Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025 – SP Rankings 41-60

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41. Shohei Ohtani (SP) (LAD, RHP)

I’m having so much trouble ranking Ohtani as an SP. Here’s the issue: If he’s a two-way player in your league, this doesn’t matter. He should go 1-1 in your drafts. If he’s two separate players, then Ohtani will be missing over a month and might sit on your bench without an IL designation, depending on your league. That turns Ohtani into the equivalent of a stud SP prospect stash, which is lovely…when you draft them late. In addition, when Ohtani shows up, he’s sure to be limited heavily during his starts. Hopefully it’s early in the year and then ramps up in the second half, but you may not be getting prime quality per start until the summer. That’s rough.

I do believe you will be getting quality at some point with his high velocity, fantastic sliders, and putaway splitter. It’s just a problem of enduring it as a manager and quantifying what it’s like as a fantasy manager in season. Let me put it this way: If Ohtani were in the rotation on Day 1 with the expectation of 140 IP (and no IL stint), I’d have him somewhere around the 20s (it’s a mix of higher volume but slightly lower quality guys + Shane McClanahan, who is in a similar situation). I have him roughly 15-20 picks lower than that as I placed him right at the point where I can say “you’re going to get solid locked in value with the higher ranked arms, and not as guaranteed with the arms below”. Take that as you will and monitor whatever news we get about him this spring.

Quick Take: He’s sure to be great when he starts, but enduring the first month or two of the season with Ohtani potentially on your bench (and not on the IL!) is frustrating, to say the least. Know yourself as a manager and draft accordingly. He’s a Top 10 SP stud on a per-start basis when let loose in full.

42. Hunter Greene (CIN, RHP)

2024 has all the signs of a peak season from Greene. A stupid low 5.7 hit-per-nine with classic minute .239 BABIP behind it, a home run rate cut in half to just 0.72 HR/9 (and 7.2% HR/FB!), an 80% LOB rate (oh snap, the full HOTEL in effect!), and improvements in ICR rate against all hitters with his four-seamer and slider.

And it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. His four-seamer did gain an extra inch of iVB to 16″ from 15″ with a slight uptick in extension to 6.5 (that’s fine, not stellar, but fine), but is that enough to warrant 60% decline in HRs allowed on the heater? But he added a splitter! He barely touched it to RHB (it was terrible) and it held a paltry 14% putaway rate to LHB with an 11% SwStr rate a horrible strike just above 50%. It wasn’t good y’all.

It’s possible I’m undervaluing the small gains on the heater merged with a focus on increased lateral break on the slider at the cost of drop. And yet, we all know regression is coming to some degree (that is, his pitch results are still not representative of a 5.7 hits per nine. That’s unheard of), and I’m not confident we’re a sizeable distance away from the 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP days of 2023. This is all without mention his massive injury risk with his ultra velo and 26 starts marking his career high last year, nor the coiled HR rate ready for liftoff in Cincinnati.

Quick Take: Greene’s 28% strikeout rate with glorious ratios in 2024 is sure to prop him in drafts, though the lack of a third pitch merged with clear regression across performance has me labeling Greene as a high bust candidate for 2025. I’d wait until the productive workhorses are off the board for consideration.

43. Carlos Rodón (NYY, LHP)

Rodón’s 2024 explained in three parts. First 14 starts: 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 23% K rate, 6% BB rate. Three starts in June: 13.17 ERA, 2.49 WHIP, 24% K rate, 8% BB rate. Final 15 starts beginning July 3rd: 3.43 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 31% K rate, 9% BB rate. Let’s break this down.

Early season: Rodón was mostly attacking with four-seamers and sliders, with the occasional changeup or cutter. Life was easy, batters didn’t hone in on a specific pitch and balls found gloves, and he did his thing without worry.

June 15th-June 28th: Rodón was figured out. Batters jumped on his early heaters, balls found grass, and he needed to do something different than early heaters, late sliders.

July 3rd-End: Rodón jumped from 8% changeup usage to 20% changeup usage against RHB, mixed in his slider, curves, and cutters a bit more sporadically, and nibbled a touch more to avoid batters jumping out of their shoes for a fastball.

It’s pretty clear Rodón made a shift in the right direction after his turmoil, and I’d be shocked if he returned to his old ways of heavy fastball/slider focus. In addition, Rodón has now returned two 170+ inning seasons in three seasons and looks well equipped for another strong season.

I simply wish I could buy into his heater a touch more. I don’t love its shape and find it a bit too hittable at times, and with the embrace of his changeup to LHB, I wonder if he could add a sinker to jam LHB to keep them from teeing off the 47% ICR pitch. It’s the final piece.

