Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2024: 151-200 SPs

Welcome to the Top 400 Starting Pitchers For 2024 Fantasy Baseball. This is an update to my Top 200 Starting Pitchers For 2024 from October last year.

After shoving all my strategies and write-ups of all 400 players + something close to 300 videos into one article, I quickly found out it crashed phones and browsers, and I felt like an idiot. I’m so sorry everyone, I really should have just done these individually spliced articles first.

Here’s what we’ve done:

• All ranks are now spliced into groups of 20, 25, and 50
• Rankings Philosophy article to read separately
• Left the main up for those who can handle it

Please read the Rankings Philosophy article before reading the rankings. I cannot express enough how it outlines my thoughts on drafting in 12-teamers and why I have ranked these players as I have.

Thanks for your passion and enthusiasm for this article – it pushes me more every year, and I already have new ideas for next year to make this easier a better presentation for all of you.

AGA,

-Nick

 

Tier 16 – Volume is Volume (Cont’d)

Oh look, you have a job and you can actually give me some value sometimes. Also, if you haven’t already, it’s wise to start ignoring that actual ranks now. I’m going through and grouping mostly and if you disagree with a grouping, let alone a few numer ranks, I get it. It gets much harder to properly rank when the expectations for everyone are so low.

 

151. Keaton Winn (SFG, RHP)

At the time of this writing, the Giants don’t have a #5 starter, with Winn looking like the prime option. However, I can’t believe that San Francisco doesn’t sign one of the volume arms on the market, with Hicks being the clear candidate ahead of Winn. In his small 42-frame sample last year, Winn’s splitter was nasty. Excellent strike rates, low ICR marks, and plenty of whiffs that you want from a splitter, doing its best to infatuate you for your conviction for a full season. Be better than that. It was a small sample and with Winn using the pitch over 50% of the time, it opens the door for disaster when the splitter – the most inconsistent pitch in baseball – isn’t there because let me tell you, the backup options are rough. It’s mostly two fastballs that carry all the poor variables to justify their 50%+ ICR rates, even with 96 mph velocity. Sadly, it means that Winn can’t be trusted as a breakout candidate as it’s just a splitter without as good of a fastball as Gausman’s (and even that one has issues!), and I imagine the Giants don’t want to rely too heavily on Winn.

 

152. Ross Stripling (OAK, RHP)

 

I’d be cautious chasing Stripling in 2024. There have been moments when Stripling excels in the part, rooted in finding his changeup and secondary rhythm, and it’s nigh impossible to know when he’ll find himself there once again, especially in his 34-year-old season.

Stripling relies on his slider (think cutter) for strikes inside the zone, landing away to both sides of the plate and resulting in a higher ICR than you’d want. Don’t let his four-seamer’s above-average SwStr rate get you swooning – the pitch gets blasted by both lefties and righties, as his over-the-top delivery creates a poor VAA that constantly helps the barrel find the pitch, even with its decent iVB and solid locations against LHBs. His sinker can do work against RHBs inside, but its lackluster movement and rare usage make it too small of an impact to push the needle.

A devastating changeup shines far brighter than the rest of Stripling’s arsenal. LHBs suffer from its vicious drop paired with plenty of deception coming from the same arm slot as his heaters, resulting in a 21% SwStr rate (and 40%+ ICR last year, but expect that to fall down in 2024). The pitch doesn’t have quite the same success against RHBs, though if he increases its usage toward 25-30% of the time, Stripling may be able to find a feel to prevent the pitch from frequently landing in the heart of the zone.

With the move to Oakland, expect Stripling to get a long leash to go six frames as he lives the dream he had for himself in San Francisco. I’m not certain that an extra inning or two will grant him a higher Win chance than he had previously, but at least there’s more upside to chase here, especially for those in Quality Start leagues. I’ll be monitoring Stripling for the times during the year when his slider and changeup are both cooking for a surprise stream here and there.

 

153. Alex Wood (OAK, LHP)

 

You know, the Athletics had a really fun situation heading into 2024 and they suddenly ruined it all overnight when they added Wood and Stripling to the crew. NICK! BE HAPPY FOR ALEX! I am! Don’t worry, it’s nice that he gets a chance to actually start and showcase what he can do on the bump for as long as he’s able to as the Athletics front office figures out where the team is sleeping that night instead of watching the game. And during that time, Wood is going to try to work upstairs with his strong Adj. VAA, but instead elect to sit away to LHB and get pummeled. Yes, I dislike it and wish he’d just use the pitch’s stellar horizontal run to eat up LHB alive. But it sets up the changeup! Nah, that think will still eat down-and-gloveside against LHB even if the sinker isn’t always sitting away. Sure, chuck a heater away every so often to keep em honest, but you have have your cake and eat it too.

