The List 7/12: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 16

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 16 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• This is the most important line of the notes. I’ve had to remove a ton of legit Top 50 arms this week due to “injury” – i.e. many of them will be returning next week as teams make clear if it was just an extra-rest IL stint for the All-Star break or if they are actually injured. Following rule #1 above, I’m forced to remove them from The List and it has created so much green in the Top 50 starters.
• I had to remove: Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Ian Anderson, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Joe Ross, and Ryan Weathers. Please keep this in mind as you say “Whaaaaaat, that guy isn’t Top 30!” as you look at The List today – Normally he isn’t, but according to the rules, he is now. It’s all relative to the landscape, after all.
• Okay, with that aside, let’s stick to our regular programming.

 

• A good amount of arms were demoted to Triple-A despite our expectation that they’ll return to the rotation post All-Star Break. The main two arms of note were Kyle Muller and Logan Webb, who will each likely be back on The List next week when they are confirmed to have a rotation spot. Both Webb and Muller would be ranked today around the late 50s/early 60s as I’d give the slight nod to Muller.

 

• Tier 1 is the same because duh.
• I’ve added Gerrit Cole back to Tier 2 as he re-established him as a bonafide ace against the Astros, going nearly 130 pitches in a complete-game shutout. It’s safe to say our concerns have been put to rest.

 

• Nothing to report in Tier 3. At some point, I will have to lower Corbin Burnes as he reaches his innings apex, but given it’s all speculation and nothing finalized now, you’re better off just holding and enjoy the production as long as it lasts. Who knows, maybe he misses a start early or the Brewers elect to push him as they fight for a playoff spot.
• I will mention that Walker Buehler had his secondaries working well last start (finally!) but we don’t know if it’s here to stay just yet.

 

• In the fourth tier, it does seem weird that Julio Urías and Pablo López are here without an AGA tag, but I imagine both will earn them soon enough. Pablo stays behind Sandy Alcántara despite better 2021 numbers as I believe in Sandy’s overall repertoire more for the ~12 weeks ahead.
• I gave Robbie Ray the jump to #12 as he doesn’t have the same expected innings limits that will come for Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta. There isn’t much more the man needs to prove, after all.

 

• I gave a dip to Max Fried and Framber Valdez in tier five as neither has performed up to their potential as of late. I can see both as constant 6+ arms focused more on ratios than strikeouts, but for now, guys like Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers, and Tyler Mahle have done more and don’t look to be stopping any time soon.
• Major props to Shohei Ohtani for bouncing back after a horrible two-out performance against the Yankees. He’s certainly done enough since a rocky start of the season to earn the Top 25 spot now (with all the injured and removed arms, of course).

 

• Tier six welcomes back Kyle Gibson who had his first stumble in a long time. I don’t believe it’s the first sign of descension, but I can’t ignore the possibility.
• Nothing else changes inside of the tier save for Anthony DeSclafani jumping ahead of Dylan Cease as Tony Disco continues to plow through weak opponents. Sure, he’s not going to excel against the toughest of teams, but he’s going to help in ~75% of his starts, if not more. There’s legit value in that.

 

• Again, nothing really major here. Kenta Maeda and Germán Márquez each continued their trend upward and we’re all crossing our fingers both can stay there through September.
• Alex Wood got a bump as well as his slider dominated in a big way, suggesting a return to his May ability. I’d roll with him now in hopes that it sticks.

 

• Tier 8 features a few arms I’m thrilled to catch for each start. Frankie Montas just had the best outing of possibly his entire career against the Astros, dotting fastballs on the edges, landing sliders for strikes as he avoided the heart of the plate, and earning plenty of whiffs on splitters. It’s no guarantee that it hangs around, but I want to start Montas next time out and see how it goes.
• Patrick Sandoval – aka The Irish Panda – aka The Panada – is a joy to watch as he sits mid-90s with heaters, paired with a slider and changeup that each miss bats. There’s a feeling of legit ace upside here and I’d hold him everywhere, regardless of the easy schedule he’s had so far.

 

• I have to note that Jon Gray just sat 96.8 mph on his heater over the weekend – over two ticks from his pre-injury average. He’s been pumping gas since his return and makes for a fascinating play as he could be leaving Colorado in the next few weeks.
• Given the recent injury scare, I elected to lower Zack Greinke and group him with Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman, two pitchers who can have productive volume but at the cost of strikeouts.

