Houston Astros Rotation and SP Prospects Analyzed For 2026

Houston Astros 2026 Starting Pitchers & SP Prospects.

In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.

PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:

1. Early Ranking Access

As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.

Exclusive Look At Nick’s Updated 2026 SP Rankings:

2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV

At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.

3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research

With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:

Image Preview | Full Sheet

It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.

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One Sheet Of All Astros SPs:

 

Expected Starters

 

Hunter Brown (RHP)

2025 Stats: 185.1 IP | 2.43 ERA | 1.03 WHIP | 28.3 K% | 7.8 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Pitch Repertoire Table

Oh look, here comes Nick, galivanting down the hall like he’s smarter than us, ranking Hunter lower than others. Uhhh, that’s just how us tall people walk and I think it’s more of a “swing the limbs and try not to fall,” but I DIGRESS. For all of y’all who have followed me over the years, you’re the real ones who know that I don’t “stick to my guns” for the sake of it, nor do I float like a leaf in the wind of the industry. I’ll switch my take if there are proper changes that outline that take, or if I review my process and make a necessary tweak.

I don’t see any reason to change my view of Hunter Brown. Well, at least not to make him flirt with a Top 5 SP ranking entering 2026.

On the basic level, his 2025 didn’t add up to sustainability. A 28% strikeout rate with a sub 13% SwStr rate ain’t right, a sub .270 BABIP with a near 50% groundball rate is far too low, and an 82% LOB rate is regression 101. In short, fewer strikeouts, more hits (6.5 hit-per-nine is wild) and a higher WHIP with possibly a touch more walks as a result.

It’s all expressed in his arsenal. Brown is essentially a two-fastball guy with a wide supporting cast that doesn’t do a whole lot outside of his curveball, which became a major putaway pitch suddenly in 2025 to both LHB and RHB. And I legit love watching the pitch with elite movement for its 83/84 mph velocity, but it’s also a sub 60% strike pitch, with the role of getting strike three.

The best skill in Brown’s utility belt are a four-seamer/sinker pair that he commands incredibly well. And he must, considering they have deadzone movement. After shifting his four-seamer from up-middle to up-away against RHB, the strike rate went down (as expected), but its ICR plummeted from 47% to just 35%. Yes, adding an extra tick of velocity out of nowhere to sit roughly 97 mph is also a major deal, and the two combined were the biggest catalyst for his successful season.

It only works if he spots the sinker and Brown does beautifully for a 72% inside location to RHB, creating distinct pitch separation from his four-seamer. That sinker was unstoppable last season with a 26% ICR (!) across 37% usage, and that’s just bonkers.

LHB are still a bit of problem for Hunter, if you can believe it. His four-seamer was able to overperform against them in 2025, carrying a -10 Hit Luck, 8% HR/FB rate, and a 37% ICR that I cannot buy into, while the changeup returned just 54% strikes, and his sinker + curve filled in the rest with plenty of hard hit balls. It’s still an issue he hasn’t solved.

It was the perfect season for Mr. Brown. Maybe it’s a new velocity plateau and the curveball + four-seamer will continue to carry 28% putaway rates, keep the strikeouts flowing, and suppress hits better than 90% of his peers. At the very least, a regression is still miles away from harmful, and I consider him a relatively safe pick. However, I don’t see his ceiling as safe as guys like Woo, Greene, Gilbert, etc., which has me a little lower than the rest of the crowd.

Sorry for all the rambling, I took a long time diving in on Brown to ensure I wasn’t fueled by old emotion. Remember, I just want every pitcher to be dope and Brown is no exception. Now go, and please find yourself a fantastic #2 pitch for LHB.

Quick Take: While it’s clear that Hunter will struggle to replicate the glory of 2025, Brown’s four-seamer and sinker command at 96+ velocity with an effective curveball to put away batters makes him a stable volume arm for all leagues at the cost of a lower realistic peak ceiling relative to his peers.

 

Cristian Javier (RHP)

2025 Stats: 37.0 IP | 4.62 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 21.7 K% | 9.6 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Pitch Repertoire Table

I know it feels like wishcasting for 2022, but I truly think Javier has it in him to be a legit starter again. 2023 was rough with his command and 2024 ended early with TJS, its effect rippling into 2025 and leaving us with just eight starts to end the year.

