In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Kyle Bradish (RHP)
2025 Stats: 32.0 IP | 2.53 ERA | 1.03 WHIP | 37.3 K% | 7.9 BB%
Bradish returned from TJS in late August 2025 and picked up where he left off. The slider and curveball still feature their elite movement and miss bats, and the fastballs are still the major inhibitors preventing a true Top 5 SP season. I dig the four-seamer approach to feature it outside the zone and continue to keep its Ball-In-Play rate lower than league average (batters lace the pitch far more than other heaters), while his feel for inside sinkers to RHB is a huge plus. If only he could command the four-seamer on the inside edge to LHB, leaning into its heavy cut-action…
I usually dislike favoring pitchers with questionable fastballs, but Bradish is the modern representation of the Stuff McNasty from Cleveland’s glory days: Questionable heaters with two stellar secondaries that miss a whole lot of bats. The slider is one of the best in baseball with major sweep and drop at 87 mph, while his curve’s -13″ vert at 84+ mph is a rare sight. The strikeouts are sure to flow with both offerings heavily a part of the mix.
The common pushback toward a Bradish draft pick is his expected workload. He’s only thrown 71 innings in the last two seasons! Yes, that’s what a mid-season TJS looks like. We’ve seen multiple pitchers have similar returns and have few (if no) restrictions the following year: Skubal, deGrom, Bieber, etc. My rule is simple: If a pitcher has had a large workload in the past (Bradish threw 168.2 IP in 2023), teams will overlook an injured season and expect them to match their former workload when healthy in spring. In fact, I’d argue Bradish’s rehab is ideal for a full season – instead of being pushed heavily after surgery, Bradish had an abbreviated 2025, acting as another rehab, like Xzibit has appeared to pimp his season. We put a rehab IN YOUR REHAB. It’s what you want for Bradish to feel 100% to go in April.
The Orioles should be a solid team to play for, in a good park with an offense that is destined to score more runs than last year. I just can’t see Baltimore slowing down Bradish as the season progresses, with the only concern for his workload coming in the form of a few 75 pitch games instead of a 90+ outing. And that’s a hypothetical floor. Feel confident drafting him to be a workhorse for your teams this year.
Quick Take: Bradish returned from TJS and looked just like his former self with two elite breaking balls and the ability to travel to the sixth with ease. His workload concerns are overblown – similar situations have returned full seasons the following year – and his situation in Baltimore sets him up for stellar production.
Shane Baz (RHP)
2025 Stats: 166.1 IP | 4.87 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 24.8 K% | 9.0 BB%
Look, 2025 wasn’t great. Baz had a strong end to the 2024 season, showcasing a foundational four-seamer with an elite curveball, and he took a step back last season with all the HRs. I’m willing to put much of the blame on his home park transitioning from Tropicana (+1-2″ of vert!) to George Steinbrenner Field, which Ryan Pepiot described along the lines of “I have no idea what my pitches are going to do.” The unfamiliar park led to his slider feel disappearing completely, becoming a major liability even when featuring it just a few times a game. It was rough. And not what I expect for 2026.
While I wish he could call Tropicana his home, Baltimore is a fine compromise. It’s a squad that is assuredly going to give him more run support, while we can expect 90+ pitches with more regularity than the helicopter parenting of the Rays. In addition, I’m a fan of Baz turning his slider into a cutter last season, and I expect the Orioles to lean into the pitch against LHB (oh how the times have changed since they refused to let Dylan Bundy throw his cutter…). With his four-seamer sitting 98 mph in his final outing of 2025 (albeit, at just 49 pitches), I’m confident he’ll have a strong three-pitch mix entering the year.
Still, there is a bit of wishcasting after enduring such a ghastly season, and while half his games came in a horrific Triple-A park, it’s within reason that Baz himself still has warts that need work to cure. The ceiling here is a 3.50 ERA arm with a low WHIP and 25% strikeout rate (especially if he can find his slider again!), while the floor comes with a hoard of longballs as he can’t find consistency start-to-start. I’ll take my chances he’s closer to the former.
