Top 400 Starting Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball 2025 – SP Rankings 101-125

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Tier 14 – Okay You’re Actually A Toby

Oh hey, it’s actually the Toby tier. I don’t anticipate a 25% strikeout rate nor the greatest ratios, but I’m sure at least one of these will hit in the ratio department as they have their peak season. I don’t draft these types but I’m totally fine picking them up in season.

101. David Peterson (NYM, LHP)

Update 2/17: With Montas’ injury, Peterson should be locked into a rotation spot.

Soooo, this is simple. Peterson had a near 30% strikeout rate and sub 5% walk rate last year–What, no he didn’t!–against LHB. Oh. That means…Yeah. 16.5% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate against RHB. The performance against LHB is somewhat believable, though we should expect his 24% SwStr rate and 31% putaway rate on his four-seamer to come down, even if he was magnificent placing the pitch at the top of the zone, exploiting his elite 7.1 feet of extension to feature the four-seamer as a surprise pitch off his sinker. That sinker did an excellent job jamming LHB and letting his elite slider do the rest with a near 20% SwStr rate. In fact, all three of these pitches returned a putaway rate of about 21%, which explains the 30% strikeout rate. Simple.

That’s not the problem, of course. RHB had an easy time with the sinker and the four-seamer wasn’t as pristine, nor as much of a surprise, leading to plenty of hits off both pitches. His slider had its moments as a backfoot breaker, but when it missed, it was demolished. Its 16% mistake rate to RHB is one of the worst in the majors and that can’t happen, David. IT CAN’T HAPPEN.

None of his pitches returned a 20% putaway rate against RHB. Peterson issued six walks to LHB last year while issuing forty to RHB in the same timeframe. Something has to change here and fortunately, there’s a solution. Say it with me y’all: A knuckl–The changeup.

With over seven feet of extension from the left side, Peterson is made to dominate RHB with a changeup. He’s tried heavily and he came close last season but came up a bit short with just a 57% strike rate and paltry 12% SwStr rate. It induced outs and a superb 27% ICR rate, yes, but it has to do more. It has to be the pitch in the same way Ragans, Skubal, and Anderson have silenced RHB over the years. Peterson has tried to do so in previous years and come up short, but if he’s able to figure it out and pair it with his gains against LHB, this could be something real.

The upside is a 25% strikeout arm at a mid 3s ERA with a 1.10/1.15 WHIP. The walks would come down, the hits would come down, and strikeouts would rise from 20% last year. However, if that changeup isn’t there (or we fail to see any gains against RHB), I encourage everyone to move on to other things. He was fortunate last year to carry a 2.91 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP – his HR rate is sure to even out this year – and this will hurt if the changes aren’t made.

Quick Take: You may have a sleeper in Peterson if he can figure out how to take down RHB effectively. His improvements against LHB look mostly legit (the four-seamer won’t perform that well again) and there is a path toward legitimacy if the changeup can step forward. That extension, y’all.

102. Ranger Suárez (PHI, LHP)

Remember when Suárez had a nine-game win streak going in April and May last year? That was cool. His sinker was TOP DOG in that time, destroying LHB inside with the pitch and pairing it with changeups underneath and down for near 30% putaway rates on both. A combo you don’t see a whole lot but Ranger was grooving. RHB were served changeups down and away not as effectively, but still solid, while four-seamers went generally inside and sinkers all over the place. He whipped out the curve over 20% of the time as well to both steal strikes and to finish at-bats and the whole thing was outrageous. The taste of this cuisine was far better than the ingredients swirled in this concoction, but who cared? Ranger was cookin’.

That delicious run lasted sixteen games through June 25th with a 1.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate and even on that final start, you could see the wheels start to come off. His next three games returned 18 ER, then an IL stint, and his return in August and September was tough to watch.

It’s abnormal for me to simply spit out high level stats across a date range and mostly call it a day, but that’s truly what Suárez does. He goes on heaters, squeezing the most out of his arsenal until it fizzles and he struggles to get it back. I’m all for drafting Suárez and starting him at the very least for his first start of the year (SP #3 on Sunday = Nats, SP #4 on Monday = Rockie Road) and seeing where he is. If it’s rough, the Dodgers/Atlanta are next and you can move on. If he looks legit, maybe we hold past that.

Quick Take: Sánchez could come out of camp hot and resemble his April ’24 self, though expectations should be low in your drafts. He gives you Win chances at his floor, just be ready to jump ship the moment this looks suspect. You don’t want to be anywhere near his 6.54 ERA and 1.74 WHIP across the final 11 games of 2024.

103. Michael Wacha (KCR, RHP)

Wacha doesn’t get enough love for three straight seasons of sub 3.40 ERAs and sub 1.20 WHIPs – probably because he doesn’t wow us with legit velocity or big breaking balls. Nay, he does it the Hoffman way – absurd changeup after absurd changeup.

