Tier 15 (continued)
151. Jarred Kelenic (OF, ATL) –A surprise trade lands Kelenic in Atlanta, a team who just got more out of Olson, Ozuna, and Rosario than I ever thought possible at this point, so it’s safe to say things are looking up for the maligned outfielder. Kelenic never found his groove with the Mariners in the majors due to strikeout issues, but he continued to rake every time he went back to Triple-A. At his prospect peak, Kelenic was viewed as a perennial 20-20 threat who could also hit for average. Atlanta is likely to start Kelenic in a platoon due to their crowded roster and Kelenic’s spotty history against southpaws, but if you want to throw a high-upside dart later in the draft, Kelenic’s upside is as high as anyone’s.
152. J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA) – Crawford’s 19 home runs were more than he had in the prior three seasons combined (covering 358 games) and the most compelling narrative relates to changes he made over the offseason with Driveline. Crawford did manage to get the ball in the air more and did pull the ball more in 2023 than in any other season as a Mariner, and the elevated walk rate helped him score 94 runs. Crawford should be the primary leadoff man again in 2024, and even if the power takes a bit of a step back, the floor is extremely high thanks to his ability to make contact and take walks. This isn’t a big upside play, but he’s easily the safest bet in this entire tier.
153. Eugenio Suárez (3B, ARI) – Suárez is no longer the lock for 30 home runs he was from 2018-2022, but assuming the D-Backs intend to deploy Suárez in the middle of their lineup, then he should still drive in 80-90 runners even if the home run total is closer to 20 than it is to 30 despite the ugly batting average.
154. Max Kepler (OF, MIN) – Kepler is tough to appreciate in 12-teamers as he lives right around the replacement level most of the time, but his second half in 2023 certainly caught my attention as he put up a .926 OPS with a .306 batting average. Kepler has been unable to handle left-handed pitching for most of his career, though.
155. Tommy Pham (OF, FA) – The veteran outfielder is coming off his most productive season since 2023 as he looks to find work with what could be his fifth team in three seasons. It’s difficult to pinpoint specific reasons for his improved stat line other than the new stolen base environment, and it’s not easy to think of a team that’s going to be willing to give a 36-year-old free agent a chance to bat cleanup like they did in Arizona last season, but Pham could work his way to 15 home runs and 15 steals if given an everyday opportunity.
156. Bryan De La Cruz (OF, MIA) – De La Cruz was a boring yet reliable back-end outfielder last season, finishing just inside the top 50 at the position thanks to his 78 RBI and high volume. If De La Cruz can stay in the top five or six spots in the order, we should see something like a repeat of his 2023 line, though the counting stats may take a step back as he’s not likely to get 41 games hitting third unless a few injuries pop up.
157. Brandon Lowe (2B, TBR) – Lowe has the pop to hit 30 home runs, but injuries, inconsistency, and platoon splits continue to hold him back. If you’re desperate for power late in the draft, Lowe is a gamble worth considering, but at this point, it’s just a gamble.
158. Brendan Donovan (2B/OF, STL) – Remember the stuff I said about McNeil? That all applies to Donovan except for the fact that Donovan has missed almost half of 2023 with an elbow injury and also is at risk of landing on the large side of a platoon if he continues to slug under .300 against left-handed pitching. He should provide solid ratios against righties with double-digit home run power and a little bit of speed, but there’s a lot of playing time risk that comes with it.
159. Parker Meadows (OF, DET) – Meadows’ 22 home runs and 27 stolen bases across the majors and minors last season were exciting, particularly for action-starved Tigers fans like myself, but Meadows’ hit tool will likely limit his contributions to something closer to 15 in each category, assuming he gets a full season of plate appearances. His willingness to take a walk should give him a leg up on the leadoff spot in Detroit, so if Meadows continues to walk more than 10% of the time and keeps that strikeout rate around 25% or lower, he could provide 80 runs and sneak his way into the top 150 hitters.
160. Kris Bryant (OF, COL) – Over his first 32 games, Bryant hit .300/.387/.467 with five home runs and things looked like they’d finally work out for him in Colorado. Unfortunately, nothing went right for Bryant after that as he had two IL stints that lasted over a month each and posted a pitiful 40 wRC+ in the games he did play in over the rest of the season. Entering his third year of a seven-year deal, Bryant has only appeared in 122 games, but the first chunk of 2023 combined with his short yet strong 2022 still leaves a tiny morsel of hope that he could be a top 40 outfielder, though it comes with huge injury and performance risk.