Quick Take: Baz is happy to leave 2025 in the past and start fresh in Baltimore with a team ready to lean on him regularly, though it’s unclear how far removed he will be from his HR-laden season. Hopefully the new cutter can bond with his four-seamer to take down LHB, while the curveball can be its elite self and the putaway offering it was in 2024.
Zach Eflin (RHP)
2025 Stats: 71.1 IP | 5.93 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 16.2 K% | 4.2 BB%
I think Eflin is a great value play for 2026. He’s endured back injuries across his career and finally did something about it last year, getting surgery in November and giving us one of those wonderful BEST SHAPE OF HIS LIFE quotes after. A healthy Eflin has given us seasons like his phenomenal 2023, and 2026 could bring another where he puts his full arsenal on display. Four-seamers saved for punchouts, sinkers hitting corners, cutters and curves moving with grace, sweepers to take down RHB, and changeups earning outs against LHB. It’s also a one-year deal, which encourages the Orioles to push him as much as they want. 170+ innings is not out of the question (hopefully the back problems are resolved!), while he pitches in a great situation.
Upside comes in multiple forms. Typically, it’s referenced when discussing young arms with 25%+ strikeout potential, but one of my biggest lessons of 2025 was embracing potential Holly arms. Finding the pitchers drafted as Toby types who consistently toss 90+ pitches of quality. Eflin is a prime example and I’m grabbing him everywhere in the later rounds.
Quick Take: Eflin is the perfect late round grab. He’s in a great situation in Baltimore on a one-year deal that will allow him to pitch deep into games as long as he’s healthy. If he’s injured, you let him go quickly at little cost to you, with upside of becoming a surprise anchor for your rotation.
Trevor Rogers (LHP)
2025 Stats: 109.2 IP | 1.81 ERA | 0.90 WHIP | 24.3 K% | 6.9 BB%
Rogers is the perfect example of a pitcher that doesn’t make enough sense for me to draft him. Yes, it means I could be missing out on another great season, it also means that I’m taking myself out of the way of a potential bust pick. After all, there are so many signs that 2025 shouldn’t have gone the way it did, and let’s start with the shallow marks: A stupid 5.7 H/9 that only exists due to a small sample of 18 starts (he should be around 7-8 H/9!), A miniscule 9% HR/FB rate (our flyballs DON’T include pop-ups!), a .228 BABIP (kinda redudnant with the H/9), and an 84% LOB rate (which you’d expect from a 1.81 ERA).
Thing is, his repertoire wasn’t vastly different from what we’ve seen in the past. It’s the same changeup, a slider that was good but not elite, a sinker to LHB that was serviceable, and a four-seamer with the same velocity and shape. It doesn’t make sense.
I apologize, I didn’t tell you the whole story. That four-seamer is the culprit of this enigma and I’ll leave it up to you if you think it’s believable. Rogers shifted away from the low fastball and favored the top of the zone far more than in previous seasons, resulting in more flyballs (lower BABIP), but more importantly, tunnelling more effectively with his changeup to RHB. This shift resulted in, wait for it, 100th percentile Hitter Performance (-23.4 worse than expected, average is 2.0), and 99th percentile Hit Luck of -24. That’s twenty four fewer hits than expected based on the pitch’s attributes and locations, context dependent. Extremes that are not wise to latch onto, especially when rendered in fewer starts relative to the rest of the field.
At the baseline, we can all accept that Rogers should have worse results on his four-seamer if he had a larger sample in 2025. But how much worse? Well, let’s also take into account that Rogers’ massive boon in hiLoc% and ability to separate his four-seamer and changeup north/south regularly is not a guarantee. He was a man in rhythm for three months with Koufax on his side. Not only should the legendary southpaw look elsewhere this year, but Rogers is unlikely to have the same peak ability, too.
I still see Rogers as a helpful arm. He has all the opportunity you’d want with 2025 on his resume of what he can be like, especially with the higher strike rates than any season prior. I also trust the 2026 Orioles coaching to have more awareness of tweaks than that of the 2021 Marlins, which could mean a cutter or improved sweeper takes hold in time. It’s not all doom and gloom here.
