The 2026 MLB season has been hard to understand in many ways. Outside of a few dominant teams, the league appears to be stuck in limbo, with playoff spots up for grabs for many teams with not much of a chance to compete for a title. As the All-Star festivities come to an end, it is time to look back at what we have seen while also taking a peek at the future, with the upcoming trade deadline and an uncertain offseason, where plenty of lawyers will dominate the discourse.
And while we all dream of a world without lawyers, it is time to appreciate what the 2026 season has given us. As part of a yearly tradition here at Pitcher List, we enlist the help of a legendary TV show to illustrate the state of each team. As we already did with folks from Scranton, wise guys from Jersey, and a show about nothing, now it is time to travel to Springfield, where Homer Simpson, his family, and an endless list of characters can help us summarize each team’s situation in a simple quote.
Using mostly scenes and moments from the show’s classic era, The Simpsons will explain the 2026 MLB season, starting with the National League. The Senior Circuit has been home to the best teams in baseball so far, and is bound to feature fierce playoff races, especially in the East and the Wild Card, while they all try to catch the mighty Dodgers, who have become kind of a General Sherman for the rest of the league. Stay tuned tomorrow for the AL version.
NL East
Atlanta – 55-40, +92 Run Differential, 90.7% playoff odds
After a stretch of six consecutive division titles and seven straight playoff appearances, which peaked with the 2021 championship, Atlanta was always seen as one of the smartes organizations in baseball. Even with a shocking 2025 that saw the team out of the playoffs, it was widely assumed that Atlanta would bounce back in 2026 with better health luck and positive regression. The concept of Atlanta being back played out, but there is danger lurking in the background. At one point, Atlanta was 10.5 games ahead in the East, looking unbeatable for most of April and May. A bad June (9-14) and a middling July so far have reduced that division lead to only two games, creating a situation in which Atlanta has to really fight to stay on top. Their top-heavy roster has produced star performances from the likes of Matt Olson, Chris Sale, and Michael Harris II, but the front office will need to be aggressive at the deadline and surround them with better talent. Otherwise, they could get stuck in the tar pits of the wild card race.
Philadelphia Phillies – 54-43, -10 Run Differential, 85.7% playoff odds
The past five years of Phillies baseball have been filled with exciting teams, playoff despair, and the notion that an aging roster would see its window close sooner than later. Having run back virtually the same roster as the team that lost a heartbreaking NLDS to the Dodgers, the organization knew that a slow start was not acceptable by any means, firing popular manager Rob Thomson after a brutal 9-19 mark. In his place, Don Mattingly took over as interim manager, somehow unlocking the true potential of this team with an impressive 45-24 record. Donnie Baseball, who is a Simpsons legend on his own, has led the Phillies to an MLB-best 19-6 tally in one-run games, and while Philly’s sluggers tend to catch plenty of hype, the pitching is what really defines this squad. The Phillies are the only team in baseball with three starting pitchers carrying at least 3.0 WAR, as the trio of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Jesús Luzardo should become a problem for any opponent in October. As the Phils have looked at times like the best team in the NL, Mattingly will try to guide them to their first pennant since… 2022, when Thomson took them to the World Series as a mid-season replacement.
Miami Marlins – 52-45, +24 Run Differential, 33.5% playoff odds
Trusting the Marlins has always been a fool’s errand, with their eccentric ways confounding the baseball world every year. With this in mind, we can at least give them credit for what they have done in 2026. After a promising 2025 in which they had a winning second half, including a victory in 9 of their last 12 games and ruining the Mets’ season on the final day, it became clear that Miami needed to trust its process for the new season. The gamble has paid off but it needed time, as the Marlins stumbled to a 26-34 record through May before literally posting the best month in franchise history with a 20-6 June. Their formula of no-name but supremely talented players in their 20s has worked wonders, with Otto Lopez becoming a dark-horse MVP candidate and Max Meyer leading the rotation with a 9-1 mark. The franchise’s modest approach to spending will likely avoid any major transactions at the deadline, instead hoping that this inexperienced but hungry roster can do enough to make a playoff run. Much like Bart aiming to suddenly become smart, the Marlins’ attempt to be a big spender has backfired, as offseason big-ticket closer Pete Fairbanks has been a flop, posting a 6.83 ERA under a $13 million salary, which is more than the combined salaries of Miami’s starting lineup.
