Let’s continue ranking the best 400 starting Pitchers to draft in fantasy baseball for 2025.
Remember, these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation. I’ve also added the Top 100 SP table at the bottom of this article.
For a table of the entire 400 SP (really 450!) and to read this article Ad-Free (or to simply support me for putting all of this together!), make sure to subscribe to PL+ or PL Pro where I have these rankings inside a massive Google Sheet. You can access the sheet inside our subscriber Discord.
To get the full context of these rankings, read my Rankings outline at the start of the 1-20 rankings and as always…
Read The Notes
Tier 17 – We Can’t Let 12-Teamers Have All The Fun (Cont’d)
There is always more upside to be found and these arms could be super sneaky for deeper leagues, with some carrying a low shot of making their ways onto 12-teamers. Pay attention to them.
151. Griffin Canning (NYM, RHP)
Oh snap, the Angels traded him! He’s in Atlanta no–oh. They released him. The Mets it is! Here you go, Flushing Meadows. A pair of deadzone fastballs with a changeup and slider that we hope don’t find enough of the zone to get pummeled. He’s the ultimate discount Cleveland starter with horrific heaters and whiff potential breakers, but sadly, it’s hard to figure out where the strikes come from to get to two strikes, and hopefully he can get his putaway rates back up to their 2023 levels. The goal for the Mets will be to fix Canning’s slider, a pitch that was punished by LHB far more in 2024 after losing two inches of drop, while there’s little hope to save the four-seamer. Maybe throw it less than the slider and changeup against RHB? I dunno, it’s a massive gamble starting Canning in any capacity when he does get a chance to start, which doesn’t come with the ceiling we saw earlier in his career. It’s like turning on both the Microwave and Coffee Maker at the same time – the electricity is gone.
Quick Take: With the Montas injury, Canning has a chance to beat out Megill and Blackburn (who is a little delayed) for the fifth spot in the rotation (or is it a six-man?) and he feels like bait to me. The slider and change have whiffs but make many mistakes while the four-seamer just isn’t good. He’s not it y’all.
152. Osvaldo Bido (ATH, RHP)
This is something. Bido’s four-seamer was your quintissential “Oh jeez, oh my, don’t hurt me, I’m just going to hang out over here off the plate or barely on the edge” pitch to both RHB and LHB, favoring glove-side and off the plate to the former, and up-and-away to the latter. It led to an overall 60% strike rate on the pitch, falling to just 57% against RHB. However, it led to stupid low hard contact off the pitch, especially with the cutter getting mixed in and muddying the waters. Throw in a Dancing With The Disco approach with his slider (20%+ usage at 75% strikes!) that also came with whiffability against RHB and Bido was able to have a nice little stretch of games where batters weren’t passive enough and he hit his spots when he needed to.
That is not a way to live throughout a full season, sadly. The four-seamer on its own is far from impressive and I sincerely question his command over the long haul. It’s a pedestrian fastball with an effective slider and volatile cutter. If he leans harder on the slider (it does get crushed more than ideal given its frequent “whatever” approach over the plate) , improves the cutter, and keeps avoiding destruction off the fastball, there’s a path to sustainable. That’s more IFs than an app’s source code, sadly, and I have little interest.
Tier 18 – Spring Focuses For Deep Leagues
Another collection of upside arms, here with a larger focus on their spring performances and hopes to earn a rotation spot. I think they’ll become more of an intriguing arm at some point during the season (if at all) rather than demanding a pick at the end of march.
153. Chase Silseth (LAA, RHP)
We haven’t seen Silseth get comfortable in the rotation since the summer of 2023, and even that stint was cut short by a terrifying comebacker after eight starts. The skillset(h) is of the classic Cleveland variety – above-average sliders against RHB and changeups (splitters) against LHB with poor fastballs. The sinker is most effective against RHB, but can get him into trouble often, while the four-seamer gets smacked or simply misses the zone entirely.
I can see a run from Silseth once again if the slider (a sweeper, really) and splitter are both cooking, though the susceptibility of his heaters merged with questionable reliability of his secondaries makes Silseth a HIPSTER at best, with most of his time likely spent on waiver wires this season. He’ll be a decent streamer for when you need to find strikeouts over the weekend, with the rare stretch of sustainability you won’t know about until it’s too late. But what if I read the roundup daily? I won’t know if it’s sustainable, y’all, but at least you’ll know he’s succeeding when he does. Ah. Dang.
154. Joe Boyle (TBR, RHP)
Do I need to write about Boyle? His stuff isn’t actually Top 5 SP stuff (97/98 mph velocity, but mid shape + slider at 88 mph and mid shape) and the dude can’t locate. He hurls and burls pitches, staring at the catcher’s mitt conveniently located down the heart of the plate, and getting frustrated when his four-seamer holds a 54% strike rate. He has RP written all over him and let’s say he actually finds a way to throw strikes with consistency next season at a 65%+ clip on the fastball and slider. I think he’d be good, but not a stud. Yes, throwing hard is cool and the 10 mph difference on the slider is in the right spot to get whiffs if batters are actually convinced a strike is coming and are put on the defensive, but he’s not a potential Skenes. He’s a potential…what’s below Jared Jones? Whatever that is. You don’t want this, y’all. You won’t even know if you can trust him if it actually all works out.
