The List 8/16: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 21

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 21 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• It’s one of those weeks where I have to make sure everyone understands the major arms who left The List and who joined before we react too harshly over the rank changes. While Gerrit Cole returned to The List, Yu Darvish, Carlos Rodón, Trevor Rogers, and Julio Urías were all removed, instill an innate (+3) to many…until we get to Huascar Ynoa, Tanner Houck, and Anthony DeSclafani at #42, nullifying the major impacts of additions and removals. We cool? Cool.

 

• With Gerrit Cole returning, I made it a five-man top tier with Lance Lynn falling to the second. I think we can all agree that while Lynn has been strong, he’s not quite on the same level as Buehler, Scherzer, Woodruff, Cole, and Wheeler.
• The second tier welcomes Chris Sale as he made his debut against the Orioles. It wasn’t the premier southpaw of the past (fastball was around 93/94, not 95/96) and his slider wasn’t Mr. DOMINATION, but he was still great for fantasy teams and could get even better with more time on the bump. It’s so good to have The BOAT back.

 

• In Tier 3, Lucas Giolito falls a few spots after tossing over 100 pitches to complete just four frames. His volatility has been frustrating through the year and while his strikeouts, volume, WHIP, and Wins make him an elite arm, that ERA is unlikely to land under 3.50. It’s what we’ve come to expect with Giolito failing to carry the same slider and changeup from start to start.
• Charlie Morton deserves the love of Tier 3 as he’s been a consistent producer for many fantasy teams this season after his disastrous April. Let’s hope he can stay healthy through to the end.

 

• I elected to make a monstrous Tier 4 as it’s filled with high upside arms galore, most of whom let us speculate if they can earn the AGA label before season’s end. Freddy Peralta jumps back into the Top 20 as the Brewers have let him fly comfortably in his last two starts, as I continue to throw my hands up in frustration. I’m thrilled to see him pitch more and good luck predicting how the Brewers will use him in the final seven weeks.
• Look at that thirteen-point jump for Alek Manoah! We’ve fallen for his slider this season but he blew me away with 19 whiffs on his four-seamer alone in his start against the Angels. Brett Anderson hasn’t earned that many fastball whiffs all season (Okay that’s not true).

 

• Sandy Alcantara’s rank sticks out a bit as he fell a few spots. It’s more that I felt confident with those above him against stronger opponents, as the taste of Alcantara’s Coors and Dodgers games are still fresh. I’d still start him with confidence.
• Welcome to the Top 25 Chris Bassitt! This was incredibly tough as he’s certainly deserved the love, but he has a gauntlet of a schedule ahead with the ChiSox, Giants, Yankees, and Jays ahead. Good. Luck.

 

• Tier 5 is a little shaky. These guys should be in Tier 4 but all have their questions. Aaron Nola is still struggling with his command, Joe Musgrove didn’t have his elite slider, Alex Wood has the skills but it hasn’t returned the results we expected, and Tyler Mahle is the new José Berríos in his perpetual undulation.
• Then there’s Sean Manaea, who falls a massive twenty spots and lost his AGA label with his third straight outing of disappointment. I’m worried the magic is wearing off as Manaea’s heater has dropped a full tick + his command has fallen with it. I’m not jumping off completely yet and there’s still plenty of time to recover, but it isn’t looking pretty at the moment.

 

• It’s about dang time I moved Adam Wainwright to the Top 35. He’s been absurdly good with a 3.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this year, on the back of the most underrated curveball in the game – 35% usage and a 37% CSW with just a .178 BAA. It’s a force with no signs of slowing down.
• Logan Webb also received a substantial bump this week as he’s been a must-start for managers everywhere for the past month. I’m a bit skeptical his fastball command is this good for the long haul, but he’s had a feel for his slider or changeup each night and could carry it through September on a winning ballclub.

 

• This tier also has a few names returning to The List. It took months, but Huascar Ynoa has recovered from his fractured hand and will return from the IL on Tuesday to face the Marlins. I’d let him fly as he threw over 80 pitches in his final rehab start + it’s Miami. Look for his slider command and get hyped if its command is elite as we saw in May.
• Tanner Houck has officially returned from Triple-A to snag a rotation spot for the Red Sox and I’d be stoked to have him in my twelve teamers. This may seem like an aggressive ranking given the low IPS of his starts thus far, but now that he’s stretched out and with a comfortable spot in the rotation, Houck should blossom into a strong arm for any rotation, with hints of double-digit strikeouts on each night he pitches.

 

• Tier 7 is the Spider-Man tier as all of these arms are vying for the title. I wouldn’t call them awfully exciting but they are stable and help your teams. Nod at them in recognition and move on.
• Anthony DeSclafani has returned from the IL and returns to the Top 45. The Giants have a great schedule ahead and I’m excited to see how he performs in the weeks ahead.

