Waiver Relief: Week 18

Following last week’s All-Star break, the eyes of the baseball world have turned towards the upcoming trade deadline on August 3. For our purposes, this means speculating on which high-end setup men could emerge as closers after the dust settles.

Well, here’s the thing about that: I don’t currently see a single compelling case. The Padres will try to get a haul for Mason Miller, but top setup man Adrian Morejon is just as likely to be dealt, leaving behind a committee on a non-contender. The Red Sox no longer seem likely to test the waters on Aroldis Chapman following their historic winning streak. A handful of cellar dwellers (i.e. the Mets, Reds, and Giants) will put some arms on the market, but none – with the possible exception of Luke Weaver – would land a closing gig on their acquiring team. If anything, my best recommendation might be to stash Tejay Antone in case the Reds trade Emilio Pagán away. Yeesh.

Back in the real world, I’ll stick with what I know. This week, I’m running back the format of Waiver Relief’s previous issue. I’m leading off with an update on closers across the league, then providing my rankings for saves, holds, and SPRPs, along with a handful of names to put on your watchlist.

(stats updated through Thursday, 7/23)

 

Closer Notes

 

CHW

Grant Taylor once again fired up the fantasy universe by nabbing a pair of saves straddling the All-Star break. Taylor then returned to the role of fireman, entering in the seventh inning on Wednesday and picking up a hold. While he does finally lead the White Sox bullpen, expect Taylor to continue sharing save chances with the likes of Bryan Hudson and the red-hot Jordan Hicks.

 

LAA

While Kirby Yates is still my frontrunner for the Angels’ sparse save opportunities, Ryan Zeferjahn has more than earned a share. In the last month, Zeferjahn has notched not just a save but a win and two holds, striking out twenty batters and allowing just two earned runs over 11.1 innings. This remains a bullpen that you very much do not want to be counting on for fantasy purposes. Still, Zeferjahn ekes his way onto my closer rankings, albeit as Yates drops a few spots.

 

LAD

Edwin Díaz is on the verge of returning to the Dodger bullpen, likely sometime in the coming week. This ought to conclude Tanner Scott’s run as an elite fantasy closer. Scott is nowhere near droppable, though, until we do, in fact, see Díaz return to the closing role effectively. Check back next week.

 

PIT

With Gregory Soto still rebounding from a terrible June, Mason Montgomery picked up his first save of the season on July 11, just before the All-Star break. To be fair, this came in the second game of a doubleheader in which Soto had already earned a save of his own.  I see little changing in the Pittsburgh pen, but I’ll at least anoint Montgomery as the next man in line on my watchlist below.

 

SF

Caleb Kilian’s grip on closing duties in San Fran may be slipping if not lost entirely. Kilian is the only Giant with a one-inning save in the last month, but he put up an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in that timeframe. Erik Miller has seen similarly high-leverage work of late, and has been phenomenal. Miller hasn’t allowed an earned run since June 12, a stretch in which he’s put up a 14:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 9.2 innings. Miller enters my watchlist below, as Kilian’s spot in the middle of my rankings is more precarious than it seems.

 

Saves – Top 10 (<=60%-rostered Yahoo)

Tanner Scott and Elvis Alvarado exit my rankings this week; Grant Taylor and Ryan Zeferjahn reenter.

1. Yoendrys Gómez – MIN (31%)
2. Gregory Soto – PIT (35%)
3. Tyler Wells – BAL (18%)
4. Grant Taylor – CHW (26%)
5. Alex Lange – KC (15%)
6. Caleb Kilian – SF (10%)
7. Kirby Yates – LAA (6%)
8. Ryan Zeferjahn – LAA (2%)
9. Jordan Romano – COL (5%)
10. Clayton Beeter – WSH (12%)

The Watchlist: Michael Petersen (MIA), Erik Miller (SF), Steven Cruz (KC), Mason Montgomery (PIT), Tejay Antone (CIN)
Temporary Add: Tanner Scott (LAD), Jacob Webb (CHC)

 

Holds

 

Top 10 (<=5%-rostered)

Brent Headrick (8%) and Steven Okert (7%) are no longer eligible. Rising names among setup men include Brandyn Garcia, Jonathan Bowlan, and Mason Montgomery.

1. Brandyn Garcia – ARI (4%)
2. Colin Holderman – CLE (5%)
3. Edgardo Henriquez – LAD (2%)
4. Tyron Guerrero – BOS (5%)
5. Jonathan Bowlan – PHI (1%)
6. Gabe Speier – SEA (4%)
7. Mason Montgomery – PIT (3%)
8. Juan Morillo – ARI (4%)
9. Brooks Raley – NYM (3%)
10. Jack Dreyer – LAD (3%)

 

NAMES TO WATCH: Samy Natera Jr. (<1%) continued to impress with two holds, a win, and an absurd 13:1 strikeout ratio over the last two weeks. Natera’s teammate Sam Bachman (1%) is regaining trust with three consecutive dominant holds following a horrific blowup on July 7. Justin Slaten (3%) continues to rack up the strikeouts (30.3% rate this season), and has otherwise stabilized after a terrible run from late May to late June. Evan Phillips (1%) has struck out seven batters while walking just one since returning from the injured list in early July, but has also given up an earned run in three of his five appearances. Dylan Dodd (1%) is now entrenched in a high-leverage role in Atlanta, racking up five holds and two wins since July 1.

 

SPRPs

 

Top 10 (Yahoo-eligible)

Rising names among SPRPs this week include Grant Taylor, Mason Montgomery, and Jordan Hicks.

1. Jacob Latz – TEX (67%)
2. Grant Taylor – CHW (26%)
3. Yoendrys Gómez – MIN (31%)
4. Didier Fuentes – ATL (9%)
5. Tyler Wells – BAL (18%)
6. Mason Montgomery – PIT (3%)
7. Jack Dreyer – LAD (3%)
8. Andrew Morris – MIN (9%)
9. Bradgley Rodriguez – SD (1%)
10. Jordan Hicks – CHW (1%)

 

NAMES TO WATCH: Jovani Morán (<1%) is my top runner-up this week; his excellent performance has started to earn higher-leverage looks, leading to a win and a hold in the last two weeks. White Sox teammates Sean Newcomb (3%) and Bryan Hudson (1%) both continue to thrive in a bullpen stacked with SPRPs. Kai-Wei Teng (2%) returned to the bullpen this week, where he’s been phenomenal all season (5.52 ERA, .278 AVG as a starter; 1.61 ERA, .145 AVG as a reliever). Tyler Holton (8%) ain’t flashy, but he’s given up just two earned runs since the beginning of June, and is up to nine holds on the season.