And oddly enough, that sinker destroys RHB currently as it lands gloveside plenty as a front-hip pitch that’s tough to square up with the low arm-action – it’s the rare case where I’m happy the sinker holds 2nd percentile loLoc% as he’s leaning more into the flat arm angle. It’s why the sinker has a 29% groundball rate, good for 4th percentile among SP.

The final piece is Wood’s slider, boasting solid strike rates to both LHB and RHB, though the pitch can find the heart of the zone a bit too frequently, allowing more damage than ideal.

All in all, Wood is a super AL-Only sleeper in Oakland. Sure, the Wins aren’t going to be massive, but the skills here are better than you’d expect for a guy coming off a 4.33 ERA and 1.43 WHIP season, especially with the massive decline in strikeout rate to just 17%. I’d imagine Wood in a much clearer role and lack of pressure, he can squeeze more out of his arsenal and improve the walk rate as he earns more than a 54% strike rate with his changeup to RHB. That’s it? Just fix the changeup to RHB? Yuuuup. That easy.

 

154. Kyle Gibson (BAL, RHP)

 

I’m about to type the most mundane sentence you’ll read in these blurbs. Gibson’s foundation is a decent sinker. Meh. He doesn’t jam batters with them often but instead elects to sit glove-side, with a decent history of keeping it off barrels. RHBs got a new sweeper that did wonders down-and-away, but sweepers are less effective than gyro sliders to opposite-handed batters, forcing Gibson to adapt a cutter to go along with his changeup, which doesn’t quite work. Meanwhile, Gibson struggles to keep his changeup arm-side, creating more damage than ideal on the slowball to both LHB and RHB, which makes his already precarious ability emit a high-pitched crack, bearing its teeth as if you needed a larger deterrent to avoid Gibson in your drafts.

When facing a RHB heavy lineup, Gibson could return at least a strikeout per inning and find himself through six frames as the Cards are sure to let him soak up as many frames as possible. For the standard fantasy leagues, that makes Gibson a streamer at best and not an arm to circle in any draft.

 

157. Steven Matz (STL, LHP)

 

I don’t buy it. Womp womp. The sinker isn’t an exceptional offering, though it does limit damage better than I expected against LHBs for a pitch that lives away and over the plate constantly. His curve finds too much of the zone and can’t be relied upon as a big whiff pitch, while the changeup, the slowball that should debilitate RHBs, can’t find a home down-and-away to tempt whiffs, either.

His 22% strikeout rate is a product of called strikes against left-handers (king of the backward K!), and I just can’t get behind that. He hasn’t allowed a hits-per-nine under nine since 2018, forcing his WHIP to float above 1.25 each season and it’s hard to put faith in that mark improving in the season ahead, especially with his long history of combating injuries. So he’s a streamer. Nailed it.

 

158. Andrew Heaney (TEX, LHP)

 

Heaney has been the model of “slinging southpaw with questionable command” for a long while and looking at his performance against left-handers in 2022 and 2023 displays just that. His slider’s 30% SwStr was cut in half while he lost 15 points in strike rate between the two of them. There’s your problem. Heaney’s slider returned just a 55% strike rate against left-handed batters last year, missing far more bats despite not many changes to its approach – it was his execution in two-strike counts as it went from a 41% putaway rate to just 16%. Small samples will get you, though Heaney should increase that mark a bit from 2023 in the next year.

He’s surprisingly better against left-handers. The four-seamer carries a horrific 4% SwStr to left-handers, but that number climbs to 13% against right-handers, using his elite VAA and consistent spots up in the zone to fool batters, even with poor iVB. Heaney’s changeup carries exceptional horizontal movement as well and consistently stays arm-side, giving him a weapon he refuses to use against left-handers. This isn’t to say Heaney is stellar against right-handers, but at least there’s a showcase of a pitcher who could go five sturdy frames there.

I wouldn’t risk this given Heaney’s massive decline in whiffs on his slider, paired with a fastball that fails to bully batters and a changeup that carried just a 22% CSW against right-handers (solid ICR, though). The Rangers may need to push Heaney toward 25+ starts for another season (if he’s healthy enough to do so), but that doesn’t mean you have to join them.

 

159. Patrick Sandoval (LAA, LHP)

 

Pop Quiz: When was the last time The Irish Panda had a WHIP under 1.20? He never did. NOTHING GETS PAST YOU. He had a 1.21 in 2021 and has been 1.34 or higher in every other season. That doesn’t seem good. It sure isn’t. The walk rates are still high as he saves his changeup for two-strike counts over 40% of the time (that’s high), and the pitch has lost an inch of drop, while his four-seamer and sinker fail to hit the 65% strike clip. The slider lost a few inches of drop this past year as well, lowering its CSW to 27%, its first time under 31% in his career. The full arsenal has declined across the board and we’re at a point where it’s unwise to bank on redemption.