I’ll continue to have some skepticism that he can stave off LHB for a full season, but alas, the man finds a way to weave his variety of offerings around the zone all in an effort to get back to the changeup and take em down. I don’t think I’ve seen a pitch used over 25% of the time to both LHB and RHB return a 27% ICR or lower with strike rates above 66%. It really is that good.

Wacha is the perfect Toby. He’s unlikely to flirt with a 25% strikeout rate (possibly sit at 20% again), but he suppresses home runs and generally walks few enough batters to not let an elevated hits per 9 like last year’s 8.3 clip turn into an inflated WHIP. You’ll be bored along the way and consider dropping him plenty, but those in 15-teamers and deeper will set and forget. He’s set up for a date against the Guardians as the SP #3 on opening weekend and you may want to snag him just for that game before chasing a flier who starts one of the next two days.

Quick Take: Wacha is a safe Toby for 12-teamers rooted in one of the best right-handed changeups in the bigs. Don’t expect strikeouts and you’re bound to get bored and uneasy with him on your squad, but you’re allowed to move on if he isn’t cutting it. A Toby in all respects.

104. Justin Verlander (SFG, RHP)

It seems we are all on the same page that Verlander isn’t close to his former self. But is he cooked? If you mean a dry brine, then yes. There’s still value to be had with Verlander, even if his slider doesn’t get nearly the same number of whiffs that it used to against LHB or RHB. Consider Mr. Junior Varsity a Toby for your leagues – he won’t get you a strikeout north of 20%, but he’ll go deep for the Giants constantly with generally productive ratios and a fair number of Wins.

The other aspect to consider is Verlander’s own ego. There is no world where Verlander is showing up just for a paycheck. If he’s lost it, he won’t continue and slog innings with a 5.00+ ERA for an entire season. He still wants to show he has something left in the tank and if that’s gone, well, he gone. You may want to take a shot on Verlander for the Sunday game of opening week against the Reds in Cincy as a stream and take it from there. You’ll be able to drop Verlander for a SP #4/5 after that game if it doesn’t look pretty.

Quick Take: Verlander should be a solid 15-teamer player simply as a pitcher who will find his way through six frames more often than others, even if it doesn’t come with the same slider that propelled a strikeout rate comfortably above 20%. In 12-teamers, he’s a potential Toby who could help teams get through the early weeks, but unlikely to be much more.

105. Cody Bradford (TEX, LHP)

I have a soft spot for Bradford. He’s your standard crafty southpaw who gets overlooked due to low velocity at just 90 mph (let’s give it to him), though his elite seven feet of extension and 16-17″ of iVB in concert with his fantastic command to both LHB and RHB (it could be slightly better to RHB) allow the pitch to be the proper setup for his excellent changeup. No joke, this is a 93rd percentile changeup that could be even better in the year ahead if he can get the pitch down a bit more often. Respect the slowball. But not the fastball? Yeaaaah, it allowed 5 HR to RHB last year and is likely to be a cause of more pain in 2024. The 4% walk rate is elite, though it may be beneficial for Bradford to lower the zone rate on his heater from 53% down to sub 50% levels and sacrifice a few more walks along the way. Nibble like my 2nd grade class gerbil, Nibble. You said Nibble twice. Nah, that was her name. We were smart kids.

Against LHB, there is room to improve with Bradford’s slider nipping too much of the plate while also having a lack of sparkle, though his fastball hovered the edges beautifully and his changeup still made constant appearances. Mixed with the elite Rangers defense, Bradford was able to go 6+ IP in nine of eleven starts after his season debut on the bump. Yes, that should get you interested, especially in deeper formats. While I don’t believe in chasing potential Holly arms inside drafts, I may make an exception for Bradford if I felt I had too much risk in my lineup. That said, the Red Sox come to Arlington to kick off the year and I may want to leave Cody as a potential waiver wire addition if our early fliers don’t pan out. He’s most likely a Toby at the end of the day

Quick Take: Bradford’s elite extension from the left side amplifies an elite changeup, opening the door for his 90 mph fastball to work when he commands the edges. There’s work to be done with the slider and the prone heater limits his ceiling, though the Rangers defense is sure to help him find the sixth frame constantly. A solid 15-teamer addition and borderline 12-teamer play as a Toby who has a chance to be a little more.

106. Nick Martinez (CIN, RHP)

Those of y’all who didn’t abandon your leagues for football (Gasp!) in July will remember Martinez’s fantastic performance once he became a starter in early August – 2.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22% K rate, 3% BB rate across 63.1 IP and 11 starts. It was a “league winner” type run and you may be inclined to chase it again.

I originally thought I’d be out and I still may be for 12-teamers (Don’t draft Tobys y’all), but I see how this works. I adore Martinez’s command and ability to work many pitches into his mix, even if he lacks an overpowering heater or whiff-heavy breaker. The sinker jams RHB consistently, the four-seamer is often saved for two-strike counts up (with 17-18″ of vert!) against RHB (please save it more, the extension and HAVAA at 92/93 mph is troubling), and his changeup is a massive success against both LHB and RHB.