Tier 16
161. Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) – There might not be another prospect in baseball with more hype than Wyatt Langford. Langford dominated professional pitching after being drafted by the Rangers in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft. Langford looks like the complete package and is already banging on the door of the major leagues. The reason he ranks in Tier 17 on this list is that the Rangers do not have a clear opening for him on their roster. Evan Carter, Leody Tavares, and Adolis García profile to be the Opening Day starters for Texas making it likely Langford will start in Triple-A. Langford also only has 44 professional games under his belt.
Here is what Steve concluded about Langford from our composite article:
“Langford projects as a power-over-hit prospect with good speed but has shown that all can be elite tools. To avoid projecting Langford as a top 10 MLB player, I would expect 30 home runs, and 15-20 steals with a .270 average as he begins his career. These numbers still put Langford at the top of the league and will be a fun kid to watch paired with Evan Carter in the Rangers outfield.”
162. Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY) – Stanton hits the ball unbelievably hard and misses a lot of games. It was true before, and it’s true now. The only real change in his game is that between the strikeouts, the fly-ball-heavy approach, and the loss of speed, Stanton is an extreme drag on your batting average and OBP. He only needs about 110 games to hit 30 home runs, but even getting that many will take some luck.
163. Mitch Garver (C, SEA) – Health has been an issue for Garver for several seasons, but his career .252/.342/.483 line highlights the upside he brings when healthy. Health should come a bit easier for Garver as the primary DH in Seattle, and if he plays in 120 games (his current single-season high is 103 set in 2018), he should hit something like 22-25 home runs with 75 or more RBI. I like Garver as a last-round dice roll in shallow single-catcher leagues, though folks in two-catcher formats may look for a safer option.
164. Kyle Manzardo (1B, CLE) – Manzardo appeared to be one of the more polished minor league batters heading into the 2023 season. Injuries, personal issues, and bad luck led to some struggles and ultimately resulted in him being traded to Cleveland. Manzardo still utilizes a mature approach at the plate with a plus-hit tool and plus-power. Landing in Cleveland provides Manzardo with a much clearer path to playing time which should come as early as Opening Day. Manzardo has quickly turned into an underrated dynasty asset and is being overlooked for redraft leagues as well.
Here is what Steve wrote about Manzardo back in November:
“Manzardo looked to turn things around when he was traded to the Guardians and continued to get reps in the Arizona Fall League. Mazardo has looked closer to his old form, hitting five home runs in the AFL but still has yet to see his average creep back up to his 2022 season. A .269 BABIP for Tampa and .233 for Cleveland in 2023 may be the reason for this and Manzardo is still a top first base prospect.”
165. Ryan McMahon (2B/3B, COL) – While McMahon’s 2023 seems productive on the surface, a huge amount of his production came over a 50-game hot streak over the summer where he hit .299/.388/.540 with 60 combined runs and RBI and 10 home runs. Before the streak, McMahon had a pedestrian .675 OPS, and afterward, he had a .672 OPS. That’s 50 games of good production and 102 games of sandbagging your stats. Throw in a rising strikeout rate and a horrible offense around him, and you have a player who can contribute to your counting stats when he’s at home and who should otherwise be on the wire.
166. Brendan Rodgers (2B, COL) – The third pick of the 2015 draft hasn’t quite lived up to what was expected, but his blend of hit tool and power has me coming back to the well one last time in deep drafts to see if he can put together a 17-20 home run season with a .275 batting average. It’s not impossible as he’s only 27 years old and will have every opportunity to be a key player for the Rockies, but it gets less likely by the season.
167. Sal Frelick (OF, MIL) – Frelick doesn’t have much in the way of power (his career single-season high is 11 home runs across three levels in 2022), which makes the fact that the Brewers hit him fourth so often in 2023 quite the surprise. Milwaukee’s relatively thin roster means Frelick is currently slated as the third or fourth hitter in this lineup heading into 2024 behind Yelich and Contreras, and if that holds then Frelick could be a candidate to drive in 80 runners with double-digit home runs and stolen bases. He’s likely not much more than barely above replacement level in 12-teamers, but those in deeper leagues or points leagues may get more mileage out of his low strikeout rates and ability to put the ball in play.
168. Brent Rooker (OF, OAK) – Rooker was a home run machine at the beginning and end of the season, but in between those outbursts was a brutal 69-game stretch where he struck out in 35.2% of his plate appearances and slugged just .358. Rooker struggled to make good swing decisions with two strikes on him, and his poor zone contact skills suggest this kind of volatility will continue to be part of his game. The home run total may very well be over 30 in 2024, but you’ll probably only want to roster him for about 50-60% of his plate appearances to get maximum value.
