’s four-seamer is a strong offering and the kutter hasn’t been so bad, making a start against Seattle appealing. I still wish he would lean more on developing his breakers, though.
Dylan Cease @ TEX – Cease is opponent agnostic, which means it depends moreso on his slider and four-seamer command than the strength of the lineup he faces. That said, he’ll be punished more than usual in Texas.
Lucas Giolito @ ATL – It’s Atlanta and it’s also the sturdy Giolito. Tough call all around here, it might end up being a slightly below average start and we move on.
MacKenzie Gore vs. MIL – Some may want to push Gore higher as the Brewers are a poor offense, but Gore is as Cherry Bomb as it gets.
Wade Miley @ WSN – It’s a Still ILL though I can still see Miley churning five frames with ease.
Braxton Garrett vs. PHI – His slider was better last time out, but the cutter and sinker have work to do. Hopefully they improve here.
Brandon Williamson @ CHC – I like the four-seamer and cutter approach, especially with the new velocity. He still has a little command polish left + he’s missing a proper whiff pitch as his #3, but this may be enough for now.
Ronel Blanco vs. CLE – I love Blanco’s slider, but he may not go long and the Guardians don’t strike out. In addition, this could be another starter the Astros acquire today instead as they’ve pushed back Cristian Javier a day to Wednesday.
Do Not Starts
Drew Smyly vs. CIN – Smyly was better in his last start with his sinker and slider, though the curve is still the one that isn’t quite what I want it to be yet.
Hogan Harris @ LAD – There’s a chance the crafty lefty figures out how to go 5+ frames against the Dodgers. The reward isn’t worth it though.
Kyle Freeland vs. SDP – It’s Coors and it’s Freeland. Noooope.
Osvaldo Bido vs. DET – I’d have him higher if I believed the Pirates would let Bido go 5+ frames without question.
Alec Marsh vs. NYM – His four-seamer is not good enough. This has a higher chance of hurting than help.
Yonny Chirinos vs. LAA – Despite the possible Win chance, I think Chirinos is detrimental to fantasy managers with his repertoire. Also, he may not start this one if Atlanta gets an arm before the deadline.
TBD Diamondbacks SP @ SFG – The Diamondbacks are looking for one more starter and have an open spot with Drey Jameson and Tommy Henry on the mend. If needed, it’s a bullpen game or maybe a surprise callup that I wouldn’t chase.
Featured Image by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)