The real question is his cutter and slider. Neither has formed into a reliable whiff pitch, while the cutter is used as a strike offering over the plate that I wish did a bit more. The changeup is gorgeous and needs to be relied upon heavily to keep batters honest (a little more, to be honest), but if Martinez can figure out his slider or cutter to nullify RHB a touch more, then we may see a 1.10/1.15 WHIP season that flirts with a 25% strikeout rate.

I have to express some concern that the Reds have plenty of options for their rotation and Martinez has a history of moving to the pen when needed. Yes, it drives me up the wall as I want to see him get a chance to regularly start to find the groove he deserves to be in, and it may happen once again even if they express that they want him as a starter (they did last off-season, too!). Monitor the situation in the spring and if Martinez is locked into the rotation, keep an eye on him in deeper formats or as a possible Toby/streamer in your shallower leagues.

Quick Take: Martinez still lacks an overpowering heater or whiff-heavy breaker, but the sinker command and elite changeup merged with a deep pitch-mix make a potential ratio-arm with a tinge of upside if the changeup gets more airtime or his slider/cutter takes a step forward. I just wish he weren’t in Cincy…

107. Brayan Bello (BOS, RHP)

Before I begin, note that Bello had shoulder soreness at the start of camp and is delayed. MRI imaging was clean, but it may mean he begins the season on the IL with the Red Sox carrying six starters. No need to rush him, right?

Let’s say Bello were fully healthy, I’d still be a little hesitant. Individually, Bello showcases the skills of a potential Holly with a three-pitch arsenal of sinkers, changeups, and sliders that suggest he can find six frames constantly and rack up a 25% strikeout rate. However, Bello has yet to truly put all three together at the same time. Writing about him last season was a journey of witnessing two of his three pitches working in a given starts and failing to put all the pieces together. I get a sense that he’s not quite the consistent command pitcher we need from a guy who throws sinkers over four-seamers (well, he throws four-seamers upstairs in two-strike counts and it doesn’t work. Womp womp.).

It was frustrating to roster Bello last season and I expect a bit more turmoil this year. His shoulder soreness isn’t a major problem – guys get that all the time in the spring as it’s just a product of warming up the ole soup bone – but if it keeps him out long enough, there goes a smooth spring that would help him find that rhythm we need him to find. I’m not targeting Bello in my 12-teamers but will keep an eye on him if he finds his way to the waiver wire. He’s a great example of a guy with legit potential who is pushed out of 12-teamer drafts due to the massive SP landscape.

Quick Take: Bello’s trio of sinkers, changeups, and sliders have potential, but lack the command and consistency start-to-start to lead Bello to a breakout campaign…for now. I don’t like chasing him in drafts, but 15-teamers may like Bello for the long haul as long as his shoulder soreness doesn’t hold him back long.

108. Luis L. Ortiz (CLE, RHP)

Ortiz’s greatest skillset is his ICR% – none of his four offerings returned a 40% ICR in 2024 – and that could very well continue with the Guardians. I just wish the man earned whiffs with his slider like he used to back in 2022, but alas, he’s not throwing 98+ mph heaters anymore, but sitting 96 mph instead. It turns his slider from Wipeout McGee to Mr. Fine, with its performance against LHB being a major issue – sub 60% strike rate and a 50% ICR. I don’t love chasing Ortiz as a pitch-to-contact arm who can’t eclipse a 20% strikeout rate, though I’m not seeing where we can expect major gains in putaway rate to make a major jump next year, as I’m skeptical his heaters can continue to perform as well next year considering their questionable locations.

Maybe the scenario in Cleveland is more helpful than we’re giving him credit for (well, PNC Park to Progressive Field doesn’t help, but more Wins! Yay!) and he can use his flat attack angle to get more whiffs on the four-seamer…though its extreme sink may counteract it too much to jump past a 13% SwStr rate to RHB.

He’s an interesting flier especially if he’s starting opening weekend and gets to pitch against the Royals followed by the Angels and CrySox. However, if he’s the SP #4 or SP #5? That would be the Padres. I’m not taking the chance there, especially with the realistic ceiling being a high-end Toby.

Quick Take: Ortiz has solid hard contact suppression skills but struggles to rack up strikeouts and doesn’t have a clear path to getting more. He could develop into a Toby on a winning club, making him a solid 15-teamer target, but not the ideal 12-teamer pitcher to target.

109. José Berríos (TOR, RHP)

Berríos, The Great Undulator. Through his first 23 starts of the season, he held a 4.11 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an 18% strikeout rate. You dropped him, as you should have. H*ck, you shouldn’t have drafted this Toby in the first place! But I digress. Berríos proceeded to save his season across his next eight starts, averaging nearly seven frames per start with a 1.51 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate. And then…He messed it up with 6 ER in 3 IP to end the year. What else would you expect from The Great Undulator?

