In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Hunter Greene (RHP)
2025 Stats: 107.2 IP | 2.76 ERA | 0.94 WHIP | 31.4 K% | 6.2 BB%
If Greene avoids the IL this season, he’d be the #4 SP with the holy trinity and even spark discussions if he’s better than at least one of them. After all, Greene sat 97+ mph in 2024 and added two ticks more to 99+ mph in 2025 (three on the slider to 89/90 mph!), while improving his ability to throw strikes with his slide piece. And no, it’s not the splitter that is doing all the work – it’s a 50% strike rate offering with a horrific putaway rate – it’s the slider’s ability to go down-and-in that fuels strikeouts against LHB.
You all know the four-seamer is elite (#1 PLV SP four-seamer!) and it really comes down to how often he throws. I don’t see him with the same injury tag as Glasnow, Sale, deGrom, and Snell, but I also have to acknowledge a career high of 150 IP in 2024, sandwiched by two seasons under 115 IP. What was his injury last season? Not upper body as we normally fear for elite velocity arms, but rather a groin strain that bothered him twice across the season. Far better than elbow pain n whatnot, though his body is taking a toll for the massive force needed to create this velocity.
Decide for yourself what is best. 140-150 IP seems fair, and in shallower leagues, his value improves as Greene + the replacement arm off the wire is easily a Top 10 SP.
Quick Take: The four-seamer’s velocity jump with a better feel for strikes with the slider turned Greene into the stud we always wanted him to be. The only hesitation is volume, and we cannot bank on more than 150 frames after eclipsing 115 just once in his last three seasons. I have no idea where to actually rank him, and part of me wants to shout “All SPs have injury risk,” and throw caution to the wind. Your choice.
Nick Lodolo (LHP)
2025 Stats: 156.2 IP | 3.33 ERA | 1.08 WHIP | 24.3 K% | 4.8 BB%
We finally got a long stretch in-season of Lodolo pitching every five days and I was thrilled to see the man in rhythm. A proper SWATCH, Lodolo had a field day against RHB with his changeup, mixing in a sinker above it for groundballs, a four-seamer front-dooring batters up-and-in, and a curveball that he trusted more inside the zone than in 2024 to plenty of success with a 90th percentile ICR.
LHB is more of a struggle for Lodolo than you’d expect. Despite raising his strike rate seven points, his curveball barely missed eclipsing the 60% strike mark, a result of Lodolo frequently tugging his curveball too far into the opposite batter’s box. Southpaws are known for their breakers that demolish their other half and his inability to strike fear in the hearts of LHB with his curve opens the door for damage on his heaters. Unfortunately, Lodolo fails to get his sinker inside to LHB, leading to a middling ICR while his four-seamer gets pummeled as it sits out over the plate – when it doesn’t get passed upon for a called strike, of course.
There’s also an oddity in his arsenal you should know about. His curveball held the same velocity and depth as 2024, but lost three inches of horizontal. It may be the catalyst for his increased zone rate – tighter movement to wrangle, after all – but I can’t say I’m a fan of losing three inches of lateral movement on an 81 mph curveball, especially when he needs to squeeze the most out of it to take down LHB.
This is all to say that Lodolo has a few flaws that may get more exposure in another season. After all, an 80%+ LOB rate is an easy tell for negative regression, and I’m not convinced he can hold a sub 5% walk rate for another season. Toss in the longest season of his career (which still had a finger and groin injury) and I’m fading Lodolo for the year ahead, unless I can grab him after the Top #40 SP are snagged. It’s too much to ask for his LHB approach to shift + keep the same LOB% rate + avoid too much damage in Cincy’s home park + stay healthy for a full year.
Quick Take: Lodolo had a fantastic year in his first season above 120 IP and it’s too much to ask him to replicate it after some good fortune, clear cracks in the armor, and a history of low volume. He should help teams when on the field, though it may be hard to reach his ceiling and a lower floor than 2025 would suggest.
Andrew Abbott (LHP)
2025 Stats: 166.1 IP | 2.87 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | 21.8 K% | 6.3 BB%
I know this sounds wild, but I actually understand him now. Abbott’s 2025 wasn’t a fluke in its entirety. Sure, he limited HRs off the fastball more than expected, which in turn raised his LOB% rate to the commonly unsustainable 80% threshold, but he’s also an improved pitcher and it should work as a standard SWATCH, even with more room to grow.
Let’s start with the longball. His four-seamer has routinely allowed double-digit HRs off the pitch to RHB, but slashed the mark to just five in 2025. Oddly enough, I don’t believe it was the four-seamer itself that did the trick, but rather two shifts. The first was a physical one: He moved closer to first base and throws a bit more cross-body to RHB than before, hiding the ball a little later and getting a touch more action on his offerings. The second was the slowball, which Abbott began to trust and featured it 25% of the time, earning 63% strikes and forcing batters to think twice before chasing heaters. Its increased effectiveness allowed Abbott to go outside more with fastballs, which helped the changeup, and on and on and on. THEY HELPED EACH OTHER, OKAY?
