2023 Division Preview: NL Central

The offseason is usually about building momentum for the next season. But when it comes to the National League Central, the five teams in the division must have hit the snooze bar a few times. Only two noteworthy free agents were signed by Central teams and there were no major trades.

What is the end result as Opening Day 2023 approaches? The St. Louis Cardinals, who easily pulled away to win the division in 2022, are the hands-down favorite to recapture the Central title again this year. The Milwaukee Brewers, who had their franchise-record streak of three consecutive postseason appearances snapped with a dreadful close to 2022, retooled their offense without a key acquisition and didn’t bolster their bullpen. Many expect the Chicago Cubs to be a significant threat after adding free-agent shortstop Dansby Swanson, while the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are hoping to find a little magic fairy dust in 2023.

Chicago Cubs

2022 Record: 74-88 (.457 W%)

Notable Roster Changes

Additions: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Jameson Taillon, OF-1B Cody Bellinger, LHP Drew Smyly, 1B Eric Hosmer, 1B-OF Trey Mancini, C Tucker Barnhart, RHP Brad Boxberger, RHP Michael Fulmer, 1B-3B Edwin Ríos

Subtractions: C Willson Contreras, OF Jason Heyward, LHP Wade Miley, OF-DH Franmil Reyes

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP	Name	Position	vs. LHP	Name	Position
1	Nico Hoerner	2B	1	Nico Hoerner	2B
2	Dansby Swanson	SS	2	Dansby Swanson	SS
3	Ian Happ	LF	3	Ian Happ	LF
4	Trey Mancini	RF	4	Trey Mancini	RF
5	Cody Bellinger	CF	5	Christopher Morel	CF
6	Eric Hosmer	1B	6	Eric Hosmer	1B
7	Patrick Wisdom	3B	7	Patrick Wisdom	3B
8	Edwin Ríos	DH	8	Nick Madrigal	DH
9	Tucker Barnhart	C	9	Yan Gomes	C

Projected Bench

Player	Position	Bats
Yan Gomes	C	R
Nick Madrigal	IF	R
Zach McKinstry	IF-OF	L
Christopher Morel	IF-OF	R

After finishing the 2022 season 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, the Cubs addressed their lineup with three free-agent acquisitions. The biggest of those is shortstop Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177 million), who slashed .277/.329/.447 with 25 homers and 96 RBI for an OPS+ of 115. The other two are risk/reward signings.

Outfielder-first baseman Trey Mancini (two years, $14 million) and center fielder-first baseman Cody Bellinger (one year, $17.5 million) received short-term deals as they have something to prove. Mancini slashed .239/.319/.391 with 18 homers and 56 RBI between the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros, while 2019 NL MVP Bellinger was at .210/.265/.389 with 19 homers, 68 RBI and 14 steals. Any sort of a rebound by Bellinger would be big and that could come with the change in the shift rules, opening up opportunities for left-handed power hitters.

As spring training tends to do, the offense hit a snag when right fielder Seiya Suzuki came down with a moderate oblique strain, which will sideline him temporarily. Suzuki, who slashed .262/.336/.433 with 14 homers and 46 RBI in 111 games, came into camp slightly bulked, which could have contributed to this injury. Tucker Barnhart was signed to replace Willson Contreras behind the plate and the former Detroit Tigers backstop is nowhere near the offensive threat (OPS+: Contreras 128, Barnhart 64), albeit considered to be a better defender. Home runs figure to be a big part of the Cubs’ attempt to score more runs, but will enough guys get on base ahead of those long balls?

Projected Starting Rotation

Order	Player	Throws
1	Marcus Stroman	RHP
2	Jameson Taillon	RHP
3	Justin Steele	LHP
4	Drew Smyly	LHP
5	Hayden Wesneski	RHP

Similar to the offense, the Cubs needed to reinforce the rotation via free agency. But that led to only one noteworthy signing: right-hander Jameson Taillon (four years, $68 million). Another veteran, left-hander Drew Smyly, was also added on a two-year, $19 million deal. Neither moves the Cubs up a tier in their bid to be a contender.

