In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
This year, I’m making these articles free to everyone, with some added benefits for PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
4. Ad-Free Experience
Read these without any ads and without a sidebar. It looks so much better.
So many more additions outside these articles
Live Draft Assistant app (just updated to 2.0!), access to our 1,500+ member Discord, all our apps, and so much more.
Get Two Months of PL Pro FREE!
Use promo code SPBREAKDOWNS26 and get $40 off PL Pro Yearly ($120 value of PL Pro monthly!):
Expected Starters
Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
2025 Stats: 176.2 IP | 5.25 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 19.2 K% | 4.8 BB%
Oh Pfaadt. It was a mess of a season, trying his best to experiment with his arsenal and keep his head above water. The fact of the matter is that he boasts a poor four-seamer and an average sinker, which forces his secondaries to excel further than their grasp. That said, he did make one major improvement in the second half: 22% cutters to LHB. Pfaadt is impeccable at jamming this pitch inside to LHB with minimal damage (often a foul ball or a weak ball in play) for 70%+ strikes, finally introducing a weapon he sorely needed to LHB. That said, he’ll still need to have success with backdoor breakers and a proper changeup to take down LHB, while the sinker/sweeper has to be good enough for RHB. There is a way this can still work, especially with his long leash and ceiling of going all nine frames on his very best days.
Quick Take: Pfaadt is far too much of a risk to roster out of the gate in 12-teamers without a deadly weapon at his disposal. There is room for growth with a new and highly effective cutter to LHB entering the picture in the second half of 2025, which could soften his floor, and allow for a waiver wire pickup if everything clicks early.
Merrill Kelly (RHP)
2025 Stats: 184.0 IP | 3.52 ERA | 1.11 WHIP | 22.3 K% | 6.4 BB%
Ah yes, Merrill. The poster child for the pitcher your dad will consistently pick in drafts as you snicker across the table, favoring a younger, high strikeout rate arm, only to make you look foolish in September as your HIPSTER empties your household’s Aspirin and Kelly cruises to another 180 innings of production. Going back to Arizona is only a positive, ensuring he’s in a comfortable environment to keep doing what he does: Throwing effective changeups to both LHB and RHB and working four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, and breakers to fill in the holes. There’s value knowing you’re getting 90+ pitches from the very first start of the year, and with another double-digit Win season likely on the horizon, you’re unlikely to drop Kelly all season with a decent WHIP and fine ERA, even if his four-seamers allow more hits this time around.
Quick Take: Kelly is a strong pick in the mid-to-late rounds. Beneficial volume is always a winner and Kelly’s ability to work around the zone with multiple pitches, throw strikes, and have a putaway offering to both LHB and RHB should make him an asset for another year.
Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)
2025 Stats: 154.1 IP | 5.02 ERA | 1.54 WHIP | 20.6 K% | 8.6 BB%
It may sound strange to advocate for a pitcher with back-to-back 5.00+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP seasons, but Erod really deserves better. He’s built as a SWATCH with a changeup that – I kid you not – had a +22 hit luck in 2025 despite a 1.5% mistake rate. No, that’s not typical for Eduardo’s slowball, which showed few signs of degradation, including a decent enough 37% ICR that in no way outlines such a flurry of hits for a pitch consistently down-and-gloveside to RHB. That’s all there is to say about the fella – his changeup should perform better in 2026, allowing him to be a streamer in-season when we can be sure the results have normalized. Consider Rodriguez a deep-league sleeper given his recent results.
Quick Take: He’s a 15-team Toby who had horrific fortune last season with his changeup. Expect that to positively regress, allowing for a potential QS arm in deeper formats, and a here-and-there streaming option in standard leagues.
Ryne Nelson (RHP)
2025 Stats: 154.0 IP | 3.39 ERA | 1.07 WHIP | 21.3 K% | 6.6 BB%
I’m still a bit frustrated that Nelson didn’t have a rotation spot out of camp in 2025, though he excelled in the role once he had proper security after his ghastly 7 ER outing in early June, sporting a 2.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22% strikeout rate across 19 starts and 109 frames, including six Quality Starts in his final seven outings of the season. The catalyst is obvious: The highest favored four-seamer by any starting pitcher in the majors, and Nelson has good reason to feature the pitch 62% of the time. Its combination of elite vert (with a lower arm angle than expected) and above-average extension at 95/96 mph allows Nelson to incessantly pound heat in the upper half of the zone, creating the foundational piece every pitcher dreams of.