 

• Tier 8. Oh Tier 8. I elected to shove all the major names who have underperformed into one grouping as we heavily debate whether or not they are worth our time vs. an upside arm like Josiah Gray or Triston McKenzie. For example, I’m terrified that Yusei Kikuchi will likely face the Astros thrice over his next four starts. It’s not fair.
• I believe in Zac Gallen getting back into form with more starts as he’s not quite executing his secondaries as well as we saw in 2020. It’s the classic “underperforming or new standard?” question where all I can do is shrug and hope for the best.

 

• Yes, that includes John Means and Carlos Carrasco as well. Carrasco hasn’t had both his slider and changeup working while Means’ fastball dropped over a full tick in his last start, though, and I’m scared it may indicate something larger. We’ll see.
• Sonny Gray had a fantastic start against Atlanta, but did it through his heaters instead of his curveball + didn’t show up against the Mets last time out. Heaters aren’t his ticket for success and what we saw in his last start was a step back in fastball ability and…his curveball & slider fail to improve. I imagine at some point Sonny will get those breakers back, but who knows when.

 

• Tier 9 is a small but intriguing crew. Jon Gray hasn’t been as dominant as his early July self, but still should be a solid play. Josiah Gray has a comfortable schedule with the Nationals and could coast to the finish line, helping managers along the way.
• It didn’t look like Blake Snell did a whole lot to replicate his 25 whiff night as he reverted to curveballs instead of sticking with the “Robbie Ray” approach of fastballs heavily in the zone + sliders to complement them. Still, he’s certainly looking a step up and that massive ceiling could return.

 

• Tier 10 has a mix of considerable options to pad the backend of your rotation + a few risers who may make a major impact in September. I elected to drop James Kaprielian a bit as his early-season rhythm has been interrupted a touch and he’s looking more like a glorified Toby than a replica of Anthony DeSclafani’s fantastic campaign.
• I also dropped Kyle Hendricks significantly after his atrocity against the Brewers. No, I don’t believe Hendricks is destined for it, but after pushing him up the ranks a good amount, it was a humbling reminder of the risk we take having Hendricks in our lineups. He should obviously still be on your roster and starting the majority of the time.

 

• The major risers include Tarik Skubal, Zach Plesac, and Triston McKenzie. I’m a bit shocked I’ve given Skubal this much of a raise and it’s more of a product of how the landscape settled instead of my sudden enthusiasm for the southpaw. He still needs to regain the whiffability of his slider and changeup to fuel my excitement.
• As for the Cleveland starters, Plesac returned one of his better outings of the year, though his fastball did more work than we expected. I’d be a little cautious of his sudden success, though his pedigree suggests there could be a strong September ahead.

 

• Triston McKenzie tossed nearly eight perfect frames against the Tigers with a near BSB approach, however his command still leaves a bit to be desired and I question if he can replicate the approach moving forward.
• It’s nice to see Jordan Montgomery return from COVID as he gets a game of the Yankees/Red Sox doubleheader tomorrow. I don’t believe we’ve seen The Bear peak yet this season and I hope he can squeeze the most out of his excellent curveball and cutter across the final weeks.

 

• The story of Touki Toussaint is pretty simple: He has a great curveball and if that pitch is working, he just needs his heater and splitter to not get crushed. I think that’s a decent bet to make on any given night, though you should play it safe and avoid the tougher opponents.
• Elieser Hernandez returned to the Marlins over the weekend and we’re all thrilled he’s back. His strength is a fantastic slider, which wasn’t at its best and will need to recover if Elieser is to help your ratios down the stretch.

 

• It’s a Vargas Rule for both Madison Bumgarner and Cal Quantrill right now. I don’t buy this for your playoffs in September, but hey, I could be completely wrong here. Bumgarner is still hovering 90 mph on his fastball + Quantrill’s stuff is pretty mediocre. These runs shouldn’t last.
• Luis Gil looks to have a shot at the #5 spot for the Yankees after a pair of impressive outings to kick off his career. It’s a tough matchup against the Red Sox on Tuesday, but if he dominates there with his mid-to-upper 90s heater and a better-than-expected slider, we may be looking at a Top 60 arm soon.

 

• I’m glad to hear that the Tigers will be letting Casey Mize pitch consistently through the end of the year with one start a week. However, the jury is still out if those starts will be a major help for your squads, turning Mize into the first pitcher of Tier 12, the moment “the cliff” hits. Welcome to the potential waiver wire.
• It’s been well discussed how the Mets have a tough schedule ahead and Tylor Megill isn’t in a place where I feel A) He can pull it off and B) His production after facing the Giants + Dodgers is worth the stash for two weeks. Consider other options.