But here’s the thing. His four-seamer is still great. His changeup was fantastic to LHB as he threw it in the zone more than ever. His sweeper has always done well to RHB, but he’s tugged it too far off the outside edge. The curveball has fun movement, though Javier has always struggled to get it to land properly for a strike. He’s also started to throw a sinker to RHB as a mix-up pitch, which is far from an exceptional offering, but as a surprise pitch? Yeah, that’s kinda cool. If he can locate it on the inner half n all, of course.

This is all to say that on paper, Javier has more upside than his 300+ ADP will tell you and I get a sense he’ll actually be a sleeper in drafts this March as the perfect late round target in 12-teamers. The ceiling is grand, while you’ll be able to get a sense of his ability early on – well, maybe not, but if it doesn’t work in the first start, push down the emotions of making a bad drop. Just move on and hope you can snag him later if he rebounds. And that’s the worst case! Best case, changeups and sweepers are trusted in the zone and his four-seamer continues doing its thing upstairs (hopefully at a lower arm angle like in 2022, making a 1.4 HAVAA, not the 1.1 HAVAA we saw in 2024 and 2025).

Quick Take: It may be silly to wish for a guy to return to his 2022 form, but considering the last two years as lost ones due to TJS, it’s really just one down year from Javier, who still possesses an elite four-seamer, showcased trust in changeups over the plate to LHB last season, and has a sweeper that seemingly would succeed if he simply aimed it to land more middle of the plate than off the edge. He has a locked rotation spot and legit upside during his TJS honeymoon. That’s the recipe of a proper sleeper pick.

 

Tatsuya Imai (RHP)

2025 Stats (NPB): 163.2 IP | 1.92 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 27.8 K% | 7.0 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Ah yes, the lovely moment where I need to provide a review for a pitcher who has never pitched in the MLB. There is so much guesswork that goes into assessing a guy like Imai, so let me outline the information we’re working with.

Go watch Lance Brozdowski’s breakdown of Imai. He normally sits 93-96 mph with the ability to push it 98-100 when he needs it, using a “reverse” slider as his main secondary, which has slight arm-side horizontal movement instead of the typical glove-side break, and a trio of different splitter grips to earn whiffs. That four-seamer comes with an incredibly flat attack angle that had Eno Sarris comparing him to a harder-throwing Joe Ryanand that will come down to Imai’s ability to get the heater up-stairs consistently.

He’s been a workhorse in Japan and I expect the Astros to treat him as such during the season…with a six-man rotation. That can be a bummer, though I do believe it’ll raise the chances of Imai staying healthy through the season and the way we’ve outlined the absurd injury risks for simply being a starting pitcher, we’ll take 28 starts of near six frames per inning, aiming for 165 frames total for the season. Those frames shouldn’t hurt you with a low WHIP, a strikeout per inning, and a decent ERA with a ceiling for sparkling ratios, on a winning team. That sounds pretty dang safe to me. But the contract! ~$60 Million for three years? Well, with an opt-out after the first and let me tell you, I’d be shocked if Imai doesn’t exercise his option. It’s a classic “bet on myself” deal and I believe the Astros got a massive discount. Let’s not forget that Imai could continue developing, with his 28th birthday arriving in May.

Quick Take: Imai looks like a safe starter to snag in the middle rounds of drafts. His four-seamer is ultra flat like Joe Ryan’s at a harder velocity, with the only question being if he’ll adapt and command it well enough to soar. The slider and splitter are both whiff pitches, with the former acting a proper companion to both RHB and LHB, and the Astros are sure to let him go deep into games after an initial grace period of a few starts given the high likelihood of exercising his opt-out clause. I’m so down for this.

 

Mike Burrows (RHP)

2025 Stats: 96.0 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 24.1 K% | 7.7 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Pitch Repertoire Table

You’re going to see Burrows on a whole lot sleeper lists by March and it makes sense. Here’s a guy with a 24% strikeout rate heading from the Pirates to the Astros (Remember Cole and Musgrove?), who is now going to be on a longer leash and allowed to throw 90 pitches per start. I’m not so convinced.