So what’s the problem? He cannot find a proper complement. Unlike Flanders’ parents, he’s tried everything. He’s tried a cutter, slider, curve, change, and even asked Eno Sarris “Can someone be neither a pronator or a supinator?” In other words, he doesn’t have feel for anything but hurling that heater, and he’s hoping to break that wall to find something to get him over the hump. Don’t be fooled by the great ratios last year, Nelson really needs the help. His massive reduction in hits-per-nine led to a 1.07 WHIP, and we shouldn’t expect those gains to stick with the same approach as last year – batters are going up to the plate expecting four-seamers and are not punished frequently enough to keep them honest. His four-seamer’s putaway rate is beneath what’s expected of its caliber, and a near 50% ICR to RHB gives us a glimpse of how rough this can get if help doesn’t arrive.
It puts me in a tough position. If Nelson finds a proper #2 pitch, he could be Top 25 overnight. If he doesn’t, he’ll likely fall into 4.00+ ERA and 1.25+ WHIP territory. That has me electing to favor other starters who I don’t have to wishcast development.
Quick Take: As much as I believe Nelson’s dominance were he to find a great breaker, changeup, or cutter, it’s more probable he doesn’t find the next gear in 2026. That profiles him as a 20/21% strikeout arm with waiver-wire worthy ratios, not a hold for your 12-teamers.
Zac Gallen (RHP)
2025 Stats: 192.0 IP | 4.83 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 21.5 K% | 8.1 BB%
Gallen is back with Arizona on a one-year deal to bet on himself and I’m kinda tempted to join him. The deathball is still very much a thing to both LHB and RHB, while his four-seamer is arguably the best called strike four-seamer in the majors. That said, it’s still a bit of a liability. The heater has a good amount of vert with cut-action, which harms him against RHB, and could be a weapon to jam LHB, but he instead leans away from the pitch, hoping to establish the tunnel for his changeup and curveball. It didn’t work well last year and I really think Gallen should try to nail the inside edge with the pitch moving forward.
Against RHB, he introduced a sinker midway through the season that was later abandoned and I’m not sure why he didn’t stick with it. Sure, it didn’t have a whole lot of ride and was hit decently hard when hit, but the thing had 1st percentile zone rate and 99th percentile O-Swing. Guys were chasing this thing all day and it earned strikes galore. Yes! This is cool! More of this!
If I were to give the most realistic path toward an improved Gallen, it’s truly for his changeup to find more strikes against LHB, and praying this is the season his slider can eclipse a 60% strike rate to RHB. That’s really it. The four-seamer is likely still going to get a ton of called strikes at the cost of getting hit harder than we like, his curveball will miss bats and propel a 24%+ strikeout rate (there’s no way he’s going under 20% with that hook), and he just needs a little extra push with his changeup and slider to get over the hump. Maybe even refinement of the ole cutter for LHB or the sinker to RHB. I’m down to take a shot and see how it goes, even if 2024 wasn’t so great either with its 1.26 WHIP (all rooted in fewer fastball strikes that led to more walks in both ’24 and ’25). Join me, and let’s be Gallen Gals together.
Quick Take: Yes, Gallen has increased his walks in his last two seasons and now the strikeout rate is the latest column to crumble in the temple of Gallen. There are small areas of improvement that would take Gallen from a waiver wire arm to an SP #3/#4 once again and even if we’re skeptical it’ll happen, he’s in a great spot in Arizona to produce right from the start. You’ll know generally early if this is going to work out, why not take a stab at it?
On The Fringe
Corbin Burnes (RHP)
2025 Stats: 64.1 IP | 2.66 ERA | 1.17 WHIP | 23.8 K% | 9.8 BB%
Burnes underwent TJS in June and we hope he can return by the All-Star break. Think of Burnes like Bradish or Bieber from 2025: Not a whole lot of volume, but a veteran arm who can fall right back into things the moment he gets the green light. It’s possible his elbow was the reason his cutter’s drop was reduced over the last few seasons, too, which could bring back the overall dominance, though the reasonable expectation is helpful ratios with a strikeout per inning. Considering how Eury, Bradish, and Bieber were rarely stashed all season in standard 12-teamers, I don’t feel the need to draft Burnes over other early injured arms.
Quick Take: Burnes is recovering from his June ’25 TJS surgery and isn’t expected back until the All-Star Break at the earliest. The easiest comp is Bieber or Bradish from this past season, and all we can do is hope he can be a producer across six frames when he returns.
Michael Soroka (RHP)
2025 Stats: 89.2 IP | 4.52 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 25.1 K% | 7.7 BB%
I really want a healthy Soroka for multiple full seasons. He’s always been a fascinating starter, capable of making tweaks and comanding his arsenal when he’s able to stay on the bump consistently, and 2025 showed us a legit breaking ball with stellar sinker command to RHB and a successful four-seamer…at times. His velocity dropped at the turn of the second half, moving him to the pen for the Cubs, and it’s possible he gets back to 93+ in spring training to grab the #5 spot. I wouldn’t hold my breath for the possibility, though Soroka could become an early streamer if he’s the #4/5 and faces the Tigers after the opening weekend.