 

• The ninth tier begins with a fun rookie in Logan Gilbert, who flashed a legit slider to pair with his excellent heater in his last start. I’m skeptical that it will be around indefinitely now, but hitting that peak is a massive step forward and may spell a strong second half ahead.
• Triston McKenzie makes his return to The List all the way at #53 as he returned to the majors suddenly tossing heaters two ticks harder. It propelled him to his best start of the season and is now worth the add in all your leagues. His secondaries aren’t the strongest, but with a fastball thrown like that, they’ll play up.

 

• If you haven’t considered adding Adbert Alzolay to your squads, I’d take the time to think about it. His slider is a legit offering and he’s coming around from a blister injury the had him sputter for a few weeks. He’s worth the gamble over those in lower tiers.
• Don’t neglect the impact Wade Miley has been making as a possible Spider-Man this season. Ratios matter a whole lot, even if it doesn’t come with the strikeout numbers you crave.

 

• Tier 10 is where “The Cliff” hits – the point on The List where guys ranked better should be held and those below should be considered fringe and possibly swapped. Eduardo Rodriguez is the first as his four-seamer allows for successful starts, but without his changeup working in tandem, it’s unclear when he’ll be able to survive.
• Chris Paddack falls eleven spots to #62 as his hint of redemption a few weeks ago is a fleeting memory. There’s work to be done and while I think he can redeem himself over time, it’s harder and harder to hold on and hope for the best.

 

• Don’t overlook Kwang Hyun Kim who has tossed over 90 pitches paired with a strong slider and even a changeup earning whiffs last time out. At the very least, consider him as a streaming candidate.
• Tony Gonsolin looks to have a hold on a spot in the Dodgers rotation…until the trade deadline passes. I’ve given him the bump now as he’s over 80 pitches and will start for a winning ballclub, but I do wonder how long his situation lasts.

 

• I want to like Ross Stripling more, but his lack of effective secondaries is giving me pause. There’s a ceiling for him to hit as he gets the ball every five days and let’s hope he can get there.
• Will Zach Thompson be able to continue his success with a cutter, solid fastball command, and a decent breaker? I hope so.

 

• Tier 11 comes with a few Toby types and some upside intrigue. Cole Irvin certainly has done his part to warrant your attention, but is it worth holding out for the middling ratios over an arm who could make a legit impact? I don’t think so.
• Jameson Taillon has performed better across the last few weeks, though I’m still a little hesitant to jump back in. He hasn’t take the leap with his slider quite yet and while I like the new approach – four-seamer/curveball vs. lefties, sinkers/sliders/four-seamers vs. righties – I haven’t seen enough to suggest he’d be more than just a Toby so far.

 

• Coffee Cakes aka JT Brubaker falls a bit as he hasn’t quite been locked in with his sinker/slider approach. There are some periphery options in his arsenal to help, but they aren’t enough to stave off the troubles. I think there’s still a solid streamer in here and don’t consider him an arm you need to chase.
• I terribly want Patrick Corbin to climb the ranks once again, but he’s simply not showing enough to force a roster spot.

 

• Nick Pivetta falls a few spots as he failed to plateau at his ceiling. Welcome to the land of the Cherry Bomb.
• I’m still a bit interested in Tylor Megill as he fanned another seven batters over the weekend. He wasn’t efficient enough to survive a full five frames, though, and the Mets may shuffle him around a bit in the second half when their starters return.

 

• Tier 12 is a massive one as the pitchers begin to blend together a bit. I wanted to acknowledge that Alex Cobb and Chris Flexen are pitching well enough to make them decent options against weak teams. Merrill Kelly has done the same, even surviving over five frames against the Dodgers before getting a leg cramp.
• Bailey Ober falls a bit after failing to hold onto his fastball command from his previous start. Bummer.

 

• I rose Dallas Keuchel back up as he rebounded in a huge way from his horrid string of starts. His command was as good as I’ve seen and now we wonder if it was more than just a small bounce along the descent.
• It was a poor return for Michael Pineda and it’s hard to latch on when the slider is doing him few favors.

 

• At the back end of the tier are Ryan Yarbrough, Alec Mills, and Tyler Anderson, who each have turned into Toby options to stream. Nothing I’d reach for, but consider them off your wire when needed.
• And let’s add Vladimir Gutiérrez to the mix as his pitch separation is a product of solid command across his kitchen-sink arsenal. Not the sexiest of stuff, but it can work.