Right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who underwent season-ending right shoulder surgery in July, is unlikely to return until the end of May at the earliest. Even then, Hendricks’ effectiveness has waned in recent seasons. Taillon was effective for the New York Yankees in 2022, going 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA (110 ERA+) and 1.19 WHIP. He figures to slot in at the No. 2 spot behind right-hander Marcus Stroman, who posted a 6-7 record with a 3.50 ERA (117 ERA+) and 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts. Neither is an ace.

Joining Smyly in the back of the rotation are left-hander Justin Steele and right-hander Hayden Wesneski. Steele and Wesneski are young and have a bit of potential, but not enough to elevate them into the top-two spots in the rotation.

Projected Bullpen

Role	Player	Throws
CL	Brandon Hughes	RHP
SU	Michael Fulmer	RHP
SU	Brad Boxberger	RHP
SU	Adbert Alzolay	RHP
Mid	Rowan Wick	RHP
Mid	Julian Merryweather	RHP
Mid	Michael Rucker	RHP
Long	Keegan Thompson	RHP

Who will close? Does it matter? It would seem right-hander Brandon Hughes, who had eight saves during his rookie season, will enter 2023 with the title of closer, but that seems tenuous at best.

Veteran right-handers Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer were brought in to fill the other late-inning roles and could step in if Hughes struggles in the ninth. Otherwise, the bullpen is young and remains a work in progress, with righty Rowan Wick the most experienced of the bunch. The Cubs will need more depth here as the season transpires.

Storylines to Follow

Quick: Name the team with the biggest Opening Day payroll in the NL Central. If you said the Chicago Cubs, you probably cheated somewhere along the line or live life on the team message boards, but you would be correct. At $179.4 million, the Cubs ranked 12th in MLB and are $5.2 million ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals, according to Cots.

That should be a surprise considering the team isn’t viewed as a contender this season, although improvement and a flirtation with a .500 record are expected. The roster as currently constructed will be competitive with the Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers, but could also be frustrating to watch if certain gambles, such as Bellinger, don’t produce.

The pitching also feels thin. What happens when injuries hit the rotation, much less the bullpen? There isn’t a whole lot at the top of the Cubs’ farm system, with right-hander Hayden Wesneski likely to get a quick call if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

It will be a big season for outfielder Ian Happ, who is a free agent after 2023. Will he put up big numbers or struggle under the pressure of his impending payday?

Ever since trading away Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Báez, the Cubs have been rebuilding, although not tearing the roster down completely, still wanting to put a solid product on the field. Contreras is the latest subtraction, but that was countered by Swanson’s signing. Swanson and Nico Hoerner will provide terrific defense up the middle on the infield. The defense does figure to be improved after ranking in the bottom third of the MLB with a .984 fielding percentage and a league average mark in Baseball Reference’s defensive efficiency (.697). Still, the roster feels more patchwork than building blocks.

Cincinnati Reds

2022 Record: 62-100 (.383 W%)

Notable Roster Changes

Additions: 1B-OF Wil Myers, RHP Luke Weaver, C Luke Maile, C Curt Casali, OF-1B Will Benson, IF Kevin Newman, OF-IF Nick Solak

Subtractions: 3B-1B Mike Moustakas, C Austin Romine, RHP Justin Wilson, IF Donovan Solano, IF Kyle Farmer

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP	Name	Position	vs. LHP	Name	Position
1	Jonathan India	2B	1	Jonathan India	2B
2	Joey Votto	DH	2	Joey Votto	DH
3	Tyler Stephenson	C	3	Tyler Stephenson	C
4	Jake Fraley	RF	4	Jake Fraley	RF
5	Wil Myers	1B	5	Wil Myers	1B
6	TJ Friedl	LF	6	TJ Friedl	LF
7	Kevin Newman	SS	7	Kevin Newman	SS
8	Will Benson	CF	8	Will Benson	CF
9	Spencer Steer	3B	9	Spencer Steer	3B