Washington Nationals – 48-49, +7 Run Differential, 3.4% playoff odds
Having lost at least 90 games every season since 2021, it is refreshing to see the Nationals hovering around the .500 mark, even having an outside chance at the postseason. Luis García Jr., Jr., CJ Abrams, and James Wood have all surpassed 20 homers, with Wood in particular taking his game to a new level, as he leads the NL in runs, walks, OBP, OPS, and total bases. They have Nasim Nuñez leading the league in stolen bases, while nearly all of their core offensive pieces have clicked to the tune of an NL-leading 5.3 runs per game. At the same time, the pitching staff has almost been a polar opposite, with apologies to Foster Griffin and the occasional good start from Cade Cavalli. Washington has the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, with the bullpen’s 5.02 mark being the culprit for many lost leads. Just before the break, the Nats had three late leads against the Yankees, only to get swept at home due to three separate collapses. The Nationals have had 28 come-from-ahead losses, and lead the league with 34 games decided by at least 5 runs, which is not ideal for any contender. It’s a shame that such a fun, dynamic offense will probably not be a playoff participant, but at least the front office now has evidence that the youth movement is working. Now they only need to go out and buy some pitchers.
New York Mets – 40-57, -65 Run Differential, 0.8% playoff odds
In less than two seasons, the Mets have gone from a fun-loving team that nearly made the World Series, to a slow-burn disaster that blew a huge division lead, to now a full-blown fiasco. Despite revamping their roster with the departures of franchise icons like Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, while acquiring former Milwaukee stars like Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta, the Mets have spiralled into a season of multiple scandals, internal fighting, and the return of the LOLMets mantra. On the field, the team never recovered after an early Juan Soto IL stint that coincided with a 12-game losing streak, as their prized additions have turned into pumpkins. Soto eventually recovered and still produces his star-like numbers, but Bo Bichette has been a shell of his former self, while the likes of Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien have been predictably bad. The team’s lack of identity and cohesiveness led to the firing of manager Carlos Mendoza, while we have gotten legendary quotes in the press, pure comedy on the field, and a fan base that can do nothing more than hope for better days. At least we get the chance of having their amazing broadcast booth to narrate this shipwreck, which is an art form on its own.
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers – 59-37, +126 Run Differantial, 98.2% playoff odds
Heading into the second half with the second-best record in MLB, it is fair to say that we shall never doubt the Milwaukee Brewers ever again. The organization recovered from another tough playoff exit and the loss of their longtime ace and has separated itself from the pack in the most competitive division in the NL, where everyone had a winning record at one point. As usual, the Brewers have done it by maximizing the things they do well and not being concerned by league trends, as evidenced by their top-5 scoring offense despite having the lowest homer total in the NL. The offense has clear stars in Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio, while their complementary pieces follow their philosophy to a T: getting on base and hitting with runners in scoring position, as Milwaukee rides a top-5 unit in terms of walks, doubles, and OBP to stay competitive in every game. Of course, having the NL Cy Young frontrunner could be the missing piece for a team that needs to finally break through in October. Jacob Misiorowski has so much black ink in his Baseball Reference page that it looks like a misprint, and he represents the biggest hope for a team that is almost guaranteed their eighth playoff trip in nine years. It is hard to explain the Brewers organization and how they prepare their players… it is just that they are so neat.
Chicago Cubs – 54-42, +52 Run Differential, 76.3% playoff odds
In a season defined by the middle class, the Cubs have decided to represent the extremes. A couple of ten-game winning streaks within a month propelled them to first place in the Central for a few days, only to quickly be derailed by a ten-game losing streak. They have scored 10+ runs in ten games, while also taking losses with scores like 18-3 and 17-1. This Hank Scorpio-like level of unpredictability has created a sense of excitement and dread around Wrigley Field, as the Cubs are in a good position despite several setbacks and having to use a makeshift rotation. Offseason prize Alex Bregman has disappointed with a .696 OPS, but that has been negated by a supernova season from Pete Crow-Armstrong and the steady contributions of veterans like Ian Happ, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki, as Chicago is a top-10 offense in several major categories. The many injuries to the rotation have led the Cubs to use 12 different starters, with no clear ace, but we are seeing why manager Craig Counsell gets paid as much as he does, mixing and matching as much as possible to coax out wins out of thin air. With the playoffs ahead, the front office is certain to try to turn this crisis into an opportunity and add as much pitching as possible. While most NL teams have a clear identity at this point, the high-variance nature of these Cubs should make them one of the most interesting teams of the second half.