 

• Tier 13 starts with Danny Duffy, a man who exploded onto the scene in April and has tried to recapture the magic. His velocity was down last time to 93 mph (not 94/95 mph) and the Royals are keeping him on a tighter leash than we’d like to see as he failed to hit 90 pitches. He could be switching teams at the deadline and hopefully Kansas City lets him loose to display his ability before then…which may not be pretty given that diminished velocity.
• I gave a small hit to Drew Smyly simply because he’s the same guy he’s been all season and others have maneuvered around him. Don’t look into it.

 

• This tier as a whole are the “weird upside guys” who have something about them that could show up at some point. Caleb Smith just got demolished, but his ceiling of 92 mph velocity + sliders & changeups for whiffs is still a thing. Rich Hill could go off on a given notice. Michael Wacha just went 90 pitches and his best changeup of the year.
• Chad Kuhl carries the best slider on the Pirates and it was great to see him lean into it nearly 50% of the time last week. I still question his fastball and support inside the repertoire, but that slider at least opens the door for success.

 

• The Angels replaced Dylan Bundy with José Suarez, who just took down the Mariners with his changeup and breaker. I don’t think he’s a must-add or anything close, but there’s a chance he continues to improve with more experience.
• And let’s welcome back Brady Singer as he’s the Toby that’s somehow also a Cherry Bomb…? It’s complicated. In short, you never really know what you’re going to get and overall, it’s a middling combination of ratios and strikeouts.

 

• In the final tier we have all newcomers except for Marco Gonzales. Marco has done little to suggest 2020 was anything but a fluke, though I won’t ignore the possibility that he’s a tweak away from returning to grace.
• Mike Foltynewicz, J.A. Happ, Dane Dunning, and Brad Keller can be considered streamers this far down The List, though streaming them will always give me anxiety. The floor is terribly low for everyone here.

 

• There’s Matt Manning and Wily Peralta at the tail end of The List this week. Manning hasn’t been anything more than just a Toby thus far and until I see something magical happening with his secondaries, he’ll remain labeled as such. Peralta has somehow been productive for your ratios lately and let’s hope that slider/changeup are this good moving forward.
• Lastly, at #100 is David Price, who was stretched out to ~50 pitches by the Dodgers over the weekend. I expect him to continue stepping forward as a member of the Dodgers’ rotation and to see him sit 94 mph on heaters is a good sign. Keep an eye on him.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
2	Max Scherzer T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
3	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
4	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
6	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lucas Giolito T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
8	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
9	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
10	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
11	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+2
12	Robbie Ray T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
13	Trevor Rogers	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
14	Freddy Peralta	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
15	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
16	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
17	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
18	Joe Musgrove T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
19	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
20	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
21	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+3
22	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
23	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
24	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-7
25	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-7
26	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+5
27	Kyle Gibson T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
28	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
29	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
30	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
31	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
32	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
33	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+8
34	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
35	Tarik Skubal T7	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+3
36	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+4
37	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
38	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+6
39	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+6
40	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+9
41	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+9
42	Alex Wood	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+10
43	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
44	Frankie Montas T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+15
45	Jon Gray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+25
46	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
47	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-4
48	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
49	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
50	Logan Gilbert T9	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+11
51	Adbert Alzolay	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+3
52	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	+4
53	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
54	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+6
55	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+3
56	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
57	Eduardo Rodriguez T10	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+6
58	Zach Eflin	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
59	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
60	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+6
61	Tony Gonsolin	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+16
62	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-11
63	Kwang Hyun Kim	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+17
64	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	+11
65	Ross Stripling	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+9
66	Cole Irvin T11	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+10
67	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+5
68	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	-4
69	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-
70	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
71	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+7
72	Alex Cobb T12	Streaming Option	+18
73	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+18
74	Merrill Kelly	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+8
75	Bailey Ober	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
76	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
77	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+19
78	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb	+3
79	Michael Pineda	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-6
80	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+12
81	Alec Mills	Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+12
82	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+15
83	Vladimir Gutierrez	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
84	Johnny Cueto	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
85	Danny Duffy T13	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+2
86		Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
87	Caleb Smith	Streaming Option	+1
88	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
89	Michael Wacha	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
90	Chad Kuhl	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
91	José Suarez	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
92	Brady Singer	Low Ips Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
93	Mike Foltynewicz T14	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
94	J.A. Happ	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
95	Dane Dunning	Toby Streaming Option	+UR
96	Brad Keller	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
97	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
98	Matt Manning	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
99	Wily Peralta	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
100	David Price	Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR

Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)