155. Triston McKenzie (CLE, RHP)
Triston pitched with a torn UCL, opted against TJS, and still managed to pitch sixteen starts last year before a demotion to Triple-A that featured a whole lot of sadness outside of one incredible eleven strikeout game at 94 mph. So here we are now, entering 2025 without much of a clue of his health, velocity, or the Guardians’ intentions entering the season.
Let’s see what’s up during the spring. I’m not banking on McKenzie suddenly appearing and acting like the last few years have been lost in a coma, though it’s not out of the question we see McKenzie looking spry again and the Guardians give it a shot. His exceptional iVB with solid extension gives him a shot, especially if the curve and slider are finding strikes once again.
156. Slade Cecconi (CLE, RHP)
The Guardians acquired Cecconi in the deal that sent Naylor to Arizona and I’ve seen a bit of chatter about Cecconi being inside the rotation and acting as a sneaky play. I’m not quite seeing it myself. There isn’t a whiff pitch in the arsenal, nor does he carry an above-average four-seamer. There are whispers that Cecconi will look different this spring, which I’ll certainly react to when I see it. Until then, I’ll hold back optimism and let someone take the chance. I really don’t see 12-teamer relevance without a major overhaul.
157. Aaron Ashby (MIL, LHP)
Things have changed since 2021. I’ve changed. I know things like extension on pitchers, and I know that having 7.2 feet of extension is elite. Imagine my reaction when I found out that Ashby has not 6.2 feet of extension, but 5.2 feet of extension. Yes, that is the worst extension in baseball, thanks for asking. That low of an extension mixed with his over-the-top delivery gives him the steepest sinker in baseball, however, which is another wrinkle to this whole “Who really are you?!” question about Ashby.
Ignoring all of that, his sinker is a groundball machine, while the changeup and slider can be fantastic when executed properly. That’s another thing – Ashby doesn’t have the greatest command out there. It’s a bit inconsistent, and even back in 2021, I watched him fight it a ton. I’d need to see him earning high strike rates on his change and slider during the spring for me to feel reasonable about chasing him if he happens to find his way into a rotation spot, and even then I’d still be worried he couldn’t go six frames.
If he can find a way to harness his control (he’s pitching one-to-feet further away than everyone else, that’s not easy!), then I can see an efficient arm with legit strikeout potential. Pay attention during the spring – Ashby is the clear SP #6 here, and if Woodruff is delayed or anyone else isn’t up to snuff, Ashby will get a shot. And it could be great after getting comfortable in the pen last season in long relief. Put him in your “pay attention” column in the spring, but don’t get your hopes up.
Quick Take: Ashby’s unique delivery creates a ton of grounders and whiffability but opens the door for control issues. If he’s capable of keeping walks in check and granted an opportunity to seize a rotation spot, Ashby could provide the sneaky value I’ve dreamed for him since he appeared in the big leagues.
158. Mason Montgomery (TBR, LHP)
We saw an exciting two-pitch mix from the left side in Montgomery’s limited 9.2 IP games as a reliever in 2024 and we very well may see Mason stay there across the season. However, I sure wish he starts with his legit potential. We didn’t see a third offering, but 97 mph heater with solid shape merged with an 89 mph slider at 80th percentile vertical drop is a phenomenal foundation, especially with his intent to go BSB. If the changeup he featured in the minors returns to the mix as a reliable option, Monty becomes a “must-add” when he gets the opportunity in the future…which may not be for a long time. Know the name.
159. Caleb Kilian (CHC, RHP)
I fell for Kilian in spring of 2024…until he hurt his shoulder and missed a ton of time. Suddenly, I awoke in late September to discover Kilian returned to the majors and flirted with the same skills that made us hyped six months prior. Kilian’s heaters range from low-to-upper 90s (yes, it’s weird. He’ll throw 91 mph then 97 mph and apparently it’s the same pitch…?) with above-average extension, with sinkers sitting armside against RHB, and his four-seamer filling up the rest of the plate. The cutter is the star of the show, though, with aggressive break at 86 mph (maybe it’s just a cutter?), plus a sweeper, curve, and even a rare changeup. He’s still in development, though, and I’m awfully curious to watch him in March. I imagine Kilian as the first prospect to get the shot if he’s ready to go, but if I had to guess, he’s 7th or 8th on the list behind Wicks at the very least. Pay attention to Kilian.
160. Miguel Ullola (HOU, RHP)
The Astros may seem like they have a lot of depth (just look at the guys on their IL!) but their #5 is Hayden Wesneski and their #6 is…Shawn Dubin? Forrest Whittley after oh-so-long? Ullola is the one I’m focusing on the most this spring with the Astros with a heater that should get you excited even at 93/94 mph. The sole start he had in Triple-A showcased the pitch with 19-20 inches of vert, a 1.4 HAVAA and supreme intent to land the pitch upstairs. And slightly above-average extension, too! The cutter was a bridge pitch for strikes, curveballs underneath (not as consistent) and I’m sitting here getting amped to watch him in the spring. He could be the next big Houston surprise…or fizzle out if he can’t find enough strikes or find a reliable secondary. Know the name, Ullola, U-L-L-Oooooola.
161. Caden Dana (LAA, RHP)
I wanted to like Dana, though there isn’t a whole lot to latch onto. His four-seamer is awfully mid at 93/94 mph, though I do trust him to command it a touch better than your standard RHB fastball – not to a degree that I’d buy into it as a legit foundation. Dana displayed the ability to spot the slider down-and-away to RHB for a fair number of whiffs, though its success came more from the precision in the moment, and not its overall profile. I’m expecting it to even out over more time.
