Updated 2/10/26 with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander added.
In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
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With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Tarik Skubal (LHP)
2025 Stats: 195.1 IP | 2.21 ERA | 0.89 WHIP | 32.2 K% | 4.4 BB%
He’s good. You know he’s good. He’s a SWATCH but happens to throw 97+ mph and can push over 100 at times and that’s all kinds of awesome. If you want him as your SP #1, sure, go ahead. I have Skubal behind Crochet and Skenes for simple reasons: He shouldn’t earn as many Wins as Crochet and Skenes’ arsenal speaks to better ratios. But then again, he could go 200 IP and feature 250 strikeouts with a sub 2.50 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP, which is absolutely beautiful. So you do you. Imagine how good he’d be if he could get his slider down and return more than a 7% SwStr to LHB…
Quick Take: You know Tarik is dope and makes us feel dope. His elite velocity, absurd changeup, stellar control, and consistency to go at least six frames is rare in today’s game, and even if we expect slight regression to his velocity or execution, Skubal will still be far above those outside the top tier.
Framber Valdez (LHP)
2025 Stats: 192.0 IP | 3.66 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 23.3 K% | 8.5 BB%
Hello, old…friend. Framber’s 2024 and 2025 were complete opposites, maintaining his reputation as a frustrating arm to project for a full year. 2024 was rough until he found his elite curveball and had a Top 5 SP run to save his season in the second half, while 2025 picked up where he left off through July with a 2.62 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP, until destroying that trust with a 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in his final ten games. Because of that curveball? Why yes, because of that curveball. It went from a 68% strike rate to roughly 55%, while dropping its SwStr as he turned and displayed his second face.
I could go on about Valdez’s arsenal, including a sinker that ranks among the best in baseball against LHB (5.65 PLV with a 24% ICR!), and routinely prays to Koufax against RHB + a changeup that can be a devastating #2 to mask the sinker but his feel for it fluctuates like appearances of Springfield residents when Homer is up to his old antics. I could also discuss the highly suspect moment of intentionally hitting his catcher in the chest protector, or if the Tigers’ defense is prepared for an onslaught of groundballs. It’s all truly dependent on Framber’s feel for the curveball and at this point, I’m willing to say he will and he won’t. So yes, I’m going to do the ole “let’s average the two seasons” that I hate so much, which returns a productive volume arm for roto leagues, and an undulating menace in H2H leagues, challenging your ability to keep a cool head. Logically, he’s a solid play. Emotionally, be prepared.
Quick Take: Framber’s curveball was the savior of 2024 and the destroyer of 2025. It’s generally safe to expect Valdez to provide productive volume across six full months, while a granular lens will fragment a cohesive line of quality into a few wide plateaus and valleys. Let’s hope the hook is excellent early on and stays that way for at least four months.
Jack Flaherty (RHP)
2025 Stats: 161.0 IP | 4.64 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 27.6 K% | 8.7 BB%
He’s such an interesting arm. Flaherty’s sub 30 degree arm angle makes his four-seamer’s 15″+ of vert actually good as it’s more than expected from a lower slotted four-seamer. Combined with a 1.6 HAVAA, the four-seamer looks like a proper weapon to get strikes in the upper third of the zone. Except that’s not what Flaherty does. In fact, he leaned heavily into low fastballs in 2025, returning 99th percentile loLoc and 1st percentile hiLoc. Wait, what. Yeaaaah. He was trying to go the low called strike route to set up his great curve and slider underneath, but his incredibly flat attack angle betrays the approach, matching the flatter bat path when swinging at low pitches. The result of the approach was more hard contact than ever before with essentially the same called strike rate and fewer whiffs. The slight dip in velocity doesn’t help, too.
His curve and slider took a step back as well. Both offerings returned fewer strikes to LHB, and he stole some sliders to RHB for more curveballs, which granted more strikes, but didn’t have the desired effect, and allowed more hard contact.