Quick Take: Rodón may not have the greatest WHIP tied to a new approach of nibbling with secondaries, but he’ll come packed with 25-30% strikeouts, many Wins, and an ERA that hopefully won’t get bloated by unfortunate HRs. Draft Rodón without fear of dropping him.

44. Kodai Senga (NYM, RHP)

Here’s the situation. Senga was going inside the Top 30 SP easily entering last year (this guy had him around SP #20!), but a shoulder capsule strain sent him to the IL. He fought back, did everything right, and returned on July 26th with the same 95/96 mph velocity and… suffered a calf strain that ended his season. But it’s worse. A report came out stating Senga had triceps tightness during his initial rebound…but he returned and it doesn’t quite matter…? But wait! The Mets made the playoffs! There’s still time! Ah, right. Well, that was terrible and the velocity was down until his third outing where we saw 95/96 mph on the fastball again. And that’s all I need.

The command was terrible, I get it. I’m not alone in the theory of injured pitchers benefiting from a showcase of normal velocity for a game or two at the end of the previous season. There have been no reports of injuries or setbacks over the winter and Senga looks ready to be a workhorse on the Mets squad after missing so much time last year. That means his legit splitter and cutter are back to be a wonderful whiff/strike tandem + his four-seamer cruising around the zone and hoping to avoid bats to set up his great secondaries.

Don’t believe the 11% walk rate of his rookie year – once Senga settled into the bigs by mid-June, he returned ace-like production for the rest of the season with a sub 10% walk rate and a digestible WHIP. I’d expect the same with a 25%+ strikeout rate and solid ERA from the SP Queens desperately needs.

Quick Take: Injuries have depressed Senga’s value dramatically, though a showcase of velocity in his final appearance of the playoffs should make us confident for health entering this season. Expect his cutter and splitter to dominate with some volatility rooted in the questionable 95/96 mph four-seamer, with a few starts in April shorter than the rest to ease him back into the role.

45. Ryan Pepiot (TBR, RHP)

Command, you fiend! It’s the only concern I have with Pepiot as he’s equipped with an elite four-seamer (sub 2% mistake rate against both RHB and LHB is BONKERS) and his slider + change both profile to be excellent offerings, on top of a budding cutter he started using at the end of last season against LHB. The package speaks to 25%+ strikeouts given the overpowering heater, though the secondaries open the door for problems in the future, especially moving to a HR-heavy home park.

What should excite you is the clear regression coming for his slider and changeup in two-strike counts – regression toward better efficiency as each had terrible putaway rates against their supposed advantageous opponents. Changeups held a 17% putaway rate against LHB, the slider an unseen 13% clip against RHB, and yet Pepiot still carried a 26% strikeout rate. A rate eclipsing 30% is very much in his reach.

But will he be efficient enough to exercise that rate through six full frames? I watched a lot of Pepiot and it was painful enduring the starts where Pepiot lost faith in his secondaries, forcing endless heaters nibbling the edges with varying success. The evidence is in their strike rates against RHB, hovering 60% each when they should be comfortably above the mark, if not near 65% with his slide piece. The changeup underperformed as well, featuring a minimal 12% SwStr to LHB, which has all the signs pointing toward dominance in the future.

Pepiot is only one full season into his career, though, and given the strides taken in both his four-seamer and overall approach, I’m willing to take the chance that he’ll improve once again in 2025. Let’s do it.

Quick Take: Pepiot improved his skillset during his first year in Tampa as a proper starter and has a clear path for growth to ascend as a Top 20 SP option. The downside is potential frustrating with HRs in his new park and wavering secondary feel, though the highs should dwarf the lows.

46. Zac Gallen (ARI, RHP)

Gallen has never quite made sense to me across his last few seasons. His four-seamer isn’t a dominant offering, instead relying on it to land in the zone for called strikes to set up his Deathball curveball (sorry The Bear, Gallen’s hook deserves the title more than you).  And his breaking ball consistently sits among the leaders in loLoc% and O-Swing% as it looks just like the heater out of his hand before falling into the dirt.

But outside of that? It gets tough. The changeup goes in and out, the slider/cutter makes appearances and isn’t what you want it to be…especially not a 55% strike rate slider that mostly appears early in counts. Pair that with massive drops in strike rates for his four-seamer to both LHB and RHB and there’s your massive walk-rate jump that led to a 1.26 WHIP.

The benefit of Gallen is his consistent volume with a reliable 24%+ strikeout rate for a winning team. The downside is the struggle with his arsenal. Can he continue to induce such extreme success on his out-of-zone curveball? (A sub 30% zone rate with a 66% strike rate is masterful.) I fear his four-seamer will continue to get worse, not better, struggling to find a rhythm once again as he induced a horrid 47% ICR with fastballs last year. That said, he’s displayed the ability to adapt in-season and has better command than the walk rate would suggest. There’s more concern with his raw ability than the names inside the Top 30, but I have to give him more credit than the risks in the Cherry Bomb tier of the 40s as I don’t expect you to drop Gallen all year.

