TOP 100 SP RANKINGS UPDATE – 3/12/2025 HERE
THESE RANKINGS ARE OUTDATED
Welcome to the ultimate guide to drafting Starting Pitchers for 2025 Fantasy Baseball . I’ve ranked the Top 400 (actually 450…) starting pitchers for the year ahead in an attempt to determine every SP who could help your fantasy teams this season.
However, before you scroll down to the Top 1-20, it’s incredibly important that you read this introduction. It highlights how I rank pitchers and why this is not a projection of the end of season Player Rater. It’s my strategy of how I draft pitchers, embracing the burn and churn nature of the game.
How To Use These Rankings
These rankings mean nothing if we’re not on the same page about how to draft for the season ahead. Remember, you are not drafting a Best Ball team – on those teams you are stuck with the arms you draft for the entire year. Because it’s a game of burn and churn, my rankings reflect a different upside/floor weight than an attempt to replicate the 2025 end of season Player Rater rankings. In other words, these are Draft Rankings, not ROS Rankings.
With that in mind, I wanted to focus on two tenets that are reflected in these rankings:
- 1. Draft FOUR starting pitchers I trust to never drop during the season
There’s a classic phrase I hear during draft season. I need to get that one SP I can rely on in the early rounds. I don’t adhere to this thought most seasons and I especially don’t for 2025. Pitcher injuries are awfully random (save for the rare few with heightened risks: Glasnow, deGrom, etc.), and despite all the rhetoric you and I emit, SP volume will remain the most difficult part of pre-season analysis. The good news? This year’s SP landscape is massive in the top half, allowing you to create that foundation among many instead of few.
Consider your seasons of old and think about the pitchers who have stuck around on your teams throughout the year and compare them to those you’ve enlisted and returned to the waiver wire. Your goal in your draft is to snag four of the first group, opening up the rest of your SP inventory to plan for the wire, take chances, and make mistakes. No, it is unlikely for all four to stay healthy, and that amplifies the necessity to grab four of these pitchers.
The range for me at this point in February ends around the late 50s at Nathan Eovaldi, which is a little deeper than normal seasons.
- 2. Chase upside & pitchers you can drop early instead of middling decent pitchers
This is I Don’t Draft Tobys in a nutshell and is rooted in how much opportunity there is on the waiver wire in April & May. You need to put yourself in a position to take chances on pitchers early in the season as so many of them hit and become legit foundation starters through the year. Make sure your final pitchers are guys you can move on from early in April if it’s not panning out, and if you draft middling arms instead, you’ll likely hold onto to a 3.70 ERA guy instead of taking the chance on a true league winner. Don’t be that manager.
Don’t believe me? Here are Starting Pitchers who had a 2024 ADP of #290 or later and could be snagged in your leagues:
And that’s not even including this rag-tag crew containing many pitchers you were able to grab at specific points of the season for legit value:
The whole goal is to win your league, not leave the draft getting appropriate value for the round you picked them. Grab SPs who are easily identifiable as early drops who also have a ceiling that is far above their draft value. You don’t win leagues being the one who drafted Erick Fedde in 2024, you win them because you took a shot on Reynaldo López instead.
Now you understand. That’s where I’m coming from with these rankings and it’s important to not treat them as a “Best Ball” ranking – you’re not drafting a team you hold for the full year, instead you’re drafting a team with anticipation that you’re burning and churning at the back-end of your roster. It’s the way you win your leagues.
Early 2025 Team Schedules
One element that I often don’t discuss this early when doing rankings is the expected opening weekend schedule. It doesn’t have much of an impact on these rankings, but as we get closer to the start of the year and rotations become clearer after trades, signings, and injuries, it may reveal some late-round targets to sneak in a start or two in your head-to-head leagues that may turn into season-long holds (like Jared Jones and Garrett Crochet this past season).
First, here are the individual offense ranks:
Nick’s Terrible Offense Ranks From The End of 2024
In essence, we should only be considering being conservative against the Top tier offenses (and maybe some Solid tiers as well), while take a chance here or there against the Poor offenses (I’m sure some will surprise us!). Everything else in the middle is up for grabs.
And here is how the start of 2024 shapes up:
Note: The Dodgers and the Cubs will meet in Japan for a two-game series. This isn’t reflected in the table below.
Also note: These offensive tiers are the final tiers from the end of the 2024 season and I’m willing to wager a significant number of teams shift tiers before the start of 2025.
Thanks to Josh Mockensturm for putting together this table!
Opening Weekend SP Streamers
Why draft a 4/5th rotation-spot SP who will likely be on the waiver wire when you can draft someone who has a start opening weekend? You can gain an early advantage drafting an opening weekend SP, see if it’s worth a hold, then moving to your other options who will make their first start in the second series of the season.
- White Sox vs. LAA – Could mean Sean Burke or Noah Schultz turn
- Rockies @ TBR – Just kidding
- Angels @ CHW – Pay attention to this rotation in the spring. A quick stream of Tyler Anderson if he’s their Opening Day arm could turn into two starts (@STL) or more. Maybe test the waters with José Soriano, too.
- Marlins vs. PIT – If Edward Cabrera steals the show in the spring, he could make for a fun “Let’s just see if he actually has control” start.
- Pirates @ MIA – This is likely Skenes, Keller, Jones. I wouldn’t go after Keller, while the latter two will be drafted.
