In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Sandy Alcantara (RHP)
2025 Stats: 174.2 IP | 5.36 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 19.1 K% | 7.7 BB%
You know me, I’ve been a Sandy guy since 2020. The 2022 Cy Young remains the clearest picture of what this arm does at its peak, and we simply haven’t seen the full version since Tommy John.
The first four months of 2025 were discouraging. His four-seamer lacked precision up in the zone and the changeup feel was inconsistent. But the final two months offered a genuinely encouraging shift: the changeup became a larger part of the arsenal, which freed up the heater, and his SwStr rate climbed from sub-10% back to 13-14%. He still needs to locate the sinker further inside to RHB, and the breakers haven’t returned to pre-injury form. But the late-season trend is real.
There’s also a defensive upgrade worth noting. Xavier Edwards shifted from short to second, and Otto Lopez provides a significant improvement at shortstop. For a pitcher who generates as many grounders as Sandy does, that matters. I’ve moved him up to around SP35 this offseason. It feels strange to have been cautious about “my guy.” It does, but those final two months gave me enough.
Quick Take: Sandy’s final two months showed legitimate four-seamer and changeup life, with a defensive upgrade supporting his ground-ball profile. He sits around SP35 with a realistic path back toward the top 25 if the gains hold.
Eury Pérez (RHP)
2025 Stats: 95.1 IP | 4.25 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 27.3 K% | 8.3 BB%
Isolate the four-seamer on its own merits and it’s one of the better fastballs in baseball: elite velocity, strong vert, flat attack angle. The issue? He consistently leaves it over the middle of the plate rather than elevating at the top of the zone. The industry, collectively, is overrating the command of that pitch right now.
Against RHB, he can get by with four-seamers, sliders, and curveballs, plus a natural sinker with 17+ inches of horizontal movement that should see more usage. The real concern is LHB. At-bats grind on as batters foul off fastball after fastball, and there’s no reliable putaway. The changeup was supposed to be the answer, but last year it posted a sub-30% strike rate. The pitch lived in the dirt. When it did find the zone, the surprise generated decent whiffs, but that’s not a sustainable approach.
Here’s why I’m still buying: Perez fits the half-season-back-from-Tommy John pattern perfectly. Skubal followed it. Ragans followed it. Corbin Burnes in 2020. It’s one of the most reliable breakout indicators we track. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt, but the changeup development and fastball command are necessary for Perez to reach the ceiling being priced in.
Quick Take: The half-season-back-from-TJS pattern tilts the arrow upward, but meaningful changeup development and improved fastball location are necessary for Perez to hit his ceiling. The industry is paying for the projection, not the current product.
Chris Paddack (RHP)
2025 Stats: 158.0 IP | 5.35 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 16.7 K% | 5.5 BB%
After all this time, Paddack is back with the Marlins after they selected him in the 8th round of the 2015 draft and he’s exactly the kind of arm I expected the Marlins to add. Paddack is equipped to be an innings eater, using his seven feet of extension and 17″ of vert at relatively high arm angle to chuck high 93/94 mph heaters and hope for the best. Oh come on, Nick. He has more than that! You’re right, my apologies. He backs it up with a Vulcan changeup that is – get this – inconsistent, while we all hope this is finally the year he can get a decent feel for spin. Watching Paddack incessantly fail to get depth or sweep on his cutter/slider for the past two years has been a test of our endurance and I wish I could provide optimism now.
The best part of 2025? He added a sinker that he throws inside to RHB very well. It’s not the greatest thing ever, but its 61% O-Swing is laughably incredible and makes sense given his heavy four-seamer usage, even with its mediocre movement. Keep doing that, it’ll help.
There will be games where Paddack comes through in his low-pressure environment and you’ll be able to find some value if you’re able to confidently spot it. I’m also willing to wager he’ll have a start that his faithful with circle, only to implode, commencing a shrill wail across fantasy leagues. I think you’re better off just stepping aside.
Quick Take: It’s always nice to see a journeyman get another shot to turn it around and for Paddack, all he really needs is a reliable slider that actually has depth and sweep to it. Don’t bank on it appearing this year, but at least he’ll get the chance to have success across six frames when his command is on point.