Quick Take: Gallen’s curveball has been the provider for years and the supporting cast was as weak as ever in 2024. Gallen needs to find more strikes with his slider and fastball while getting drop back on his changeup if he’s to flirt with acedom again. At the very least, hefty volume with double-digit Wins and 170+ strikeouts are still here if you can endure the ratio anxiety.

47. Yu Darvish (SDP, RHP)

Hey y’all, get Darvish’s ghastly 2023 out of your head. That was a clear outlier in Darvish’s career, featuring an 8.8 hit-per-nine out of nowhere versus a career mark of 7.4 that Darvish beat with a 7.2 clip in 2024. His season was cut short not by injury, but by a personal issue that forced him to head home and now that he’s back with the crew, I see the same WHIP-friendly, somewhat HR-prone, lovely K-BB% arm we’ve known for years. Sure, he’ll always carry a bit of risk of a blowup given the way his daily arsenal flows like paint sliding down a canvas, but the depth of quality pitches will make him relevant.

Did you forget? The sinker masterfully lands inside to generate outs to RHB, while all three breakers (slider, sweeper, curve) return sub 30% ICR marks against RHB at 52% usage combined. That’s bliss against the common enemy.

He has a harder time against LHB, with the slider returning a nightmarish 50%+ ICR across each of his last two seasons (however, that may be a pitch classification error with the slider jumping from 82 mph in 2022 to 85/86 the last two years…), and all but the four-seamer and sinker struggling to land under the 40% clip. Strikes and whiffs are still present, though, and I imagine figuring out this attack is the biggest off-season plan. Maybe the cutter at 90/91 mph is the solution? Regardless, Darvish will be Darvish – helpful with a few blowups as he gets Wins for the Padres. You want this, especially at his cheap cost.

Quick Take: Don’t run away from Darvish in the mid-late rounds. He’s still a reliable starter whose floor is higher than others due to his vast arsenal. Expect a strikeout per inning as he constantly finds the sixth, while the WHIP is sure to stay low. Here’s to hoping the HR bug doesn’t hit him too hard this year and you have a discount SP #3 for your fantasy teams.

48. Hunter Brown (HOU, RHP)

Hunter is a weird one and to be honest, I generally don’t like drafting weird. You may remember Hunter’s start to the year being a bit shaky to say the least, with a 5 ER clunker against the Rangers getting off the hook after he imploded for 9 ER and 11 Hits across just two outs in Kansas City the very next week. Managers were put in a tough spot and those who elected to hold Brown were rewarded with riches – a 2.88 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 162.1 IP with a 26% strikeout rate for his next 28 games. I know many hate this approach (you can’t ignore what you don’t like!), but deep down, y’all know it to be true. Be honest.

I remember writing about Brown across the year and not quite making sense of it all. Some starts he’d find a secondary and fall in love with it, others lean into four-seamers only to go sinker-strong the next. It felt like a pitcher trying to figure himself out, experimenting with a deep seven-pitch mix that was really a five-pitch mix, and that’s generous to a changeup reserved for LHB that he shouldn’t throw much at all.

The approach turned into a mini-Wheeler, without the same oh snap that Wheeler brings. Despite the 17″ of iVB on the four-seamer, it has expected movement based on Brown’s steep arm angle, making it have deadzone movement. So does the sinker. And the cutter. You can’t be serious. Sure am. It’s awfully frustrating given Brown’s ability to locate the heater upstairs and pair it with the sinker inside to RHB, and while I think Brown’s mix of the two is a reason he’s been able to overcome it (more sinkers than four-seamers to RHB as the year went on), it concerns me moving forward. But the four-seamer had a 15% SwStr to RHB! With a poor ICR and it is sure to be a problem again in the year ahead.

I also question his feel for spin. Brown moved on from the slider to introduce more cutters (deadzone cutter, remember) and he doesn’t have a whiff-friendly secondary offering left. The curve is a big fella that catalyzed 2023’s strikeout rate against both LHB and RHB, but its usage dropped dramatically in 2024, now mainly reserved for LHB to get early called strikes with the occasional punchout.

I’m concerned the high putaway rates on his four-seamer will fall in 2025, bringing Brown to a 22% strikeout rate instead of the 25%+ we’ve seen previously. It feels weird to say that after boasting a 25%+ clip across two full seasons, and I may be undervaluing his deep arsenal, mind for tinkering, and the Astros organization, though the pitches themselves are not nearly as captivating as many other arms entering the year.