Against LHB, it’s even worse. Both the four-seamer and slider perform poorly, leaving he 15-20% usage changeup as the savior. Narrator: It is not. I’m curious how he forms across 2025 as we hit the reset button and hope Dana exhibits ability we didn’t get a chance to witness in his brief 10 IP stint.
162. Sam Bachman (LAA, RHP)
We saw Bachman as a reliever, chucking 97 mph sinkers with a horrific 50% strike rate and favoring 88 mph sliders instead, that had their share of success, but without the obliteration we want to see from young arms. There’s a chance he returns to starting for the Angels in the year ahead and that slider + 97 mph velocity (well, likely 95 mph as a starter) could work if there’s another solid option (the changeup wasn’t great in the five we saw this year). I doubt it, though.
163. Matt Manning (DET, RHP)
Manning has some fun aspects to his four-seamer – near seven feet of extension, cut action, and 1.4 HAVAA – but the fella flirts with 95/96 mph only to fall down to 93/94 mph in season. He has a sweeper that should perform well against RHB and…oh. That’s it? Hmmmm. I was hyped last year seeing the four-seamer increase its vert and velocity in the spring only for him to get demoted out of nowhere and never get his confidence back up.
I’m going to hold back praise of Manning until I see a secondary that isn’t the sweeper that he can rely on and a four-seamer that dominates akin to the 95/96 mph we saw in the spring last year. We saw it last year and he was still demoted! Hmmm, great point. Maybe we wait until he has a rotation spot and a game or two under his belt? That seems right.
Quick Take: Manning needs to get his velocity back and find a bit more arsenal depth before we can jump back in. A little bit of improved command to take advantage of his flat attack angle would help plenty, too.
164. Michael McGreevy (STL, RHP)
We saw McGreevy last year (he even had an SP Roundup headline!) and, uh, he’s kinda great? Maybe? He’s not a guy that will blow you away, but his variety of pitches without leaning into his four-seamer (phew! It’s has terrible shape) makes him a crafty pitcher who could develop in the classic Cardinals mold. The cutter and sinker play off each other well, the changeup has promise against LHB, and the slider had a near 20% SwStr rate to RHB in the small taste we got last year. You might have a sleeper pick here. Let’s see how the Cardinals treat him in camp and take it from there – just be aware, the ceiling feels a bit limited but I can see future Toby/Holly here. It’s that kind of mold without an overpowering heater or filthy breaker (the slider isn’t…right?).
Quick Take: The Cardinals have few strong options and McGreevy could slider into a rotation spot and be good enough for an add in your 15-teamers, at the very least, even if he’s a little boring.
165. Ian Anderson (ATL, RHP)
Unless Anderson looks horrid out of camp, he’s the #5 arm for Atlanta out of the gate. That alone should demand your focus in the spring and I’m excited to watch the fella after returning from TJS. If you’ve forgotten, Anderson’s four-seamer/changeup combo worked wonders in 2021, confounding RHB for a miraculous sub-30 % ICR on his heater and a 20% SwStr rate on the changeup. LHB fared a bit better (oddly enough) and his curve had brief moments of bliss but was mainly a Work in Progress that I wishcasted for the future.
Now in 2025, I wonder how Anderson has grown. His approach calls for a slider or, yes, a cutter to earn strikes to both-handed batters, and without it, you may still see the high 10%+ walk rate of old, but let’s treat this like a prospect. What will he have to offer? Watch closely and see if there is a value starter out of the gate… BUT he’ll get the Padres or Dodgers in his first start. OH COME ON. Yeah. You may want to pass on this one altogether in 12-teamers as you are absolutely not starting him in his first outing, without a clear ceiling to chase after the tough matchup.
Quick Take: I wonder if Anderson can become a solid waiver wire add this year for all formats, but his opening matchup and lack of clear promise without any new data suggests we wait and see until he forces us to add him in-season.
Tier 19 – The Prospects To Stash For 2025
I love these prospects but I have no idea when they will get their shot in the rotation this year (if at all). Know these names. Also, the ranks for prospects moving forward are loose and group based, not a strict ranking inside the tier.
166. Noah Schultz (CHW, LHP)
If you don’t know Schultz, I’m glad you’re here. I’m glad you’re here if you already knew him, too, I’M JUST HAPPY TO HELP. Schultz has been compared to Randy Johnson as he hurls mid-to-upper 90s heaters from the left side, paired with an elite breaker that looks awfully like a mix of Randy’s and Sale’s signature breakers. There’s a developing sinker and changeup in the mix as well, and Schultz could appear in camp ready to dominate and demand a starting gig. After all, he returned an elite 1.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with just 7% walks in 16 Double-A starts while flirting with a 30% strikeout rate (11-12% SwStr rate is a little lower than expected, though that may be due to him working on his arsenal), and he hasn’t hit his potential quite yet. He’s the perfect last pick to wait-and-see if he gets the opportunity from the spring. If not, you can drop and move on before the season even starts.
167. Andrew Painter (PHI, RHP)
Everyone loves Painter. He’s incredible! He’s Verlander! His command is pristine, and he has such a deep arsenal! Well, I haven’t had any data on Painter until the AFL and…I didn’t like it? I talked to James Anderson about this at FPAZ and he gave some great insight, mentioning the belief that Painter has a refined arsenal that will likely take a moment to come back by the time we see him arrive around July for Philadelphia (maybe sooner if their rotation crumbles, they have no depth). So fine, I’ll ignore the terrible 6.1 feet of extension with low iVB and a super steep attack angle on his 96 mph fastball for now. Personally, given how long of a wait this is and with a handful of other starters I like more, I’m personally sitting this one out.