Projected Bench

Player	Position	Bats
Curt Casali	C-1B	R
Luke Maile	C	R
Chad Pinder	IF-OF	R
Stuart Fairchild	OF	R

If you take away 15-year veteran Joey Votto and newly acquired Wil Myers, with nine seasons under his belt, the Reds will put out one of the least experienced offenses in the MLB. But such is life in one of the slower rebuilds. While there is some hope in the farm system, it is likely a couple of years away from making an impact.

It adds up to little to no improvement from an offense that was 23rd in runs scored (4.00 per game) and 26th in OPS (.676). Relying on Votto and Myers is no sure thing, either. Votto is coming off a season cut short by a tear in his left rotator cuff. Votto, a six-time All-Star and 2010 NL MVP, slashed a measly .205/.319/.370 with 11 homers and 41 RBI in 322 at-bats and is 39 years old as he hits Opening Day. Myers, a free agent signed away from the San Diego Padres on a one-year, $7.5 million deal, is hoping to rekindle his career after slashing .261/.315/.398 with seven homers and 41 RBI in 261 ABs. Myers is 32 and could find hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park to his liking.

New shortstop Kevin Newman, acquired in a trade with the Pirates in November, has the next-most experience at four MLB seasons. Power-hitting third baseman Spencer Steer, acquired from the Minnesota Twins at the 2022 trade deadline for pitcher Tyler Mahle, made his MLB debut with Cincinnati and is seen as part of the Reds’ future. There would seem to be pressure for second baseman Jonathan India to have a big season after he had a .249/.327/.378 slash line with 10 homers and 41 RBI.

Order	Player	Throws
1	Hunter Greene	RHP
2	Nick Lodolo	LHP
3	Graham Ashcraft	RHP
4	Luke Weaver	RHP
5	Luis Cessa	RHP

Hunter Greene proved to be as electric as expected during his rookie season. The right-hander, whose fastball routinely surpasses 100 mph, went 5-13 with a 4.44 ERA (101 ERA+) and 162 strikeouts in 125⅔ innings. Exhibiting better control (3.4 walks per nine innings) and further limiting hits (7.4 hits per nine) will vault Greene into the elite conversation. But can that happen while the rest of the team is struggling? That is up to Greene.

Another bright spot to emerge in 2022 was left-hander Nick Lodolo, who posted a 4-7 record with a 3.66 ERA (122 ERA+) and 131 strikeouts in 103⅓ innings. Right-hander Graham Ashcraft provides the third member of the trio of young guns the Reds are building around. Ashcraft went 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA (92 ERA+) with 71 strikeouts in 105 innings. Veteran right-handers Luke Weaver and Luis Cessa will try to provide stability at the back of the rotation.

Projected Bullpen

Role	Player	Throws
CL	Alexis Díaz	RHP
SU	Lucas Sims	RHP
SU	Reiver Sanmartin	LHP
Mid	Buck Farmer	RHP
Mid	Daniel Norris	LHP
Mid	Ian Gibaut	RHP
Mid	Fernando Cruz	RHP
Long	Connor Overton	RHP

Reds relievers were 28th in the MLB in 2022 with a 4.72 ERA and had just 53 save opportunities, which was 29th. Most of the 2023 bullpen will be familiar faces, with Alexis Díaz likely to get a bulk of the save chances. Right-hander Lucas Sims, left-hander Reiver Sanmartin and righty Buck Farmer will be the other go-to relievers. Veteran lefty Daniel Norris could provide a bit of stability in a shaky situation.

Storylines to Follow

While team President Phil Castellini continues to stick his foot in his mouth off the field, Reds fans will need to be very patient yet again this season. And hopefully, there is not a repeat of last season’s start, which saw the Reds win just four of their first 27 games. Greene and Lodolo provide the biggest hope, with Steer potentially joining them from the offensive side this year after hitting 25 homers at four stops between two franchises last season.