Brown is the perfect example of a pitcher I’d like to roster simply because he’s on the Astros and should have volume that doesn’t hurt. However, there are many pitchers that do that and I see Brown as a regression candidate from the 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate (ignore those first three starts, please).

Quick Take: Without a demonstrative legit pitch in his arsenal, I’m skeptical Brown can replicate the stellar 28 game run he displayed after getting bruised by Kansas City. There isn’t a filthy breaker in the mix and his four-seamer + sinker are well spotted but are not elite heaters. It doesn’t add up to another sustainable season of success without growth.

49. Seth Lugo (KCR, RHP)

After such a fantastic sleeper season, I’m impressed that the fantasy crowd does not believe Lugo can dominate for another season. That doesn’t mean he should be ignored in drafts, though. Lugo’s deep pitch mix allowed him to dial back his four-seamer to RHB (it’s easily his worst offering) and favor curves, inside sinkers, sliders, and whatever Uncle Joe has in his kitchen sink instead to great effect. He still has difficulties with LHB (guess what, maybe throw more of that cutter that worked so well inside?) and they should bother him again in 2025, but is that enough to ignore Lugo? I don’t think it is.

The curve still misses bats, walks are a rarity, Kansas City is a great place to pitch, and the ERA is highly unlikely to get to a point where you consider dropping Lugo. He’s a safe ratio arm who is clinging onto his Holly title, hoping to showcase another 22%+ strikeout season to do so. He’ll help for the full season and that’s typically hard to find past pick 150 ADP. Yeesh, there is so much SP depth this year.

Quick Take: We all know regression is coming after Lugo’s miraculous 2024 campaign, but his deep arsenal, which includes a whiff-heavy curveball, should return a productive and reliable starter for the full year. Consider Lugo for a stable foundation if you’ve chased riskier starters earlier in our drafts.

50. Reynaldo López (ATL, RHP)

Reynaldo’s transition to the bullpen went far better than any of us could have dreamed of with a 1.99 ERA across 133+ frames. And yet no one wants him for 2025. It’s weird right? I’m not saying I disagree, it’s just weird. It’s the least heralded sub 2.00 ERA season I may have ever seen. But the luck! Yeah yeah yeah, he got super lucky. ReyLó held an 87% LOB rate across the year that is obviously set to regress, but it’s more than that. His success with a four-seamer that carried an 8% SwStr rate paired with a slider thrown 30% of the time at a 57% strike rate is breaking my brain. A sub 8% walk rate?! Really?! Yes, there’s a curveball in the mix 11% of the time as well at a 60% strike rate, but hot dang is this not sustainable.

I should also mention the 0.66 HR/9 that is sure to climb across more innings, though I will push back on those expecting López to get hurt during the year. He hit the IL with shoulder inflammation and upon returning after a very short 25 pitch debut, he gave us a surprise gift of 6 IP with 9 Ks right before the season ended. He’s also on a winning club who will let him go six frames, even if they will prevent him from pitching twice in one week. I think Reynaldo will be an arm who will help teams, just not a super stud akin to last year’s performance.

Quick Take: I don’t hate López for fantasy squads this year. His slider is still great even at a low strike rate and his four-seamer finds strikes surprisingly well. However, home runs should find him more often, walks are likely to rise without a slider adjustment, and the ERA/WHIP are sure to get close to uncomfortable levels. Take a chance if he falls enough, but don’t rely on this working for a second time.

51. Shane Baz (TBR, RHP)

2024 gave us the return of Baz, who wasn’t nearly as explosive as his 2021 debut. The four-seamer was steeper and failed to earn whiffs galore, while the slider lost over 200 rpm of spin (the heater and curve did not), leading to a dramatic reduction of his SwStr rate from 20-25% to a pedestrian 11% clip. The pitch’s ineffectiveness led to Baz embracing his curveball across his final seven games, which was brilliant, to say the least. The hook was a reliable strike offering to both LHB and RHB, tunneling with Baz’s high four-seamer to consistently land at the bottom of the zone and below it.

The hope is for Baz to retain the fastball/curve approach for 2025 while working to get his slider back on track. It may be too idealistic to believe Baz will have the same feel for his hook in the upcoming year, while it’s a tall ask for a pitcher to overhaul his favorite breaker and regain 200+ RPM of spin.

One overlooked skill is Baz’s consistency. I place his command a decisive tier above Bradley and Pepiot, which makes me optimistic he can find a better third option than the lagging slider or the middling changeup against LHB, though the 22% strikeout rate of last season could be a regularity if the slider doesn’t return to form.

