In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Luis Severino (RHP)
2025 Stats: 162.2 IP | 4.54 ERA | 1.3 WHIP | 17.6 K% | 7.1 BB%
The best part about Severino? His workload. Sevy is sure to be a key part of the Athletics‘ rotation once again, starting every five days with a 90+ pitch leash. But do you want him to? There isn’t a stellar element in his arsenal, starting with a pair of 96 mph heaters that get strikes but few whiffs (and a 50% ICR on the four-seamer, yikes). The attack for RHB is an 11% SwStr sweeper (yuck), while his cutter is arguably the best pitch of the crew as a solid neutralizer to LHB. Severino commands it well inside and induced tons of weak contact to LHB, churning quick outs. In fact, it’s so good I’d suggest it becomes his primary attack to LHB over his four-seamer. In addition, the sinker’s feel to land inside to RHB overshadows the away four-seamer, making me believe a sinker/cutter approach is best for Sevy, utilizing sweepers and four-seamers more as chase pitches and strikeout offerings than early jabs.
This is all ignoring his home park that doesn’t change in 2026 – the oh-so-terrifying Sacré Verde. If you want to make it easy and “don’t start him there”, why would you want a questionable arm who you’d only even consider starting for half his starts? This is AL-Only play for his potential volume, or a 15-teamer streamer on the road.
Quick Take: Severino lacks a whiff pitch in his arsenal and gets hit far too hard to consider in 12-teamers. With a long leash and regular starts, he has the opportunity were he to improve his sweeper or transition to a ground-ball arm via sinker and cutters, but the team context and horrific floor without strikeout promise makes him an easy avoid.
Jeffrey Springs (LHP)
2025 Stats: 171.0 IP | 4.11 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 19.4 K% | 7.6 BB%
Springs was a SWATCH before it was cool. Thing is, to be an effective one in the league, you can’t just have a great changeup. There needs to be a supporting cast to handle LHB, and a respected, well located fastball against RHB. Typically, you’ll see southpaws feature a sinker/slider for their counterparts, while reserving a cutter or four-seamer to pair with the changeup to RHB. Springs doesn’t have this depth. The slider exists against LHB, but it has a horrific 14% putaway rate, has an average ability to earn strikes, and features a poor 41% ICR. This slide piece doesn’t instill terror upon LHB as it should.
Meanwhile, there isn’t a sinker to be found. Springs’ reluctance to feature his best pitch against LHB has the changeup removed from the equation, putting the honus on his four-seamer to get the job done. And no, it is not sunshine and rainbows.
The weakness puts more pressure on success against RHB, which can come and go. The heater’s PLV ranks sub 20th percentile and gets clobbered, and the slider tries to be of assistance, but is often appreciated by batters when attempting to sneak over the plate. But that changeup. Yeah, it’s a fantastic pitch and it is sure to create a handful of blissful days at the park, which unfortunately will often be Sacré Verde once again. It adds up to a pitcher you don’t want to start at home and only desperately on the road. Nooooope.
Quick Take: Springs’ changeup is fantastic, but the lack of supporting cast merged with a terrible home park creates too much volatility to roster throughout a season. A major tweak is needed before gaining trust in fantasy leagues.
Jacob Lopez (LHP)
2025 Stats: 92.2 IP | 4.08 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 28.3 K% | 9.3 BB%
Lopez’s electric summer presence dissipated in a flash after a trip to the IL with a lat strain and I implore that you ignore his 2025 line of 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate. Why? Because his final start came with 9 ER and 12 baserunners in just two frames, masking the absurdity of his previous thirteen starts: 2.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 30% strikeout rate. Yes, there are four games of sub five frames in that stretch, but these thirteen games provided an ace from June 8th through August 19th. Two months of supreme dopeness.
And it’s overlooked because he’s a weird one. His four-seamer has the lowest zone rate to RHB at 37%, playing a game of chicken with his cutter on the outside edge, and changeup that drops underneath. J. Lo’s slider is the true winner, though, featuring an astonishing 97th percentile PLV, and it takes down both LHB and RHB with ease. He even introduced his 18″ horizontal sinker to LHB in his last three games of the stretch and I wouldn’t be shocked if he leaned heavily when he starts regularly again.
But when will that be? He was apparently being considered to return before the end of the season, and we haven’t seen a messenger pigeon since. A healthy Lopez in the spring should propel his ADP from the mid 500s into the 300s overnight (if not higher!), and when diving deep in drafts, health is the one variable you lean on. If he’s still hurt, you drop! If he’s healthy, you’re happy! If he’s bad…well that’s baseball, eh? In 12-teamers, I’d take a chance late to see if he still has the same spark. It’s so dang rare to find a 30% strikeout arm with legit ratios across thirteen straight starts. The skill is clearly in there.
Quick Take: J.Lo is a phenomenal late-round flier. His health is in question after a lat strain ended his 2025, though his thirteen starts prior to destruction came with an elite 30% strikeout rate and sparkling ratios. That skill is still there with his unusual and wide southpaw arsenal, as long as his body doesn’t hold him back.