St. Louis Cardinals – 50-45, +6 Run Differential, 31.8% playoff odds
After being the class of the Central for decades, the St. Louis Cardinals had committed the cardinal sin of becoming a boring franchise, with three straight seasons in which they hovered around .500 with no apparent plan. That changed by the end of 2025, when the front office underwent a significant makeover, along with a commitment to trust the youth. The addition of an exciting rookie in J.J. Wetherholt along with solid numbers from several hitters in their twenties have started to bring back casual Cardinals fans to the stands, while the hardcore, self-named best fans in baseball can finally appreciate an exciting St. Louis team. The Cardinals are not a finished product by any means, but they have exceeded preseason expectations, with an outside shot of making the postseason if many things break right. The NL Central’s strong year should be a good excuse for the new front office to invest in complementary pieces, as it is clear that the Cardinals do not excel in any particular skill, but rather have raised their floor while having a few star-like pieces. As confirmation of the positive momentum for the franchise, Jordan Walker just became an improbable Home Run Derby winner, making more money in one night than his whole salary for 2026.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 50-47, +44 Run Differential, 41.8% playoff odds
After their last playoff appearance in 2015, the Pirates had operated under a penny-pinching premise without much of a purpose, having only one winning season and always being far from contention. The quest to be cheap became unforgivable when other similar low-budget teams have been able to produce contending seasons, and the Pirates fan base became even more vocal in their distrust when the franchise refused to take advantage after drafting a generational pitcher in Paul Skenes. And so, for the first time ever, Pirates ownership greenlit an Opening-Day payroll over $100 million, bringing in free agent hitters that could make a difference. The additions of AL East veterans Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have been key to propel Pittsburgh to the top of several offensive stats, including runs per game and OPS. In a cruel twist of fate, the pitching has not been up to speed with the offense, as even Skenes has looked mortal through several stretches. Nevertheless, it is clear that the mere idea of investing into the team was positive, and could still open up a new era of Pirates baseball. With what amounts to a coin-flip chance of playing in October, the front office can still go one step beyond and find reinforcements at the deadline, especially as the Pirates are slated to face a soft schedule for most of September. After years of looking like this particular pirate, there is clear hope for better days ahead.
Cincinnati Reds – 43-52, -60 Run Differential, 1.0% playoff odds
After barely making the playoffs via the last wild card spot in 2025, there were reasons to be optimistic about the Cincinnati Reds, especially under the guidance of Terry Francona. A strong start and the explosive bats of Sal Stewart, Elly de la Cruz, and J.J. Bleday looked like building blocks, but there were also plenty of warning signs, like giving Ke’Bryan Hayes plenty of chances despite a .422 OPS, or the Hunter Greene extended IL stint that limited the rotation’s ceiling. In the end, a 19-34 stretch in May and June erased most playoff hopes for the team. While Greene has finally returned and should add some solid starts, the defining element for the Reds in 2026 has been the star turn of Chase Burns (or Boo-urns). Burns went into the break with an 11-1 mark, a 2.54 ERA, and a 10.34 K/9. The Reds have gone a staggering 14-4 in his starts, and he would be a leading candidate for the Cy Young if not for the accomplishments of a certain division foe in Milwaukee. While there will not be much to play for in terms of the postseason, the Reds can at least become a significant spoiler with their 1-2 punch atop the rotation.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers – 61-36, +149 Run Differantial, 100% playoff odds
If we made a list of everything that has gone wrong for the Dodgers in 2026, it would seem that their season has been awful, awful. Their top two free agent additions have been complete duds, with Kyle Tucker getting $60 million to hit only seven homers, while Edwin Díaz is getting paid $23 million but pitched only six innings before joining the IL and being mentioned in a bizarre cockfighting scandal. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell have combined for eight start but currently reside on the 60-day IL, while Roki Sasaki continues to be a healthy disaster. Will Smith is also on the IL, while Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández have also dealt with injuries. Even Shohei Ohtani’s foray into full two-way play has had its hiccups, with Ohtani going through some rough offensive stretches. And yet, all that negativity has been rendered moot by the organization’s unmatched depth, as the Dodgers have the best record in baseball and look as good as ever in their quest for three straight titles. This is where the power of their seemingly unlimited money comes to light, as they are able to withstand almost any setback and patch it with quality players. The emergence of Andy Pages as the team’s second-best hitter while Justin Wrobleski’s ace-like performances of late have LA in their usual spot at the top. While they closed their first half with a shocking home sweep against Arizona, it became the first three-game losing streak for the Dodgers since May 13. As they usually do, be prepared for plenty of LA involvement in the trade market, where a potential Tarik Skubal acquisition could lead the rest of the league to rage-quit collectively.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 49-47, -13 Run Differential, 24.6% playoff odds
Remember when Ildemaro Vargas was the best hitter on the planet? At one point in early May, the 34-year-old veteran had a 24-game hitting streak, riding an average close to .350 as all fantasy pundits suggested you add him to your roster as soon as possible. That improbable streak may have been the high point for Arizona in 2026, as the organization appears to be stuck in the same limbo of not being good enough, but also not being bad at all. As Vargas cooled off, the Dbacks settled into a predictable rhythm of alternating wins and losses with no real direction, as evidenced by their 33-33 mark since May. Corbin Carroll is still great, Geraldo Perdomo has not slowed down after his miraculous 2025, and Eduardo Rodriguez has somehow found the fountain of youth, but the team’s inconsistency and lack of a proper supporting cast are leading up to another meh season. Unless Arizona’s front office chooses to be aggressive and add at least one more impact bat and a quality starting pitcher, the playoffs are a long shot, unlike the fourth straight finish between 80 and 89 wins, where an overhaul becomes ever more unlikely.