At the very least, expect the Rays to use Baz regularly every five days, even with his 80 IP workload in 2024 – he’s rehabbed long enough and the Rays need innings from Baz in the year ahead. With regular starts on the horizon for the first time in his career, Baz has a chance to blossom into a reliable stud, even if the hope for a 30% strikeout rate may be out of the picture.

Quick Take: The foundation of command and a strong fastball + curve create a relevant floor while there’s plenty of room to grow outside of his fastball/breaker mix. Though he may not be a true 180 IP workhorse, 150 IP with solid ratios and at least a strikeout per inning is very much a possibility.

52. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI, LHP)

I’ll make this one quick. Sánchez is a southpaw with a fantastic changeup, a sinker/slider that destroys LHB (thank you so much for going inside with the sinker in 2024!) and desperately needs one more pitch to face off against RHB with his sinker getting torched for a 46% ICR + the slider often finds a little too much of the zone.

I have good news for this highly efficient starter primed for 12+ Wins: He’s working on a new pitch that is likely a new version of the cutter he threw three times in his first two games last year…then never again. Hurl that 87/88 mph pitch inside to RHB, then go sinker/changeup away and you’ve got yourself a potential 23%+ strikeout arm who can go seven frames with good ratios. But he had a 1.24 WHIP last year! The fella had a fantastic walk rate, that WHIP was a product of a 9.0 hit-per-nine due to that dang sinker getting punished by RHB. He’s right there y’all. Go get him while people still think he’s a high WHIP, low strikeout arm.

Quick Take: Sánchez has an elite changeup and already takes down LHB. He just needs to figure out a way to get away from his sinker to RHB and I’m expecting an adjustment to come somewhere (maybe a new cutter?) to help Sánchez lower his hit rate and turn into a Holly overnight. At worst, it’s a good Win rate and ERA with a poor WHIP. I’ll take my chances.

53. Ronel Blanco (HOU, RHP)

It was all kinds of fun watching Blanco dominate at the beginning of the year. A no-hitter to his name as a 30-year-old finally getting a proper shot was the traditional story baseball is made for and sadly, it seems we all viewed Blanco’s rise to stardom as a one-hit-wonder. (You said it was a no-hit game. Please, not now.) Last year’s big surprise was the changeup’s evolution into a major facet of his approach, allowing him to keep away his four-seamer a bit more and paving the way for his elite slider. I’m not counting out the slowball for another year, which fortunately prevents Blanco from breaking the Huascar Rule. Phew.

Consider Blanco near the end of your drafts. He’s likely to face the Mets, Twins, Angels, and Cardinals out of the gate and that seems like a good arm near the backend of your rotation. He’ll get you Wins, likely a fair number of strikeouts, and tell us early on if he’s capable of producing at the level of a Holly for your 12-teamers. The price is right where he doesn’t have to be your SP #4, and with his LOB rate and BABIP normalizing, you may see a WHIP closer to 1.20 and an ERA fighting to stay closer to 3.00 than 4.00, but I’d take a shot. There’s enough value in his strikeout ability and Win potential to make this work.

Quick Take: He’s sure to allow far more hits (6.1 hits-per-nine is absurdly low and unsustainable) and strand fewer runners, though his slider and changeup are good enough to keep strikeouts flowing. Merged with a high Win potential and a long leash on the Astros, Blanco is worth a mid-to-late round pick to mix alongside volatile fliers.

54. Jeffrey Springs (ATH, LHP)

Springs’ changeup is still fantastic with a 15″ drop relative to his four-seamer, destroying RHB with ease, especially when he keeps it down. The heater is a susceptible pitch, though, sitting roughly 90/91 mph with decent vert that may be diminished outside Tropicana Field. The one-two punch is supplemented by a slider that effectively lands back-door for called strikes and it lays the ground-work for potential strikeout explosions when the slowball is cooking and his four-seamer stays away from the heart of the plate.

The bigger question has been against LHB, where Springs is still working on his breakers. The four-seamer often looks like a meatball, demanding a deadly slider to keep batters from hunting heaters, and Springs has worked on the solution. He returned from TJS last season showcasing an improved slider and a new sweeper (think curve), showing signs of improvement from his 2022 breakout campaign. That said, it’s an awfully small sample size and the heater was still crushed. I have to imagine this is Springs’ biggest focus for 2025.

I would be more interested in Springs’ fantasy value if his four-seamer was a better offering. His command is solid, but starts get decimated quickly with a poorly placed fastball and limits Springs’ ceiling as those blemishes are sure to sprout during the season. Still, even with few innings in 2024, the Athletics are sure to rely on Springs every five days, making for a strong strikeout play and decent Win opportunity (for as long as he’s healthy). With a phenomenal changeup and solid command, Springs should help more than hurt your squads.