- Rays vs. COL – Likely three of McShane, Springs, Baz, Bradley, and Pepiot, though a Free Agent could displace this. After Shane McClanahan, I’m not sure the order.
- Dodgers vs. DET – Oh how I wonder what the Dodgers rotation will be. If there’s a Toby type here (somehow), consider it for a cheap Win.
- Athletics @ SEA – The Mariners hosted a questionable offense for most of the year + T-Mobile Park increased strikeouts by roughly 25%. Maybe Joey Estes adds a tick or two of velocity?
Poor 4th/5th SP Schedules
If you’re drafting an arm to “Take a flier”, make sure you actually want to start him in his first outing. You do not want to have deadweight on your bench for the first ten days of the season!
- Diamondbacks @ NYY – I sure hope Ryne Nelson is the #3, while Eduardo Rodriguez may be a fool’s errand.
- Atlanta @ LAD – If Max Fried walks, I wonder how this pans out. Steer clear of Grant Holmes or AJ Smith-Shawver if they have one of those final spots.
- Red Sox @ BAL – I’m not sure how this rotation will shape up. This could be Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, etc. and I’m curious if they will demand our attention in the spring.
- Guardians @ SDP – This does make me a little more tepid on Joey Cantillo.
- Rockies @ PHI – As if.
- Dodgers vs. ATL – Either Bobby Miller has it or not. If we’re feeling great out of camp, we’re likely not thinking about this.
- Yankees vs. ARI – I don’t think this is enough to stop Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil.
- Giants @ HOU – For those hoping Landen Roupp finds his footing, you can wait until he proves it first.
- Rangers @ CIN – This could be Kumar Rocker and/or Jack Leiter. Unless they are getting all the hype during the spring without volatility, they may be an avoid early on.
Great Early SP Schedules
These rotations may be able to feast early.
- Marlins: vs. PIT, vs. NYM, @ ATL, @NYM, vs. WSN – Save for Atlanta, this isn’t too scary of a time. Keep an eye on their arms in the spring.
- Rays: vs. COL, vs. PIT, @TEX, @LAA – McShane, Springs, Baz, and Pepiot could have a field day early in the year. And maybe I’ll give Taj Bradley another chance. Probably not.
- Angels: @CHW, @STL, vs. CLE, vs. TBR, @HOU – Maybe there’s some lengthy streaming here.
- Yankees: vs. MIL, vs. ARI, @PIT, @DET, vs. SFG – Not the best start, but it could mean Clarke Schmidt gets great Win chances early if you can stomach the Diamondbacks. Whoever their #3 starter is for the year should benefit as they avoid the Sneks.
- Guardians: @KCR, @SDP, @LAA, vs. CHW, vs. KCR – If you can skip the Padres series, you’re in great shape. I expect Tanner Bibee to get the opening day ball, but Gavin Williams could be the perfect mix of ceiling and floor across a trio of comfortable matchups if he’s the #3.
Rough Early SP Schedules
Some teams are going to be better to wait on.
- Cubs: @ARI, @ATH, vs. SDP, vs. TEX, @LAD – Yeeeesh. Caleb Kilian, Javier Assad, and Jameson Taillon are not targets for 12-teamers as they endure this.
- Nationals: vs. PHI, @TOR, vs. ARI, vs. LAD, @MIA – It may be best to give MacKenzie Gore a little breathing room. DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker are clear avoids, too.
- Atlanta: @SDP, @LAD, vs. MIA, vs. PHI – Save for Miami, this looks rough. The #5 on the squad could get the Dodgers and Phillies so be aware if you’re chasing Grant Holmes or AJ Smith-Shawver.
At first glance, it doesn’t seem like this strategy is all too helpful for 2025. That said, offenses will change, rotations will shift, and spring will bring new excitement. Refer to this table in March.
I Updated Some Terms
I have a bevy of silly terms the staff and I have come up with across our 10+ years and I wanted to do some updating this year on three popular ones:
- Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who has ace upside and you can’t drop, but hot dang Dylan Cease, get it TOGETHER. This is an upgrade from last year’s iteration, which had arms who you were debating to hold or drop. These are potential AGA pitchers who currently lack consistent command and are still clear holds.
- Holly = He doesn’t have Top 15 SP potential like a Cherry Bomb, but he won’t be dropped onto the wire, either. A stable ratio-arm with QS expectations and at least a 20%+ strikeout rate. Can be an ace if it’s stupid dependable or pushes over the 25% strikeout rate.
- Toby = A pitcher you keep wanting to replace from the waiver wire. It’s the boring “I guess he does just enough” ratio-focused arm who has roughly a 20% strikeout rate (or lower) and you’ll have stretches holding him until you finally have that option on the wire you want to add.
- HIPSTER = Headache Inducing Pitcher Stifling The Entire Roster. A pitcher who is simply too volatile to hold onto long term and really doesn’t help your team by sticking on your roster. I’ll be using this one as the old version of Cherry Bomb, focusing on players who are the final arms on your staff who have clear upside potential but their volatility may too much to endure.
Alright, let’s get to it now. Go ahead and select one of the ranking ranges at the bottom and enjoy.
Read The Notes
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Don’t forget Jake Bloss!
This list and the depth of analysis is frikkin amazing. I’m telling absolutely NO ONE in my league about it.