This is all to say that I’m not going to reach for Rogers in drafts and I expect him to go to a manager more trusting in his sparkling 2025 campaign. However, if I’m able to draft him as my #5/6 SP by some miracle, I’m all for it.
Quick Take: Rogers’ fastball vastly overperformed in 2025, though his ability to locate the pitch above his changeup consistently is a sign of production even with an extra hit or two across a start. Don’t draft him over safer options, but consider him when you’ve already locked in four starters you trust.
Dean Kremer (RHP)
2025 Stats: 171.2 IP | 4.19 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 20.1 K% | 6.4 BB%
It’s possible Kremer has overtaken José Berríos as The Great Undulator after three consecutive seasons between a 4.10 and 4.20 ERA. After all, he earned the nickname Dean Werewolf last season due to his displays of brilliance twirling in a step with dismay. The arsenal paints the picture clearly: His four-seamer can perform well when sitting upstairs and merging with a cutter down-and-away, while the splitter’s volatile nature creates evenings of either demolishing or serving LHB. It may be your best interest to attempt a Vargas Rule when you believe he’s locked into his command for a moment during the year – he’s sure to grant a fair number of Wins and strikeouts due to his volume – though I’d prefer to find an arm I don’t need to pop an Advil each time I slot him into my lineup.
Quick Take: Kremer has an array of weapons that can appear on a given night, but his inconsistency creates too low of a floor to endure the productive peaks. Blame the splitter, blame the hittable four-seamer, but make sure not to put yourself in a position to blame your discipline. You don’t need to risk Kremer’s crater to snag a fantasy championship.
On The Fringe
Cade Povich (LHP)
2025 Stats: 112.1 IP | 5.21 ERA | 1.50 WHIP | 24.2 K% | 8.8 BB%
If Povich gets a long look inside the rotation this year, consider me interested. We have seen moments where Povich has displayed the command of a SWATCH with whiffability on both his four-seamer upstairs and his curveball, and his wide arsenal speaks to a routine delver through the sixth frame. A return to the cutter at the end of 2025 may help him silence RHB and LHB as well, and shelving the current sweeper to LHB in favor of the curve or new cutter could help him take another step forward. However, the opportunity isn’t there currently and these thoughts are painting an ideal picture of Povich over the course of development, not from the moment he gets a proper look. Be patient and get ready to pounce if the changes and volume are there.
Quick Take: Povich has the blueprint of a Toby for a good squad, but he needs a little more time once he securely owns a spot in the rotation. Monitor the fastball and changeup command, in addition to pitch mix tweaks that could unlock another level.
Tyler Wells (RHP)
2025 Stats: 21.2 IP | 2.91 ERA | 0.88 WHIP | 22.0 K% | 2.4 BB%
Wells is the perfect arm to stream against poor offenses. His stuff is highly questionable, but he locates beautifully. RHB get four-seamers at 92/93 mph with solid vert (albeit, with a steep attack angle) located incessantly at the top of the zone and higher, mixed with a slider that befuddled batters for a 29% ICR, 15% SwStr, and 72% strikes. LHB were served cutters and changeups over the slide piece, both performing well and spotted effectively – changeups down/away, cutters going “Cannibal McSanchez” with the four-seamer. Great offenses will be able to deal with the locations, while worse teams will struggle with Wells’ tenacity to find the edges. Between Wells and Povich, Wells may have the inside track if Baltimore is searching for a fifth starter out of camp. However, we may see Wells in long relief to begin the year and Povich in the minors, possibly preventing Wells from seizing the role given a requirement to stretch out first. Treat him as a possible pick-up when he’s stretched out and starting with a decent schedule ahead.
Quick Take: Wells is the perfect example of a Toby you can grab off the wire mid-season if every lines up just right. His lack of pizazz is compensated by elite precision and effective movement, allowing him to pump the zone and travel deeper into games than many other available options. Be patient and wait for the right time.