The reason? It’s always the curve. Reductively, it had a 12% swinging-strike rate before the run, then a 20% swinging-strike rate after. The pitch dominates and he’s golden, the pitch is fine and he’s not. There isn’t a legit slider to help, nor an overpowering heater, nor a stupid good sinker even if it jams batters decently well (okay sometimes the changeup helps. SOMETIMES), Berríos lives and dies by that hook, which elects to take vacations throughout the season. It has the best union among all pitch types.

If you’re okay drafting Berríos and letting him sit there with full confidence it’ll all normalize by the end, go ahead. Have a field day. I have to ask, would you have dropped Berríos on August 1st? Or would you have truly believed that he would recover his whole season in the next two months? He is the ultimate Toby who I just don’t want to deal with for the year. You can do better in 12-teamers, but fine, if you must in 15-teamers. I get it, volume is volume.

Quick Take: Berríos is who is always is – a man who fluctuates throughout the season due to an inconsistent curve. When he’s on, he’s on, but it’s awfully hard to endure throughout the course of a full season. You’re better off chasing other options in 12-teamers, while 15-teamers can benefit from high Wins and strikeout totals without the worst ratios.

110. Max Scherzer (TOR, RHP)

Look, don’t break the bank for Scherzer. He only has so much left in the tank, and there’s no expectation for a hefty number of frames this year. The Jays signed him and expect him to be healthy. Despite all the doom and gloom he still had a 1.15 WHIP and 16% swinging-strike rate last year. Sixteen percent! He can still whiff batters! Yes, home runs are likely to come and blah blah blah, Scherzer isn’t completely donezo and the moment he is, I’m willing to wager Scherzer will take himself out. He’s not the kind of guy who would tough out a 5.00+ ERA and 1.40 WHIP season just to get his dollars. He’s too competitive to go through that pain on the mound.

The biggest problem with taking Scherzer with your last pick is his schedule. Well, the entire Blue Jays squad. Their schedule in April is rough, with only their second series of the season against the Nationals (and even that is somewhat questionable. Those young bats could be tough!) and a date hosting Seattle for a few games until May. The Orioles, Mets, Fenway, Orioles, Atlanta, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Guardians all fill up April and I’m struggling to figure out when I want to be testing the waters with Scherzer.

So FINE. I’m out on Scherzer with those matchups. But hot dang, it feels like we’re overlooking this guy a little bit, no? If he’s still starting in May without signs of degradation, I wouldn’t be shocked. His slider had a 30% swinging-strike rate to RHB last year. THIRTY PERCENT. There’s still some juice in the box.

Quick Take: I’m out on Scherzer in 12-team drafts simply because of a rocky April schedule, though Scherzer still has the ability to miss bats at his old age. Ignoring injury risk (who cares, he’s a super late pick!), I imagine Scherzer can provide value once the schedule eases.

111. Chris Bassitt (TOR, RHP)

We all be undervaluing Bassitt. It was a horrible 2024 season as his WHIP shot from a consistent sub 1.20 clip to 1.46 across 171 innings, which doesn’t get much better at a 1.42 WHIP if you want to remove his first two starts. But don’t fret! There are a few signs quickly that Bassitt didn’t deserve this and he could normalize last season. For starters, his fifth percentile BABIP does not match his 54th percentile ICR rate, which suggests his 9+ hits per nine, after seasons comfortably under eight, can correct itself.

But where did that come from? It sure wasn’t against RHB…kinda. Bassitt did everything right to limit hard contact but despite a sub-30% ICR on his sinker, the pitch returned a .359 BABIP, which is all kinds of dumb. The previous high had been .300 on the dot back in 2020. That ain’t right.

The culprits were left-handed batters. Hoooo boy did Bassitt struggle against them. The curveball was less effective than its 2023 counterpart with its putaway rate nearly cut in half from 21% to 10/11%, while setting a career-high 47.6% ICR, raising 14 points from last year’s mark.

That wasn’t the real problem, though. That sinker was, um, destroyed. For a pitch with a 40% ICR across the previous two seasons, it jumped to 58% ICR with a .449 BABIP (kinda deserved…) and it took a moment to understand why. Batters swung just as often as they did last year but suddenly made far more O-Contact, as if ready for the pitch and still hitting it well even outside the zone. In addition, Bassitt went front-hip sinker less often, resulting in a huge called-strike drop from 30% in 2022 to 24% in 2025.

To make matters worse, the cutter’s strike rate plummeted as he kept missing the pitch too high out of the zone. What was once a reliable pitch to LHB at a 67% strike rate became 59% overnight, catalyzed by a declining zone rate of 53% in 2022 all the way to 38% in 2024. Fewer cutter strikes led to easier at-bats for LHB to seek out the sinker. SIMPLE.

