Updated 2/10/26 after Spencer Schwellenbach’s injury + Martín Pérez added.
In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
This year, I’m making these articles free to everyone, with some added benefits for PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Chris Sale (LHP)
2025 Stats: 125.2 IP | 2.58 ERA | 1.07 WHIP | 32.4 K% | 6.3 BB%
The man backed up his miraculous 2024 with another AGA season…until he fractured a rib diving for a ball and missed over two months. That’s really all there is to it: He’s going to help your team when he pitches, but the realistic volume ceiling is far lower than the majority of his AGA peers. In shallow 10-teamers and lower, it’s worthwhile given the slew of great options on the wire during the time he misses. However, for 12-teamers and beyond, I’d much rather draft a pitcher I can believe is there from tape-to-tape. And it’s no lock he’ll still be elite. True, but it’s pretty safe after his last two seasons, and that’s acknowledging his refusal to throw changeups. The slider and four-seamer combo is simply that good, and his sinker is saved for 15% usage against LHB, which had a 5.94 PLV last year. Yeah. That good.
If you want to take a chance and make it happen, pop the cork and fingers snapping, then spin the wheel. Round and round it will go, and here’s to it landing on 150+ innings. Let’s be real, you know that’s not going to happen.
Quick Take: He’s a stud pitcher…when on the field. His 2024 was an anomaly and it’s unwise to expect 150+ IP again. I’d rather take a more secure arm for quality volume.
Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP)
2025 Stats: 110.2 IP | 3.09 ERA | 0.97 WHIP | 24.9 K% | 4.1 BB%
Oh jeez. Is he healthy? Update: No, he is not. Schwellenbach will be on the 60-day IL to start the year with elbow inflammation, suggesting June at the earliest. Yikes. If he’s throwing regularly in spring training, do we still trust it? Mr. Crescendo made me a fan in 2024 with his wide arsenal with multiple whiff pitches, flat attack angle, great extension, and 96 mph heater. Then he decided to throw harder in 2025 and fractured his elbow in the process. That doesn’t sound great, at all, and the concept of Schwelly returning from said injury only to throw 97 mph again seems off, doesn’t it?
At the moment of writing this, we’re in the dark, save for a quote that “if everything goes as planned, I’ll be ready for spring training”. Take that as you will. As I always say, If there’s haze, he fades. You never say that. WELL MAYBE NOW I WILL. If he were going outside the top 125 picks, I’d be all for taking a chance and hoping he’s back to making regular starts without a hitch. His results may be a touch worse with lower velocity, which leads to his 100th percentile zone-rate fastball getting laced more than we’d like, but it may mean the cutter makes a grand return to soften the blow.
Like his teammate Sale, Schwellenbach is sure to help when he pitches for your squads. We simply don’t know when and I hate not having clarity.
Quick Take: In a normal year, Schwellenbach would be touted as a studly workhorse with a great heater, deep repertoire, and multiple strikeout offerings. Unfortunately, a fractured elbow due to his increased velocity makes it difficult to discern his quality in 2026. There’s an ace in here, but how much will we get?
Spencer Strider (RHP)
2025 Stats: 125.1 IP | 4.45 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 24.3 K% | 9.5 BB%
In late 2025, I asked a question that had a shocking answer. Can you remember a pitcher who had an elite four-seamer, underwent elbow surgery, returned with a worse four-seamer, and regained his elite four-seamer the next year? I know it’s a lot of variables, but the answer is simple. There isn’t one. Strider was a two-pitch arm, rooted in a stupid good four-seamer. That heater’s 97/98 mph velocity with elite extension and massive vert was so hard to hit, compounded by a well-commanded slider low that returned startling SwStr rates. Boy did I miss that fastball last year. The pitch not only dropped 1-2 ticks, it also lost two inches of vert and lost its flat attack angle, leading to a SwStr rate drop of seven points since we last saw it (2023, ignoring two injured games of 2024), from 15% to 8%. That’s rough.