169. Henry Davis (OF, PIT) – He’s not catcher-eligible during your draft, but Davis should get the position eligibility back within the first few weeks of the season (as early as the second week in Yahoo leagues), and his 20 home run power upside isn’t the worst thing in the world to gamble on. I would be surprised if a healthy Davis fell short of 130 games played between catcher, DH, and outfield, and that kind of playing time should help Davis be a streamable catcher in most formats, and even a viable second catcher in leagues that require two. That being said, Davis is known as a defensive liability behind the plate, and if Pittsburgh decides to go in a different direction for improved defense, then Davis could be in trouble of becoming merely a platoon outfielder on a sketchy offense.
170. Leody Taveras (OF, TEX) – Tavares should find a way to get to 15 home runs and 15 steals in 2024 if he stays healthy as he fell only just short of those marks in 2023. I don’t think there’s much upside for more than that and Tavares is likely to stay buried at the bottom of the Texas lineup, so as long as your counting stat expectations are low, you won’t be disappointed.
171. Wilmer Flores (1B/3B, SFG) –2023 was arguably the best season of Flores’ career and he enters 2024 as the number four hitter in the lineup and everyday DH. Free agents could muddle things up a bit depending on their skill set, but look for Flores to roughly 20 home runs with decent counting stats and a batting average around .260-.270.
172. Zach Neto (SS, LAA) – Neto ran into serious trouble during his debut in 2023 and saw his contact ability decline sharply throughout his season. Assuming he can figure out how to make more contact, Neto could be the leadoff guy for the Angels and hit 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases with a .250-.260 average, but fixing contact issues is not a simple endeavor.
173. Austin Hays (OF, BAL) – It’s unlikely that there’s another level to his game, and most of his value comes from hitting fifth and playing a lot. The primary issue with Hays is that when he’s bad, he’s exceptionally bad, such as the 24-game stretch shortly after the All-Star Break where he hit .172/.215/.241.
174. Junior Caminero (3B, TBR) – If this was a list based solely on prospect potential, Caminero would much rank higher than this. That being said, he is part of a Rays team that rarely hands over full-time roles to unproven players. Caminero profiles better as a third baseman, a spot that is currently occupied by Isaac Paredes. The Rays will undoubtedly find ways to get Caminero’s bat into the lineup, but a high ground ball rate could become problematic at the major league level. Caminero’s raw power gives him plenty of potential and fantasy upside. He is a valuable prospect to target in redraft leagues.
Here is what Matt concluded about Caminero back in November:
“Caminero has as much upside as anybody on this list. He has massive power and is still years younger than many of the names likely to debut. He should get consistent run as an everyday player in 2024. There are some concerns, but he has the upside to be a difference-maker.”
175. Jordan Westburg (2B/3B, BAL) – Westburg could hit 20 home runs in a full season in the majors with workable ratios and counting stats; however, Baltimore isn’t likely to give him that many plate appearances unless there’s an injury or trade that clears up more room on their roster. Between Henderson being the man at third and youngster Connor Norby banging on the door to the majors, it’s hard to see Westburg getting more than 120 games in 2024, but if he does, he can be a solid piece to the back end of a fantasy roster.
176. José Abreu (1B, HOU) – I never really bought into Abreu in 2023 due to his lackluster 2022, but if the 37-year-old first baseman can find a path back to even a .250 batting average, he’s a threat to drive in 100 runners in the heart of the Houston lineup.
177. Gavin Lux (2B/OF, LAD) – Lux missed all of 2023 with a knee injury he suffered shortly before the start of the season, but returns in 2024 with the keys to the starting shortstop job. Once a top-five prospect, our expectations for Lux have fallen dramatically after 273 very average games (for fantasy purposes) to start his career. I suppose you can see 15 home runs and 10 steals if you squint a bit, but Lux’s only bankable value comes from his strong plate discipline which should lead to a .270 batting average and .350 OBP.
178. Andrew Benintendi (OF, CWS) – Two straight seasons of hitting just five home runs suggests the power outage is here to stay, but expect the White Sox to keep Benintendi at the top of the lineup in 2024, giving him a chance to score 70 runs or so and steal 10-15 bases with a decent batting average. He won’t provide anything else that’s helpful, but at least it ain’t nothing.
179. Anthony Rizzo (1B, NYY) – Rizzo folded after a hot start, slashing just .172/.271/.225 over the last 46 games he played before hitting the IL with a concussion. He was so bad that it was easy to forget that Rizzo had 11 home runs and a .305 batting average at the end of May, and there’s still a distinct likelihood that Rizzo starts the season as the number four hitter behind Judge and Soto. A return to the 30 home runs he hit in 2022 as a Yankee would easily get Rizzo to 100 RBI, but he’ll need to find health and consistency that just wasn’t there last season.