Another question that will linger all season is the status of Votto, who is in the final year of a 10-year, $225 million contract. He has been the face of the franchise for more than a decade but turns 40 in September. His health and production took a big drop in 2022, a year after receiving NL MVP votes. Will this be his final season? Much depends on how he rebounds. At least he will be fun to follow on social media.

Any significant injury on the infield could bring the MLB debut of top prospect Elly De La Cruz, a 6-foot-5 shortstop with terrific speed and power. Regardless, trying to stay out of the NL Central basement will be the goal of this Reds team.

Milwaukee Brewers

2022 Record: 86-76 (.531 W%)

Notable Roster Changes

Additions: C William Contreras, OF Jesse Winker, LHP Wade Miley, IF Abraham Toro, 3B-OF Brian Anderson, RHP Justin Wilson, RHP Javy Guerra, RHP Bryse Wilson, RHP Joel Payamps, IF-OF Owen Miller

Subtractions: 2B Kolten Wong, C Omar Narváez, OF Hunter Renfroe, LHP Taylor Rogers, OF-DH Andrew McCutchen, LHP Brent Suter, RHP Justin Topa

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP	Name	Position	vs. LHP	Name	Position
1	Christian Yelich	LF	1	Christian Yelich	LF
2	Willy Adames	SS	2	Willy Adames	SS
3	Rowdy Tellez	1B	3	Rowdy Tellez	1B
4	William Contreras	C	4	William Contreras	C
5	Jesse Winker	DH	5	Jesse Winker	DH
6	Luis Urías	3B	6	Luis Urías	3B
7	Garrett Mitchell	CF	7	Garrett Mitchell	CF
8	Brian Anderson	RF	8	Brian Anderson	RF
9	Brice Turang	2B	9	Brice Turang	2B

Player	Position	Bats
Victor Caratini	C	S
Brian Anderson	IF-OF	R
Mike Brosseau	IF-OF	R
Keston Hiura	IF-OF	R

The Brewers had a better offense than most think they had in 2022. The Crew finished 10th in the MLB with 4.48 runs per game, had the 10th-best OPS at .724 and hit the third-most home runs at 219. Factoring into that perception was a .245 batting average with runners in scoring position, which was 20th. So the Brewers swapped out nearly half of their everyday bats, trading second baseman Kolten Wong to the Seattle Mariners and right fielder Hunter Renfroe to the Los Angeles Angels, while catcher Omar Narváez and outfielder-DH Andrew McCutchen walked in free agency.

The only significant addition to fill those voids was catcher William Contreras, who was acquired in a three-team deal with the Atlanta Braves and Oakland A’s. Contreras was an All-Star last season with the Braves, slashing .260/.338/.471 with 20 homers and 45 RBI (138 OPS+). Jesse Winker could benefit from the change of scenery and a return to the NL Central after a neck injury hampered his 2022 production with the Seattle Mariners (.219/.344/.344, 14 HRs, 53 RBI, 103 OPS+). The right-handed slugger figures to start the season as the DH, but could play in right field.

To fill the other voids, the Brewers are relying on internal options or signings that are more risk/reward. That plan was already put to the test with outfielder Tyrone Taylor sidelined for at least the first month of the season with an elbow injury. He was likely to play a lot in right and center field. Now, it would appear Brian Anderson will be the starter in right. Anderson has battled injuries the past two seasons with the Miami Marlins, slashing .222/.311/.346 with eight homers and 28 RBI (career-worst 87 OPS+) in 98 games.

Or perhaps one of the Brewers’ top outfield prospects, Sal Frelick, could push his way onto the Opening Day roster. Mike Brosseau’s early spring offensive spree could earn him more time at third base, with Luis Urías shifting over to second. Second base could see a handful of bodies, with Keston Hiura, prospect Brice Turang and trade pickups Owen Miller and Abraham Toro battling for roster spots and playing time.