That said, I wonder if there’s an approaching shift that could work for Sandoval – the Neckbeard approach. Sandoval’s sinker has been a fantastic source of weak contact over the years (sub 30% ICR rates!), while along with his four-seamer, it gets more rise than your standard sinker. I can see him playing the called-strike game of Zac Gallen inside the zone, then toying like Dallas Keuchel underneath it with sliders and changeups as well. It may not work in the slightest, though at this point, Sandoval’s 4.11 ERA feels ready to implode with his 1.51 WHIP from last season. Might as well try something new, right?

 

160. Miles Mikolas (STL, RHP)

 

Oh Mikolas. When your goal is to pump sinkers and four-seamers with 40%+ ICR rates into the zone incessantly, you can’t expect to have good ratios, now can you? But there’s a curveball! And a slider! That hook is used more against left-handers, and…yup, over 40% ICR, this time with a strike rate just under 60%, and that’s for both sides of the plate. Fine, his slider! Hey, now that’s actually a decent offering, and yet it returns a 10% SwStr rate, and the 16% strikeout rate for all of 2023 then makes a whole lot of sense.

But wait! He struck out ten in his final game! I watched all of that game and in short, the Reds were a terrible offense. Mikolas’ glistening 2022 numbers were a product of a St. Louis defense that did him all the favors, and when the luck wavered at all, his hits-per-nine jumped from 7.6 to 10.1. That’s a lot of hits! And just like Z100, the hits won’t stop coming. You really should pass on Mikolas.

 

161. Randy Vásquez (SDP, RHP)

It’s incredibly milquetoast. Vásquez leans on four-seamers and sinkers that fail to excite, while his secondaries are unpolished. If he’s able to do more with the slider, jam batters with cutters, and locate his sinker better to RHBs, I can squint to see a 5+ inning arm consistently, especially if that curve can be harnessed as a proper weapon, though he has to take steps forward across the board before we trust him. If I were a betting man, I’d say Vásquez gets the #5 spot out of camp, which may mean he gets some attention with the Padres defense behind him. I wouldn’t trust it until at least one secondary pops off.

 

162. Michael Lorenzen (FA, RHP)

 

Remember when Lorezen had a 2.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP during a 14 start stretch in the middle of 2023? That was awesome. Congrats to the Tigers for Lorenzen’s great fortune as they were able to flip him at the deadline to the Phils, where he promptly imploded and was sent to the pen before too long.

Lorenzen’s approach is pretty straightforward. His four-seamer finds the zone with reckless abandon against both RHB and LHB (which somehow worked against RHB but was promptly blasted by LHB), a great sinker that jams RHB frequently, a decent slider to find strikes against both RHB and LHB (and doesn’t fare too well), and a changeup that performs well against LHB.

That doesn’t feel like an electric arsenal. Why were you expecting one from Lorezen? It’s a Toby at best, as you hope he faces RHB, who doesn’t destroy his heater and cross your fingers as the slider plops into the zone. I’m sure a team will find a use for Lorenzen and he’ll become a streaming option here and there but hot dang, this ain’t it. That fourteen start stretch was a clear outlier, adding some lovely makeup to an otherwise rigid season.

 

163. Luis Medina (OAK, RHP)

Medina is very arguably expected to start the season in the rotation, though I see his spot in a more fragile state than Boyle’s, especially with the plethora of arms below. His best skill is a new slider that at times was lights out last season, before fading like leaves in the fall. Stop being a terrible writer, Nick. Sorry. There’s a chance the slider has its day once again, but at best it becomes a Huascar Rule and that isn’t a rule you want to follow. The four-seamer isn’t terrible, but it isn’t exceptional either despite its 96 mph velocity, and the sinker, curve, and change leave very little to grasp.

 

164. Josiah Gray (WAS, RHP)

 

I remember being intrigued by Josiah back in 2021 and hoping he would hone his craft inside the Washington rotation now that he had a consistent, low-pressure role. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case. His four-seamer’s best asset is its flat VAA, rooted in a massive knee dip on release that gives the pitch as much help as possible to thrive upstairs, but its low extension, velocity, and average rise force him to be perfect with the pitch in order to get results. Spoiler alert: He doesn’t. In fact, the Nationals as a crew seem hesitant to lean into upstairs fastballs almost as if it’s a directive outside of the pitchers’ hands, which is as large of a repellent you can find for me taking interest in their starters.

The rest of the repertoire features a pair of breakers that sat above a 20% SwStr in previous years and have fallen to 15%+ marks recently as Gray can’t find a way to integrate them into his arsenal properly. A new cutter was introduced in 2023 to help gain strikes his fastballs struggled to steal without punishment, though its command is shaky and can’t be trusted for another year.

That makes for a starter who will get innings and some bright spots here and there but has far too much to fix and tweak to become a reliable arm in 12-teamers, let alone 15-teamers, especially on the low-powered Nationals offense.