Names To Know
Albert Suárez (RHP)
Dietrich Enns (LHP)
Brandon Young (RHP)
Remember the time Young held a perfect game with four outs to go in Houston? Welp, he followed it up with a disaster of 7 ER in 5.1 IP in a repeat matchup and that was the last we saw of the fella after going on the IL with a hamstring strain. His arsenal didn’t speak to replication of his magical evening, though there is some fun in a 94 mph heater with 17″ of vert and a splitter that earned a 70% strike rate to LHB last season. Sadly, the curve and slider provide little hype, and there just isn’t enough oomph for me to circle him. He has massive blowup potential without the necessary upside to make you risk it. And no, he’s not so young, he’ll turn 28 years old in August, reducing hope for another step of velocity or pitch growth to hook us.
Chayce McDermott (RHP)
We’ve seen Chayce in two different seasons now – a start in 2024 before a lat strain took him down + four relief appearances this past year that were…rough. I really dig his mechanics and 17-18″ of vert with a slightly flat-attack angle on the 93/94 mph four-seamer, with a wide array of sweepers, sliders, cutters, curves, and even a splitter. Sounds great, right? Well, he can’t locate them. It was a huge struggle all year in the minors to consistently land the massive 76 mph curveball down, or the slider down-and-away, or find a zone rate above 50% on anything. There’s something innately wrong with McDermott’s feel and until he displays touch, he can’t be trusted, nor will the Orioles give him another opportunity.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Levi Wells (RHP, AAA, Age 24) – Watch Video
The four-seamer is closer than it seems to becoming a strong foundational offering. It’s currently sitting 95/96 mph with two plane movement of 16-17″ of vert and ~13″ of horizontal, with a cutter and curve as his two favorite secondaries + a sinker to jam RHB and a slider trying to act as a confident sweeper. The biggest issue is command: He isn’t locating his toolset with ease. When he spots the fastball and breakers, the world is wonderful. Too often, the cutter flies over the plate to RHB, or the breakers miss too far and it either leads to a blast or a count set up to crush the heater. There’s polish to add and I’m not sure we’ll see it this year.
Nestor German (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video
I loved watching German in the linked video. I hated the data from his two games of Triple-A. German throws a 93 mph four-seamer from a heavy over-the-top arm angle that makes his stellar 19″ of vert surprise batters less often than his lower arm-angled peers. The rest of his approach is your standard change, slider, curve that you see with extremely elevated arm angles, and while it should help return more strikes, German is your typical prospect trying to figure out how to consistently attack the edges with his offerings. With more data in Triple-A this season, I’m excited to see if he can add another layer of polish, while proving his velocity was a product of stamina in September, not his true talent.
Luis De León (LHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
He’s a slinging southpaw with low extension and control problems, but when he’s cooking, he’s getting grounders with the sinker and whiffs with the breaker + changeup. He’s a SWATCH without the control, returning 27 walks in 55 frames across A, A+ and AA last year. If the control improves, De Leon is absolutely of intrigue – we like a good SWATCH with whiffability! – but who knows when that will arrive, if ever.
Trey Gibson (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He’s a really weird one and while I’m curious, he has one major flaw that is too much to get over: His four-seamer is an atrocity. Gibson’s seven feet of extension is wonderful, but 93/94 mph of deadzone movement with poor locations and a slightly steep attack angle is the meatiest of meatballs. His sinker’s movement is equally poor, though at least he locates the pitch on the inside edge to RHB. Gibson’s breakers add another wrinkle: He throws two different sliders and I have no idea which should be labeled a cutter, if either. Currently, the “cutter” looks like a gyro but with extra drop to -2/4″ of vert around 88 mph, while the “slider” has elevated vert and more sweep at 89/90 mph. They are two distinctly different pitches. And there are two more breakers – A huge curveball he struggles to consistently land low (more of a surprise pitch) and a sweeper PLV absolutely adores that he’s learned to locate with no effort to RHB down-and-away. Are those breakers enough to mask the horrific heaters? I don’t think so. However, his fascinating array of pitches makes me wonder what he could be if he ever figures out what to do with his four-seamer and sinker.