San Diego Padres – 48-48, -43 Run Differential, 11.7% playoff odds
For a while, it looked like the Padres had found a formula to squeak out wins despite a low-power offense, as their superior bullpen would be able to close out any late advantage. San Diego was 16-7 at one point, and held a division lead with a victory against LA in mid-May, until the wheels started falling off. A 19-30 mark since that fateful 1-0 win over the Dodgers has exposed the many flaws of this roster construction, as the Padres have gotten old in a hurry, while their young stars stagnated in dramatic fashion. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jr. and Jackson Merrill have combined for 15 homers in 808 plate appearances, while Manny Machado’s all-or-nothing approach has yielded 19 long balls, but with virtually no other source of value. The Padres are dead last in runs per game and OPS, and by a significant margin, leading many to wonder if they would be willing to trade Mason Miller, as having a closer of that caliber becomes an unnecessary luxury. With a return to the playoffs looking like a remote outcome, it is fair to say that the coveted window of contention of this franchise has been closed in unceremonious fashion, far from the fiery attitude and full Petco Park crowds that once threatened to challenge the Dodgers. San Diego once had a chance and went all-in, but this sport is merciless sometimes.
San Francisco Giants – 41-55, -64 Run Differential, 0.6% playoff odds
Following years of mediocrity and flirting with .500, the San Francisco Giants were pretty vocal in their desire to put an end to that discourse and become a true contender. The problem with that is new POBO Buster Posey backed those words with an uninspiring array of free agent signings, crying poor in a franchise that is usually among the highest revenue producers in MLB. The duo of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser has combined for a 4-14 record and a 5.12 ERA, while the bullpen has been an abject disaster, blowing many late leads and failing to name one established closer. The top-heavy nature of the roster has yielded some positive results, as Luis Arraez (the one good free agent signing) has rediscovered his hitting magic wand while also being a net positive on defense, while Logan Webb and Robbie Ray add at least some credibility at the top of the rotation. San Francisco has become so befuddling that they still own a positive record against the Dodgers and Atlanta, but are the only team in baseball without one four-game winning streak. Every good win has been followed by a horrible loss or three, while the team has been embroiled in some notorious scandals off the field, as the college-to-pros hiring of manager Tony Vitello has backfired in almost every way. On the other hand, Posey and the front office have at least stabilized the minor league system, giving the Giants several top-100 prospects, along with the first real MLB taste for players like Bryce Eldridge and the surprise super-utility play of Casey Schmitt. As the deadline approaches, it is likely that the Giants will try to unload as many veterans as possible, and while the future is bright, Giants fans still have to endure the depressing nature of watching this team in 2026.
Colorado Rockies – 39-59, -89 Run Differential, 0.0% playoff odds
Through 98 games in 2025, the Rockies were a staggering 24-74, and that was after a modest two-game winning streak. The fact that a 39-59 mark is seen as a massive improvement speaks volumes to where the organization stood only a year ago, as they were not only ridiculed on the field on a daily basis, but also a case study for how not to run a club. As they barely avoided the ignominy of 120+ losses, ownership had no choice but to finally look for outside help, even if the choice to add Peter Brand Paul DePodesta was not exactly met with praise in several baseball circles. The new front office regime knew it would need years to reconstruct this mess, but year one has been so promising in so many ways that Rockies brass should be wondering why it took them so long to make an earnest effort to rebuild. The simple goal of using nothing but young players on offense has yielded promising results, as the likes of Kyle Karros, Hunter Goodman, and Jake McCarthy look like legitimate pieces to build around. The pitching, as usual, is another matter, with the Rockies still having the worst ERA in the game, but even respectable baseball is a step in the right direction for a franchise that averaged 108 losses over the past three seasons. It may be the worst division to try and compete, but it all looks like eventually there will be hope for the Rockies.