Quick Take: It’s one of the better southpaw changeups around and overall strong command that helps mask his terrible four-seamer. It’s possible his slider and sweeper improve to make his moments against LHB digestible, though expect blowups here and there rooted in misplaced heaters. A solid #5 Fantasy SP in 12-teamers as you shouldn’t drop him all season, but elite Top 20 SP potential isn’t there.

55. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX, RHP)

Eovaldi is your standard arm who is seemingly dangling his feet over the cliff of irrelevancy, yet still has enough in the tank to overcome each season. Whether it’s his supposed health risks (29 starts last year!) or declining velocity (still produced at 95 mph!), Eovaldi has consistently gone deep into games and should be expected to again in 2025.

The Rangers defense certainly plays a role and I’m glad to see Eovaldi return for another year. The infield has been at the top of the OAA leaderboard for a few years and should remain that way again, aiding Eovaldi’s climb toward more balls in play off his four-seamer and splitter. However, you should be shocked to see sub-30% ICR marks for both of those pitches against RHB in 2024, first time achievements for each and unlikely to be repeated moving forward.

That regression does scare me. Eovaldi casually threw four-seamers over the plate and let his defense eat them up – a gameplan that doesn’t stick year-to-year as often as I’d like. Meanwhile, the increased splitter usage to nearly 30% against RHB did everything from whiffs to outs to an incredibly efficient putaway rate to keep punchouts flowing despite the increase of efficient outs. It’s hard not to wonder if the rise in splitters had a positive impact on his heater (batters had more hesitation to chase heater), though this feels too generous of a shift.

His LHB opponents had an easier time and it may stay that way again. All three offerings (heater, splitter, cutter) allowed at least 40% ICR marks, with none turning into a 20%+ putaway pitch. Fewer strikeouts equated to more hard hit balls in play and may continue to be a thorn in his side unless the splitter can be the opposite-handed menace it was made to be.

The four-seamer/splitter approach certainly works and the Rangers defense will help. However, the lack of depth in the arsenal does concern me and I don’t believe Eovaldi’s heater is nearly as good as its 2024 marks suggest (mostly against RHB). Expect a solid WHIP and volume marks, though the ERA may be shaky once again…or worse.

Quick Take: Eovaldi struggles with his fastball and cutter against LHB and should be a touch better with his splitter but it may not be enough to stave off likely regression with his outcomes against RHB. The four-seamer/splitter combo may run into more problems in 2025 especially if the defense is worse. Still, Eovaldi is a Holly you’ll regularly slot into your lineup and there’s always value in productive volume.

We’ve hit the cliff. The point in your drafts when you shouldn’t expect to hold onto an SP all season long. That means you should be shifting your focus to the highest sustainable ceiling arms, specifically ones who you can make a quick decision on during the opening weeks or even before the season starts.

56. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, RHP)

I’m making the “Pasta Pirate” one of my targets once I have 4-5 established starters in my 12-team leagues. Arrighetti has an array of green flags that make him a prime arm to chase out of the gate if his draft cost allows him to be dropped should the worst case scenario appear.

It starts with an incredibly flat four-seamer (97th percentile HAVAA!) and 7.2 feet of extension (95th percentile!) at 94 mph, which wasn’t spotted particularly well last year, but could benefit greatly from a focus inside to RHB to embrace its exceptional horizontal bend early in counts and thrown upstairs in two-strike counts. At 41% usage last year against RHB, he could dial it back to 25-30% (early for a quick out or as a putaway offering) and rely on the secondaries far more often.

Because hot dang, I like those secondaries. Arrighetti has flexed four different options, three appearing against RHB – a cutter for strikes (76% strikes) and a hook + sweeper for whiffs (18%+ SwStr each). I’m a huge fan of that and hope to see the curveball get a little more action than 14% usage next year. The sweeper takes a backseat against LHB in favor of more curves and a spotty changeup that could get the axe entering this year, with the cutter stealing the show with a blissful 62% STR-ICR rate (league average is 49% on cutters!).

All of that is to say he has a wide array of options merged with whiffs on a winning team that will have him go every five days, giving him a path to a potential 170+ inning season. His horrific 2024 ratios mask a phenomenal run of 14 games to end the year once he got comfortable in the majors, returning a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 29% strikeout rate across his final 76 frames. He has all the things you want, the last ingredient is the standard sprinkle of development we normally see in a sophomore year.

Quick Take: Arrighetti has legit strikeout ability and after finding his footing in the majors in the second half, and he has the makings of a proper breakout with regular starts for the Astros. The strikeout explosions may be less frequent without the 30%+ putaway rate on his curve, but the full arsenal suggests production even if it comes with fewer strikeouts.