 

• I gave a significant bump to Vladimir Gutiérrez as he’ll be a benefactor of a wonderful schedule for the Reds. This may be your last shot to get a boring, yet stable arm for your rotation if you’re searching for a Toby these days.
• Also consider Tyler Anderson and Marco Gonzales as they have some solid matchups across the next few weeks. They have the ability to produce a Win or QS along the way.

 

• I’ve brought Jake Odorizzi back to The List as the Astros have one of the loveliest schedules ahead. Odorizzi was able to take advantage of Rockie Road and could prosper against the Royals, Mariners (twice), and Rangers across his next four starts.
• I was tempted to slot Carlos Hernández into Tier 12 as well after he’s survived the ChiSox x2 + NYY in his last two outings. His success seems a bit too BABIP friendly, though, and I’d be a bit cautious.

 

• Continuing with Tier 12, Reid Detmers was able to survive Houston by featuring his curveball a ton, including 10 called strikes to get ahead. I have my doubts that Detmers will come into his own this early in his career after his early adversity, but who knows, maybe the kid has it in him.
• Am I a giant Chris Flexen fan? Not exactly, but he could be helpful in the short term against the Rangers and Athletics.

 

• After the top three names in Tier 13 are a six-pack of “high risk, high reward” arms who I’d watch from afar. Daniel Lynch has looked much better in his return to the majors but has an atrocious schedule that I’d avoid unless he dominates regardless. Logan Gilbert hasn’t found his slider and gets the Astros three times in four starts. Luis Patiño had one good outing and hasn’t had his fastball/slider approach working since.
• And who could forget Jesús Luzardo, who is the ultimate PEAS and needs a bit more time to nail down his electric stuff.

 

• The final two tiers are far from interesting. Tier 14 is the more exciting of the pair with a few names who had shocking success this past week – Nestor Cortes, Bailey Ober, and Griffin Jax – but I don’t anticipate a full-on breakout. They’re here since we should take note if they can perform a second time.
• I want to like Braxton Garrett more, but his sub 90 mph stuff didn’t hold up well against a strong opponent in the Padres and I’m concerned he can do well against Atlanta. It’s that simple.

 

• In the final tier, Alec Mills and J.A. Happ return to The List as possible streaming options when you’re looking for a start. Do I recommend chasing their outings? Absolutely not, but hey, you can do worse.
• And at the coveted #100 slot, who else but Tyler Gilbert after he tossed a no-hitter in his first MLB start over the weekend despite sitting below 90 mph. I compared it to Max Kranick’s five no-hit innings from earlier this year in that it’s a situation where the results don’t quite match up with the repertoire. Proceed with caution.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Max ScherzerT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
6	Robbie Ray T2	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
7	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
8	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+3
9	Chris Sale	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
10	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
11	Lucas Giolito T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
12	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
13	Jack Flaherty	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
14	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
15	Lance McCullers Jr. T4	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
16	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+3
17	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+13
18	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
19	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
20	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+13
21	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
22	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
23	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+2
24	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+4
25	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+9
26	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
27	Aaron Nola T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-6
28	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-6
29	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+2
30	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	-20
31	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
32	Adam Wainwright T6	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+11
33	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+13
34	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
35	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+4
36	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+6
37	Huascar Ynoa	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
38	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+6
39	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+14
40	Tanner Houck	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
41	Wade Miley T7	Injury Risk Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+4
42	Anthony DeSclafani	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+UR
43	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+5
44	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
45	Zack Greinke	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+6
46	Yusei Kikuchi T8	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-5
47	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-11
48	Carlos Carrasco	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-13
49	John Means	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-12
50	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-10
51	Jon Gray T9	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
52	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+3
53	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+1
54	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+10
55	James Kaprielian T10	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-5
56	Taijuan Walker	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
57	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+12
58	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	+15
59	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+23
60	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
61	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-14
62	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
63	Touki Toussaint T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+11
64	David Price	Low Ips Playing Time Question	+7
65	Elieser Hernández	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
66	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Toby	+9
67	Austin Gomber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-10
68	Madison Bumgarner	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+8
69	Cal Quantrill	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+11
70	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-12
71	Luis Gil	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
72	Casey Mize T12	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-12
73	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-11
74	Vladimir Gutierrez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+19
75	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
76	Jake Odorizzi	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
77	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+13
78	Marco Gonzales	Toby Ratio Focused	+13
79	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
80	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-2
81	Carlos Hernández T13	Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+18
82		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+15
83	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused	+13
84	Daniel Lynch IV	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-17
85	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-29
86	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-18
87	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-4
88	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	-16
89	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-4
90	Mike Minor T14	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
91	Nestor Cortes	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
92	Bailey Ober	Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
93	Braxton Garrett	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-7
94	Griffin Jax	Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+UR
95	Eli Morgan	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+3
96	JT Brubaker T15	Toby Ratio Focused	-4
97	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-3
98	Alec Mills	Low Ips Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
99	J.A. Happ	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
100	Tyler Gilbert	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)