 

165. Michael Kopech (CHW, RHP)

 

It’s disheartening to watch the downfall of Kopech. His four-seamer was a 97/98 mph pitch out of the pen in 2021 with solid extension and VAA, paired with 17+ inches of iVB, and then in 2022 he lost three ticks of velocity in a tumultuous year (93 mph some starts and then 97 mph the next), but pushed that iVB close to 18 inches. He’s so close!

And yet so far. 2023 was painful as the fastball became a 16.2 iVB pitch, with that same 95 mph velocity. Meanwhile, the slider hadn’t made the gains in command we wanted to see, nor had his curve or changeup, resulting in a pitch with highly questionable command, degrading stuff, and only flashes of the plus ability we saw as a reliever in 2021.

The journey for Kopech to become a reliable starter is simple: get movement and velocity back on his fastball, while finding the command across all his pitches to execute the BSB. Oh, and find a solution for left-handers, which may be as simple as regaining that heater to jam batters up-and-in. That doesn’t sound simple. Well, it is in concept, just not in execution. It’s a desperate dart throw and if Kopech has early success, make sure he’s ticking off these boxes before you believe in it.

 

166. Tristan Beck (SFG, RHP)

Beck has a solid slider that he leans on 2/3 of the time against RHBs (well, more like a cutter and sweeper that we’ve coalesced into one pitch), allowing his four-seamer to get called strikes and induce a shockingly low sub 30% ICR. It’s a bit odd and something I expect to regress in 2024, but I have to wonder if there’s some truth to those low batted ball marks from Beck on the heater. I also wonder if he’s able to add a third pitch against LHBs that allows him to keep his heater’s usage down. With these possibilities, there may be a world where we see him go more than five innings as a starter if he’s forced into the position throughout the year. In the meantime, his ceiling isn’t high enough to circle with a 19% strikeout last year that shouldn’t inflate overnight.

 

167. Martín Pérez (PIT, LHP)

 

I’m grouping together Pérez and Gonzales in the ranks because they are the most Ugh, the Pirates signings you’ll find as they are both Toby arms at best from the left side, where they’ll be quick to embrace the classic “end at-bats in three pitches or fewer” mentality of Clint Hurdle. We saw Pérez have a glorious 2022 with changeups, cutters, and sinkers beautifully spotted around the zone. However, it collapsed in 2023 and the reason is pretty easy to spot: His cutter was far worse and its strike rate went from 68% to 58%. Tada! There’s your answer.

Sure, there was good fortune such as a stupid low 0.50 HR/9 in 2022 as well, but the hit rate cratered as well before climbing back to normalcy in 2023 and there’s little reason to expect otherwise in Pittsburgh.

Pérez at least has opportunity and for those in Quality Start leagues, he’ll have all the innings he wants, opening the door for 15+ on the year as long as he’s healthy. Don’t expect the strikeouts to be there, nor ratios that propel your team forward, but if it’s volume you need, Pérez will have it with a touch better performance than the others at the bottom of the barrel.

 

168. Marco Gonzales (PIT, LHP)

 

I slotted Marco underneath Martín as I can see Pérez improve with his cutter and benefit from a proper role for a full year, showcasing a believable way to improve in the new team context. As for Marco, he had a rough 2023, which was hampered by a compressed nerve and forced him to get season-ending surgery. Now without the inhibitions in his wrist, it’s possible he takes a leap forward with his command to replicate his 2020 or 2021 seasons.

Because his four-seamer should never be touched (and yet he still does over 35% of the time…), he’ll need to get his changeup, curve, and cutter back on track to their former selves. It’s a tall order and not one we should bank on as the cutter’s usage against RHB has plummeted against RHB and the change is good but far from elite. At least the curve is still solid against LHB, even if it’s not the breaker it needs to be against RHB.

It’s not out of the question, but it’s a little more “black-box” of a regression than with Pérez in my view. Throw in the fact that Marco has had a strikeout rate above 19% just once in his last five seasons (the 11 starts of 2020) and it’s just so dang boring to draft. You can find replacements for a guy like this in-season, trust me. Yes, even in 15-teamers.

 

Tier 17 – One Shot, One Opportunity

These are highly unlikely to start out of camp, but are arms to heavily consider when they get their shot. Like Jobe is SO GOOD but who knows when.

 

169. Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP)

Jackson Jobe's slider is literally too nasty for his catchers to handle pic.twitter.com/yG06dVmqBY

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) April 29, 2022

He’s stupid filthy and there’s a decent chance Jobe is the star prospect arm of 2024 when he gets the call. At the moment, he seems to be the #7 arm of consideration (outside of Faedo or a bullpen game, of course) and I’d heavily consider a stash come the end of April, especially if the Tigers flirt with the idea of a six-man rotation to limit the innings of their young & recovering arms. Low walk rate, massive strikeout potential with a stupid good slider and a 95/96 mph heater upstairs, a cutter for strikes, and a debilitating changeup. IT’S ALL HERE.

