The List 8/2: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 19

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 19 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Please please don’t yell at me about the top tier. This is by far the hardest Tier 1 of the season. I should be Gerrit Cole, but he hasn’t been as elite as we’ve seen, despite fanning 10 in three of his last four. I want to put Walker Buehler but I still have concerns the Dodgers will limit him in September. Zack Wheeler has certainly been legit, but he hasn’t been that guy recently. The same goes for Brandon Woodruff, who also has a touch of innings limitations on the horizon. Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito have certainly been stable, but aren’t #1 guys.
• So I went with Max Scherzer, who has been a stud this year and had one slip up against the Padres. Now he’s a Dodger, is a rental and will be used as one, and has the track record of being phenomenal. Enjoy the top spot and if you want it to be someone else (Buehler!) hey, I get it.

 

• CHRIS SALE SAVE US PLEASE. I’LL MAKE YOU NUMBER ONE.

 

• The second tier has a collection of disappointments and surprise success stories. Yu Darvish falls as he spent all of July out of his groove, while Carlos Ródon has been sitting 94.5 mph in his last two starts (each resulting in just four innings pitched) after sitting ~96 mph for about two months. I’m a little worried there’s something wrong, but it’s too soon for a dramatic tumble.
• Kevin Gausman also hasn’t been at his best since being placed on personal leave. It very much seems like a blip on his marvelous 2021 than a full regression, but I have to knock him a peg for now.

 

• The third tier is a small one with three pitchers I personally adore. Nothing major to discuss here, though I wish Luis Castillo could settle in with his changeup for the long haul. He really hasn’t been consistent with the slow ball all season.
• I should also mention that I was ecstatic watching Sandy Alcántara execute close to a BSB against the Yankees, returning seven frames and ten strikeouts of zero run ball. It may be something, it may be just one day. But hey, it was cool as h*ck.

 

• Tier 4 is a long one, though there isn’t much change here. I lowered Lance McCullers as I’m not seeing someone locked in across his repertoire. I still adore him – he’s Top 20 y’all – but the path to his ceiling is tougher than those in Tier 3.
• Frankie Montas can’t be stopped as he keeps earning all the Gallows Pole and King Cole awards with his splitter and slider looking as good as ever. It’s so good to see him back in form.

 

• Returning to The List is Trevor Rogers, who shockingly hasn’t had a six-inning game since June 15th, albeit with an 11 day IL stint involved. He’s lost his AGA tag for now and hopefully returns it quickly in August.
• I lowered Shohei Ohtani a hair given his sore thumb and his irregular time in the rotation. Start him when he goes, of course.

 

• Now we’re in Tier 5, I should mention we had about three major names return to The List this week – Trevor Rogers, Carlos Carrasco, and Alek Manoah – creating plenty of innate red ranks for pitchers outside the Top 40. It’s not about the number ranking, it’s about the relative position.
• Moving part that, Alek Manoah jumps back in at #31 as he looked fantastic with his fastball/slider approach in his return from the IL. I do hope to see more of his changeup taking shape in the final nine weeks, but if he has that 1-2 punch working, he doesn’t even need it.

 

• The sixth tier is where Carlos Carrasco rests after finally making his season debut. There was a bit of rust to shake off in the Still ILL outing, but now that he’s securely in the rotation, he should be started with confidence.
• I know what you’re thinking. Maeda dropped 5?! But he’s been rolling! It’s a product of Manoah, Rogers, and Carrasco all returning from the IL + Zac Gallen and John Means looked plenty more like their real selves over the weekend. I’d trust them over Maeda, who is pitching well, but not as his peak.

 

• I’m a little scared about Yusei Kikuchi’s velocity drop in his most recent start, sitting 94/95 instead of the 96 mph we became accustomed to. I’d take the chance now, but monitor the situation.
• He stumbled a bit, but Sonny Gray looked plenty better in his recent start and could be on the mend. Let’s hope I’m forced to raise him further next week.

 

• Okay, let’s talk more about Freddy Peralta. The hardest part of what I do (by far) is guess innings and pitch counts. The Brewers have been incredibly mum about how they are handling Peralta (they might not even know) and after limiting him severely and indicating they were going to do so indefinitely, they let him go six frames across 68 pitches. Would he have gone six if he needed more pitches? Can we expect ~70 pitches a start now? I have no idea. So here he is, at #43 on The List with a massive shrug to go with it.

 

• I’m a bit scared of Framber Valdez’s lack of effective sinker as of late, but I think he can recover in the closing months. I elected to stick him with some questionable overperforming arms in Anthony DeSclafani and Adam Wainwright, who we are anticipating can keep it up, but it sure would surprise someone in March if they saw this list.
• The ultimate Cherry Bomb himself – Dylan Cease – lands in Tier 7 as he holds a ceiling above the ones below. Let’s hope he can find it and stay there.