57. Dustin May (LAD, RHP)

He’s back! FINALLY! And y’all better pay attention. If May gets the gig (he doesn’t have any minor league options left!), I absolutely adore him for this year. He throws super hard sinkers with absurd horizontal break that completely wreck RHB. As they should, jutting inside viciously and returning stupid low ICR marks at 97+ mph. He’s made to go 6+ frames with ease based on that sinker alone, but he’s also flexed strikeout upside on the back of a 93 mph cutter and 86 mph curveball. As long as he’s actually healthy now post TJS and esophagus surgery (yep), this season should mark the beginning of him getting into rhythm to be a legit arm in the majors.

Sure, I do wish he had a little more whiffability and a changeup to go under the sinker for LHB, but give it time. The foundation is too good. I’m expecting the Dodgers to go with May or Miller out of camp and whoever it is, I want them on my teams.

Quick Take: If May gets the SP #5 job out of camp, I’m grabbing him everywhere I can. His 97+ mph sinker was a destroyer of bats and he was just beginning to achieve the potential whiffability in his 93 mph cutter and 86 mph curve. It’s all there, he just needs innings.

58. Gavin Williams (CLE, RHP)

Gavin is the perfect example of a pitcher who is on the verge of success without the obvious signs. The man has struggled with control throughout his career, dealt with an arm injury for the first half of 2023, and has yet to display the legit upside we envisioned when he first arrived. I love using Williams as a way to showcase why we shouldn’t use high-level stats and call it a day (ERA, WHIP, K%, BB%, SwStr%, H/9, HOTEL stats), but instead, recognize what causes those stats and see what could change in the year ahead. The solution is looking at the pitcher’s repertoire on its own and connecting the dots with specific stats.

Nick, is this going to be a mini-article inside a random pitcher’s blurb? You betcha. Strap in for the longest blurb in this article.

What stats affect those high-level stats the most? Let’s go one by one and you’ll quickly see how obvious this is:

K% = SwStr% + PAR% (putaway rate). It’s shocking how easy it is to figure out strikeout trends of a pitcher just based on “Oh, his changeup dropped ten points in putaway rate”. Sometimes guys are just less efficient with a pitch in two strike counts more than usual. You need to have pitches that are thrown often enough and get whiffs, too, of course.

BB% = Strike%. If he throws lots of pitches with poor strike rates, he’s gonna walk more batters.

H/9 & BABIP = ICR% + GB% / FB% (and team defense, don’t ignore it!). ICR = Ideal Contact Rate, which is all contact that is good for hitters, not just Hard Hit% and Barrel%. In addition, grounders are going to allow more hits than flyballs, which raise H/9, but does increase HR rates. Team Defense will help understand large differences between ICR vs. BABIP, too.

WHIP = Strike% and ICR%. It’s walks and hits, you can include team defense and GB/FB% too.

LOB Rate = Generally lower if he limits HRs, has a suppressed H/9, and strikes out lots of batters. It makes sense – if you’re a dope pitcher, you’re not gonna allow multiple hits back-to-back as much as others.

HR rates = FB% + Mistakes over the plate with either poor breaking balls or fastballs with poor shape. It’s the least sticky of the lot which means…

ERA = All of it together and not as sticky as we’d like given the impact of HRs. Womp womp.

Take all of that in. You can track all of these things inside the Repertoire section of our player pages and I highly recommend you do so with Gavin as a primer. Now let’s walk through his page and I’ll showcase what I see that gets me excited for Gavin.

The first thing I do? Toggle the L/R split, switch to “All” to view all pitches, and see what he throws against RHB. For Gavin, he throws a four-seamer with a high strike rate, a low SwStr Rate, and high ICR. That’s a bit odd since his four-seamer is really good. It sat 96/97 mph with over seven feet of extension, and as we’ve seen with Garrett Crochet, if you have high velocity with elite extension and sit inside the zone, you can dominate without good movement or attack angle.

Well, what else does Gavin throw? AH. Two pitches, a curveball and cutter, combined for 30% usage (that’s a lot!) with the same horrible strike rate of 53.4%. Welp, there’s your walk problem and your four-seamer inefficiency problem. Batters aren’t challenged with another offering inside the zone, leading them to sit on the heater. But then why do both the cutter and curveball have 40%+ ICR rates if they aren’t sitting on them? Good question. Looking at their strike zone plots below, you can see how the ones that made it into the zone were hung in the middle of the plate. Not great.