Abbott isn’t just two-pitch against RHB, either. His curveball took a step forward and landed more often in the zone, vastly raising its strike rate as another pitch that catalyzed his near three-point drop in walk rate. There was even a cutter Abbott toyed with to RHB last season. He was able to keep it gloveside consistently and it induced a ton of weak contact, taking advantage of batters who leaned away for the fastball/change. Expect it to become a larger part of his toolkit in 2026, helping him maintain solid ratios.
The blueprint against LHB improved as well. Abbott’s sweeper is the weapon of choice and it gained a few inches of depth without losing velocity, tightening its precision to gravitate toward the down-and-away corner, shaving a heavy number of wild mistakes over the plate or well outside. It’s the breaker you want every southpaw to have, evidenced by a 67% strike rate with 22% SwStr rate at over 30% usage. Beautiful.
If you’d like to suggest Abbott had peak command and his feel will diminish in the year ahead, I understand not fully buying into one season of rhythm. At the same time, the results from 2025 were not egregious based on his skills and could even improve with a step forward in his cutter. More HRs are likely on the horizon, which will vault his ERA well north of 3.00 after the 2.76 bliss on 2025, but the WHIP seems reasonable while the strikeout rate should stick above 20% with his great sweeper and possibly rise if he can keep fine-tuning the changeup and cutter to RHB. I’m a fan.
Quick Take: Abbott’s 2025 was a surprise initially, though his arsenal improved and displayed skills that justified plenty of his success. The changeup and four-seamer became a true combo to RHB, the curveball and sweeper tightened to find more strikes and play their roles, and there’s even a cutter that shows promise for 2026. Even with an uptick in HRs, Abbott should produce another stable season for trusting managers in 12-teamers.
Brady Singer (RHP)
2025 Stats: 169.2 IP | 4.03 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 22.8 K% | 8.4 BB%
I know we all hate this game, but Singer’s 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 32 starts transform into a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP after removing two disaster starts of 7 ER in 2.1 IP. That’s 30 starts of prime Toby goodness + two days of despair. For those in 12-teamers, that’s great. Roto boiz, it doesn’t matter.
I do that exercise to outline the extremes, which are generally not the pitcher you see start-to-start. Singer showcased a Toby who has slowed down his slider for more movement over the last two years and is still figuring out how to get it back to 60%+ strikes against RHB, but the slider generally does its job while I dream for the sinker to jam RHB more. Sadly, LHB are still his greatest foe, as his sinker fares even worse and sliders, cutters, and the rare four-seamers simply aren’t enough to prevent the 55%+ ICR on the pitch. Yikes.
When Singer was traded from Kansas City to Cincinnati, it made sense given Singer’s groundball tendencies, which would limit the damage done by his small home park. And for the most part, yes, that was true – Singer had a 1.01 HR/9, the lowest of his career since 2021 – but his groundball rate plummeted to just 43%, lengths away from his expected 50% clip. That’s all on the sinker, which he refused to land low like he used to, dropping its loLoc 10-15 points to LHB and RHB. Maybe that’s completely fine given the lack of HRs and explains the drop in BABIP (grounders –> flyballs = lower BABIP), though Singer without the groundball tendencies in Cincinnati doesn’t seem like a pairing worthy of a 3.75 ERA and sub 1.20 WHIP, right?
Quick Take: Singer’s inability to find a new weapon (the cutter seems like it could work, but hasn’t yet, and the four-seamer for two-strikes is meh at best) merged with fewer grounders, has me worried for the year ahead. The package is a decent floor in 15-teamers without the ceiling you’re looking for in 12-teamers. You’ll be able to find a Toby off the wire in-season if you need one, trust me.
Chase Burns (RHP)
2025 Stats: 43.1 IP | 4.57 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 35.6 K% | 8.5 BB%
Look at Greene’s analysis. Now look at me. I am the past and the future. The comp is as easy as they come: A two-pitch RHP with a 98/99 mph four-seamer and whiff-heavy slider. His strikeout ability is without doubt after fanning ten batters in four straight starts (no, one inning of a rainout does not count and he even had two strikeouts then), and what may be more impressive was his elite pitch separation – four-seamers up-and-armside, sliders down-and-gloveside – outlining a skilled flamethrower who can actually execute what he’s trying to do. It makes me optimistic that Burns can expand the arsenal in 2026, and we had a glimpse of it with LHB seeing changeups 10% of the time. That slowball has good enough fade to be a proper offering if he can get it down-and-away as intended. It arguably doesn’t even need an adjustment after 60%+ strikes and a 17% SwStr rate last year, and maybe we’re overthinking this. Maybe Burns is already a three-pitch arm and ready to dominate.
Yes, yes, Cincinnati is not a great place for a guy like Burns. Four-seamer/slider arms are traditionally more HR prone than your crafty sinkerballers and that park is…rough. There’s also the question of his four-seamer’s steep attack-angle that can make his 17/18″ of vert four-seamer more hittable than you’d think, but Burns’ command is better than your standard flamethrower. He’ll make it work.