 

• Tier 8 is when the cliff begins to appear on the horizon. I have my questions about Hyun Jin Ryu surviving the second half without his premier changeup and I’ll be keeping him around here until he finds it.
• Logan Webb and Tylor Megill should surprise many as they sit right inside the Top 50. Webb’s sinker/slider/change approach is working well and has made him a “start and forget” arm as of late, taking down the Dodgers and Astros. Megill has impressed with his changeup and even found strikes with his breakers, taking down Atlanta and Toronto recently. Let them fly.

 

• Don’t overlook Jordan Montgomery, who has been blossoming with his curveball and changeup over the last month or two. I still question if he’s able to be efficient enough to return 6+ innings with ease, but his secondaries set a strong foundation and he deserves your roster spot.

 

• Because we’re so close to the edge of must-holds in 12-teamers, Tier 9 is where the fun lies. Sure, we have boring arms that can help (or can they?) in Taijuan Walker, Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Gibson, and Zack Greinke, but in between are exciting players.
• Take Jesús Luzardo, for example. It’s not 100% confirmed that he’s starting today, but if it’s not today (he’s with the team and suited up), it’ll be later this week. The change of scenery and opportunity to pitch out of the gate makes him a great arm to grab now. Feel free to wait to see what he brings to the table, but I’d rather take the shot for a legit impact arm down the stretch vs. a standard Toby.

 

• I’ve been asked many questions about ranking the likes of Luis Patiño vs. Kyle Muller vs. Josiah Gray and the answer is all of them. Patiño had a fantastic outing against the Yankees and succeeded with heaters, something that could stick moving forward. Muller looks like he’s a lock in the Atlanta rotation and may take the next step with his command to feature a legit three-pitch mix. Then there’s JoJo, who has the nastiest repertoire of all three and is now getting a safe rotation spot in Washington. I can’t wait to see how they perform across the next nine weeks.
• I don’t want to overlook how consistent Jameson Taillon has been as of late. I don’t think the ceiling I saw in March will be realized this season, but he’s going deeper into games and helping teams across the board.

 

• Tier 10 has arrived and with it, The Cliff. Sorry Kwang Hyun Kim, Zach Plesac, and Marcus Stroman, the relative field has changed and there are plenty more intriguing options out there than there were a week ago. It doesn’t help that all three looked awfully mediocre in their last start, waning the confidence of managers everywhere.
• It was a bad day for Touki Toussaint and while he still has my attention, I don’t believe in the upside quite as much as the three youngins in Tier 9.

 

• I gave a massive boost to Joe Ross as he could rise the ranks and mimic the rise of Anthony DeSclafani over time. Let’s see if he can get back to his June self.
• Zach Thompson also shouldn’t be ignored, though he doesn’t carry the same ceiling as others. I dig his cutter/fastball/curve approach, though.

 

• Tier 11 starts with Tanner Houck who I adore and don’t want to rank anywhere close to here. He’s starting this week for a doubleheader against the Blue Jays, but then likely sent back to Triple-A as the Red Sox don’t currently have a rotation spot for him + Chris Sale’s return is imminent (save us). If I thought Houck would be starting every fifth day, I’d have him ranked around the late 40s or so.
• As I mentioned before with Freddy Peralta, I did not anticipate the Tigers to let Casey Mize go seven full innings out of nowhere. If he’s regularly starting again, I’d have Mize around Tier 9/10 and since we’re past The Cliff, you may as well take a chance on that.

 

• I’m excited to see what the Yankees can do with Andrew Heaney, though it may take a moment before they shift anything in his repertoire/approach, if at all. That said, the Yankees have thrown plenty more changeups this season and there’s a chance they push him to use his slow ball more often. I’m curious if they can pull him out of his Cherry Bomb funk by September and you’d be wise to monitor the situation. When it all works, Heaney can be filthy.
• Another guy to watch is Austin Gomber, who rose ten spots for his start last week where he leaned into his old approach for just 22% fastballs and succeeded. Yes, he floundered against the Padres for a terrible single inning (he is outside the Top 75!) and I’m wondering if that was just a bad day. He could get on track this week.

 

• I had to give major drops to Triston McKenzie and Adbert Alzolay this week. Both were interesting upside plays and both disappointed this week. McKenzie didn’t feature the BSB, Alzolay didn’t have his new cutter. There’s still upside in both and they could jump up next week, but for now, I’d trying something else.
• And sadly, there’s Blake Snell at the bottom of the tier as we all wait and wonder if he’ll get things sorted out in time for October. Sigh. One day it’ll return, I promise.