J.T. Ginn (RHP)
2025 Stats: 90.1 IP | 5.08 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 25.3 K% | 7.9 BB%
I’ll always have a soft spot for Ginn. He doesn’t overpower and he doesn’t have the greatest breaker or changeup, but he has a legit sinker. The pitch returned just 1-2″ of vert, a product of 1st percentile spin rate on the pitch. When he’s able to locate it down and gear it up to 93/94 mph, he can be a fun pitcher of efficiency, especially when he has the slider to help earn whiffs to RHB, and cutter + changeup for LHB (the latter had a 23% SwStr rate in 2025!).
That command isn’t consistent, though. He had elbow inflammation early in the year and landed on the IL before returning in a bullpen role. Eventually, he returned to the bump in the first, and he left us wanting more. Ginn’s command failed to find a steady rhythm and here we are, entering 2026 without a clear picture of what we’ll get.
There’s a fun deep league sleeper here, rooted in his solid four-pitch mix and past ability to live on the edges. Be aware of Sacré Verde and its tendency to do everything to irritate trusting managers while taking a gander at Ginn when he finds himself with the pearl every five days. If you can choose your spots, Ginn could be a lovely stream or two.
Quick Take: There’s promise in his legit sinker paired with a whiffable slider and changeup + cutter for reliable strikes. Ginn’s command is a heavy question mark, though, forcing me to consider him only after he’s displayed a strong rhythm. Consider him as a 12-teamer streamer and a possible sleeper in 15-teamers.
On The Fringe
Luis Morales (RHP)
2025 Stats: 48.2 IP | 3.14 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | 21.6 K% | 9.0 BB%
You may see Morales get some hype after boasting a 3.14 ERA and 22% strikeout rate with a solid WHIP in nearly 50 IP last season, especially with a huge two-plane sweeper and 97+ mph heaters. Uhhhh, obviously. That’s dope. Right. Problem? The four-seamer isn’t actually good. It doesn’t get whiffs, Morales’ cross-body delivery creates doubt that he’ll ever figure out how to command the pitch properly, and gets crushed against LHB. The changeup has a touch of potential at nearly 90 mph, but has a similar command issue, and his sweeper is a control liability. It doesn’t find strikes above the 60% threshold, and Morales’ fortunate 2025 schedule masked a highly volatile skillset. I’d prefer a Toby in 15-teamers over chasing this HIPSTER – there’s too much to fix for him to take off.
Quick Take: His successful rookie year should not be taken at face value. His high velocity fastball gets hit hard without whiffs, while control is a major question mark without a deep arsenal. He’s lovely eye wash with 97/98 mph heaters and a two-plane sweeper that he struggles to wield properly for consistent results.
Luis Medina (RHP)
2024 Stats: 40.0 IP | 5.18 ERA | 1.58 WHIP | 17.8 K% | 11.1 BB%
Medina is doing all he can to get back onto the field after sitting on the sidelines recovering from TJS in August 2024. The expectation is for a regular spring training, opening the door for an immediate return to the rotation. That may excite some noticing a 96 mph fastball with a whiffable slider, though I’m hesitant to embrace the young arm. All his pitches recorded poor PLV marks in 2023 and 2024 due to poor shape and rough control, while the slider’s mid 80s velocity and middling movement makes it more susceptible to destruction than your typical standout breaker. I’ll pay attention in the spring to see if there’s something new, but in all likelihood, Medina is a wait-and-see during the year as a possible pickup if a significant change appears.
Quick Take: We hope to see Medina’s 96 mph fastball and 15-20% SwStr slider return post-TJS, though he needs to do more than return to his healthy self. It’s unlikely we’ll see an improved Medina right away, and without a locked rotation spot, he turns into a possible pick-up mid-season, nothing more.
Gunnar Hoglund (RHP)
2025 Stats: 32.1 IP | 6.40 ERA | 1.52 WHIP | 15.9 K% | 8 BB%
I dig Hoglund and will be keeping a close eye on him. He’s not an arm to bank on out of drafts (is he fully recovered from his hip injury and locked into the rotation? Will he be in rhythm?), though his arsenal is an intriguing package with a firm command foundation to build upon. His 93/94 mph four-seamer has good vert (albeit with a steep arm angle) with a variety of offerings moving off it. His “slider” is actually a cutter he is likely to throw more in 2025 and finds its way inside with ease, the sweeper has big movement and could refine to be a proper weapon to RHB, his slowball is a kick-change that found a little too much of the zone to LHB last season, and his sinker is exactly what you want it to be: A plan of attack to jam RHB consistently. Give him more innings on the bump to polish his array and Hoglund looks prime to become a solid Toby if not a Holly in time.
Quick Take: He’s not as electric as others, but wide arsenal with strong command and a great approach has me intrigued. Hoglund can become a strong volume arm over time if he gets routine starts, which may come as soon as April. Keep an eye on Gunnar through 2025 and beyond.