First and foremost, I don’t see the same gap in analytics between the Pirates and Astros as we saw a decade ago. After all, go look at Burrows’ profile and tell me: What do the Astros change? It’s not as simple as it was having Cole throw four-seamers instead of sinkers and lean into the slider (with sticky stuff, too). Burrows showed us what he is last season and it’s questionable. It’s an elite changeup paired with a 95/96 mph four-seamer with some vert and good command upstairs, but few whiffs (sub 10% to both LHB and RHB), and a slider that struggles to get depth. That’s it, really.

There is a sinker Burrows could lean into more against RHB, but its lack of ride is suspect. The curveball could be a larger strike pitch to LHB over time, and maybe he should swap the usage of 40% four-seamers and 35% changeups to LHB. There’s also the fact that Burrows only saw six full frames twice in 2025 and this limited arsenal makes him highly susceptible to the third-time-through penalty.

And yet, after all this blathering, I’m totally fine grabbing him in the last round of drafts. Why not? He’ll have an opportunity in a good situation (albeit, once every six days, sometimes seven), and the Astros could have a plan for him that works. At least he has an elite pitch with 95+ mph heaters – that’s a decent foundation to build upon.

Quick Take: I’m not convinced that the current iteration of Burrows is enough to warrant a draft-and-hold for fantasy managers in 2026. His changeup is elite and will get the job done, but his 95/96 mph four-seamer struggles to miss bats without much else going on under the hood, and his slider lacks drop to earn whiffs against RHB. Circle him as a flier to inspect early in the season, and not as a target you need to leave your draft with.

 

On The Fringe

 

Ryan Weiss (RHP)

2025 Stats (KBO): 178.2 IP | 2.87 ERA | 1.02 WHIP | 28.6 K% | 7.7 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

I’m circling Weiss as a sleeper arm for 2026 until something in the spring suggests otherwise. The Astros are highly likely to feature a six-man rotation with Imai in the mix and with the injury concerns of McCullers Jr. and Arrighetti, Weiss has an easy track to a starting job, and I’d be surprised if the Astros signed him from the KBO for $5 Million without the vision of an innings eater for a rotation that badly needs one.

As with many arms coming from overseas, there is haze surrounding Weiss’ skill set and how it will speak to MLB opponents. His final season in the KBO returned 178.2 IP of a 2.87 ERA, 29% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and nearly 50% grounders. I watched some video and Weiss looks to have an 85 mph breaker with two-plane movement that misses bats and propelled his near 30% strikeout rate, while sitting around 93-95 mph and able to gas it up to 96/97 mph when he spent time relieving during the playoffs. It seems like a sinker with horizontal movement that catalyzes the groundball rate, though I could be wrong, and he features a circle change with major drop, seemingly rounding out the mix. I’m not sure how effective the approach will be against LHB – Can he earn strikes with the changeup? Is he able to go sweeper heavy? Does he have a four-seamer that can survive? – but the breakers and heaters should make for a strong attack against RHB that will allow him to rack up the frames.

I’m so in. Here is your high volume arm with a 22%+ strikeout rate and possibility for quality ratios on a winning team, completely ignored in drafts, allowing you to snag him in the last round. Upside comes in multiple forms, with quality volume being the wiser choice over volaitle youth.

Quick Take: Weiss has the perfect opportunity in front of him. The Astros need volume and after 177 innings in the KBO with a filthy sweeper, a mid 90s fastball, and heavy drop changeup, he looks like an arm who can go 90+ pitches regularly at a strikeout per inning without destroy your ratios. We’ll get a better picture this spring and early in the year, and with a possible date with the Cardinals to kick off the season, I’d love to take a gamble.

 

Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP)

2025 Stats: 55.1 IP | 6.51 ERA | 1.81 WHIP | 22.3 K% | 14.2 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Pitch Repertoire Table

We haven’t seen McCullers Jr. healthy since, what 2021? And even then he was a touch limited, initially with sticky stuff and throwing a sweeper “like a pizza” that effectively destroyed his arm for just 24 games total in four seasons since. That’s six games a year! But this is his year! I sure would like to believe that. His 2025 was diminished not because he got a late start in May, nay, a foot sprain, blister, and right hand soreness each placed McCullers on the IL at separate times across the season. But those are freak injuries! Or he’s one of those pitchers that is more injury prone than others.