The slider had its moments this past year despite the velocity beast prowling its turf as well, but batters flailed at the pitch far less without feeling the impending doom of his four-seamer, leading to a sub 60% strike rate. Not good.
It’s absolutely possible Strider is better in the next season – pitching coach Jeremy Hefner has discussed shifting his arm angle and preventing Strider from cross firing during his delivery – but this isn’t a simple tweak away. This would be turning an average fastball into an elite fastball over an off-season. I can’t buy into that. Give me something else more believable in my drafts.
Quick Take: Strider returned from TJS without his signature fastball and it crumbled his engine. It’s unrealistic to expect him to recover two ticks of velocity, two inches of vert, and improve its attack-angle in one off-season, marking Strider as a pitcher to ignore drafting this spring, unless he miraculously falls to the later rounds.
Hurston Waldrep (RHP)
2025 Stats: 56.1 IP | 2.88 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 24.0 K% | 9.6 BB%
I don’t know where to start. Waldrep allowed just four runs in his first six starts after getting his call to the majors in early August…against many of the worst offenses in the league (@CIN, MIA, @CLE, CWS, @MIA, @PHI), relying on a splitter that had its best game by far against the Phils with thirteen whiffs. His splitter was hammered by LHB and highly effective to RHB, while the rest of his arsenal is roughly average at best. Cutters, sliders, sinkers, four-seamers, curves, all of them tightly gravitate around each other, making one of the densest movement plots I’ve ever seen across a 4+ pitch mix, and I’m heavily skeptical Waldrep has enough in the tank to be a reliable starter in 2026.
Yes, I don’t like splitters…ONLY when they are used as a #1 or #2 pitch. A putaway offering like Schwellenbach’s? That’s dope! 32% usage with a 57% strike rate from Waldrep? That’s chaotic! And when his fastballs and sliders fail to earn whiffs or weak contact, he becomes incredibly reliant on that pitch to save him every game. He’s sure to have those marvelous moments when it clicks, just like Matt Shoemaker aka The Cobbler did back in the day with his splitter. Wait, Shoemaker was a guy I’d stream, not draft. He sure was. Ohhhhh. Now you get it.
Quick Take: Waldrep’s arsenal is too dependent on his splitter success to draft in 12-teamers. At 30%+ usage and a low strike rate, the split is volatile and lacks proper support from Waldrep’s supporting cast, making his success and failures harder to determine than his contemporaries. Avoid HIPSTER pitchers like Waldrep as much as you can.
Reynaldo López (RHP)
2025 Stats: 5.0 IP | 5.40 ERA | 2.20 WHIP | 4.0 K% | 8.0 BB%
To be honest, I completely forgot López even had a game last year. He started in March, had a worse fastball (but same velo!), and disappeared into the abyss of the IL with shoulder surgery shortly after. He’s expected to stretch out into a starter during the spring and return to the rotation, though it’s hard to believe he’ll be his stellar self again.
That said, if he’s available in the last round, he’s not the worst flier. Sure, I question if he can earn enough strikes with his breakers to hide his hittable four-seamer (especially LHB), but his slider gets a ton of whiffs and the curve has proven a lovely companion against LHB. If he’s out of the rotation or doesn’t look sharp early, let him go to the wire! Be free! And maybe you want to swap him before the season starts if he’s not on the bump the opening weekend – Don’t draft #5 SP, after all. At the very least, acknowledge the lost season and the value he presented as recently as 2024.
Quick Take: We had doubt he could replicate his absurd 1.99 ERA in 135 frames of 2024, and the pendulum swung hard in the other direction with a properly lost season. Now expected to return, it may be time to take a flier on ReyLó at the cost of free. If it’s more of the same, there’s a chance he surprises a second time.