What I see is simple. Flaherty has an opportunity to change himself once again by leaning into the high four-seamer as a surprise offering, while leaning heavily into his best skill: locating curveballs and sliders down. Use them 60% of the time instead of 50%, and attack attack attack. Do whatever it takes to prevent batters from fastball hunting, which is far-and-away the weakest link of the chain. At least, that’s my take. Flaherty’s ability to earn whiffs continues to make me intrigued (27%+ strikeout rate last year) and he sure feels like a guy who could go on another dominant stretch with another tweak. I wonder if we’ll see a new approach early in the year, or possibly this is an in-season change. If we don’t see anything, the WHIP will stay high and the HRs are likely to return. Maybe this is how Melton enters the rotation…
Quick Take: Flaherty had a rough 2025, but still has the ability to miss bats and churn strikeouts, rooted in his two stellar breaking balls. If he can make the adjustments to lessen the damage on his fastball, he could be a sneaky arm for fantasy teams. Don’t rule him out just yet.
Casey Mize (RHP)
2025 Stats: 149.0 IP | 3.87 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 22.2 K% | 5.7 BB%
Oh Mize. The four-seamer has deadzone movement and a neutral attack, which has batters hunting it constantly as he locates it upstairs at 95 mph – even with Mize’s near 7 feet of extension. His sinker does an incredible job of earning strikes (80% clip!) and splitting time with the four-seamer inside, while the slider/cutter thing and splitter both are effective enough against RHB to justify theft of his four-seamer’s focus. Use that heater as a surprise pitch 10-15% of the time and stop going away with it, yeah? Let the sinker, splitter, and slider do the rest.
For LHB, it’s a little similar. The fastball still gets hit hard, but Mize’s feel for strikes on his splitter is still there (68% strikes!). Its ability to get over the plate pushed Mize over 30% usage of the pitch, but it was destroyed constantly. My theory is simple: Batters go four-seamer hunting and the splitter often hangs close enough to the heater that batters can make the quick adjustment and find the barrel. The solution? Twofold. Throw more of the effective slider (68% strikes and 31% ICR at just 19% usage last year to LHB) instead of the four-seamer and work on getting the splitter down. It’s not a perfect answer (splitters are volatile, that fastball will still get hit, more sliders may make them less effective, etc.), but it’s something he can do to steer the ship.
It wouldn’t take a whole lot for Mize to turn from a near 1.30 WHIP into a sub 1.20 mark with his low 6% walk rate. Just have to find a little less hard contact and bring down the hits-per-nine under 9.0 for just the second time of his career. That seems like a tall order. It probably is, given how he has rough feel for spin and the slider/cutter has been a work in progress for a long time. At least he has the runway to keep tweaking until something clicks.
Quick Take: Mize’s four-seamer is too dang hittable and it’s a problem. Without a good feel for spin, his splitter is the main weapon to LHB and should be more of a focus to RHB, while we can only hope he is comfortable with his slider/cutter/whatever that is to be thrown 25% of the time to both handed batters. He’ll be given a long leash in the Tigers’ rotation to figure it out, making him an interesting late round flier based on opportunity. If he doesn’t have the breaker and continues to brute force the four-seamer, step away quickly.
Justin Verlander (RHP)
2025 Stats: 152.0 IP | 3.85 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 20.7 K% | 7.9 BB%
Pitch Repertoire Table
You may have seen Verlander struggle in the first half of the season and forgotten about him. I get it, we all tune out at some point. What you would have missed was 42-year-old Verlander (Eno calls him the modern Nolan Ryan) returning a 2.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate across his final thirteen games of the season. Now 43-years-old for the season ahead, he’s off to Detroit for what may be his swan song for his home team, and I gotta say, that’s pretty dang cool.
Cool enough to roster? Honestly, maybe. At the very least in 15-teamers where Verlander will continue to plow a good two-plane four-seamer upstairs to RHB and pair it with a whiffable slider and high 36% CSW curveball to steal called strikes, and we could see the sinker we saw just seven times sprinkled around the start of summer make a proper appearance for one final new trick. Don’t you dare call him an old dog.
That heater struggled immensely against LHB, though, and his vicious slider wasn’t enough to stave off 50% ICR across 43% usage. Yikes. That’s an issue he’ll have to sort out – maybe the changeup feel improves from a 56% strike rate and can be featured more than 14% of the time, or it’s possible the curve lands down a little more often instead of hanging out inside the zone for demolition. At any rate, the Tigers are going to let Verlander go as long as his heart will let him, creating Quality Start opportunities for those who need it, filling out the resume of our Toby poster child for the year ahead. On paper, at least.
