Waiver Relief: Week 16

Due to some scheduling conflicts, Waiver Relief is two weeks removed from its last issue, which means I’ve got some catching up to do. That’s easier said than done, as a bunch of closer roles have come into question, and the trade deadline approaches. I’ll touch on the deadline more in upcoming issues, but it makes for a difficult game to play. Anyone can recommend stashing Garrett Whitlock in case Aroldis Chapman gets dealt, only to see Whitlock himself get shipped off as well.

For the time being, I’ll stick to current rosters and existing dynamics. As usual, I’ll lead with an update on closers around the league, followed by some rising names to watch alongside my complete waiver rankings for holds and SPRPs.

(stats updated through Thursday, 7/9)

 

Closer Notes

 

ATH

Fooled me twice. Elvis Alvarado makes for the second Athletics closer this season – following Jack Perkins – to get me fired up only to lose the job in a couple weeks. In Alvarado’s (and my) defense, his post-callup numbers still look great (3.95 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 13.17 K/9), but a few poorly-timed meatballs were enough to remove him from the ninth inning. This bullpen is enough of a scattered mess for fantasy purposes that Alvarado now merely clings to the bottom of my closer rankings below.

 

BAL

Closer Ryan Helsley was placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation for the second time this season. Multiple sources have reported that Helsley is seeking a second opinion on his injury, which doesn’t bode well. In his absence, Tyler Wells has become Baltimore’s frontrunner for saves. Wells picked up two of the Orioles’ three saves since Helsley hit the shelf, with Andrew Kittredge nabbing the third after Wells instead faced the top of the Cubs’ order in the eighth. Expect the Orioles to continue with this sort of mix-and-match approach, and keep in mind that Félix Bautista even has a shot at returning before season’s end. Still, Wells enters my closer rankings for the first time this season, and continues to climb my SPRP rankings as well.

 

CIN

Emilio Pagán was activated from the injured list, and should certainly be rostered universally. However, if he never does rediscover good form, which so far seems quite possible, I’ll note the emergence of Tejay Antone as a potential handcuff. Antone has had a terrific season (2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) and looks like the next man in line now that Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft are both out of the picture. Antone makes his first appearance on my closer watchlist below.

 

COL

Jordan Romano is the Rockies’ closer now. No, really, look it up. It’s incredible that Romano seems to have only two places in baseball, either as a closer or off of a roster entirely. It goes without saying that Romano isn’t remotely trustworthy and is pitching for the worst team possible, but simply being a closer is enough to make for some fantasy value. Romano enters near the bottom of my rankings as a desperation option only.

 

KC

Alex Lange remains the only Royal with a save (eight, actually) since Lucas Erceg lost his job as closer. He also has an ERA of 12.00 and a WHIP of 2.00 over the last 30 days, following a recent pair of spectacular blowups. I can’t dethrone Lange just yet, but keep an eye on Steven Cruz. Cruz’s season-long numbers look abysmal, but in the last month he’s surrendered just four earned runs while striking out 17 batters across 14 innings. He’s a fringe watchlist candidate in deeper leagues.

 

MIA

Closer Pete Fairbanks has to be on thin ice following another rough stretch that put his ERA at 6.75 on the season. While some of Fairbanks’ peripherals still support a rebound (3.34 SIERA, 30.2% strikeout rate), he’s walking batters at a 9.5% clip and getting absolutely clobbered, with some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics (24.7% groundball, 12.5% barrel, 91.5 mph average exit velocity). He’s still Miami’s closer, but if he ever isn’t, I would hate to not be the guy rostering Michael Petersen. Petersen shares some of Fairbanks’ woes (also a 9.5% walk rate), but his xBA of .190 and wOBA of .251 support his 2.92 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He’s also drastically improved of late, having walked just two batters in 13.2 innings in the last month.

With the Marlins in the thick of a playoff race, it’s hard to imagine they hold out much longer. If Fairbanks blows another save or two, Petersen becomes the highest-priority target among all current non-closers.