On The Fringe
Grant Holmes (RHP)
2025 Stats: 115.0 IP | 3.99 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 25.0 K% | 11 BB%
It was a wild ride with REB last year. My anxiety of holding or dropping Holmes at the end April felt like a third-season sitcom romance of “will they, won’t they,” but Holmes redeemed himself with a strong 13-game stretch of 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 30% K rate in 74 IP (buoyed by Rockie Road and the Angels but let’s move on). The slider boasted a delicious 37% CSW during the stretch and began embracing a cutter to fend off batters packing their bags to go four-seamer hunting.
But his story ended before August arrived with UCL tear that the famous Dr. Neal ElAttrache took less seriously than other UCL injuries, suggesting he simply needed to “let the tissue scar over”. Holmes didn’t get surgery after that, electing rehab instead, and after twiddling our thumbs, waiting for news, we got a jolt of a quote on December 9th: “Look, my stuff’s better now than when I was totally healthy,” and that he’s having a completely normal off-season. Uh huh. At the very least, we should be heavily considering Holmes for the #5 spot out of camp (Pérez’s addition nullifies Schwellenbach’s injury), and if he does, maybe the stuff actually is better than ever. Wouldn’t that be something? I’m inclined to avoid the “Real Estate Broker” altogether as an easily labeled HIPSTER, though I can see myself getting pulled in for a stream and refusing to loosen my grasp of a phenomenal mane that somehow combines the cowardly lion, Kenny Powers, and Season 5 Dustin Henderson. THE CURLS.
Quick Take: Holmes’ 2024 ended with a UCL tear that has apparently recovered through rehab. With internal expectations of a normal offseason, Holmes could be comfortably in the rotation to start the year, ready to continue striking out batters with his filthy slider. Maybe the cutter is the answer for his fastball’s struggles against LHB, though his tumultuous nature seems to be more trouble than it’s worth.
Joey Wentz (LHP)
2025 Stats: 98.0 IP | 5.60 ERA | 1.56 WHIP | 20.8 K% | 9.7 BB%
Wentz has elements that can be pretty cool. He upped his extension from an average 6.5 foot mark to an excellent 7.0 clip in 2025, while shifting from a cutter to a slider and consistently landing the pitch low to both LHB and RHB, going BSB with the high heater. The curve helped + a changeup appeared in his final three games as a sign of things to come.
However, the results were…okay. He had some great sneaky starts intertwined with disastrous games and the value wasn’t quite there outside of specific streams. The Atlanta rotation looks crowded to kick off the season, though with Schwellenbach missing time, it’s possible he sneaks into the rotation out of camp, though the addition of Pérez makes it unclear when we’ll see Wentz in the rotation. To be safe, I’ll save an eyebrow raise for the moment he’s handed the pearl in the first. He teased development at the end of the year to become a proper SWATCH and with his above-average command, fantastic extension, and reliable slider, there is a path toward a 12-teamer add.
Quick Take: We saw Wentz have success in bursts as he added extension, a slider, and changeup in 2025, but there’s still work to be done. He’ll likely get another chance in the rotation at some point in 2026 and when the time comes, keep a watchful eye for a possible mid-season pickup.
Martín Pérez (LHP)
2025 Stats: 56.0 IP | 3.54 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 19.3 K% | 9.6 BB%
It looks like Atlanta was aware of the Schwellenbach injury in late January when they added Pérez to the squad, who likely will be the #5 out of camp to soak up innings while the young stud sits on the IL. For those unfamiliar with Pérez’s game, he was a SWATCH before it was cool, relying on his command to land sinkers and changeups away + cutters inside to RHB, while the sinker routinely jams LHB, hoping to get the rare punchout with slowballs at two strikes. There’s not a whole lot else in the tank, and while it can make for some decent nights of 5 IP and 2 ER, I’d be shocked if he became a staple of successful Aprils. Maybe one game here or there at most, that’s it.