Quick Take: Verlander is back in Detroit and his stellar slider has kept the whiffs flowing as his four-seamer and curveball aren’t what they used to be. The Tigers will likely let Verlander toss 90+ pitches as often as his body will let him, creating a volume arm for deeper formats who could hold a 20%+ strikeout rate and possibly provide worthy ratios. However, the upside is too limited to chase in 12-team formats, save for moments where a Win or QS streamer are needed.
On The Fringe
Reese Olson (RHP) – OUT FOR 2026 SEASON
2025 Stats: 68.2 IP | 3.15 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 22.8 K% | 8.8 BB%
UPDATE 2/10: Reese Olson is out for the 2026 season due to shoulder surgery. I’m leaving the blurb below as a reference point for 2027.
I have so many questions. Is he healthy and ready to go? Olson missed two months in-season, then was shut down at the end of July with a shoulder strain. The latest update outlines a throwing program starting in mid-December, which seems like he’ll be good for spring training, but we never know. If Olson isn’t good to go, expect one of Melton or SGL in his place, or maybe even Montero or De Jesus. Wild, I know.
But let’s say Olson is fine and dandy. How much should we dig what he does? His low extension and deadzone movement render a horrific four-seamer that he truly should not touch, while the sinker lost three inches of drop from 2024 to 2025, likely due to a higher release point, which may have been catalyzed by his shoulder injury. His changeup and slider have been the true stars of the arsenal, each featured over 20% of the time with a 20%+ SwStr rate to both handed batters. They should still be excellent offerings again next season, though what does he pair with them to LHB? He’s been featuring four-seamers 31% of the time, which was not the worst last season in the smaller sample, but it’s a clear issue Olson still needs to solve. In addition, the sinker shifted from jamming RHB to an attempt to steal backdoor called strikes, which lowered his CSW and inflated his ICR nearly ten points. Please bring that sinker back inside.
Where does that leave us? Olson has an injury ding against him already – will he be the same after this shoulder strain? – and still has the same weakness before against LHB. He profiles to be a Toby who could become a Holly if the secondaries are utilized a bit better and the four-seamer disappears, though the ceiling isn’t as high as others who have easier holes to fill or simply lack the opportunity. With a lower floor than his 3.53 and 3.15 ERAs of the past two years suggest and lacking the true Top 20 SP ceiling, I’m considering other arms before I enter the haze surrounding Olson.
Quick Take: He’s out for all of 2026 with shoulder surgery. Ignore. Olson’s strong ERA and potential strikeout numbers are alluring, but they come with major questions that need answering, including a foundational pitch to LHB, and a shoulder strain that may affect both his timeline and ability in 2026. Without a clear path toward a Top 20 ceiling and a cavity forming below him, consider Olson a flier, not a target for 2026.
Drew Anderson (RHP)
2025 Stats (KBO): 171.2 IP | 2.25 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 31.9 K% | 10.6 BB%
Who? Anderson is returning to the majors after an NRI in the Tigers’ camp in 2024, and Jason Beck reported that Anderson’s 95/96 mph velocity displayed in camp held throughout his time in Korea, where he’s since learned a kick-change to add to his curveball, helping him return a 2.25 ERA and collect 245 strikeouts in 2025. Wait, you think he’s going to get a rotation spot over Melton and SGL?! Yes, I do. And I think you should be intrigued.
We rarely see SPs overseas get signed and not enter the rotation, especially after spending $7 Million for a one-year deal. Anderson’s success across a full season provides the Tigers with a volume arm with upside at the back of their rotation, though I wonder what we’ll get from his breaker(s?) to prevent batters from hunting his heater. Like many arms coming over from Asia, Anderson will likely be undervalued in drafts this year, especially if he quickly solidifies himself in the rotation in camp…which would take one more injury as Skubal, Framber, Verlander, Flaherty, and Mize make a full five-man rotation. Take note – a volume arm with strikeout potential for a winning(?) team can provide huge value.
Quick Take: We don’t know a whole lot about how well Anderson will ultimately perform in the majors, but 95+ mph velocity with a kick-change, curveball, and immense success in the KBO should get your attention. The Tigers’ willingness to spend $7 Million for one season grants Anderson a high chance of being a part of the Tigers’ rotation on opening day as an arm expected to go 85+ pitches regularly. He’s the kind of arm we love grabbing late.