168. Alejandro Rosario (TEX, RHP)
Update: Rosario is undergoing Tommy John Surgery – 2/23/25
He throws mid-to-upper 90s with a legit splitter and slider combo that carved up A/A+ ball with a ridiculous 129/13 K per BB in 88.1 frames. Yes, that’s bonkers, yes he should be an auto-add when he gets the call. The question is when as he’s expected to start the season in Double-A for his 23-year-old season. With his recent arm-angle change that has him more over the top, he could be missing more bats upstairs and keep his walk rate consistently low through the ranks. I don’t expect the Rangers to be aggressive early, but once Rocker and Leiter have had their chances, Rosario should be circled to get a proper look – as long as his early season performance matches his 2024 campaign.
169. Gary Gill Hill (TBR, RHP)
Hill does a great job hurling strikes with a fantastic 6% walk rate in 108.2 innings in Single-A this past year, though the stuff may not bring enough excitement when he arrives at the big league level. He’s currently in the low-to-mid 90s with a quartet of secondaries – a proper slider, curve, solid changeup, and even a cutter – which turned in a 24% strikeout and 12/13% SwStr rate against mediocre competition, which outlines to more of a Toby than potential Cherry Bomb or more. With a likely advancement to Double-A coming early in 2025, Hill could be the trusted option to pitch competitive innings if the Rays needed help mid-season, and I’m looking forward to getting more data on his arsenal.
170. Brandon Sproat (NYM, RHP)
There’s been a whole lot of talk about Sproat as of late as the #1 Mets prospect and while I wonder if we’ll see him early in the year, I imagine the Mets want to see Sproat dominate at Triple-A before getting clearance. After all, four of his seven starts in Triple-A came with at least 4 ER, with four games of 2 Ks or fewer. It was rough. Sproat’s velocity is still there, flexing a heater sitting 97 mph in a few games, but the vert and extension are low percentile marks. His breakers show promise in a cutter, slider, and curve, and there is a changeup at play, making me curious what we get across a larger sample of not being whatever that was in August and September. Sit back and see how this plays out in April and May.
171. Moisés Chace (PHI, RHP)
I LOVE Moisés Chace, I just don’t know if we’re going to see him this year. His mechanics are fantastic where he’s centered with proper momentum toward the plate, allowing for far less variance in command than we normally see with young flamethrowers, with a legit four-seamer with ride upstairs and a whiff-heavy slider. I’d be all over Chace in a dynasty league, but for redraft leagues, we may have to wait until 2026. It’s possible we don’t – if Chace gets a long look in the spring + dominates early in April/May, then the Phillies may look at their depth options and say “GET ON UP HERE NOW” and save the team. They really don’t have much else outside of Painter.
172. Tink Hence (STL, RHP)
Yooooo, Hence is pretty dang fun. He throws mid-to-upper 90s with a filthy changeup (most of the time) + a developing breaker that I hope turns into upper 80s instead of low-to-mid 80s. I care a lot more about Hence than Quinn Mathews and the moment he gets the call, you should give him a spec add after boasting a 16% SwStr rate in twenty Double-A starts last year with just an 8% walk rate. That’s class.
173. Quinn Mathews (STL, RHP)
I’ve been pretty down on Mathews this offseason, but I’m starting to understand the hype a little better. Mathews obliterated Double-A in August, including 34 strikeouts across three of four starts before getting promoted to Triple-A where he…fell on his face. His first three games tallied 13 walks before a solid outing on the 19th, but it’s why I’ve been anti-Mathews. The sole data I had (Triple-A) was mostly him at his worst. With a 1.3 HAVAA at 94/95 mph, a back-foot slider to RHB and a 60 grade changeup per Eric Longenhagen, I can see it. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found his footing in Triple-A early in the year and catapulted into the rotation by summer, where he’d be an auto-add in 12-teamers. It all depends on the data looking solid in Triple-A this April and May, of course.
174. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, RHP)
His stuff is absurd. Triple digits with a hard cutter and big curve with the only question being command. That sounds like Joe Boyle. But with an actually absurd fastball. Fair. Misiorowski will appear in camp, and I’m going to hold out hope he can hold a zone rate above 50% with the four-seamer given he’s missing a bit too far glove side and isn’t featuring the typical scattershot of heaters. It’s just a touch of timing work to be done cross-body. Don’t you normally say that’s super inconsistent? Shhhhhh. Misiorowski was also limited to just two innings during his appearances in Triple-A. Two as a starter, then either one or two frames in relief from early August through the end. Blegh. He’s not stretched out and has reliever risk written all over him. BUT THERE’S A CHANCE. He throws 97 mph with 7.4 feet of extension and a 1.7 HAVAA. This would arguably be the best four-seamer among all starting pitchers if he could just throw strikes at the top of the zone. Yeah.