Quick Take: I’m expecting Atlanta to get whatever they can from Pérez at the start of the season with Schwellenbach out for at least two months, which means there is some streaming potential for a cheap Win here and there. And while his sinker can take down LHB and the changeup befuddles RHB, his supporting cast are failing more each year to hold up their end of the Hava Nagila chair. I suggest you lean back and refuse to chase Pérez on the wire, so you stay in your seat.
Bryce Elder (RHP)
2025 Stats: 156.1 IP | 5.30 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 19.3 K% | 7.5 BB%
What is it with Bryce having a few sparkling games to convince a subset of trusting managers each season? In the meat of some fantasy playoffs, Elder returned just 4 ER in four starts from 8/24 through 9/8, but sandwiched these games with 14 ER. This is all the analysis you really need. Sure, I could tell you about his sinker finding gloves and the slider landing down and in town enough to get whiffs, which leads to the peaks and valleys, but in your heart, you see it in front of you. You don’t know what you’re going to get. I don’t like that. No, because you’re smart. This ain’t football, you don’t have to flip a coin every week.
Oh, and he’s the depth arm. Probably the third choice if Atlanta finds themselves in a similar situation as last year – all of their opening day starters landed on the IL at the same time – and there’s no need to draft him. Obviously. Let’s hope for Atlanta’s sake that he doesn’t need to step in too often. Update: Okay, it has already begun with Schwellenbach missing time. Still, I see Elder behind Holmes, Pérez, and Wentz.
Quick Take: He’s a sinker/slider arm who can have a lovely day when his slider is cooking and sinkers visit the infield grass. It’s difficult to discern when it will go well, though, and when he’ll even get the opportunity again. This ain’t it.
Names To Know
AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP)
I wasn’t thrilled to see AJSS lose a tick of velocity and become a four-seamer/splitter arm in the early months of the year, though he suddenly flattened his attack angle to open the door for upstairs whiffs with the heater. Sadly, he underwent TJS in June and should not be expected back in 2026. It’s possible he makes a return late in the year, but given his questionable ability when healthy, it’s a reach to expect production in a brief stint this season.
Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
It was a weird year of Atlanta trying to find anyone to fill in their gaps in the rotation after their entire starting rotation went on the IL, and Carrasco found his way to the squad by the end of it. He’s still there as of now and could find a start or two if injuries arise once again, but in all likelihood, he’s let go before the season starts and hopes to find a random start or two on another squad. This is not the Carrasco of old, it’s the old Carrasco, who is doing everything he can to throw sliders and changeups for strikes and induce whiffs, hoping he doesn’t have to throw the paltry fastballs. The dartest of dart throws on a given night.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Blake Burkhalter (RHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
He’s an over-the-top right-hander, with a good vert cut-fastball around 93/94 mph and a cutter underneath at 89 mph as his bread-and-butter. There’s a kick-change he struggles to wield with any accuracy (hopefully there’s some consistency in the future) and a curveball that hasn’t turned the corner to be a proper weapon against RHB, but the fastball/cutter combo does look like an approach that can work at the big league level as he loves to jam both inside to LHB. Walks are a touch of an issue at the moment as he misses out of the zone a little too often with the cutter and he lacks the big putaway offering at the moment, but there is a potential innings eater here, with a hint of more if the whiffs appear.
Cam Caminiti (LHP, A, Age 19) – Watch Video
He’s a super young, cross-firing southpaw with some giddy-up on his heater and a solid horizontal breaker, while the changeup is coming along nicely as a harder-throwing SWATCH. I see Nick Lodolo in him and it’s hard not to quickly get enamored watching that video, though I wonder about his control with his cross-body mechanics. But he’s the Braves’ #1 prospect! Well, I get it, though I’d love to see some more data first. With the acceleration of Fuentes to the majors last season at his young age, it’s not out of the question for Caminiti to follow suit and get a surprise call this year. THAT SAID, Atlanta is unlikely to be in the same situation as last season, and they have more options among their farm than before. If Caminiti appears this year, he’s worth the spec add, but the chances are incredibly low.