Troy Melton (RHP)
2025 Stats: 45.2 IP | 2.76 ERA | 1.01 WHIP | 20.0 K% | 8.3 BB%
I’m infatuated, but cautious. Melton has deadzone movement on his fastballs, but 96+ mph with near seven feet extension and a 1.5 HAVAA on the four-seamer makes up for that, especially with Melton’s ability to sit in the upper third of the strikezone. He easily spots the slider under the four-seamer inside the zone (maybe a little too much in the zone) and the pair work wonders to RHB (with sinkers that need to get inside more often), saving the cutter, splitter, and curveball for LHB. His attack isn’t quite as effective there, where Melton is missing a clear whiff pitch. The splitter is, well, a splitter, and the slider has been the most effective swing-and-miss offering, but he fails to spot it frequently under the barrel of bats down-and-in. His cutter is my favorite of the bunch as a strike offering and it may be a case of his four-seamer needing to be the final blow, with the rest getting him to two strikes effectively.
His four-seamer foundation with a strong slider and cutter makes me excited to watch Melton develop when he gets his footing in the rotation, even if it should come with peaks and valleys typical of the Shag Rug. But when will that be? With the signing of Framber, Verlander, and Anderson and their set limitations of Melton in 2025, it’s possible the Tigers hold him in the minors until a clear spot appears in the rotation to keep his innings down after tossing 121 across the minors and majors last season (this is understand that Olson out for the year – he’s still SP #6/#7 at the moment) . You don’t like stashing players in drafts. No, I do not. Melton has all the signs of being a solid arm when he does go every five days, but it’ll likely be without six frames in the majority of them, with more volatility than we’d like. He’s a great pitcher, but without an overwhelming breaking ball, nor a fastball that makes everyone else question why they even try to pitch a baseball, Melton doesn’t carry a MUST DRAFT AND HOLD label. And at the
Quick Take: Melton should be a productive SP when he’s pitching every five days, worthy of your 12-teamers. His four-seamer is great and should have success, with a solid #2 in his slider, a productive cutter, and a developing curve & splitter. However, it’s unclear when he’ll get his proper shot in the Tigers’ rotation, and the upside isn’t as high as former elite prospects, lacking an elite overpowering offering.
Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP)
2025 Stats: 31.1 IP | 7.18 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 19.5 K% | 4.5 BB%
I was super hyped for SGL entering last year, excited to see him get his chance to return to the rotation and display his unique skill set. After all, in 2023 he gave us 99th percentile extension, a 92 mph sinker with proper sink at sub 2″ of vert that he kept low over 70% of the time, and two whiffable secondaries in a slider and changeup. That wasn’t exactly what we saw in his brief 31.1 taste return to the majors, sadly, nor did he impress during his time in the minors. Blegh.
Gipson-Long struggled in a few areas. First, he leaned more on his four-seamer than sinker, which he did a terrible job of locating upstairs – a skill he badly needs for the pitch to take advantage of a flat attack angle, elite extension, and surprise vert at a low velocity – and it was destroyed. In tandem, the sinker lost two inches of drop (still sub 4″!) and failed to get down, returning a 33% loLoc. That ain’t it. He also lost a tick of velocity along the way, and wasn’t able to earn enough strikes with his lovely changeup, either. The slider was the only pitch really working for him, and even that one got punished over the plate at times. It truly wasn’t his season.
Command is known as the last piece to return after TJS and Sawyer’s struggles are rooted in location. While I don’t suggest banking on him to become the man I envisioned this time last season, I won’t be so foolish to classify him as a complete bust and rule out improvement over the off-season and time in the minors this year. I see SGL as the Tigers’ SP #7, though Montero could be used in his place if Detroit wants him to polish a little more before returning to the spotlight. Pay attention to his Triple-A performance early and hopefully we get the man of old again. After all, that extension is elite.
Quick Take: Gipson-Long had a horrible return from TJS last year, and we’re holding our breath, hoping he can regain the feel for his arsenal we saw during his debut in 2023. With elite extension, a propensity for low sinkers, surprise high four-seamers, and dastardly changeups + sliders, the upside is still there if he can locate once again. Give it some time.