Getting more contact with runners in scoring position holds the key to this offense. Of course, sbortstop Willy Adames will be pivotal. The energetic Adames slashed .238/.298/.458 with 31 homers and 98 RBI in 2022.

Projected Starting Rotation

Order	Player	Throws
1	Corbin Burnes	RHP
2	Brandon Woodruff	RHP
3	Freddy Peralta	RHP
4	Eric Lauer	LHP
5	Wade Miley	LHP

In right-handers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have a 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation that can compete with any team. Burnes had a subpar season by his high standards as the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA and an NL-leading 243 strikeouts in a career-high 202 innings (134 ERA+). Will he channel his emotions following his highly publicized arbitration loss and be better than ever?

Woodruff is a rock but had health issues last season. Woodruff battled Reynaud’s syndrome, which restricts blood flow in extremities, in his pitching fingers. Still, he posted a 13-4 record with a 3.05 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 153⅓ innings (129 ERA+).

Right-hander Freddy Peralta battled a shoulder injury last season and was limited to 17 starts and 78 innings. He had a 3.58 ERA and 86 strikeouts (110 ERA+) as he continued to become a more well-rounded pitcher. Left-hander Eric Lauer was reliable, making 29 starts and a 3.69 ERA with 157 strikeouts in 158⅔ innings (107 ERA+).

Lefty Aaron Ashby had been slotted for the fifth spot but was diagnosed with a torn labrum and likely won’t be back until June. Right-hander Adrian Houser or lefty Wade Miley will likely now take that last spot in the rotation. Considering Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer each had slightly down performances, expect a bounce-back here.

Projected Bullpen

Role	Player	Throws
CL	Devin Williams	RHP
SU	Matt Bush	RHP
SU	Peter Strzelecki	RHP
SU	Hoby Milner	LHP
Mid	Javy Guerra	RHP
Mid	Bryse Wilson	RHP
Mid	Joel Payamps	RHP
Long	Adrian Houser	RHP

Right-hander Devin Williams and his Airbender changeup took over closer duties following the disastrous Josh Hader trade. In a career-high 65 games, Williams had 15 saves in 17 chances, with a 1.93 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 60⅔ innings. Setting up Williams will be right-handers Matt Bush and Peter Strzelecki.

Hoby Milner proved to be a nice find as a lefty bullpen weapon last season. After that, it comes down to performance, with the exception perhaps of Houser if he isn’t in the rotation. There were no major additions to the relief corps, with the Crew again playing the margins.

Storylines to Follow

How do the Brewers wipe away the aftertaste of 2022? The Crew had a four-game division lead over the Cardinals on July 30 but saw that evaporate quickly, exacerbated by the stunning Hader trade. The trade was stunning both in timing and the lack of return. Of the four players the Brewers acquired from the San Diego Padres, only prospect left-hander Robert Gasser remains in the system (yes, Esteury Ruiz resulted in the addition of Contreras). Still, the end-of-season slide resulted in the Brewers only missing the playoffs by one game.

Left fielder Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, was a slightly better producer last season after shifting to the leadoff spot, but a far cry from what earned him a nine-year, $215 million extension. He reduced his pronounced leg kick in the offseason and could benefit from the shift ban. Will that return him closer to his MVP-level seasons of 2018 and 2019?

At this moment, there are a lot of moving pieces between second and third as well as right field. Urias’ athleticism benefits him defensively, but his hitting needs to take the next step after a 2022 slash line of .239/.335/.404 with 16 homers and 47 RBI (110 OPS+).

Craig Counsell has never won an NL Manager of the Year award (he finished second twice) and his skills could be tested as much as ever this season, with as much pressure to produce as there has been since taking over early in the 2015 season. Despite not having a contract past this season, Counsell isn’t on the hot seat due to what he has accomplished, but getting this group to play with a chip on its shoulder would go a long way to allay the concerns of a fan base that felt the offseason was very underwhelming.