The book is seemingly out on Bassitt and he has to adjust. Get the cutter back to its reliable offering, finagle the sinker back over the plate for more called strikes, and figure out how to make that curve more reliable for punchouts. The good news? Bassitt still has a hold on RHB, the batters he faces most commonly. This was a combination of poor luck and a regression in skill that can be correct on both ends. Don’t count out Bassitt as a possible Toby in your 12-teamers and a value play in 15-teamers. And look, you can just drop him if it’s still terrible, okay?

Quick Take: Poor luck merged with struggles against LHB created the disaster of 2024, but it’s not unsalvage for the future. There is a window of opportunity for Bassitt to return to his level of safety for fantasy managers and he’s worth the gamble late in 15-team drafts. Shallower formats can take the chance, but they may want to wait a start or two first.

112. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI, LHP)

Are y’all okay if I just say I don’t want to deal with Erod? I generally want to raise Arizona starters up based on their defense (even without Walker) and can see a strong argument that Erod didn’t have a normal off-season in 2024 and should be the man the Diamondbacks signed him to be this year. On the other hand, his changeup strike rates are not what they need to be, his feel for spin is meh, the sinker doesn’t jam LHB, and I don’t think he can sneak four-seamers backdoor to LHB forever.

An odd skill is Erod’s refusal to walk more or fewer batters than 8% each season, which makes his WHIP dependent on his H/9 each season. He was unlucky for a 10+ last year and that mark should come down, but will it come far enough not to drag down your 12-teamers? What about 15-teamers? His days of 23%+ strikeout rates are likely in the past, too, and I’m not interested in the inefficient arm unless he’s on a hot stretch and sitting on the wire. Maybe if he comes out of camp hurling bullets we can steal a few Wins n’ whatnot, but even in Quality Start leagues, I’m not sure he can do much better than a 50% QS rate.

Quick Take: There is a glimmer of hope that Rodriguez can find a groove now that he has a healthy off-season and regular ramp-up, but he’s displayed volatility across his career. The changeup doesn’t dominate, the four-seamer and sinker have moments before getting smack, and his cutter/slider fails to instill fear to LHB. Take an early flier in deeper leagues and hold off in 12-teamers.

113. Luis Severino (ATH, RHP)

It was a weird time watching Severino transition from the textbook four-seamer arsenal (powerful heater up, slider and changeup down) to a sinker/sweeper vs RHB and a whole lot of “Uhhhh” against LHB. The former combo was incredibly effective as he jammed RHB constantly with sinkers to return a near 40% O-Swing, allowing his four-seamer to overperform away for a 6% SwStr rate and 72% strike rate despite a horrible 4.83 PLV (read: Poor shape and made better by the sinker/sweeper). The breaker was saved more as the two-strike offering and excelled with a 26% putaway rate, while reducing damage when hit into play.

There are concerns about the stark arm-angle difference of the sweeper and four-seamer that may be more apparent across another season, while the efficacy of the sweeper earning strikeouts may fall and Severino’s sinker precision could take a step back. These possible regressions would put more weight on his LHB approach, which needs heavy refinement.

Sinkers and sweepers are traditionally worse against opposite-handed batters and while the latter had far more success than expected (23% ICR?!), it was featured under 15% of the time. The four-seamer was the focus and it performed admirably, but not exceptionally, while the changeup, cutter, sinker, and slider all failed to be a proper complement. Severino needs the changeup or cutter to improve in 2025 or it will be a rough time.

Volume will be on Severino’s side and it’s certainly possible he finds success against RHB for a second year in a row. There are signs for decline, though, and his struggles against LHB are likely to be replicated in a questionable team environment. You should be chasing something else in your 12-teamers (even if you are tempted to stream opening weekend against the Mariners…) while I can see him as a back-end option in 15-teamers.

Quick Take: The sinker/sweeper could repeat for success against RHB, though his struggles against LHB are likely sticking for another year. The overall sum isn’t elite if all goes well with Severino’s biggest draw coming from reliable starts every five days with a handful of strikeouts and average Win potential.

114. Jameson Taillon (CHC, RHP)

115. Ben Brown (CHC, RHP)

I hate to be the one to splash cold water on Brown, but what we’ve seen so far is not a starter ready to dominate your leagues. His four-seamer sat 96 mph as a reliever and while it had good extension, its vert and HAVAA are not ideal, nor is his ability to locate the fastball, resulting in a 4.1% SwStr rate against RHB. That’s horrid. Its 55%+ ICR against RHB shouldn’t be a surprise to complement that SwStr rate, and while it performed better against LHB, I have little confidence it’ll be a great pitch for him in 2025.

The “curve” is the star of the show. It acts more like a slider at a whopping 86 mph, and his ability to locate it down-and-away propelled a 30% SwStr rate and 38% putaway rate against RHB. Ahhh, that’s why he had a 29% strikeout rate. It was still strong against LHB, even if it was demolished when hung over the plate, and it’s the sole reason Brown is an exciting name.