All of that talk is about health, and we’re smart fantasy managers. We know that the health wart is our favorite wart. What a fella. You see, if health is the only question, there’s an easier path toward value in your drafts – just be healthy! – and if he’s not on the field, you move on quickly. That’s all fine and dandy if we could trust a healthy McCullers. The times we saw him start last year were exactly what you’d expect: Secondaries galore with an inconsistent ability to throw strikes. Case and point, twice he allowed at least 7 ER only to put up 0 or 1 ER in his next game. That’s what he does. That’s who he is – the poster child of a HIPSTER. In fact, I believe he was the impetus for the initial term. So do what you will with McCullers. If he’s actually healthy all throughout the spring, you can expect the Astros to get as many frames out of Lance as they can as the SP #5/#6. However, I cannot tell you that a healthy Lance is worth the anxiety he’s sure to bring. I’d so much rather remove myself from it all.

Quick Take: He’s been haunted by the injury bug all his career and this spring is no different as McCullers’ ability to pitch every six days is still in question, and it’s questionable if Lance is valuable even as a regular arm. He’ll get a fair number of strikeouts, though the ratios are heavily at risk due to an inability to find strikes with his breakers, paired with a sinker that gets laced often. I see McCullers as an arm to consider in 15-team roto leagues to grab a few extra strikeouts in April, and to not push your luck more than that.

 

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)

2025 Stats: 35.1 IP | 5.35 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 19.9 K% | 12.8 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Pitch Repertoire Table

The Astros have two injury questions entering the spring with McCullers and The Pasta Pirate in contention for the rotation, and the latter is far more compelling. After an encouraging end to the 2024 season, Arrighetti first fractured his thumb in April, and only shortly after returning from four months on the shelf, Arrighetti went back on the IL with elbow inflammation. Rough. At least his UCL wasn’t torn and no surgery was needed, opening the door for Arrighetti to be healthy for the spring.

Let’s say Arrighetti has a normal spring training and is situated inside the Astros’ rotation. There’s a shot for Spencer to be a great pick-up if he’s able to pitch at the same level we saw in August and September of 2024 – Sweepers, curveballs, cutters, and sliders galore, finding strikes and earning whiffs, avoiding massive punishment on his deadzone four-seamer. I also have to point out that Arrighetti comes with over seven feet of extension and a super flat attack angle. It just happens to have horrific movement and lacks the precision upstairs to take advantage of its best facets. Who knows, maybe Arrighetti figures out how to go from a below-average hiLoc of 47% and flirts with a 60% rate? Wouldn’t that be something.

My gut is telling me that Arrighetti can’t be trusted, even if he has a rotation spot. We’ve only seen a brief moment of everything coming together, and even in his best period, there was still inconsistent command and more hard contact than we’d like. He has HIPSTER painted all over him without the injury considerations and I’d prefer to throw my hat into different rings. Where can I find a place to throw hats into rings? I’ll have my people call your people. My man.

Quick Take: Arrighetti had a lost 2025 due to injury, ending with the stuff of nightmares: An IL stint due to elbow inflammation. The hope is for Arrighetti to appear in the spring and hopefully be in the rotation out of camp, and even assuming the best, Spencer’s track record of questionable command makes him difficult to endorse outside of a final dart throw once he’s confirmed in the rotation. As much as I’d love to see him get into rhythm, I have to acknowledge the terrible floor of his home. Just get a guy to tile it or something.

 

J.P. France (RHP)

2025 Stats: 4.0 IP | 2.25 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 31.2 K% | 12.5 BB%

2026 PL Projection:

Pitch Repertoire Table

UPDATE – 1/29: France was DFA’d, cleared waivers, and was outrighted to the minors.

France required surgery for a torn right shoulder capsule in 2024, and we had to wait until September 2025 before we got another glimpse of him – two relief appearances, thirteen days apart, with the latter accompanied by three frames and four strikeouts. He’s back. Oh pish posh. He’s not.