Names To Know
Jackson Jobe (RHP)
I’d be surprised if we saw Jobe as a starter in 2026 after he underwent TJS in mid-June last year. Even if he’s healthy enough to return and start, the Tigers would likely leave him Triple-A to stay stretched out for 2027, or have him return in a relief role to ease him back as an extended rehab. Yes, I’d hate that, too. Jobe’s 2025 pre-IL was far from the dominance we expected with his exceptional stuff numbers, and while it doesn’t quite make all the sense why he struggled to find whiffs and allow a ton of hard contact, there are holes in his game. Jobe’s NC Rate was terrible, leading to few strikes on his fastball and worse counts that allowed batters to go fastball hunting. In addition, four-seamers and sliders that did find the zone were generally easy to swap between – if looking fastball and saw a slider, batters didn’t have to change their swing a whole lot to make contact. Jobe failed to land his changeup to LHB as well, and his sinker sometimes did what it was supposed to by getting inside to RHB, but also missed wildly inside and off the plate plenty as well. There’s more to unlock here with his cutter and curveball (that hook has legit two-plane movement and should be thrown more, in my view) to help him turn away from being mostly two-pitch, and I hope he gets the opportunity. As for now, keep your expectations for 2026 as minimal as possible, and hold back on stashing him in your IL spot unless it’s absolutely free.
Keider Montero (RHP)
Montero has a great approach against RHB – a legit 22% SwStr slider with a 70%+ strike rate paired with a sinker he can get inside and induces plenty of outs – and very little to deal with LHB. He’s been used as the Tigers’ favorite “Welp, we need a guy out of nowhere who can give us 4+ innings” arm and expect more of the same this year. I wouldn’t expect him to be a blocker for Melton at any point, and there are going to be a few days you can stream him as the bulk guy with a follower.
Emanuel De Jesus (LHP)
De Jesus received a Non-Roster Invite from the Tigers after spending time in the KBO, where he earned roughly a strikeout per inning and a mid 3s ERA as a starter. He’ll likely transition to the bullpen with a mid-90s heater, changeup, and slider and I wouldn’t consider him in your plans for surprise SPs this season, unless he does something special in camp.
Ty Madden (RHP)
We’ve heard the name for a while and sadly, Madden simply doesn’t do anything special. The 94 mph four-seamer is located upstairs more than half the time, but fails to eclipse a 10% SwStr rate, the slider is decent to RHB, cutter has been effective to LHB, and a splitter is his biggest out pitch, which, isn’t the most reliable (shocking, I know). Throw in roughly six feet of extension and he needs all the precision to squeeze a reliable starter out of this mix.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Andrew Sears (LHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He’s a lower arm-angled southpaw who doesn’t appear to have the biggest stuff around. He hangs around the zone decently well around the low-to-mid 90s and hopefully can form into a SWATCH with an upper-80s changeup, though I’d wait until getting results in Triple-A before grasping a proper understanding of his effectiveness. I personally need to see a little extra from the UConn alum before tabbing him as a name to note.
Jaden Hamm (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
Hamm will likely begin the season in Triple-A, providing a chance to knock on the door of the majors if he performs at his peak throughout the early months. I’m not too optimistic after a questionable 83 innings in Double-A with 32 walks and 76 strikeouts, and his over-the-top delivery doesn’t have the proper zip, and I wonder how effective his curve and slider can be against proper competition. We’ll get Triple-A data this summer and I’m curious what we’ll get.
Jake Miller (LHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
Miller had a phenomenal 2024 with 104 punchouts in just 87.1 frames, and then had a major setback in 2025 with a back injury sandwiched between a handful of starts, leading to just twenty innings on the bump. The time on the IL makes it highly unlikely we see Miller in the upcoming season, though if he picks up where he left off, Miller is a SWATCH poster boy. It’s a low 90s heater with a great slider and changeup, which could pummel lower competition and pave his way toward Detroit by September if everything goes right. Despite the ceiling sitting lower than his peers due to a lack of an overwhelming heater, his stellar control opens the door for a Toby-esque arm when he gets an opportunity.
Kelvis Salcedo (RHP, A, Age 20) – Watch Video
He’s a big fella who demolished the competition in 2025 A-ball, featuring 30%+ strikeout rates with an absurdly low hit rate and good enough control. According to Emily Waldon, Salcedo sported a 99 mph sinker with a legit splitter and slider…which is obviously very good and worthy of your attention. The Tigers already have a logjam in their rotation, but you have to wonder how many bullets the Tigers will be willing to leave in the minors if Salcedo continues to mow down batters with ease in Double-A.