175. Emiliano Teodo (TEX, RHP)
Emiliano hurls upper-90s four-seamers that comfortably hit triple digits, though they don’t come with the whiffs you’d expect, suggesting poor shape or a sinker focus. It puts the focus on his slider and changeup, while hoping he can command the heater well enough for quick outs and turn to the secondaries confidently to find strikeouts. There’s clear potential in such a flamethrower as the slider does a great job cleaning up hitters, and the question remains if he can find the polish to bring his Double-A 12-14% walk rates down to digestible levels. With a possible start to the season in Triple-A, Teodo could be up this year. If he gets a shot, he’s a clear add, though I’d be cautious about the inefficiency he’s displayed thus far. Keep him on your radar throughout the year.
176. Winston Santos (TEX, RHP)
I think I like Santos the most of this crew, though I have to preface that I have limited data and information without Triple-A starts from all these arms. The report is mid-to-upper 90s heaters that miss bats with a tight slider as a true #2 offering and an unrefined changeup that flashes plus. The mechanics look smooth and reinforce the low walk rates across every level, with the heater leading the charge as a strike pitch that misses bats, likely from a great HAVAA given his relatively “short” height at an even six feet. With just under 50 frames of Double-A under his belt, he could quickly jump to Triple-A with the majors shortly after by the middle of the season. Don’t forget his name.
177. George Klassen (LAA, RHP)
He throws mid-to-upper 90s with a cross-body delivery and legit potential if he can throw enough strikes. That’s Klass. If he got the call today, I’d consider him the most exciting Angels arm, though Soriano would be the safer play for the year. He hasn’t had much time in Double-A thus far with just seven starts to his name, though the Angels may give him a shot early given their lack of depth. I expect Klassen to appear in Triple-A soon and pay attention to our weekly SPs to Stash and my morning streams as we get his data to determine if he’s worth the pickup when he gets his chance (or you can use our incredible PL Pro App that grades all Minor League SPs pitches from Triple-A starts. We’re talking iVB, velocity, PLV stuff, extension, HAVAA, ALL OF IT).
178. David Sandlin (BOS, RHP)
Hmmmm. Sandlin looks filthy at times with mid-to-upper 90s heaters and a nasty set of breaking balls merged with a low walk rate. Thing is, he has a massive hit-per-nine that suggest low extension or poor shape that makes his good control questionable – is he locating well inside the zone or are his pitches too hittable despite the velocity? Sandlin also dealt with a forearm strain in early 2024 and was limited by the Red Sox throughout his starts, which also amplifies the high hit rate – those starts when you’re feeling great usually have a larger impact but are cut off, while the poor starts are the same length – so I’m on the fence here. If Sandlin gets the call, I think he’s an auto-add. The Red Sox seemingly have enough depth to get through the season and not risk Sandlin going deep into games a ton, which has me hesitant to rank him highly for 2025. I hope he gets a shot in Triple-A this year where we can get proper data and stir some hype.
Tier 20 – The Weekly FAAB Wire
I expect many of these to go undrafted and become constant waiver wire considerations for 15-teamers throughout the year.
179. Joey Estes (ATH, RHP)
I’m not sure I can squint and see Estes as a pitcher to trust for 2025 in any format. His four-seamer leads the way against both LHB and RHB despite its low velocity and poor extension, hoping 16″ of vert at the top of the zone is enough to induce pop-outs – and it succeeds more often than you’d expect at 50% usage against LHB with a 38% ICR last season. Not great, but good enough. Meanwhile, the sweeper was effective enough to RHB to give him a shot, but I believe it made his four-seamer easier to pick up based on a change of arm angles (side of the ball for sweeper, top of the ball for four-seamer), explaining the large ICR splits gap on his heater. At least he throws a ton of strikes and has a long leash, opening the door for 6+ innings? If that’s your jam, cool. I guess.
180. Trevor Williams (WSN, RHP)
Trevor is the perfect example of why having a colorful band of pitches with precision can outweigh a few high stuff pitches thrown straight over the plate. Williams did well to keep all but his four-seamer down-and-in-town (all four of his secondaries held an 80%+ LoLoc!) while the heater danced over the plate at times to keep batters honest. It’s a tough game to play for a full year, relying on getting just enough strikes with the secondaries to prevent batters sitting on the sub 90mph heater over the plate.
It turns Williams into a Vargas Rule at best when he’s in rhythm (if you must), while the overall lack of whiffs mixed with heavy reliance on strong team defense (which the Nationals are not) makes me believe you should remember there are many other fish in the sea.
Quick Take: Don’t rely on Trevor. At all. His secondaries all land below the zone, forcing his 90 mph to get lucky over the heart of the plate to get his outs when batters aren’t chasing. This isn’t what you want.
181. Martín Pérez (CHW, LHP)
The White Sox need volume to get through the season and it’s no surprise they called upon Pérez for the task. The veteran southpaw’s skill set speaks to volume with a variety of offerings to feature against all hitters, hoping to induce weak contact and generate quick outs. His sinker does its part against LHB with a near 40% O-Swing as it sits inside constantly, while featuring a decent cutter away to keep batters guessing.
It’s decent enough against LHB, though Pérez has to be in in a perfect groove to handle RHB with ease. His changeup is effective but not overwhelming like many of his lefty peers, forcing his sinker and cutter to do heavy lifting inside the zone as they pray for batters to let them pass for called strikes.
I see Pérez as an arm who can be a serviceable streamer (for QS moreso than Wins, of course) or even turn into a Vargas Rule at times when he’s locating his sinkers and changeups armside and landing cutters away to LHB with ease – h*ck, when he’s cooking, the curve becomes a trusted mix-up pitch as well – though he’s best to be avoided until you’re searching for a streaming option.