Pittsburgh Pirates

2022 Record: 62-100 (.383 W%)

Notable Roster Changes

Additions: 1B Carlos Santana, LHP Jarlín García, RHP Vince Velasquez, C Austin Hedges, LHP Rich Hill, OF Andrew McCutchen, 1B Ji-Man Choi, OF-1B Connor Joe

Subtractions: OF Ben Gamel, C Roberto Pérez, IF Kevin Newman, RHP Bryse Wilson, RHP Zach Thompson

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP	Name	Position	vs. LHP	Name	Position
1	Oneil Cruz	SS	1	Oneil Cruz	SS
2	Bryan Reynolds	LF	2	Bryan Reynolds	LF
3	Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B	3	Ke’Bryan Hayes	3B
4	Ji-Man Choi	1B	4	Ji-Man Choi	1B
5	Andrew McCutchen	RF	5	Andrew McCutchen	RF
6	Carlos Santana	DH	6	Carlos Santana	DH
7	Jack Suwinski	CF	7	Jack Suwinski	CF
8	Rodolfo Castro	2B	8	Rodolfo Castro	2B
9	Austin Hedges	C	9	Austin Hedges	C

Projected Bench

Player	Position	Bats
Kevin Plawecki	C	R
Ji Hwan Bae	IF-OF	L
Connor Joe	OF-1B	R
Travis Swaggerty	OF	L

The biggest question revolves around center fielder Bryan Reynolds and is two-pronged. First, will Reynolds still be with the team on Opening Day after demanding a trade this offseason? Second, how will Reynolds produce at the plate with all the uncertainty about his status? Being under team control for another two seasons beyond 2023, Reynolds has been a trade target for contenders. The switch-hitter had a .262/.345/.461 slash line with 27 homers, 62 RBI and 74 runs scored. He is a focal point of an improving Pirates core.

Oneil Cruz, a 6’7″ shortstop, hit 17 homers, drove in 54 RBI and stole 10 bases in 87 games, putting up a .233/.294/.450 slash line. He is a dynamic presence at the top of the lineup.

In both a sentimental and a leadership move, the Bucs brought back outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who played from 2009 to 2017 for the Pirates, winning the NL MVP in 2013. He hit 17 homers and drove in 69 RBI with the Brewers last season, primarily as a DH but also seeing considerable action in the outfield as well. McCutchen figures to be a corner outfielder after the Pirates signed Carlos Santana to be their DH. Santana had 19 homers and 60 RBI with the Kansas City Royals and will hit in the middle of the order.

Another key addition was first baseman Ji-Man Choi, who was picked up in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Choi slashed .233/.341/.388 with 11 homers and 52 RBI in 113 games. The presence of those veterans should relieve a little pressure from third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who slashed .244/.314/.345 with seven homers, 41 RBI, 20 steals and had a bWAR of 4.3.

Projected Starting Rotation

Order	Player	Throws
1	Mitch Keller	RHP
2	Roansy Contreras	RHP
3	Rich Hill	LHP
4	JT Brubaker	RHP
5	Vince Velasquez	RHP

There is an interesting mix of veterans and youth in the Pirates’ rotation. Right-hander Mitch Keller was 5-12 with a 3.91 ERA (106 ERA+) and 138 strikeouts in 159 innings. Not exactly ace material, but more than serviceable.

Right-hander Roansy Contreras is the one to keep an eye on. The 23-year-old went 5-5 with a 3.79 ERA (110 ERA+), striking out 86 in 95 innings. Another young righty is JT Brubaker, who is a bit more of a work in progress. Brubaker struggled with his control, walking 3.4 per nine innings en route to a 4.69 ERA (88 ERA+) and 147 strikeouts in 144 innings.

Veterans Rich Hill, the lone left-hander in the rotation, and Vince Velasquez, both newcomers to the Pirates, round out the rotation. Waiting in the wings is another exciting right-hander in Luis Ortiz.