That said, he needs a third pitch. I don’t see a reliable starter with that knuckle-curve and mediocre four-seamer. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t focusing on a cutter this winter to bridge the gap inside the zone and take advantage of the extension he has, and if I see it used frequently in the spring, I may change my tune in a hurry. A cutter would keep batters off the heater, earn more strikes, and allow him to set up the curve more often to LHB. But will it happen? And if he does, will the Cubs let him start regularly? I’m not sure, nor do I know if a new cutter nullifies his four-seamer command problems enough. Keep an eye on it.

Quick Take: The current version of Brown with just two pitches and a questionable fastball does not outline a starter you should target for drafts. However, if he learns a high-80s cutter and flexes it during the spring, Brown becomes a solid late round flier. His knuckle-curve is elite and needs a pitch outside his four-seamer to set the table.

116. Tony Gonsolin (LAD, RHP)

Alright Gonsolin, we had a bit of thing way back when before you got TJS and I swear, if you take this rotation spot instead of May or Miller, THE FEUD WILL RETURN. I am curious if Gonsolin will showcase something new this time around or if it’ll still be a whole lot of splitters with a slider that can work super well at times. What about the four-seamer? It exists at 92/93 mph. I’m still concerned the splitter will fade and the four-seamer will look naked over the plate, but let’s see what he’s got in the spring. If it happens to be Gonsolin in the rotation, there’s value to be had. Wins are cool, y’all.

Quick Take: I expect May or Miller to get the fifth spot in the Dodgers rotation, but if Gonsolin finds a way to get regular starts, he could be a Toby simply for Wins. He’ll need to have his splitter of old or at least the best version of his slider if he hopes to survive, though. That fastball has never been good.

117. Tylor Megill (NYM, RHP)

I felt like we saw the light at the start of 2022 with TyLord Megill appearing and what we’ve seen since is a poorly spotted four-seamer without any development in his secondary pitches. The four-seamer should be an effective offering, but its 44-48% ICR against LHB and RHB takes its toll, even if the pitch can generate whiffs at a 14% clip. There’s simply no pitch to support it – the slider and cutter either miss well out of the zone or float over the plate. The changeup…it doesn’t exist.

That was the case until August 30th of last year. Megill got the chance to start with Blackburn’s back burning him and he showed us something new. A sinker to RHB. It was glorious – 76% strikes with a 25% ICR and over 50% O-Swing as he featured it 33% of all pitches to RHB – showcasing a new Megill who could earn whiffs with his four-seamer as a surprise upstairs. Sure, he still had wonky four-seamer locations, but a 17% SwStr to RHB with his four-seamer? Now that’s good stuff!

There’s still a question against left-handers and I’m not sure what to do there, but you know what’s kinda hilarious? Megill has 95/96 mph velocity with 98th percentile extension (7.5 feet!) that speaks to an elite heater but his four-seamer has dead-zone movement and gets hit hard…like Logan Gilbert’s four-seamer. Yep. The comp you never saw coming. The difference here is Gilbert’s slider – it was the #1 ranked PLV slider in the bigs – that sits 3-4 ticks higher than Megill’s and has six inches more drop than Megill’s similarly hard cutter. So, there’s your answer Megill. Just figure out how to get more drop on your cutter and throw that thing incessantly. I know that feels like a joke, but if Megill can figure out how to throw a strong 88 mph cutter/slider for strikes down and in town, there’s legit upside here. You just don’t find 95/96 mph with 7.5 feet of extension often, y’all.

Quick Take: I am once again asking you to keep your eye on Tylor(d) Megill. If he shows up to camp embracing the sinker inside to RHB and an improved cutter or slider, he could take a leap in a heartbeat. His velocity and extension grant him the foundation for more if he unlocks that final piece.

118. Ryan Weathers (MIA, LHP)

I came into this thinking I wouldn’t be all too interested in Weathers and now I’m…kinda in? His changeup improved against RHB with a 20% SwStr rate, while the four-seamer and sinker were spotted well on opposite sides of the plate. Meanwhile, the sinker shows a ton of promise against LHB and it displays a path toward success as a regular starter for the Marlins.

Well, if his breaking ball gets better. It held a 52% strike rate to both LHB and RHB, with the pitch being thrown far too often against the latter and executed poorly against the former. As a changeup-first arm, Weathers needs to figure out his breaker against LHB specifically as the changeup can’t become a 30%+ usage pitch and demand success.

Those are the two areas of focus for Weathers – sinkers against LHB + improved breaker vs. both LHB and RHB. Velocity may come and go (96 mph four-seamers in September, but 94/95 on the sinker – we care more about the sinker), but the focus should be on the approach more than anything. I wonder what we’ll get in camp.

Quick Take: Weathers needs an improved breaking ball and to embrace his sinker against LHB while replicating his success with his four-seamer inside to RHB in the coming year. It’s not out of the question and with a strong changeup to nullify RHB (with room to grow!), Weathers may take full advantage of his security inside the Marlins rotation – especially after losing over 20 pounds this off-season.