At the very least, France will have a chance to impress in camp for a rotation spot, though I have my doubts he’ll beat out the newly signed Weiss or a healthy Arrighetti or McCullers. His ability is heavily suspect without a proper whiff pitch, though it was fun to see France’s arm angle lower four degrees in those two games, creating a flat 1.5 HAVAA and adding cut to his fastball while losing so much vert. It’s possible he’s found a new whiff pitch in that 92 mph heater, though he didn’t locate it upstairs at all and I’ve already exhausted myself from all this wishcasting.

At the very least, he has a blank slate entering camp and he has the chance to impress and demand volume early in the season. There’s something to that, and if his curveball can become a 65% strike pitch with a fastball that is harder to hit, and a cutter for stabilizing counts, that could be something. Don’t get your hopes up.

Quick Take: Last we saw France in the rotation, he was detrimental to your fantasy teams. Now removed from an extended time on the IL recovering from shoulder capsule surgery, France has a lower arm angle and still carries little hope of becoming a reliable starter, let alone one that forces the Astros to grant him a rotation spot. But hey, spring comes with many surprises and at least France has a blank slate and the sliver of a chance to demand consistent frames.

 

Names To Know

 

Jason Alexander (RHP)

Alexander is trying to be a right-handed version of Dallas Keuchelwithout the breaker. That is, he gets elite drop on his sinker (close to -1″) and pairs it to RHB with an identical changeup away with 10 mph less velocity. It demolishes for the most part, with hiccups coming in the form of standard 60% groundball BABIP. There’s also a big sweeper that he’s failed to wrangle and he doesn’t need it. The sinker and slowball get the job done.

LHB are a bit tricky. You’d think the changeup would be better, but Alexander struggles to get the ball down-and-away, keeping it gloveside often, as he does against RHB. It would be good enough if it had some friends to help, but it’s a sinker to a LHB – y’all know that’s going to end poorly. The pitch doesn’t miss lefty bats and gets hit plenty harder than its RHB counterpart, and with questionable sweepers and a surprise four-seamer upstairs doesn’t work as expected with his low 91/92 mph velocity and ultra steep attack angle (he raises his arm angle for the four-seamer. Kinda wild). Womp womp.

The Astros didn’t trust him the third time through the lineup often and I see him as a temp arm for the club when needed, and hopefully he gets a few matchups against RHB-heavy lineups where we can stream him. The only hope for more is a cutter to dive into LHB with the low 23-degree arm slot, but that remains to be seen.

 

Colton Gordon (LHP)

He’s a low 90s southpaw who doesn’t do his job against LHB and his attack to RHB needs work. Maybe there’s a SWATCH in the making here with decent extension and a changeup that was getting more focus against RHB later in the year, though his feel for the sweeper and curve is suspect, with huge swings in movement and poor execution. Tweaks need to be made and witnessed in-season with a secure job for me to give him any attention.

 

Roddery Muñoz (RHP)

I have a soft spot for Muñoz, who has a vicious 87/88 mph slider with more drop than most, 95+ mph heaters, and a 92 mph cutter he features as his main pitch to LHB on the inner half. His poor extension and deadzone four-seamer movement makes it a pitch reserved for the upper third against LHB when sitting cutters, and his sinker does a good job of finding the right spots of the zone with decent ride, creating a good enough foundation for 40%+ sliders to cook. There isn’t enough pizzazz to get stoked for him when he gets a proper opportunity, but I see above-average command and a fantastic slider with good velocity and a solid cutter. That can work, right?

 

Ronel Blanco (RHP)

Blanco had TJS in June 2025 and you shouldn’t have any expectation he returns to the rotation by the end of 2026. Maybe as a reliever, where he can go all slider heavy he wants and have a ball. His game was “Can’t hit my fastball if I don’t throw my fastball in the zone” and then go back to the slider or changeup, which kinda fits for relief at the end of the year. We’ll see if he’s anything interesting for 2027.