 

• Not much to report on from Tier 12. David Price has secured his rotation spot with Tony Gonsolin hitting the IL, but he did little to make us feel good about it over the weekend. I do think over time Price will mold into the role nicely, but remember, this isn’t 2017 Price. His ceiling isn’t what it used to be.
• Despite having a trio of successful outings, I’m worried about Madison Bumgarner as he’s been sitting sub 90 mph since his return from the IL. His early season success correlated with a 91/92 mph heater and until I see that pitch return, I’ll have my skepticism.

 

• It’s wild to me how Patrick Corbin was able to boost his velocity to 94 mph last week, yet he can’t put it all together and continues to struggle. It does feel as if he’s one small tweak away (doctors hate him) from achieving success again, but I wouldn’t recommend chasing that at the moment.
• Steven Matz has been a serviceable Toby to many this year and that -2 has nothing to do with him. In fact, he’s technically risen given how many names were added this week.

 

• Tier 13 is the final tier…for the most part, where you have decent streaming options and a few arms who have expressed something of interest moving forward. Mike Minor has raised his velocity a hair and has looked better as a result, for example. There could be something there.
• Joining The List are Daulton Jefferies, Cal Quantrill, and Vladimir Gutiérrez, who can all be considered a Toby for now. I like Jefferies the most of the crew, though, and he could jump up the ranks if he succeeds this week.

 

• Another addition is Reid Detmers, who had a rough MLB debut over the weekend. The 22-year-old is plenty better than the 6 ER will tell you, though, and if the Angels allow him to get his innings inside the rotation this year, he could blossom into a legit arm. Feel free to watch from afar for now.
• I had to give a massive drop to Dallas Keuchel, who just isn’t the contender for Spider-Man that we thought he was. He’s been relegated to “stream only” territory for now.

 

• Finally, there’s Tier 14, with two arms that could each be the intriguing #100 spot for this week. Michael Wacha featured a 1.5 mph uptick in his velocity and dominated the Yankees and I can’t help but wonder if it can stick moving forward.
• And lastly, there’s Braxton Garrett, who should return from the minors this week for the Marlins. I know, I’m not supposed to have him on here if he’s not confirmed, but I wanted to put him here as he could be a worthy option against the Mets on Tuesday.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Max ScherzerT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
3	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+6
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
5	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-2
6	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Yu Darvish T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
9	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
10	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
11	Sean Manaea	Aces Gonna Ace Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused	+3
12	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
13	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
14	Luis Castillo T3	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
15	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
16	Aaron Nola	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
17	Lance McCullers Jr. T4	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-2
18	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
19	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
20	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+3
21	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
22	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
23	Shohei Ohtani	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-3
24	Max Fried	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-2
25	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
26	Alex Wood T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-1
27	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
28	Luis García	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-4
29	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-1
30	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
31	Alek Manoah	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
32	Chris Bassitt T6	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
33	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+2
34	Carlos Carrasco	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
35	John Means	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	+1
36	Kenta Maeda	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-5
37	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-4
38	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+3
39	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-9
40	Framber Valdez T7	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-6
41	Anthony DeSclafani	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-4
42	Adam Wainwright	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-3
43	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	+20
44	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
45	Jon Gray T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
46	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
47	Hyun Jin Ryu	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
48	Wade Miley	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	-1
49	Logan Webb	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+12
50	Tylor Megill	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+12
51	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-
52	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	+13
53	Taijuan Walker T9	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
54	Kyle Hendricks	Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-5
55	Kyle Gibson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-2
56	Luis Patiño	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+21
57	Josiah Gray	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+17
58	Kyle Muller	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-
59	Jameson Taillon	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+8
60	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-18
61	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	+UR
62	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-16
63	Kwang Hyun Kim T10	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-15
64	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	-21
65	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-11
66	Zach Thompson	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
67	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-12
68	Touki Toussaint	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-8
69	Joe Ross	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+15
70	Tanner Houck T11	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-14
71	Daniel Lynch IV	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-2
72	Casey Mize	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+UR
73	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
74	Adbert Alzolay	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-17
75	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
76	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-17
77	Austin Gomber	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
78	Blake Snell	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Stash Option	-14
79	David Price T12	Low Ips Playing Time Question Stash Option	-11
80	Madison Bumgarner	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	-4
81	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Toby	-2
82	Michael Pineda	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
83	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	+2
84	Cole Irvin	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
85	Merrill Kelly	Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	+3
86	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	-8
87	Mike Minor T13	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
88	Chad Kuhl	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+3
89	Johnny Cueto	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+3
90	Tyler Anderson	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+3
91		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+UR
92	Daulton Jefferies	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
93	Ryan Yarbrough	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+1
94	Marco Gonzales	Toby Ratio Focused	+2
95	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-23
96	Cal Quantrill	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
97	Vladimir Gutierrez	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
98	Chris Flexen	Cherry Bomb Toby Ratio Focused	-8
99	Michael Wacha T14	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
100	Braxton Garrett	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)