 

170. Jared Jones (PIT, RHP)

Jared Jones (@Pirates' No. 3 prospect) tossed a 💎 for the @indyindians:

6 IP
1 H
0 R
1 BB
8 K pic.twitter.com/RG9fWJUoyv

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 16, 2023

He’s an exciting one. He sits 95/96 on his four-seamer and when he can consistently get it upstairs, it misses a ton of bats. He pairs it with a whiff-heavy slider that doesn’t nail the down-and-gloveside approach for sliders often enough, but he executes it just enough to make it a proper 1-2 punch. The curve is a show-me offering he hopes to get in the zone and the changeup is far from ready, but once he hits the majors, Jones could spin some dominant games with fastballs and sliders. I worry a bit about the consistency that outlines a Cherry Bomb upon promotion, but he’s sure to win the adoration of managers early with at least one early start earning a strikeout per inning.

 

 

171. Royber Salinas (ATL, RHP)

Royber Salinas 💪

The No. 21 @Braves prospect notched his first 8 outs via K and finished with 10 punchouts over 4.1 IP for @TheRomeBraves. pic.twitter.com/ahw9Xl3cJZ

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 14, 2022

Salinas should be on your radar. He throws upper 90s with a trio of secondaries that could each take over a game (especially that slider!). I wonder how far back on the depth chart he is with so many arms available for the Athletics, but if he’s making a major splash in Triple-A early in the season, Salinas could demand a rotation spot before the start of summer.

 

172. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, RHP) 

Jacob Misiorowski, Electric Stuff. ⚡️⚡️ pic.twitter.com/kaVLcLPL69

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 9, 2023

His stuff is ridiculous. He sits upper 90s and hit 101 in the MLB Futures Game (see below) with a hammer of a slider in the mid-to-upper 80s + a low-90s cutter. He’ll miss all the bats with his extension and velocity, though control will be the issue (not command, he just needs to throw strikes). He’s the kind of pitcher you pick up instantly when he gets the call and give it a whirl. If he’s found some way to limit free passes, Misiorowski will dominate. There is a risk that he turns into a bullpen arm, but we also thought that with Strider…This feels like the future of the Brewers.

 

173. Hurston Waldrep (ATL, RHP)

Hurston Waldrep has been dominant since the draft.

15 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 25 K (43.1% K)#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/ugzuz5T0aV

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) August 27, 2023

There’s a lot of hype around Waldrep, who has a big over-the-top fastball and pairs it with a legit splitter that tunnels so well as it falls under the zone. I’m generally against pitchers with splitters as their #2 offering (it’s the most volatile pitch), though Waldrep’s high release makes for a more consistent splitter that comes out of the hand properly (getting on top of the ball with a straighter wrist). That said, he walked three batters in three of his final four games of 2023, and command may be a battle throughout his career. Once he gets the call to the majors, Waldrep should be rostered, even if those walks and inefficiency could make for many growing pains.

 

174. Chase Hampton (NYY, RHP)

Drafted in 2022 and shut down to preserve his arm, Hampton tossed 20 starts and nearly 110 frames across A+ and AA ball where he maintained strong whiff rates and sub 10% walk rates with a solid 93/94 mph heater that looked to have success upstairs, leaning mostly on a pair of breakers that gave batters fits. There’s a 90 mph cutter in there as well and I’m curious how he’ll perform when he likely makes the jump to Triple-A this year. The Yankees could be turning to Hampton early with their injury-prone arms and keep a close eye on Hampton. There’s legitimate strikeout potential in his secondaries and if the four-seamer isn’t detrimental once we see his Statcast data, then you may have a sneaky prospect grab in-season.

 

175. Chayce McDermott (BAL, RHP)

Chayce McDermott started off the 2023 season right.

The No. 18 @Orioles prospect fanned six across four hitless innings, earning an Opening Day save for the @BowieBaysox: pic.twitter.com/UWuQNeO7c2

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) April 7, 2023

I kinda dig Chayce a lot. His four-seamer comes in around 94 mph, but its VAA, high locations, and 17 inches of iVB showcase why it sings upstairs when he can keep it there. He pairs it with a curve and slider he trusts, with a changeup that shows up here and there. It’s a mix that is rooted in a high heater and I can absolutely get behind that. His high walk rates are concerning, though it seemed as though he settled down a bit as the season continued. Expect Chayce to make a play for a rotation spot early in the season, especially if he has a great camp.