The slider does look promising, though. Fewer misses over the plate, 62% strike rate, and a fantastic ICR%, though the SwStr rate is a bit soft. Possibly because he kept it in the zone 45% of the time instead of escaping off the plate, or maybe because it’s not the filthiest pitch out there. At any rate, it seems that Gavin needs to move away from the curve’s heavy usage and shift to more sliders or cutters…if he can stop tugging the dang cutter off the plate. With more of these secondaries keeping batters honest, the four-seamer should also improve, lowering the walk and hit rates.

Let’s move to LHB now. Ayyyy this ain’t so bad! Sure, the curve is still featured way too often (22% usage at another dumb 56% strike rate doesn’t help with walks), but 70%+ strikes with both the four-seamer and cutter?! Legit SwStr rates on both?! Sub 30% ICRs?! Ummmm, that’s the good stuff. Clearly, Gavin should be moving toward a four-seamer/cutter approach and save the curve for the rare two-strike offering and not try to throw it early and risk of getting behind too many batters.

And there you go. The fact that Gavin doesn’t struggle with earning strikes with his four-seamer and has at least one secondary earning strikes against both LHB and RHB has me optimistic that he can improve his walk rate moving forward. His elite mix of velocity and extension is a fantastic foundation and there’s a clear path toward growth in his approach that can grant better results across the board.

You didn’t talk about putaway rates. Oh right! Go to “Count” and take a look at PAR all the way on the right. Notice anything weird? If you select a single pitch type, you’ll see the percentiles for every stat for that pitch type (for LHB & RHB, not the split, FWIW). Gavin’s four-seamer putaway rate was horrible to both LHB and RHB and with a pitch of its caliber, that should rise dramatically should he improve the supporting cast. The man isn’t destined to be a 24% strikeout arm.

I hope that helped y’all understand the process a bit better and feel free to chat more about it during my office hours in the morning via playback.tv/pitcherlist or inside our PL+ Discord.

BACK TO THE ACTUAL RANKING STUFF. Gavin is going past the 200th pick in drafts and I’m so excited to take a shot on this. We’ll know early in the season if the cutter and/or slider is working and if the curveball is taking a step back to open up his full potential. In addition, don’t forget that 2024 was stunted by his early injury, preventing a normal off-season and spring training. Let the guy cook for the season and it’s safe to expect growth to come as he goes 90+ pitches every five days for a winning club. Go grab the man at a price that won’t affect you if it goes south.

Quick Take: Gavin’s four-seamer is primed for dominance and needs something that isn’t his unreliable curveball to take the next step. With a healthy off-season and routine spring, Gavin has the foundation to come into his own and put up legit 25%+ strikeouts with solid ratios. I’m a huge fan of his entering the year.

59. Bubba Chandler (PIT, RHP)

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There’s a case to be made that Chandler is the #1 SP to target in redraft leagues. The signing of Jack Flaherty added more competition for Jackson Jobe to crack the rotation out of camp, while the Pirates (currently) have Bailey Falter and Johan Oviedo slated as their SP #4 and SP #5. If Chandler appears in camp flexing his mid-to-upper 90s heater with control inside the zone + a dotted slider away to RHB and a lateral changeup away to LHB. This isn’t your WHOA! absurd starter, however Chandler’s command and consistency is refined relative to what we normally see, making me more confident in Chandler to retain 12-teamer value should he get a rotation spot. I see a reliable Holly throughout the year when he arrives given his heavy strike rates and above average fastball & slider. The biggest question is his ability to take down LHB with the changeup (and maybe the slider) and I look forward to seeing him figure it out this year.

Quick Take: Let’s see if this works in 12-teamers. I’ll be less inclined to grab Chandler in deeper formats, though Chandler is the arm you want to target who can provide legit value the moment he enters the rotation. And the best part? You’ll know before the season starts if you can drop him or not.

60. Jackson Jobe (DET, RHP)

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I don’t care for Jobe. YOU TAKE THAT BACK. Sure, he doesn’t have elite vert. Or extension. And didn’t get all the whiffs in the ultra brief look we got of him. But the dude throws hard, has a massive variety of pitches (he’s up to six now!) and profiles out to be a legit arm with velocity and a kitchen sink of filth.

Or not. The situation is simple: If he earns a spot on the rotation, you dang well better draft the guy. If he doesn’t, I imagine the Tigers will keep him in the minors until May or so, possibly saving bullets and stretching him out slowly so he can be ready when he appears. I’m not the biggest fan of stashing him across that time – April rosters spots are valuable yo! – but I’d imagine he’d be a Top 60 SP the moment he arrives. Do what you like with that information, I’m going to suggest you draft him now and possibly drop if he doesn’t make the rotation out of camp. Cool? Cool.

Quick Take: Jobe didn’t have as ultra dominant of a 2024 as we expected throughout the minors, but if he’s deserving of a roster spot out of camp, you dang well better take the flamethrower on your fantasy teams.