119. Rhett Lowder (CIN, RHP)

I wasn’t a fan of Lowder when he made his 2024 debut. His six starts returned a sparkling 1.17 ERA, but a sub 20% strikeout rate and 1.27 WHIP is highly suspect, and it’s due to his questionable arsenal. Lowder’s sinker/slider focus isn’t the typical path toward fantasy prominence, though his sinker carries a great two-plane break with solid command, while his slider is a comfortable strike pitch, even if it lacks massive whiff potential. His four-seamer’s sub 50% strike rate can be explained by its near exclusive usage in two-strike counts (he missed a bit too far up in his small sample), though the pitch is at the bottom of stuff rankings and should continue to be reserved as a surprise pitch.

As a sinker/slider arm, Lowder’s glaring hole is a weapon against LHB, which could be the changeup that was spotted just off the plate constantly last year. I can see Lowder take shape as a Toby in 12-teamers across the year with his ability to find strikes and potential gains with his changeup, but without a whiff-heavy slider against RHB, the ceiling is too limited to target in drafts save for 15-teamers and beyond…assuming he makes the rotation out of camp, of course.

Quick Take: The sinker/slider works, even if it doesn’t come with whiffs. If the changeup comes together and Lowder improves his precision in two-strike counts with both the slider and four-seamer to RHB, he could become a Toby arm, with slight Holly potential. Too much of a leap is needed to bank on that in 2025 drafts, though.

120. Zebby Matthews (MIN, RHP)

I’m awfully conflicted. When I first saw Zebby and tracked him in the minors, I saw a 95+ heater with good movement with a whiff heavy slider, bridge cutter, curve and change on the fringe, and legit command. What we got after was…different. His heater does have solid two-plane movement, but not so much and was left over the middle of the plate a ton, his slider was tugged way out of the zone to RHB (60% strike rate) and often ignored + was left well in the zone frequently to LHB, and his cutter didn’t get far enough inside to prevent damage.

It mapped out a Toby in progress who could jump into the land of Holly if he’s able to get more consistency on the slider to RHB and possibly figure out the curve or change to LHB (and cutter too, while you’re at it). The Twins may be best throwing him into the fire of the bigs and helping him figure it out as he goes, but my guess is Zebby heads to Triple-A with Paddack and Festa taking the rotation spots. It makes sense given his struggles after his first few starts and I’m looking forward to seeing him again this year. Pay attention in the spring to see if he’s improved any of his arsenal and forcing the Twins to add him to the rotation right away.

Quick Take: Zebby still has a bit of work to do with his approach and nailing down his command. His slider shows promise, while the four-seamer and cutter can work well if he’s able to locate them at will – a skill he has flexed at times. I’m curious, but would rather take other chances to kick off the year.

121. Reid Detmers (LAA, LHP)

Detmers. Buddy. Pal. For three years, you showcased an elite slider in the spring. For three years, you had glimpses of that pitch during the season and failed to carry its command consistently. So much so, you returned to the minors multiple times. Last year felt a bit different as he showed up with a touch extra extension and two inches more of iVB on his four-seamer at 94/95 mph (17″ of vert is excellent and a huge step forward from 15″), leading to destruction across the first month of the year. But the command. He had the tools, even with a budding changeup that demoralized batters the third time through the lineup – they were finally ready to take on the new heat and were met with some glorious slowballs out of nowhere. But he couldn’t consistently locate and even with that vert, the low extension at 93/94 (the velo dropped to 92/93 mph by the end of the year), and mistakes on all four pitches did him in.

I still dream there will be a year when Detmers has feel for the back-foot slider all season (he did moreso than usual in 2024!) with a fastball he actually spots upstairs at 95 mph consistently, a changeup he can actually get down (50% zone rate is too dang high!), and a curve he can whip out of his back pocket with confidence. As of now, it’s a great slider (most of the time) and not enough pieces around it, paired with a coaching staff in Los Angeles that gives me little faith he’ll be able to make the adjustments across the season. Now if he gets traded…

Quick Take: Detmers has displayed the skills routinely in the spring – a slider well spotted down and in to RHB, a good vert four-seamer, and a curve + change to mix up batters. Sadly, I don’t have faith in the Angels to help Detmers recalibrate in-season when he loses the feel for his breaker.

122. Keaton Winn (SFG, RHP)

Winn underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in late July, which sounds terrible, but is far better than TJS (it moves a nerve to new position to make it less compressed, reducing pain nearly instantly). It means we may see Winn fight for a job out of camp or be an early option when needed and there may be some sneaky value in deep leagues. The splitter is a great pitch when working and it led to a fantastic 3.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 22% K rate in six April starts before the wheels fell off (likely due to elbow pain – he hit the IL three starts later). I don’t love the arsenal outside of the splitter, but his 96 mph sinker works off the splitter with good horizontal break (just get it inside to RHB dangit!) and a decent slider, saving his four-seamer mostly upstairs as a surprise two-strike pitch. With a good team context, there’s sleeper value in Winn as a reliable Toby in 12-teamers and could be a target in 15-teamers as one of the first guys to find the rotation when an opening appears.