Jack Perkins (RHP)
2025 Stats: 38.2 IP | 4.19 ERA | 1.16 WHIP | 23 K% | 11.2 BB%
Perkins is another Athletics arm with potential, and not an arm to target early. A shoulder injury ended his season in August and I’m excited to see him in the spring as he’s expected to have a healthy return to the bump. Hopefully it comes with a larger emphasis on an elite 93/94 mph cutter that he commands exceptionally well to his glove-side against both LHB and RHB, which would allow him to use a very hittable (and wild!) four-seamer as a surprise pitch and less as a foundational pitch. His sweeper and kick-change are his primary putaway offerings, with the former featured far more than ideal against LHB, and the latter coming with the typical control issues we see with the trending slowball. Something will need to shift against LHB – either sweepers find better locations or the kick-change (or something else?) can take over as the compliment to the fastball/cutter combo. At the very least, leaning more into the cutter should make for a better 2026 ahead and I hope to tell you all about it mid-season to pick him up as a streamer and potential Toby.
Quick Take: Perkins’ 95/96 mph fastball needs to find the shelf for a far better cutter, while his sweeper and changeup have work to be done to keep batters on their toes. The cutter/sweeper alone has potential to create stability, but it remains to be seen, especially with his overused four-seamer last season.
Names To Know
Mason Barnett (RHP)
I can see Barnett working out more than the rest of the arms here, but that doesn’t mean it will. Barnett’s four-seamer is actually a cutter (2nd percentile horizontal movement, right on the y-axis divider), but he doesn’t wield it like one yet, refusing to jam LHB with the offering. He struggled to earn strikes to LHB as a result, while he flexed a few whiffable breakers to RHB that could make him intriguing if the cut-fastball can become a reliable #1 pitch. We may see him step into a starting role before June arrives and he has a better chance than others of becoming a boring producer.
Joey Estes (RHP)
Estes was sent to the minors shortly after the start of the year, returned in August and promptly underwent surgery on his back. Poor fella. He’s a soft tossing RHP with a generally wide arsenal and knack for finding the zone, which rarely spells worthwhile. The only hope is for Estes to have a sudden surge of velocity, though he already dropped from 92/93 mph in ’24 to 91 mph in ’25, and he needs to be 94/95 mph to at least create a chance to squeak by as a ‘Toby”. That’s not what you want.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Braden Nett (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
Control is an issue for Nett, though he has a fun repertoire if he can find stability. He sits 95 mph with a cutter and a great big breaker, with a changeup in the mix as well. A tweak needs to be made to continue through to Triple-A as a starter given his horrid walk rate, and once he gets a chance, we can only hope he’s developed enough to appear this season.
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (RHP, AA, Age 25) – Watch Video
He sits in the low 90s with a splitter, a low 80s slider, and standard curveball + changeup. It’s not the package I look for in prospects (not enough electricity), though he’s posted a strikeout per inning in 145+ frames last season. This isn’t the guy to stash and chase, even with a wider arsenal than his peers.
Gage Jump (LHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
Oh dang, I get the hype. Just watch that video – Jump was blowing four-seamers past LHB upstairs at 97 in the sixth inning. That’s the stamina of a proper LHP workhorse and a legit sign of stud in the making. The secondaries aren’t quite as exciting with a breaker involved, though the flat attack four-seamer is a thing of beauty and at his young age, I’m inclined to believe the breaker and changeup will continue to improve. He’s 100% worth the add when he arrives.
Henry Baez (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He’s a fastball focused arm at 93/94 mph that can push upper-90s at times, and pairs it with a curveball that has gotten whiffs in the dirt, but is a shadow of what a potential slider would be. Throw in a split-change as his #3 and it’s an atypical arsenal that I’d generally avoid until he proves me wrong.
Jamie Arnold (LHP, ROK, Age 21) – Watch Video
He just got drafted by the Athletics in 2025 and sits mid-90s with a flat release from the left side with a bit sweeper and a changeup that could turn him into a hard throwing SWATCH. Sadly, he’s far too young to consider for the 2026 season, but if he gets a late season callup by some miracle, he’s absolutely worth the spec add.
Kade Morris (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He’s a right-handed slinger and gets legit drop on his sinker at just one iVB, which makes him a potential groundballer at low-to-mid 90s if he can locate the pitch well. He can against RHB, paired with a frisbee slider/sweeper/curve + elevated four-seamers that utilize his flat attack angle, but the attack to LHB needs work. The outside sinker is questionable without a dominant changeup (he’s working on it) and the four-seamer + variety of breakers is lacking. He could surprise us when he gets the call this year with a few gems, but I’ll be looking for improvements to his LHB approach before signing on.
Steven Echavarria (RHP, A+, Age 20) – Watch Video
I’d normally say Echavarria has no chance of getting the call this year, but the Athletics have mentioned Echavarria as a potential option this season and here we are. At a young 20-years-old, he’s sitting 95/96 mph (pushing 99 mph!) with a promising slider at 89 mph and a changeup with good fade, and I’m excited to see more of him this season with his fastball base. He’s certainly an arm who can rise the ranks quickly and turn heads, though he’s a lottery ticket for now.