 

176. Will Warren (NYY, RHP)

As the #Yankees look for pivots on the pitching market, they have an excellent option internally in Will Warren that could boost their pitching staff. Posted an ERA+ above 130 at Triple-A this past season and has NASTY stuff 👀 pic.twitter.com/XgQ1IUabMd

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) December 22, 2023

Warren’s slider is a vicious offering with a ton of sweep, and when merged with a heavy sinker at 95/96 mph, Warren is a menace to RHBs trying to identify which direction each pitch is going. Fortunately, there’s a cutter in the mix as well to help take down LHBs, though he may need to lean more on his four-seamer to prevent hits off the sinker and breaker. He looks ready to go as the first call for the Yankees given his roughly 100 frames in Triple-A last season, and an arrival before May 1st isn’t out of the question as you could consider him the current #6 SP for the squad. He’s worth a spec add when it does happen, though the walk rate did rise above 10% last season and may be a hindrance in 2024, preventing six frames or even five in his first few outings.

 

177. Cade Povich (BAL, LHP)

Cade Povich tonight:

6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Nasty pic.twitter.com/ghS6IBtyU3

— The Verge- An Orioles MiLB Podcast (@TheVergePod) September 1, 2022

Cade is the other big name with the Orioles, though from my limited look into the two, I prefer McDermott over Povich, even if Cade comes from the left side. Both have nearly 17 iVB on the heater, but Chayce is a bit more consistent in keeping his heater upstairs (with better VAA, more velocity, and a little more extension), while I also trust the slider and curve a bit more. That said, Cade’s curve grades highly in Stuff+ while the cutter/slider has been a formidable weapon for him as well. It comes down to his ability to establish the heater effectively to set up his weapons and he could make an impact when he arrives. If only his heater was better than 92 mph…

 

178. Tink Hence (STL, RHP)

Tink Hence's debut for the @Sgf_Cardinals was a gem 💎

The second-ranked @Cardinals prospect fanned five in five strong innings, lowering his season ERA to 1.80: pic.twitter.com/FBDmnRpjQ0

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 5, 2023

He was able to hit upper 90s, but he’s young at just 21 years old and he pitched in Double-A in 2023, which means it’s unclear how much growth we’ll see between now and the depths of summer heat. If his heater can dominate through a full workload of six frames (he had many games around four or five innings last year), there’s a lovely foundation for him to take steps forward with a big high-70s hook and a changeup/slider combo hoping to earn consistent strikes.

 

179. River Ryan (LAD, RHP)

River Ryan, my No. 9 #Dodgers prospect, was excellent for Double-A Tulsa:

5.0 IP
1 H
0 R
2 BB
5 K
10 whiffs
66 P / 42 S

Ryan hit 99 mph on his fastball tonight and has a 3.33 ERA in 24 games this season pic.twitter.com/RsLlTb9ZoM

— Bruce Kuntz (@Bnicklaus7) September 8, 2023

I absolutely dig River. Big 96/97 mph heater, above-average extension, and great VAA make his heater play incredibly well, even if it doesn’t have the best iVB. His curve is a legit breaker, the 90/91 cutter is a solid strike pitch, and reports are that his athleticism speaks to the development of his changeup as well. He doesn’t have the deterrent we normally see from electric prospect arms of an extended history of terrible walk rates, and this could be the season he truly comes into his own after just two games at Triple-A in 2023. The number of options for the Dodgers make it hard to see when Ryan will get his chance, but you should pay attention when he does.

 

180. Kyle Hurt (LAD, RHP)

Dodgers hot take 2024. Remember a hot take is not necessarily a prediction, but rather a projection & going out on a limb a little bit.

Kyle Hurt starts in the pen & by the end of the year is the closer enabling Evan Phillips to be the high leverage guy pic.twitter.com/YrTqzou2bU

— Ray Lokar🗣️📋⚾🏀🥎🧢 (@CoachLok) February 2, 2024

He’s incredibly exciting after lowering his walk rates dramatically in 2023, though the ~10/11% clip is still a touch elevated. Hurt has a legit changeup with 95+ mph velocity that retired all six Padres batters in his sole game in the bigs, saving a newly developed gyro slider that could become a weapon in 2024. I’m curious if the four-seamer has major whiffability in the majors given its elite VAA that comes with both average extension and iVB, though both could improve with more time and development while the arm angle stays the same. The biggest question is that slider – if it’s a legit breaker, it completes Hurt’s arsenal as a second weapon to pair with the plus changeup that keeps RHB at bay and serves as a two-strike offering under LHB bats. Circle him if the Dodgers find themselves searching for another starter in the rotation – Hurt has a high chance above the others below.

 

181. David Festa (MIN, RHP)

David Festa showed why he’s my #6 prospect last night 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/uAGKO0A9FY

— Twins Central (@TwinsCentral1) August 2, 2023

You’re going to hear more about Festa early in the season and I’m undecided if I’m stoked for him or if he’s a small step back from legit hype. With the lack of starting depth inside the Twins roster, Festa has a quick path to the majors, arguably acting as their #7 SP at the time of writing (I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins signed a depth arm like Lorenzen, Davies, or Ryu for the first few months). Festa’s 94 mph heater comes with great iVB and solid extension, but the pitch’s middling VAA makes me wonder if it’s enough to carry him through starts. His best pitch is a changeup that is sure to work in the bigs, but is his heater and slider good enough to let the pitch soar? I’m not sure they provide enough of a spark. He’ll be worth the spec add when the time arrives and we’ll take it from there.