Quick Take: Winn has the opportunity to be a Toby in 15-teamers and even 12-teamers if he can regain his rhythm inside the Giants’ rotation with a legit splitter and solid slider.

123. Kyle Harrison (SFG, LHP)

There’s plenty to fix with Harrison and unless I’m in a deep league and need to chase something, I’m not touching Harrison until I see legitimate changes. His four-seamer comes with plenty of horizontal break and vertical drop (is it actually a sinker and four-seamer classified as one? Both increased from last year and it would make the most sense if they were combined into one) that speaks to the weak contact allowed to LHB with its high strike rates, but whiffs are hard to come by. It’s a good foundational pitch (not elite) and sets the table for his secondaries to take over. There’s yer problem. Yeah. I know.

Unfortunately, the curve and change are not the goons Harrison can snap his fingers at to Take Care Of It. His hook has difficulty landing away and down to LHB and is reserved mostly as a surprise called strike offering to RHB…or gets smacked when expected. The slowball tried to be the RHB #2 pitch, but failed to hit a 60% strike rate with a paltry 10% SwStr rate as its horizontal movement carried it far outside and failed to tempt batters down-and-away.

He’s not a refined arm with mechanics that speak toward inconsistent release and precision, though I may be harsh on the young southpaw as he’s only 23-years-old. It’s no fun trying to be a clairvoyant, humming with fluttering eyelids as I try to tell you if this is the off-season Harrison adds elements to his game that allow him to soar in the big leagues. However, I refuse to entirely rule out the possibility of Harrison making tweaks to his game that make his changeup a proper weapon or returns to the slider he threw four times to LHB early in the year and quickly abandoned. For now, we wait and see in 12-teamers, hoping he gives us a spark of hope in the spring.

Quick Take: The current version of Harrison is one to easily avoid in drafts this year, save for those in deep formats who are looking for a high upside arm despite a low probability of coming to fruition. However, he’s only 23-years-old, opening the door for rapid development we could see as early as March. He needs it.

124. Jordan Hicks (SFG, RHP)

Do you believe that Hicks can throw strikes with his sweeper and splitter? I don’t, and especially not against LHB. Oh golly, he needed help against LHB and that splitter abandoned the cause when Hicks was the in rotation, reliable somewhat only against RHB…which was supposed to be the sweeper’s whole shtick, but even it had a sub 57% strike rate against RHB when things were “good” across his first fifteen starts.

The sinker had to do too dang much. It worked against RHB (Gasp), but LHB pounced on it like they do most sinkers. The Giants moved Hicks back to the pen in the second half and plan to have him start once again this year, though I’m not sure I want to play this game. If strikes are flowing, it can work, though he’s not an efficient pitcher who can cross six frames often (just three of those fifteen games came with six complete innings), making the return not as high as you’d want. Hicks isn’t the 12-teamer play I want to make early, though I can see gravitation toward him if he’s displaying a refined set of secondaries early in the year. In fifteen teamers, you can take a shot on Hicks winning the #5 spot out of camp and finding a groove for at least five innings per start with 4/5 strikeouts per game. I’m not too hopeful this will work out, especially with the depth of options ready to go for the Giants.

Quick Take: Hicks’ sweeper and splitter let him down in 2024, failing to earn strikes consistently and allowing batters to be patient for a walk or a hittable sinker. I lack the confidence Hicks will take a major step forward with either pitch in his second chance at the Giants rotation, though he could be a regular Toby if he does.

125. Casey Mize (DET, RHP)

The Tigers really want Mize to work out. We all want Mize to work out. What, like doing more pushups? Um, no. We want him to soar during the spring, seize a rotation spot, and never let go, Jack. How did you know my name?! With a four-seamer at 95/96 mph and over seven feet of extension, the path to success lands on the shoulders of his #2 pitch. The splitter? Maybe, but probably not. It could very much work if that pitch were a consistent strike offering, but its 58% clip last year tells you it’s not. No, I’m referring to the 88/89 mph slider/cutter thing he had when he first debuted, and I’d even love him to have an even harder one at 90/91 mph to take advantage of his extension. H*ck, you saw his sinker get involved last year and it earned a ton of strikes and weak contact. It’s right there!

Mize performs well with the splitter against LHB, well enough that I’m not overly concerned with the pitch merged with four-seamers to survive enough. It’s really about dominating RHB consistently and I don’t see a path unless his heater hits another gear, the splitter becomes a 65%+ strike pitch, or he finds that hard cutter to play off the fastballs. He’s a great arm to monitor during the spring, especially with Alex Cobb delayed with a hip injury. It’s Mize’s rotation spot to lose at this point.

Quick Take: I’m a little pessimistic that Mize can make all the tweaks that would demand a fantasy pick-up, but he should be closely watched during the spring. If we see a hard slider/cutter around 90 mph that he can play off the four-seamer, we may have the Mize we’ve waited so long to arrive.