On The Fringe
Max Meyer (RHP)
2025 Stats: 64.2 IP | 4.73 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 23.9 K% | 7.0 BB%
Meyer entered 2025 as a compelling breakout candidate after the fastball appeared to take a step forward above 95 mph. The velocity was real, but it came at a physical cost: hip pain driven by the lower-half effort to generate that extra juice. Whether we see it again in 2026 is a genuine unknown.
Where Meyer earns his value is the slider to RHB. It sits 89-90 mph but moves like an 86 mph pitch, proper two-plane movement with depth and horizontal break. Sliders at that velocity typically trend toward gyro spin, which flattens the movement. Meyer’s defies that entirely. It’s a special pitch.
He showed real production for a stretch (14 strikeouts against the Reds stands out, though Cincinnati was notably poor on the road) before the results collapsed: five runs, four, four, five in consecutive starts. Hip? Pitch mix? Either way, same result.
If the velocity spike was only possible through physical strain, the 2026 version may be diminished. Monitor spring training closely and avoid in 12-teamers until we have clarity.
Quick Take: Meyer’s slider is genuinely elite, an 89-90 mph pitch with 86 mph movement in two planes. Everything depends on the hip. Temper expectations in standard leagues until spring training tells us more.
Braxton Garrett (LHP)
2025 Stats: 37.0 IP | 5.35 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 21.1 K% | 2.5 BB%
Garrett didn’t pitch in 2025, returning from either Tommy John or an internal brace procedure. But when healthy and commanding his arsenal, there’s a genuinely useful pitcher here.
The slider is the primary weapon, a high-depth offering that works against both LHB and RHB. The cutter complements it beautifully, running up-and-in on RHB at roughly 70% strikes when he’s right. The changeup rounds things out, spotted down-and-away in the moments when everything clicks. That’s peak Garrett: slider, cutter, changeup all in harmony.
The notable absence? A quality fastball. It’s simply not there. When we saw him briefly in 2024, he threw it 44% of the time. During more effective stretches, closer to 35%. I believe it should sit around 30%. Against RHB, the approach may need to resemble what Pablo Lopez does: avoid the fastball in the zone, use it as a show-me pitch, lean on the cutter to backdoor. If healthy out of camp, he’ll be in the rotation with streaming upside.
Quick Take: Garrett’s slider, cutter, and changeup are quality weapons, the fastball is not. His path runs through sub-30% heater usage and a slow approach to RHB. Streaming upside if healthy.
Janson Junk (RHP)
2025 Stats: 110.0 IP | 4.17 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 17.2 K% | 2.9 BB%
Junk profiles as a strike-thrower with a four-seamer, slider, sweeper, and curveball, and he’s part of a four-pitcher group the Marlins have assembled with a common thread: high-vert four-seamers paired with high arm angles. The fundamental concern is the relationship between arm angle and perceived movement. The higher the release point, the more hitters are calibrated to expect vertical ride, so when you see 17-18 inches of induced vert from over-the-top, the raw numbers overstate how much the pitch is actually playing up.
He’ll get rotation opportunities. I don’t see fantasy value in any format.
Quick Take: A strike-throwing righty with a high-vert fastball that doesn’t play up due to his high arm angle. Avoid in all formats.
Bradley Blalock (RHP)
2025 Stats: 58.2 IP | 9.36 ERA | 1.84 WHIP | 9.8 K% | 8.4 BB%
Blalock arrives from Colorado and fits squarely into Miami’s high-arm-angle collection. The interesting wrinkle is the Coors adjustment. When you see 17-18 inches of vert on his four-seamer, half his games were played at altitude, which strips roughly three inches of vertical break. Adjust for that and his true vert sits closer to 18.5-19 inches, a legitimately impressive number. But the same arm-angle concern applies: from his release point, hitters expect that ride, which diminishes the perceived advantage. The secondaries are unremarkable.
Like the rest of this group, not a fantasy target.
Quick Take: The Coors-adjusted vert is genuinely impressive at roughly 19 inches, but the high arm angle neutralizes the deception and the secondaries don’t support a fantasy profile.
Names To Know
Adam Mazur (RHP)
Mazur came to Miami via trade from San Diego and he fits the “one legit slider, not much else” profile. The four-seamer carries vert on paper, but from his high arm angle it doesn’t translate into deception. He’s part of the same organizational wave of high-arm-angle arms the Marlins have accumulated. One quality secondary is a start, it’s not enough to build a starter’s profile around. No fantasy value.