Projected Bullpen

Role	Player	Throws
CL	David Bednar	RHP
SU	Wil Crowe	RHP
SU	Duane Underwood Jr.	RHP
Mid	Yerry De Los Santos	RHP
Mid	Chase De Jong	RHP
Mid	Colin Holderman	RHP
Mid	Dauri Moreta	RHP
Long	Jose Hernandez	LHP

A couple of surprising developments from last season were right-handers David Bednar and Wil Crowe. Bednar built on a nice rookie season to become an All-Star closer in 2022, posting 19 saves in 45 appearances. Crowe had a 95 ERA+ and was a fairly reliable late-inning guy a season after being in the rotation.

The entire bullpen is young and full of potential. Righty Duane Underwood Jr. is the most experienced reliever with three seasons of MLB action. Jose Hernandez, a Rule 5 pick from the Los Angeles Dodgers, should have plenty of rope to prove himself.

Reynolds’ future will be discussed endlessly until one of two things happens: he is traded or he signs an extension. How that affects the rest of the team should be minimized by having McCutchen and Santana in the locker room. Those two veterans, plus catcher Austin Hedges, balance the youth on the roster, which is plentiful.

How much will this team grow? That will say a lot about whether Reynolds changes his tune and decides to stay. The offense figures to be steady enough, but the question will be how the pitching performs. Contreras developing into an ace-like starter could help make the Pirates similar to last year’s Baltimore Orioles, although probably not to that scale.

There are more prospects on the way. Endy Rodriguez is ahead of catching counterpart Henry Davisand could be in the mix this season. Right-hander Quinn Priester might get the call after Ortiz if injuries take out a couple of starting pitchers. The potential is there to finish third in the division, but also to repeat a last-place finish.

St. Louis Cardinals

2022 Record: 93-69 (.574 W%)

Notable Roster Changes

Additions: C Willson Contreras, RHP Anthony Misiewicz

Subtractions: C Yadier Molina, DH-1B Albert Pujols, LHP José Quintana, RHP Alex Reyes

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP	Name	Position	vs. LHP	Name	Position
1	Tommy Edman	SS	1	Tommy Edman	SS
2	Tyler O’Neill	CF	2	Tyler O’Neill	CF
3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	3	Paul Goldschmidt	1B
4	Nolan Arenado	3B	4	Nolan Arenado	3B
5	Willson Contreras	CF	5	Willson Contreras	CF
6	Lars Nootbaar	LF	6	Lars Nootbaar	LF
7	Jordan Walker	DH	7	Jordan Walker	DH
8	Brendan Donovan	2B	8	Brendan Donovan	2B
9	Dylan Carlson	RF	9	Dylan Carlson	RF

Projected Bench

Player	Position	Bats
Andrew Knizner	C	R
Paul DeJong	IF	R
Nolan Gorman	IF	L
Juan Yepez	1B-OF	R

This is a decidedly younger group of position players following the retirements of catcher Yadier Molina and designated hitter Albert Pujols. Former Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras replaces Molina and his extraordinary defense behind the plate while bringing a much better bat. The DH figures to be used on a rotating basis to give players a day off from the field. Still, this was one of the better offenses in the MLB in 2022, tying for fifth in runs scored (4.77) and fifth in OPS (.745).

There shouldn’t be much dropoff this year, but that all depends on how first baseman Paul Goldschmidt performs after winning the NL MVP with a .317/.404/.578 slash line to go along with 35 homers and 115 RBI. That was supported by third baseman Nolan Arenado’s .293/.358/.533 line with 30 homers and 103 RBI. Contreras’ presence should pick up for anything lost there.

Tommy Edman (.265/.324/.400, 32 steals), who took over at shortstop early in 2022, is underrated at the top of the order while having a full season of outfielder Tyler O’Neill back healthy could also be a stabilizing force. O’Neill figures to get a long look in center field this year. Top-hitting prospect Jordan Walker, who has come up as a third baseman, could be a wild card and make the Opening Day roster as an outfielder.