Tier 17
180. Jung Hoo Lee (OF, SFG) – Lee has excellent contact skills that should help ease his transition to state-side professional baseball. He is locked into a regular role on the Giants which gives him obvious value for 2024. San Francisco does not profile as an ideal home ballpark for his power metrics, but fantasy managers can count on him posting a valuable batting average in 2024.
Lee was not included in the composite write-up from November, but Jake Maish wrote an excellent piece detailing his dynasty value which you can check out here.
181. Luis Rengifo (2B/3B/SS/OF, LAA) – The super-utilityman Rengifo started walking a lot more than he had in 2021 and 2022, but other than that, it’s hard to imagine him being more than the 16-18 home run hitter with decent ratios that he’s been for the last two seasons. You’ll probably pick up Rengifo at various points in the season when dealing with injuries or when he’s heating up, but you don’t need to draft him in a format that includes a waiver wire.
182. Nelson Velázquez (OF, KCR) – Velázquez made waves once he was traded to the Royals, hitting 14 home runs in 40 games, though it came with a 29.3% strikeout rate and a .233 batting average. That more or less tracks with what we expected of him as a prospect, making him a lower batting average guy with a 25-30 home run upside. Some power hitters can get by with a low-walk approach (like his teammate Salvador Perez), but he’ll likely need to cut the strikeout rates to find any real consistency.
183. James Outman (OF, LAD) – Outman’s poor zone contact numbers early in the season led to an ugly slump that saw him hit the waiver wire in most standard leagues, but there were signs of optimism late in the season as he steadily improved his contact ability. Fastballs, in particular, were a huge weakness for Outman when it came to contact despite the fact he was excellent at making the correct swing decisions against them. On the bright side, Outman did get better at connecting with fastballs, and more growth could certainly happen.
Whiffing on strikes is a big red flag to me, as that can be more indicative of a talent problem than a mental problem, Outman’s power does present enough upside to keep me intrigued for 2024, just not as one of my first three outfielders.
184. Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF, MIN) – Kirilloff’s hit tool and power could make him a valuable first baseman or outfielder in fantasy, but the injuries have never stopped piling up, allowing other players to get a chance to steal his spot in the lineup. If given the chance to play 120-140 games, Kirilloff could provide a .270 batting average with 17-19 home runs and decent RBI totals, but between a roster logjam and ever-present injury concerns, it’s hard to imagine Kirilloff getting that chance.
185. Mark Canha (OF, DET) –The upside is limited for the 34-year-old southpaw, but Canha is still an elite decision-maker who should play 140 games while batting somewhere in the first five spots in the lineup for a major league lineup. Double-digit home runs should be there, and he did steal 11 bases in 2023. I think the Tigers offense will be better than projections are suggesting, so don’t be shocked if Canha also finds a way to drive in 75 runners.
186. Orlando Arcia (SS, ATL) – Arcia finished as a top-20 shortstop in 2023 thanks to, well, playing in 139 games for Atlanta. He was actually on track to finish inside the top 15 or so until a putrid September knocked him down a few pegs (just a 54 wRC+ that month). Arcia didn’t do anything out of the ordinary or outside of his ability (though he had some luck in his batting average that I expect to fade away) and his glove is good enough that he should be able to stay in the lineup unless his bat falls apart.
187. Ty France (1B, SEA) – While France is still a useful source of plate appearances and counting stats due to getting over 600 plate appearances for three straight seasons, the upside is limited due to modest power and a complete lack of speed. A return to 20 home runs isn’t out of the question, but questions about the Mariners’ ability to score runs consistently could put a damper on France’s counting stat accumulation. He’s a high-floor player in deeper leagues and will have stretches of high production due to his durability and lineup spot, but those in 12-team leagues will often be left wanting more.
188. Luis Garcia (2B, WSH) – García’s skillset is best deployed in points leagues as he makes a ton of contact and rarely strikes out. A full healthy season should give us around 15 home runs and 10 steals with a .275 batting average, though Garcia has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons.
189. Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) – Traded back in 2021 for Javier Báez, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s athletic abilities have been on full display. He is a talented defender which should give him a bit of grace as his bat develops at the major league level. His debut last season did not go well as he went hitless in 19 plate appearances. His 20 home runs and 37 stolen bases in the minor leagues speak to his upside as a fantasy asset. The concerns over his hit tool prevent PCA from ranking higher on this list.