Quick Take: Pérez has some value in QS leagues but only when he’s able to string multiple starts of precision across his wide arsenal. He’s a desperate play for volume in deeper leagues and should be rarely touched in 12-teamers.
182. Jonathan Cannon (CHW, RHP)
If you watched Cannon pitch in 2024, you would have seen him look like a modern Maddux for an inning or two, then appear in the next frame as that random Quad-A pitcher whose name eludes you. Oh wait. His name is Jonathan Cannon. He’s a sinkerballer who is able to dot the outside corner to RHB when he’s in a groove, which can work as a called strike offering, but without a dastardly secondary to follow up, it doesn’t end at-bats as often as he needs it to. It’s part of the reason why I believe he should be jamming the pitch more often to RHB, which would also open up the outside part of the plate better for his cutter and sweeper.
Per usual, this sinkerballer has complications against LHB. There is promise in his changeup, though its sub 15% SwStr rate last season outlines its lack of electricity. His cutter attempts to be the foundation, but Cannon fails to locate it effectively and it exposes his lack of reinforcements against LHB.
I’m curious if Cannon will take advantage of his secure rotation spot in the year ahead. Will he refine his secondaries or approach? Can he boost his velocity from 93 mph and flirt with consistent 95 mph sinkers? There’s potential for a QS darling here, but there’s work to be done.
Quick Take: The sinker is appropriately named with excellent drop, but there isn’t much else to support it. If Cannon can take steps forward with his secondaries, he could find himself completing the sixth inning often, showcasing value even when his team stays off the board.
183. Davis Martin (CHW, RHP)
If only Martin had a decent four-seamer in the mix. The slider and cutter are precise against RHB to a degree that I want to tell everyone and ensure he gets his deserving accolades for his stellar command of the pair. Sadly, I worry the four-seamer will struggle against RHB in the season ahead, even if he’s featuring 40%+ sliders and roughly 25% heaters.
His famous “kick-change” has promise, though it needs to take a step forward if Davis is to escape his heat(er) demons. The slowball failed to get down enough against LHB, leading to few whiffs and a whole lot of punishment, but it’s the clearest area of growth that can lead to a sizeable increase in results.
A slider/cutter/change mix could be in the cards with an occasional heater or curve (maybe a sinker…?) and with a near 5.50 PLV slider and a changeup that could boast the same mark, Martin could be the latest “bad heater, great secondaries” arm outside the Cleveland system. But why does it have to be such a bad fastball…
Quick Take: Martin flashes talent with his slider and cutter command + a legit change that could morph into a true weapon. With a terrible fastball and not quite enough whiffability, it may take some time before he can take the leap. That ceiling isn’t as high as many others, unfortunately, making Martin a questionable flier and most likely a streaming option across all formats.
184. Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSN, LHP)
The Nationals added Ogasawara to their rotation and I expect him to get a position out of camp, pushing Soroka to the pen as a long-relief depth option. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Ogasawara fanned just 14% of batters last year, a startling clip even with Japan’s lower strikeout rate. His 91-93 mph heater establishes the zone with a curve and change in the mix and I’d imagine Ogasawara as a back-end Toby at best, akin to a Martin Pérez or Wade Miley arm for the Nationals. We’ll have to wait and see.
Quick Take: Ogasawara’s low strikeout rate and simple pitch mix at 91-93 mph suggest a strike-thrower who hopes Koufax will guide him through 5+ frames on a given night. It’s what the Nationals need – Innings – but not what your fantasy teams crave, save for the final spot in an NL-Only that needs any regular starter capable of a Win.
185. Erick Fedde (STL, RHP)
Fedde had a moment when he first arrived on the White Sox, was dealt halfway through the season and the book was out by then. His cutter/sweeper/sinker approach to right-handers is far from special (why are his sinkers away and not inside to RHB?) and his sweeper fails to get a large number of whiffs. The breakers are swapped out for a worse changeup against LHB and that’s about it.
Sure, your deep NL-Only leagues will like that he goes every five days and maybe he can keep his ERA under 4.00 if the Cardinals have a strong defense behind him. But in 15-teamers and shallower? You’re better off not trusting the Feddes. Ayyyy, it’s back! Unfortunately, yes.
Quick Take: Fedde may be a rare streamer, though his arsenal provides little to get excited about. This is a volume/Wins play for NL-Only leagues and not a very good one at that.
186. Michael Lorenzen (KCR, RHP)
Lorenzen is a dude who tries. He really tries. He’s got all the pitches you’d ever want, but none of them are what you’re looking for. Watching Lorenzen pitch is like scanning a diner menu and realizing you don’t want to eat any of it. Sure, the changeup can be pretty at times, but it ain’t reliable and is more of a chase pitch in two-strike counts than something like Wacha’s plan of “get me to the Changgggeup!” (Bonus points if you read that like Arnold). I dig the cutter to LHB as he aims to jam them inside, I hate how he can’t actually get the sinker inside to RHB, and even he elected to turn away from Dancing With The Disco after realizing his slider simply isn’t very good. It turns Lorenzen into a deep league Toby and a rare streamer for the majority of us in 12-teamers.
Quick Take: The fastballs are pedestrian and his breaking pitches have moments but lack the electricity to push him into a considerable add for most leagues. Maybe for a weekly stream here and there, but even then I’d have low expectations.