Projected Starting Rotation

Order	Player	Throws
1	Adam Wainwright	RHP
2	Miles Mikolas	RHP
3	Jordan Montgomery	LHP
4	Jack Flaherty	RHP
5	Steven Matz	RHP

Adam Wainwright is back for perhaps his final season in the MLB at the top of the rotation. The right-hander, who turns 42 at the end of August, went 11-12 with a 3.71 ERA (103 ERA+) and 143 strikeouts in 191⅔ innings. He hasn’t missed a start over the last four seasons but took on an extra workload this spring by pitching for the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic. How will that affect him as the season wears on?

Right-hander Miles Mikolas slots in as the No. 2 after going 12-13 with a 3.09 ERA (116 ERA+) and 153 strikeouts in 201⅓ innings. Trade-deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery returns for his first full season with the Cardinals after posting a 9-6 mark and 3.48 ERA (123 ERA+) with 158 strikeouts in 178⅓ innings between St. Louis and the New York Yankees.

With José Quintana now with the New York Mets via free agency, the back end of the rotation looks a little shaky with oft-injured right-hander Jack Flaherty as well as lefty Steven Matz. Flaherty appears healthy this spring, which could be a big boost and make this a very strong rotation through the No. 4 spot. Flaherty has only pitched 52⅓ innings since early June 2021. Dakota Hudson begins the season in the bullpen, along with fellow righty Drew VerHagen, who is bouncing back from hip surgery. Both could jump into the rotation if needed.

Projected Bullpen

Role	Player	Throws
CL	Ryan Helsley	RHP
SU	Giovanny Gallegos	RHP
SU	Andre Pallante	RHP
Mid	Jordan Hicks	RHP
Mid	Génesis Cabrera	LHP
Mid	Chris Stratton	RHP
Mid	Dakota Hudson	RHP
Long	Drew VerHagen	RHP

As with the other parts of the roster, the Cardinals appear to be in good shape in the bullpen. Right-hander Ryan Helsley jumped into the closer role in 2022, earning an All-Star nod and finishing with 19 saves to go along with a 1.25 ERA (306 ERA+). Righty Giovanny Gallegos, who lost the closer role, still finished with 14 saves and a 3.05 ERA (126 ERA+) and will snap up anything Helsley is unavailable for.

As a rookie, last season right-hander Andre Pallante emerged as a reliable late-inning reliever. Pallante appeared in 47 games, including 10 starts, with a 3.17 ERA (121 ERA+). The experimentation with flame-throwing right-hander Jordan Hicks as a starter is likely over. Hicks went 0-4 with a 5.47 ERA in eight starts (26⅓ innings), while posting a 4.37 ERA in 35 innings across 27 relief appearances. With the bullpen housing more than a couple of options to start, this group could see a lot of movement if injuries hit the rotation.

Storylines to Follow

With Molina missing a chunk of 2022 due to injury, the Cardinals already got a taste of life without their star catcher. Now with Molina totally out of the picture, who takes over the void in leadership? With a veteran roster, there shouldn’t be much of an issue, especially with Goldschmidt and Arenado taking a step up in production last season.

But how will the younger guys fit in? Outfielder Lars Nootbaar seems poised for some sort of a bigger role. Outfielder Dylan Carlson figures to be under scrutiny to produce, to the point that he entered spring training battling for a backup spot. Walker could make things complicated in a good way for manager Oliver Marmol. If Walker doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, he will likely be the first position player called up when injuries hit.

With how the rest of the NL Central is shaping up, a hot start to the season could put the Cardinals in cruise control until the playoffs. But there are injury concerns in the rotation between Flaherty and Matz, with 41-year-old Wainwright a candidate to break down.

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2023 Division Preview: NL Central

Steve Drumwright

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