Didier Fuentes (RHP, MLB/AAA, Age 20) – Watch Video
Oh Didier. I was so dang intrigued when you appeared out of nowhere and I can’t help but still be fascinated. The four-seamer is a truly unique pitch that features above-average vert (15″ is average for all pitchers, but not with his low 29 degree arm angle!) and a 100th percentile 1.8 HAVAA. It makes for a fastball that should thrive at 95/96 mph upstairs and earn all the whiffs…except it didn’t. Batters torched the pitch for nearly 70% ICR and a sub 10% SwStr rate during his taste of the bigs and I refuse to believe that is his fate. The sweeper isn’t as obvious as someone like Pivetta given the lower angle, which makes me believe it’s more of a command issue (or maybe young tipping?), and will be ironed out in time. He does need more help against LHB, though, and hopefully the curveball’s 20% usage can do better than a 48% strike rate in the future (yikes). It has great two-plane break at 81 mph, and once it can find strikes 60% of the time paired with 55%+ hiLoc on his four-seamer, Fuentes will carve major league hitters. That’s a big IF, sadly, and it remains to be seen if Fuentes can command his arsenal properly. At least he has plenty of time at the ripe age of twenty.
Drue Hackenberg (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
There’s some excitement here. There’s a four-seamer and sinker in the mid-90s with promise to improve its shape over time, while a hard low-80s curveball with two-plane movement is the leading secondary. A cutter and changeup are involved as well, and I’m curious to see how they come along. Hackenberg should be monitored early in 2026 when he arrives in Triple-A, hopefully showcasing another step forward.
Ian Mejia (RHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
He’s a soft-tosser with a wide arsenal of four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, sliders/curves (I believe the curve is a mislabeled slider) and changeup, who can have stellar command at times. The slider is his most trusted pitch, though this is a Toby potential arm focused on command and variety over stuff. I question if he has enough in the mix to be valuable in fantasy leagues when he gets a shot for Atlanta, and I’m curious to see more than one game of data in Triple-A this season. I’m generally against low velocity arms reliant on command for prospects – command is off most of the time in their first season as they get acclimated – and this is a wait-and-see for 2026.
Jhancarlos Lara (RHP, AAA, Age 22) – Watch Video
He’s a 2.5 pitch arm (four-seamer + slider, with sinkers to RHB) who throws hard at 96+ mph, but the command is questionable and movement is meh. This is not the next Strider type with three major warts to remove (command, arsenal depth, movement) before becoming a legit MLB SP. Seems more like a reliever in my book, especially with his high 55%+ slider usage in Triple-A this year.
JR Ritchie (RHP, AAA, Age 22) – Watch Video
He’s a Toby type at 93/94 mph who focuses more on strikes with some crafty secondaries to earn outs and possibly return a strikeout per inning. The sinker and four-seamer merge at times, but there is a legit 4-6″ drop sinker in his utility belt, with a kick-change with massive drop for lefties (-3″ vert!). The two-plane curve at 82 mph will miss bats as well, while the sweeper/slider stays away from RHB. This could be your old Guardians style of questionable heaters and whiffable secondaries, though I worry there isn’t enough electricity to earn enough strikeouts to mask the heaters. He’s still young, however, and more refined to travel deeper into games than most of his 22-year-old counterparts. And hey, there’s a possibility the cutter takes over against LHB, solving most of the fastball issues. With his pitchability and time in Triple-A, expect Ritchie as one of the first calls to fill the rotation.
Owen Murphy (RHP, A+, Age 22) – Watch Video
He’s a strike-throwing, low velocity arm with carry on his four-seamer up in the zone and a vicious slider + solid mid-70s curveball. He doesn’t profile out as an exciting arm, but there could be a sufficient innings eater in time here.