 

Hayden Wesneski (RHP)

Wesneski is both intriguing and easily avoidable and someone to discuss entering 2027 after getting TJS in May of 2025. He breaks the Huascar Rule of having a really good sweeper and not much else, albeit a cutter he was embracing before injury to LHB, but that’s not enough. The fastballs are poor, even when they were 94 mph with seven feet of extension in 2024, and I’ll likely be out next year, too.

 

AJ Blubaugh (LHP)

Blubaugh is an odd one. His 94/95 mph four-seamer has legit two-plane movement from the right-side, which made it a legit weapon against LHB up-and-away and I’m impressed with AJ’s ability to do so frequently (20% SwStr to LHB?!). He still needs to figure out his kick-change feel to LHB to provide another weapon and prevent fastball hunting as his legit sweeper doesn’t work nearly as well against his opposite-handed foes. Against RHB? That sweeper destroys. The changeup is reserved as a putaway offering and does so decently well, and his four-seamer is situated up-and-away, which I’m not a huge fan of (keep it up-middle/in, right?), and shocked to report that blubaugh has no sinker in sight. Given the 18″ of horizontal on the changeup and his four-seamer’s two-plane movement, merged with an ability to land glove-side four-seamers against LHB, it’s an obvious addition that I’d expect to see in 2026. I’m far more interested than I expected, though it comes down to his four-seamer’s effectiveness against LHB. Is that a proper whiff pitch and can it get enough help from his changeup or return of his cutter? There’s a path toward a solid SP here if he can give us the receipts.

 

Relevant Prospects

Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.

For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.

 

Ethan Pecko (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video

Pecko initially worries me based on a 93/94 mph four-seamer and sinker with deadzone movement at a high arm angle. However, his ability to locate his sweeper, cutter, and curve have me intrigued, especially if he can find a way to limit his fastball usage. The kick change is still a wild stallion he hopes to wrangle in the new year, though the slowball could be the final piece that allows him to feature heaters under 30% of the time, as opposed to his ~40% usage at the moment. Without a dominant heater or absurd breaking ball, I’m out on Pecko for fantasy purposes.

 

Jose Fleury (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video

Fleury’s four-seamer comes in at 90 mph and does him few favors, and his true weapon is an 80 mph kick-change that he can harness inside and out of the zone incredibly well. Sure, there’s a cutter, sweeper, and curve in the mix, too, but it’s all about this changeup that he throws to both RHB and LHB. You know me – I don’t like changeup-focused RHB, especially at lower velocities – and if you think of Jason Alexandereven he had a sinker to help keep grounders coming. Fleury isn’t for me.

 

Miguel Ullola (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video

I absolutely adore Ullola’s four-seamer with nearly seven feet of extension, 17-18″ of vert and a super flat 1.5 HAVAA. I’d be totally fine with its 93 mph velocity if I believed he could go Bailey Ober-izzi with it, but it struggles to find strikes and doesn’t sit in hiLoc the way we want. His “slider” is really a cutter at 88 mph that has too much vert to be truly dominant, his 80 mph curve is fine and can find the zone, though it doesn’t have great feel, and all my excitement for that fastball dissipates with my lack of faith in his command. Maybe there’s a tweak to be made for the young 23-year-old that can unlock his potential.

 

Trey Dombroski (LHP, AAA, Age 24) – Watch Video

He had two starts in Triple-A last year after a 3.61 ERA for the Hooks of Double-A across most of 2025, and we may see the Astros give him a cup of coffee at some point this season for a spot start. I’d be shocked if it were much more than that, though. He sports a 90 mph heater with a gyro slider and 79 mph curve underneath, hoping to be a SWATCH at the end of the day. It’s just too blegh for me to highlight in any way – at least the other rookie southpaws in Houston had fantastic elements like extension or a legit sweeper, etc. I’d be shocked if he became a major fantasy arm in the near future, if at all.

 

Bryce Mayer (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video

He’s sitting mid-90s with fastballs and a great feel for spin from the right side, and obliterated the competition in 2025 with 112 strikes and just 27 walks in only 87.2 IP. The low release of his fastball helps it perform upstairs, and his sweeper + curveball have generated plenty of whiffs in his first full year in professional ball. After getting a taste of Double-A last year across 29 frames, expect Mayer to rise to Triple-A this season if he showcases the same strikeout ability while limiting the free passes.

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Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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