187. Chris Paddack (MIN, RHP)
We saw 17 starts from Paddack last year at 93/94 mph with seven feet of extension on the heater and I wish that were enough. His iVB is lacking at such a steep attack angle and he doesn’t pair it with anything above 85 mph to truly take advantage of the extension. He does get whiffs upstairs with it in two-strike counts, but it really struggles against LHB with a near 50% ICR.
His lack of feel for spin (sliders and curves have low ICR but can’t be relied upon for strikes) makes him lean into his vulcan change, which was impressive against RHB last year. He consistently located it down and it saved him in many outings. That said, it wasn’t nearly as effective against LHB (weird, right?) as he couldn’t command it with the same precision.
I’m hesitant to chase Paddack as I ask “Where does he improve?” We’ve desired a legit breaker for ages and never got one, his fastball velocity and shape are unlikely to improve, and he’s already maxing out his split-change save for small adjustments to be made against LHB. It’s not the blueprint for a guy I want to chase in my drafts.
Quick Take: Paddack’s seven feet of extension with a good feel for his vulcan changeup keeps him around, but his four-seamer’s poor shape at 93/94 mph without a solid breaker or cutter or sinker to back it up makes it tough to envision a breakout season in 2025.
Tier 21 – You’re Hurt And I Hear You
These fellas are hurt and could return during the year to some fanfare. Not a lot, but some.
188. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, RHP)
McCullers Jr., I really hope you’re okay to pitch again this year. He was the king of hard curveballs + a slider that was a Sweeper before we gave them a proper title, mixed with a sinker that…wasn’t great. I highly question if he’ll still be throwing the same slider that he tossed like hurling “a pizza” across his body before all of his elbow troubles followed, but he’s throwing bullpens now and is expected to return at somepoint this season.
He’s not the worst IL stash out there (what do you have to lose with your last pick?), though I’m not starting in his first start back unless his Triple-A rehab starts are gorgeous. Don’t forget, he’s a famously poor WHIP arm rooted in a lack of non-breakers he can trust in the zone that doesn’t get pummeled for hits. A lot of pitching theory has changed since 2022, though, and it’s possible he’s reshaped himself since we last saw him…I love stuff like this. I hope we get to see him soon.
189. Javier Assad (CHC, RHP)
I can’t sit here and tell you exactly how Assad went on that ridiculous run last year. A 3.73 ERA from his skill set is a wonder to behold, and to think his ERA rose fifty points across his final three games. He had the grace of Koufax and called it a day, hurling 91 mph sinkers to RHB over the plate and getting away with it despite a 14%+ mistake rate. The cutter was spotted well to RHB and that’s fun n whatnot, but not nearly enough to suggest he can consistently boast an ERA under 4.00 with any sort of consistency.
LHB had an even easier time than RHB as well, though I can applaud Assad for spotting front-hip sinkers more often than his contemporaries, leading to a sub 35% ICR as he paired it with his cutter, but we’re still missing a whole lot from this skill audit. I need to speak to your accountant. Be careful drafting Assad this year – he’s the clear #5 on this team and could be replaced before April arrives.
Quick Take: 2024 was a whole lot of smoke and mirrors and Assad looks to be a streaming option at best this year…if he can hold onto his rotation spot in the first place. There are far better Toby types to chase without sacrificing your WHIP.
190. Alex Cobb (DET, RHP)
Cobb signed a deal with the Tigers only for his hip injury to appear and once again set him back. He’ll be on the IL to start the season and it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to be on the mound. And while I would normally stand here and say, “It doesn’t matter, you know you don’t want this,” I will acknowledge that Cobb has had a sub 4.00 ERA across each of the last four seasons (something Nick Pivetta has never done in eight…SORRY NICK). But yes, the WHIP will likely be high based on his sinker/curve approach that relies on “The Thing” (his splitter) cooking on a given night. It’s not the guy you want for standard leagues and he’s at best a deep league waiver wire play for the week.
191. Frankie Montas Jr. (NYM, RHP)
Update 2/17: Montas has a high-grade lat strain and will be shut down for 6-8 weeks.
Montas feels like the quintessential Mets signing. They lost Quintana and Severino, gotta fill that void with Montas! Last year brought plenty of shocking success against RHB, aided a touch at the halfway point when his velocity upped to 96/97 from 94/95, but his struggles against LHB remained. You can thank an irregular splitter as the only effective pitch…at a strike rate hovering around 50%, as the sinker and four-seamer were demolished. The cutter and slider don’t do enough to limit damage against LHB, making Montas an awfully volatile arm throughout the year.
Maybe he’s just that good against RHB for a considerable amount of time this year, though it’s more likely he regresses a bit, continues to struggle against LHB, and after a few stretches of unfortunate BABIP, gets the axe as the Mets move to their fringe options or a prospect. The upside is a decent arm for Quality Starts and Wins as the Mets are sure to let him eclipse 90 pitches if he’s keeping them in the game that day. Consider him for deep leagues and only for the rare stream in 12-teamers.
Quick Take: Montas has a job when he returns. For now. His velocity bump in July isn’t enough to eradicate his struggles against LHB, while his ability to limit hard contact from RHB is borderline for rosterability in 15-teamers and deeper. You can stream Montas if you must, but don’t expect a Vargas Rule to appear when he returns.