 

PIT

A bad run from closer Gregory Soto has the Pirates bullpen starting to look like the dreaded c-word: committee. Still, despite Soto’s poor form and mixed usage, he remains the only Pirate with a one-inning save in months, and has 11 of the Pirates’ 17 saves to date. While Soto does take a hit in my rankings, it’s unclear who to prioritize behind him. My money would be on Yohan Ramírez, who despite his horrific command (13.9% walk rate) is on a run of 15 scoreless innings. Mason Montgomery is always intriguing, but as a lefty, seems more likely to function as a fireman/matchup specialist than a typical closer. For now, this is more of a situation to watch than to act on, but Ramírez does land on my watchlist for the first time this season.

 

Saves – Top 10 (<=60%-rostered Yahoo)

Jacob Latz (66%) is finally no longer eligible. New entries include Tyler Wells and Jordan Romano.

1. Tanner Scott – LAD (53%)
2. Yoendrys Gómez – MIN (27%)
3. Caleb Kilian – SF (15%)
4. Kirby Yates – LAA (6%)
5. Gregory Soto – PIT (37%)
6. Tyler Wells – BAL (17%)
7. Alex Lange – KC (22%)
8. Clayton Beeter – WSH (12%)
9. Jordan Romano – COL (5%)
10. Elvis Alvarado – ATH (4%)

The Watchlist: Michael Petersen (MIA), Andrew Kittredge (BAL), Steven Cruz (KC), Yohan Ramírez (PIT), Tejay Antone (CIN)
Temporary Add: Jacob Webb (CHC)

 

Holds

 

NAMES TO WATCH:  Evan Phillips (2%) was reinstated from the injured list on Monday and could quickly make his way back to high leverage. Dylan Dodd (<1%) has become one of the Braves’ best setup options. A.J. Minter (1%) is quickly rising the Mets’ bullpen hierarchy after a late start to the season. Samy Natera Jr. (<1%) has been absolutely lights out besides one blowup last Saturday. Cam Booser (<1%) is a 34-year-old lefty, but has put up a 24 K-BB% in his first 13.1 innings.

 

Top 10 (<=5%-rostered)

Michael Petersen (8%) is no longer eligible. Rising names among setup men include Brent Headrick, Tyron Guerrero, and Jonathan Bowlan.

1. Colin Holderman – CLE (4%)
2. Edgardo Henriquez – LAD (2%)
3. Brent Headrick – NYY (3%)
4. Tyron Guerrero – BOS (4%)
5. Brandyn Garcia – ARI (2%)
6. Gabe Speier – SEA (5%)
7. Steven Okert – HOU (4%)
8. Jonathan Bowlan – PHI (<1%)
9. Yennier Cano – BAL (2%)
10. Brooks Raley – NYM (3%)

 

SPRPs

 

NAMES TO WATCH: Jovani Morán (<1%) returned from injury and continued to flash his strikeout upside; he’ll be a top 10 entry as soon as he sees some counting stats. Jordan Hicks (<1%) is on a tear since returning from injury in late June, with a 12:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over seven innings. Keider Montero (15%) shifted to the bullpen recently, and could become a high-leverage arm for a Detroit club in desperate need of them.

 

Top 10 (Yahoo-eligible)

Rising names among SPRPs this week include Mason Montgomery, Andrew Morris, and Bradgley Rodriguez.

1. Jacob Latz – TEX (66%)
2. Yoendrys Gómez – MIN (27%)
3. Didier Fuentes – ATL (9%)
4. Grant Taylor – CHW (17%)
5. Tyler Wells – BAL (17%)
6. Sean Newcomb – CHW (3%)
7. Jack Dreyer – LAD (3%)
8. Mason Montgomery – PIT (2%)
9. Andrew Morris – MIN (5%)
10. Bradgley Rodriguez – SD (1%)