PCA was not included in the consensus write-up from November, but he did rank as the Cubs’ top prospect in our rankings from July which you can check out here.
190. Amed Rosario (2B/SS, FA) – No matter where Rosario ends up, a .270 batting average and 10-12 home runs with 15 steals will likely follow. If that lands at the bottom of a team’s batting order, it’s replacement-level stuff that you can leave on the wire most of the time in a 12-teamer. If it finds its way near the top of the order, that’s a different conversation.
191. Maikel Garcia (3B, KCR) – Does five to seven home runs and 25 stolen bases with average ratios excite you? Then Garcia is your man. That’s extremely replaceable in most 12-team formats, but those in 15-team leagues will likely have Garcia much higher on your boards.
192. Danny Jansen (C, TOR) – Jansen has at least 15 home runs in two straight part-time seasons, though the batting average and walk rates returned to his lower career norms in 2023. The signing of Turner clogs up the DH spot that I previously assumed would be filled by Kirk and Jansen on their off days, so the playing time projection takes a hit. He should still play enough to be a top-12 to top-15 catcher, but I am not as rosy on Jansen’s upside as most projections.
193. Jose Siri (OF, TBR) – Injuries and roster shuffling will keep his total plate appearances down, but Siri has an elite combination of power and speed that will be relevant to us at various points in the season. He strikes out way too much and goes through long cold spells multiple times a season, but Siri is always worth keeping on your watch list when you require home runs or steals and don’t care about the ratios.
194. Luis Campusano (C, SDP) – Campusano was excellent in his 49 games in 2023, hitting .319/.356/.491 with seven home runs and just a 12.1% strikeout rate. Campusano has the power and plate skills to be a top-12 catcher, but being a young catcher is tough both mentally and physically and it’s hard to say exactly how many counting stats he can pile up in the bottom half of the extremely top-heavy Padres lineup.
195. Alek Thomas (OF, ARI) – There still could be 15 home runs and 15 steals in Thomas’s future, but it’s locked behind a career 56.8% groundball rate in the majors that wasn’t much better in the minors. Players can and do fix this issue, but it’s not easy nor common for the change to stick long-term.
196. Jakob Marsee (OF, SDP) – Marsee has the opportunity to earn the starting center field job in Spring Training this year. He put together an impressive first full season of professional baseball hitting 16 home runs with 46 stolen bases. There are questions over how well his power will translate to the major league level, but there is OBP and stolen base upside apparent. He should find himself in San Diego at some point during the first half and be a valuable fantasy asset once he arrives.
Here is what Matt wrote about Marsee back in November:
“Marsee is still incredibly underrated. The biggest question mark is his power, but a .280 hitter, who walks 12% of the time and can steal 35 bases only needs to hit about 15 home runs to be fantasy-relevant. His advanced approach makes him one of the safer prospects to target and there is a strong chance we see him debut in 2024.”
197. Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT) – If your league has swagger as a category, move Cutch up several tiers. Few players in baseball are as fun to root for as McCutchen, and while he doesn’t have the speed or power he did in his prime, his elite decision-making skills and a chance to play almost every day in the heart of a lineup means there are a lot of ways Cutch finishes in the top-175 hitters, if not the top-150.
198. Joey Meneses (UT, WAS) – Meneses provided solid batting average and counting stats in his first full season in the majors, but the 13 home runs were as many as he had hit in just 56 games in 2022. Meneses hits a lot of ground balls and also pops out quite a bit, so I’m not comfortable projecting more than 15 or so in 2024.
199. Bo Naylor (C, CLE) – The younger Naylor enters 2024 as the starting catcher for Cleveland, and while he was inconsistent in his 2023 debut, there’s enough power upside to see a path to 20 home runs and five to seven stolen bases. His high walk rate makes him a lot more viable in OBP leagues, but those in standard leagues who decided to wait until the last pick on a catcher might as well throw a dart on Naylor’s upside.
200. Yoán Moncada (3B, CWS) – Moncada has all but stopped walking over the last two seasons, he hasn’t played in at least 105 games in a season since 2021, and his only season slugging better than .430 was in 2019 (when it seemed like everyone slugged at least .400). If there’s any hope that Moncada can return to being a guy with close to 20 home runs and 130-140 combined runs and RBI, it comes from Moncada staying healthy. He’s mentioned that leg and back issues that plagued him the last two seasons have faded away, so those in deep formats needing a guy with plenty of playing time and maybe a hint of upside can take a gamble on Moncada, I guess.