192. John Means (CLE, LHP)
Means is rehabbing from TJS again after his first procedure was a failure with his elbow hurting shortly after returning. I feel horrible for the guy, but the hope is for him to return by August/September and show us something fun to get excited about for 2026. The ideal is a legit changeup, a decent four-seamer up, and a pair of breaking balls to create a low WHIP arm, a fair number of strikeouts, and a questionable ERA if he can limit the HRs. You can pretty much ignore him until the summer, though, as there’s no guarantee he’ll actually pitch this season in the first place.
193. DL Hall (MIL, LHP)
Some bad news for Hall – he strained his lat and will be delayed quite a bit through camp. The report is that he’ll be ramping up at the end of March and not stretched out to start by Opening Day. I imagine the Brewers want to keep him stretched out inside of returning to the pen, so I’m anticipating an IL stint to kick off the year with a possible entrance to the rotation (if there’s space) in the middle of April. It’s not a good situation in the slightest for a guy who disappointed all of us by changing his arm angle and featuring much lower velocity before getting a knee sprain and missing significant time.
I don’t have high hopes like I did last year. We’re at the stage where Hall needs to prove he has the ceiling of old before we take another shot on this, let alone the whole There’s No Room problem, too. I think you’re safe leaving him on the wire, reading the data as we get it, and jumping if there’s something interesting to snag with a rotation spot in his grasp.
Quick Take: Hall is already nursing a lat injury and could be on the IL to kick off the season, leaving him without a rotation spot upon return. If space opens up and he’s flexing 94/95 mph velocity with the shape of old merged with at least one strong secondary, then we may jump back in. Only during the season, though.
Tier 22 – More Prospects Who Could Do Something In 2025
I imagine we’ll see many of these pitchers get their shot in 2025 and I’m super curious how they look when they do. Feel free to make a spec-add when they get the nod to start and track their Triple-A data with our PL Pro MiLB app.
194. Brandyn Garcia (SEA, LHP)
He’s a low arm-slot, slingin’ lefty not unlike Nick Lodolo and friends, making him the most interesting arm of the lot. The strikeout potential is highest with a fastball sitting mid-90s and pushing as high as 97 mph, while the breaker destroys RHB at their backfoot. Control has been the concern (no shock there), but if Brandyn is resisting the walks early, he could get the call. This is your standard “Wait, he had seven strikeouts?!” kind of arm who then returns 6 ER in 1.2 IP with four walks in his next game.
195. Noble Meyer (MIA, RHP
Like Max, this Meyer has a fantasy slider and…nothing else. The sinker comes in at 95 mph and doesn’t do enough to impress, while the rest of the arsenal is just hanging around for the free coffee. What about the changeup?! Okay fair, there is some promise there, though my understanding is that it isn’t a 25%+ usage offering to mask his mediocre fastball. The slider will turn heads for sure when he arrives (Pitched in A/A+ last year), but I’m not that interested given his middling heater and elevated walk rate (not a shock when it’s a slider focus).
196. Luis Morales (ATH, RHP)
He’ll be just 22 years old for most of the 2025 season and just made 22 starts in A+ ball, creating an outside chance he’ll get the jump to the majors after time in Double-A in the year ahead. He throws hard in the mid-to-upper 90s with a curveball and a noticeable lack of polish on his ability to orchestrate an at-bat. I’d be highly skeptical of Morales getting the call and consistently producing, with the Shag Rug very much showcasing itself often. The limited reports and data illuminate a young arm desperately needing refinement.
197. Jack Perkins (ATH, RHP)
He throws mid-90s with his secondaries taking more of a backseat to the four-seamer. Control is a major concern given 11%+ walk rates in both 2023 and 2024 across Single-A and Double-A and sadly, I don’t have proper data to tell you how great his four-seamer or breakers truly are. Pay attention to the walk rates and metrics via the PL Pro Live Data app when he hits Triple-A this year and you may score a legit sleeper when he gets the call. If the control isn’t there, though, you’re best avoiding him completely.
198. Joe Rock (TBR, LHP)
Joe is a slinging southpaw without the extension you’re looking for (closer to six feet than seven) and low 90s velocity. The sinker gets exceptional horizontal movement from the attack angle, though, and it finds the zone incessantly. I worry that there isn’t enough in the sinker/slider combo to dominate, though I may be underrating the changeup + a four-seamer that confounds when mixed with the sinker. The good news? He throws strikes. If his whiffability can stick in the majors (13-15% SwStr in the minors last year), there is hope for fantasy relevance. I’m a little cautious at the moment.
199. Yoniel Curet (TBR, RHP)
With placement on the 40-man roster, it’s possible Curet shoots up the system to make his debut in 2025. Will it be as a starter or a reliever? His mid-to-upper 90s heater propelled a 30%+ strikeout rate and he pairs it with the traditional slider + developing changeup, though the common issue is apparent: Strikes. Curet has yet to display a sub-10% walk rate and his lack of reliable depth may force him to the pen despite starting all 26 games of 2024. Pay attention to his performance this year, as it will dictate his role for 2025 and 2026.
200. Wikelman Gonzalez (CHW, RHP)
Gonzalez has good velocity on his heater that appears to come with a flat angle and solid extension, though his command of it is the biggest question. The White Sox could throw him into the fire in 2025 and hope the command comes along that allows him to work in a big curve and mid-80s slider, though it may be in a relief role after recording a near 13% walk rate in 83.2 Double-A innings last year. If the control is there, he could make for a fun pick-up, though it’s tough to believe he’ll eradicate his PEAS label quickly.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)