 

182. Christian Scott (NYM, RHP)

Christian Scott K's the 1st 2 batters of the game and Jett Williams fields the ground ball at SS and the @RumblePoniesBB are underway. #Mets #LGM #MetsTwitter @ernestdove @MiLBMetsMadness @bkfan09 @WexlerRules @ImAriBeRKO @bronxfanatic @draftniks pic.twitter.com/QK0vr1ROCd

— Mets News and Links (@JohnFromAlbany) September 13, 2023

Sooooo Scott tossed 62 frames in 12 starts in Double-A and carried a 29% K-BB rate with a 17% SwStr rate. He seemingly has great extension with a low arm angle that makes the ball look like a laser to the top of the zone for likely a fair number of whiffs at the big league level. In concert with a strong slider and changeup, the arsenal is there, and we’re just waiting for him to get enough volume to ensure he can locate effectively and keep his velocity up as he continues to get stretched out. I initially thought Scott was a 2025 arm given his oblique injury in early 2023, but with an invite to Spring Training ahead, the Mets could be more aggressive than I initially anticipated. Here’s one to circle for later in the year as a spec add when the call is made.

 

183. DJ Herz (WAS, LHP)

This is the best video I could find on DJ Herz

I’d wager we see Herz soon in 2024. He’s racked up whiffs with a 15%+ mark in both the Cubs and Nationals systems in 2023 as a slinging southpaw with a fastball, changeup, breaker mix that should remind you of Heaney, Manaea, Abbott, and many other low arm-angled lefties of the past. It does mean he carries the same concerns about control (14% walk rate) and I would be careful to trust him in his rookie season as the Shag Rug is sure to be present, making for, at best, a Cherry Bomb scenario.

 

184. Nick Nastrini (CHW, RHP)

Perfection from Nick Nastrini.

The No. 6 @whitesox prospect fans three as he retires all 15 batters he faces in his final @KnightsBaseball start of the year. pic.twitter.com/ThCddzROgS

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) September 24, 2023

There’s hype around Nastrini after being acquired in the Lynn/Kelly deal with the Dodgers in 2023 as he’s the clear favorite to jump from the minors to the rotation before the summer arrives. His four-seamer sits low-to-mid 90s with great iVB and decent VAA, while the slider and change tunnel well off the heater to get extra deception and this propelled the 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year. I wonder a little whether that deception will still play in the majors, while his walk rates have never been favorable (always above 10% with a ~11/12% rate across roughly 115 frames in the minors last year. I’ll have my eye on him, though the lower velocity and perceived reliance on deception make me a bit skeptical that he can come up and be productive out of the gate.

 

185. Emerson Hancock (SEA, RHP)

He was shut down in August with a Grade-1 shoulder injury (low number = good) and had no structural damage. In other words, Hancock should be the clear #6 #7 option for the Mariners in camp and would slide into the rotation should they need backup. Hancock’s fastballs have plenty of armside break, which will hopefully turn into effective grounders instead of barrels, while the slider is the clear favorite inside the zone to help earn strikes. There’s potential in his changeup if he can wield it consistently, though expecting a 25%+ strikeout rate from Hancock is unfair. He’s more of a Toby than a Holly given the heavy armside fastballs and lack of overwhelming whiff pitch.

 

Tier 18 – Bring Out Yer IL

More IL stashes, with most being ones to let you know they shouldn’t be starting this year. It’s sad, y’all.

 

186. Tyler Mahle (TEX, RHP)

 

Oh hey, another solid starter who the Rangers are hoping to throw significant innings down the stretch. Mahle is on the shelf with TJS and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, mostly paying for the second year. When Mahle does return, I’m excited to see what he can do over a full healthy season (and hopefully some of 2024). In April, we saw an improved four-seamer shape nearing 18 iVB, though there were velocity issues holding him back. He improved his slider as well, focusing more on vertical break than a sweeper shape, and also increased the drop on his splitter. Oh Driveline, thank you for what you do. He’ll have my attention when he does return to the field, especially if he’s sitting 94 mph again and actually getting that four-seamer upstairs against right-handers instead of whatever that outside approach was last year – kids, don’t throw four-seamers middle-away to same-handed batters. Thanks.

 

187. Jeffrey Springs (TBR, LHP)

He went under the knife in April last season, opening the door for a second-half return for managers who want an injury stash. His personal philosophies aside, Springs could have the same dominant changeup, though the command may take some starts to return. Not my favorite stash for the likely shake-off of rust + his inflated adoration given his two 2023 starts of dominance came against the Tigers and Athletics.