Every time I take another look at Burns, I find myself more convinced. It’s easy to put the HIPSTER label on him or do “the smart thing” and refuse to chase the new hotness with a small sample size and no track record of a full season. On the other hand, his stuff is undeniable, the changeup looks to be a legit #3 pitch as he gets more frames, and I don’t believe his command gets enough credit. Did I just convince myself to draft Burns? Oh jeez, I guess I did.
Quick Take: He’s a two-pitch arm with a 98/99 mph four-seamer and deadly slider, who also has good command and room to grow in his arsenal. He may be a little volatile with batters sitting heater, prone to HRs and an elevated H/9, but the strikeouts will flow, the walks should be fine, and he’s as electric as it gets.
Names To Know
Brandon Williamson (LHP)
Williamson missed all of 2025 after undergoing TJS in September 2024 and I don’t expect Williamson to appear early in the year given the locked rotation in Cincy + time needed to get comfortable pitching in Triple-A before stepping back into the limelight. He’s a crafty lefty who has SWATCH potential, but hasn’t shown reliability in his slider or changeup to their respective batters. I love the cutter focus, though, and this low extension 92 mph hurling southpaw will have to squeeze the most out of those secondaries to snag the first rotation spot.
Rhett Lowder (RHP)
We had six outings of Lowder in 2024 with a laughably fortunate 1.17 ERA (lower than his 1.27 WHIP is something), and my curiosity was never satiated in 2025 after enduring forearm and oblique injuries to take him out of MLB contention and limiting him to just five games in the minors. Now healthy for 2026, he’s expected to begin in Triple-A and could be the first arm to get a shot when the Reds are in need. The package isn’t too exciting – a 93/94 mph four-seamer with a sinker, changeup, and 85 mph gyro slider – but the sinker shows promise with proper two-plane action (18″ horizontal and 4/5″ vert) that could make him a groundball darling. I’m not sure the slider and changeup are developed enough to make him a proper workhorse, but it’s possible they will in time. Sadly, the four-seamer’s shape it terrible and is used only to go upstairs and hope for the best against LHB. Not fun.
Carson Spiers (RHP)
He had UCL surgery last July and who knows when he’s ready to come back in 2026, if at all. He’s a kitchen sink right-hander at 91/92 mph, which has already summoned the cane appearing on stage at the Apollo. Welp, it’s time we move on.
Graham Ashcraft (RHP)
The Reds moved Ashcraft to the pen at the start of the 2025 season and as of now, it looks like that’s where he’ll stay for 2026. That’s cool with me – Ashcraft’s questionable command and oddly hittable stuff at 96/97 mph (1st percentile extension doesn’t help) has made me bearish on the fella for a while and if he were to return to the rotation, it better be with something fresh – even then, I’d be awfully skeptical it would work out.
Julian Aguiar (RHP)
He underwent TJS in October of 2024 and I wasn’t too hyped about Aguiar’s chances of being a legit starter before then. He sported a 94 mph sinker that heavily found the zone in concert with middling changeups and sliders that struggled to find strikes. The extension was poor, the movement was mid, and I think we can move on.
Chase Petty (RHP)
I really thought Petty could be a command arm at 95/96 mph with four-seamers and sinkers + an 89/90 mph gyro slider and 83/84 mph sweeper. Instead, he appeared and walked the farm in six MLB frames (20% walk rate…) and those issues haunted him across all of his 2025 in Triple-A. Hopefully he can refine the sinker inside to RHB and open the door for his hard slider to do the work, and I’ll believe when I see it.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Jose Franco (RHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Franco’s four-seamer has deadzone movement (maybe a touch extra horizontal) with poor extension and a slightly steep attack angle, paired with a “curveball” at 84 mph that is a gyro slider with a sprinkle of added sweep. His changeup is far too inconsistent to be a proper weapon to LHB, and I’d completely pass on Franco in his current form.
Kevin Abel (RHP, AA, Age 26) – Watch Video
He’s a changeup-focused RHP who made one random start in Triple-A in August and shortly returned back to Double-A after. That start featured great lateral pitch separation between four-seamers and changeups (gloveside and armside, respectively), with the latter returning 11/15 whiffs, which, yes, is bonkers. Sadly, a changeup-focused RHP is not my jam with prospects – he threw more changeups than sliders to RHB in this outing – and considering he returned 113 strikeouts in 120 Double-A innings with a near 4.50 ERA, the results are dousing more cold water on any hype surrounding Abel.
Mason Morris (RHP, A, Age 22) – Watch Video
Drafted in 2025, Morris throws a mid-to-upper 90s four-seamer at a steep attack angle with a legit low 90s cutter as his favorite offering + a stabilizing slider in the upper 80s he throws for strikes. I dig the profile plenty, it’s now a matter of climbing the minors and getting the results we expect, hopefully with a four-seamer that finds a way to miss bats in the zone and sheds the dreaded Empty Velocity tag. Considering Burns made his debut the year after the draft, Morris has a shot if he destroys the competition early. Remember the name, he’s the best SP in the Reds’ system.