Ryan Gusto (RHP)
Gusto fits the same mold as the rest of this group, acquired from the Astros, high-vert four-seamer, high arm angle. There were stretches in Houston where the profile worked, but that was within the Astros’ pitching infrastructure, and that context doesn’t travel to Miami. None of these four carry real fantasy value, and candidly, I’d prefer they don’t earn rotation spots, because that would mean Miami’s more promising prospects are getting the opportunity instead.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Robby Snelling (LHP, 22, AAA) – Watch Video
You should pay attention to Snelling. He just had a wonderful season upping his velocity with a glorious 166/39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 136 minor league innings, generally split between Double-A and Triple-A. His four-seamer sits 94/95 mph with solid movement and a generally flat attack, and Snelling confidently pounds the zone with the pitch, returning an unreal 5.56 PLV on the pitch. You simply don’t see that from minor league arms. His array of changeups, big drop 83/84 mph slider, and a hard 82/83 mph two-plane curve complete the package for a legit SWATCH, making the last remaining question: “When?!” After trading Cabrera and Weathers, the Marlins’ rotation has three spots up for grabs, and it’s possible Snelling claims the fifth straight out of camp. After all, the other candidates are TJS-recovering Garrett, hip-surgery-recovering Meyer, the questionable heaters of Gusto and Janson, the highly suspect Mazur, and newly acquired Blalock, making it clear that Snelling is the best pitcher of the lot. Let’s see how the spring goes and if the Marlins are left without a choice. If three arms are pitching just fine in camp, Snelling will be delayed, and when he gets the call, you better jump for him.
Thomas White (LHP, 21, AAA) – Watch Video
He fanned roughly 150 batters in 90 minor league innings last year, propelling him to #1 prospect status inside the Marlins’ system. However, like you’ll see with all of these Miami prospects, White’s control was rough, with 51 walks in that time. He even struck out 10 and walked six in his Triple-A debut, serving 95 mph four-seamers with solid two-plane movement up-and-away to RHB, some deadly kick-changeups, a gyro slider, and big sweeper with proper depth like a curve at 83 mph. He’s incredibly hard to hit with his effectively-wild approach, which makes us all hope he can turn the corner, tighten the range of pitch location, and turn into a workhorse for the Marlins. A large impact in 2026 seems too chaotic for me, even after we see a start of strikeout dominance in an early outing. He has the makings of a HIPSTER until those walks get ironed out.
Dax Fulton (LHP, 24, AAA) – Watch Video
He’s a strange one. The southpaw has a big curve that acts as a sweeper with a little more depth at 81 mph, while he features a cut-fastball that sits at just 93/94 mph that you rarely see. No, he doesn’t jam it into RHB often, but if he’s able to spot it + continue polishing his changeup, Fulton looks like a solid SWATCH in the making. After all, 93/94 mph cut inside with a change should deal with RHB, even without the curveball helping as much as it does. And of course, LHB have to deal with that big breaker and a developing sinker, which should be just fine. There’s a solid pitcher in here and I would pay attention when he gets his call as a sleeper NL-Only arm, if not 15-teamer and 12-teamer worthy. That promotion is contingent on limiting his walks, of course.
Noble Meyer (RHP, 21, A+) – Watch Video
He’s trying to be an Aaron Nola type with a lower arm angle and riding fastballs without the vert or velocity we like to see (around low-to-mid 90s). There’s a slider that gets whiffs and a changeup that can work to LHB, though 38 walks in 65 frames in A+ ball suggests there’s still work to be done to become a proper command arm. He’s a name we’ve seen a bunch, and unless he smokes the field in Double-A this year, there’s little chance he makes it to the bigs in 2026. A spec add if he does, and I haven’t seen the dominance normally accompanied by prospects I’ve heard of.
Karson Milbrandt (RHP, 21, AA) – Watch Video
He’s still young and developing, with just ten frames in Double-A last season, and he showcased the characteristics of a HIPSTER in Single-A with 101 strikeouts in 77 innings… and 53 walks. The word is he’s 95/96 mph four-seamer with some upper 90s in the tank in rare moments, with plus two-plane movement from the right-side and an intent to go upstairs. That’s dope! It is, when he locates. He has a trio of secondaries he that can be legit when on point, but are tough to wrangle with roughly 10+ mph lower velocity on each. I’d wait to see a season where Milbrandt focuses on strikes over stuff before jumping in.