 

188. David Peterson (NYM, LHP)

Peterson is on the shelf after undoing hip surgery and won’t be stretched out and ready to return until opening day is well in the past. When he does return, I wonder what we’ll actually get from him. His elite slider of 2022 still boasted a 20%+ SwStr this past year, though it came in a little tighter and he attempted to nail the arm-side corner more often. I’m not sure if I’m a fan of the whole schtick with the excellent extension but horrible fastball shape, and I’d be saving Peterson as just a streamer.

 

189. Luis Garcia (HOU, RHP)

Remember him? Garcia underwent TJS in May of 2023, which likely spells a full season on the mend, but we could see some frames from him late in the season as the Astros could be desperately looking for reliable innings. His cutter and slider combo can be fantastic when it’s cooking, though, I wouldn’t expect to see it all come together in his limited time, let alone if we even see him at all.

 

190. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, RHP)

Lance is recovering from his mid-June flexor tendon injury that originally had a timeline of 12-13 months and it makes for a decent IL stash, but not one I’m jumping for in leagues. When he does return, will we see him able to trust the same slider or curve as we did before? Will his notoriously questionable control still be apparent, leading to short four-inning outings (the likely scenario initially at the very least) consistently? He was a Cherry Bomb before and introducing the wrinkle of recovering from injury makes it a tougher sell.

 

191. Alex Cobb (SFG, RHP)

He’s out until July or so with a hip injury and when he does return, he’s likely to still rough up your WHIP with a poor hit rate, and the strikeout rate will be dependent on his splitter being at its peak, an experience that comes along too infrequently for my tastes. Cobb is the perfect example of a pitcher who we ignore in drafts and wait to see how he looks post-injury before considering him for a questionable stream.

 

192. Brandon Woodruff (FA, RHP)

He’s very likely out for the year after getting shoulder surgery. But there’s an outside chance he will come back in September for a competitive team! Sure, why not. I love dreaming and escaping reality, too.

 

193. Matthew Boyd (FA, LHP)

When he underwent TJS in late June, I got my Audubon and gave a loud whistle for our Boyd Boyz. All we can do is hope he makes it back before the end of the season and does what Skubal did – showcases renewed velocity while boasting a dope changeup. Imagine that happens and he has his whiff heavy slider…

 

194. Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)

 

Hey buddy. I can’t wait to draft you for 2025. There will be a ton of pushback about how his value was in volume and coming off TJS means fewer innings and worse value, while I’ll note that a man throwing with a hurt elbow will have worse command and a healthy one speaks to Sandy being the best version of himself. H*ck, watching him this season made me frustrated at his approach at times, and there was so much more he could be doing. As for 2024, it’s a wasted late pick sadly. He should not pitch a lick next year.

 

195. Shane McClanahan (TBR, RHP)

You know McShane, sadly I doubt he will make an appearance in 2024 with a late August 2023 TJS operation. We’ll be thinking of you.

 

196. Tony Gonsolin (LAD, RHP)

Gonsolin underwent TJS in August of last year and should miss all of 2024. Let’s move on here. Sorry Tony.

 

197. Ian Anderson (ATL, RHP)

He underwent TJS in April of 2023 and could appear sometime in the second half. He’ll turn 26 years old next year and it’s possible he makes the necessary tweaks to his arsenal while re-learning his mechanics to make him an impact arm down the stretch.

 

198. Kyle Wright (KCR, RHP)

He was acquired in the Jackson Kowar deal with Atlanta and should miss all of 2024. He’s sure to be labeled as a super sleeper for 2025, though I wasn’t encouraged by his lack of skills past the curveball, nor do I love the idea of targeting a pitcher with shoulder issues.

 

199. Andrew Painter (PHI, RHP)

Andrew Painter's first full inning against Major League Hitters pic.twitter.com/8X23ebnlo4

— Phillies Muse (@Phillies_Muse) March 1, 2023

He underwent Tommy John in July 2023 and will miss all of 2024. Womp womp. But hey, he’s really good and should be a major add when he debuts in mid-2025 after he has a few months in the minors to work back up again, right?

 

200. Vince Velasquez (FA, RHP)

Velasquez could return quicker than most here after getting hybrid UCL surgery that has a shorter 11-12 month timeline vs. the 14-16 of traditional TJS. and don’t you dare forget Velasquez’s remarkable five game stretch of just 4 ER that included a monster 10 strikeout game – there was some legit life in that arm before the tear. Big thanks to an improved slider that he suddenly hurled 45% of the time and featured heavily against RHB and LHB for consistent dominance. Does he break the Huascar Rule? Well sure, he doesn’t have his heater of old. But it’s something and something is cool way you’re way down here…