Quick Take: Soroka proved to be a valuable streamer in the first half of 2024 and if he snags regular starts for the Diamondbacks, Soroka should be an option for deeper leagues, if not as a matchup-only arm in 12-teamers when facing few LHB, allowing his curve and sinker to carve RHB.
Yilber Díaz (RHP)
2025 Stats: 3.0 IP | 9.00 ERA | 2.33 WHIP | 6.7 K% | 20.0 BB%
Díaz has an interesting set of breaking balls. The 81 mph slider and 75 mph curveball each come with elite drop to them, but their low velocities make me question their effectiveness. If they were closer to the 94/95+ mph four-seamer (average, if not below average by all accounts) and were reliable strike pitches, it’s possible he could turn into a Stuff McNasty where the fastball sneaks in for called strikes, though the likelihood of this panning out in its current form is incredibly low.
Quick Take: It’s unwise to expect Díaz to become anything worthwhile in any format this year, unless he finds a way to increase the velocity of his breakers and nailing an approach with his mediocre fastballs.
Names To Know
Cristian Mena (RHP)
We’ve barely seen Mena in the majors (just 9.2 IP in two seasons) and I’m not impressed with what he brings to the table. It’s a 94+ mph heater without much going on under the hood, a “curveball” that’s really a gyro slider at 88 mph, and an 87 mph “sweeper” with too much height and not enough sweep. He’ll have to be a different guy in the spring (and force a rotation spot!) if I’m going to give him any attention.
Bryce Jarvis (RHP)
Jarvis may get a look in the rotation (he tossed 5.2 frames in August), though he’s not there yet. His slider is his filthiest offering, but he doesn’t command it well, and his four-seamer is just not good. I can see him working out as sinker/slider over time, with something else instead of the four-seamer leading the way to LHB, including a changeup with a fair amount of movement and velocity differential. There’s just too much to fix here.
Blake Walston (LHP)
He’s recovering from March 2025 TJS. The Diamondbacks will have to be in an incredibly rough state to bring Walston back into the fold when he’s ready after just a few games on the bump in 2024. He’s a SWATCH on his best day, though the kick-change wasn’t consistent during his seven appearances and nothing else excites at all, save for a standard sweeper from a soft-tossing southpaw.
Drey Jameson (RHP)
Jameson underwent TJS early in 2025 and should return at some point this season after displaying 99 mph during his brief fall rehab appearances. That sounds lovely at first, though he’s a sinker/slider arm, not a four-seamer flame-thrower. His sinker has reduced velocity (96 vs 98 of his four-seamer), but with his poor extension, it allows the sinker’s excellent two-plane ride to travel deeper, turning him into a potential groundball stud. Throw in an 85/86 mph slider that had serious bite (akin to a sweeper at -9/10 inches of sweep and -2 inches of drop) and a changeup just under the x-axis (-0.1 vert. That’s what you want from a changeup!), you can see the potential for an innings-eater with more strikeouts than your typical groundballer. But will they let him start? Does he have the command to make it work? And will he actually lean on the sinker instead of the flashy four-seamer? There’s enough here to give him a look if he were to get a shot in the rotation late in the year.
Tommy Henry (LHP)
First of all, two first names. CAN’T TRUST ‘EM. You also can’t quite trust a guy with sub 90 mph who isn’t Rich Hill or peak The Fratty Pirate. He hopes to lead with command of his four-seamer and curve, then go with the typical change/slider split depending on the handedness. It’s so blegh and he’s the kind of guy with a Birthday Party or two across a season.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Kohl Drake (LHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Drake is a 92/93 mph southpaw with a four-seamer and sinker + a slider he adores, and was shut down at the end of August with a shoulder injury. Not quite a SWATCH yet, but that could develop by next year, health permitting. He struggled in his first three games in Triple-A before featuring pristine BSB ability for a dominant seven strikeout performance in fewer than five frames, showcasing the ceiling if he can be trusted to locate his arsenal. I’m not that interested for now, and if the Sneks elect to choose Drake to fill a rotation spot, I’m hoping for more velocity, a better changeup, or less reliance on fastballs.
Verdict: Someone to know about when he gets the call, but not game-changing. Wait and see.
Yu-Min Lin (LHP, AAA, Age 22) – Watch Video
The ideal is a “Swatch”, but he’s not close at the moment. His 90-92 mph heater was demolished plenty this season, while the changeup is not the elite pitch featured by many of his peers. The sweeper and curve can only do so much, especially if he doesn’t have the command necessary to survive in the low 90s.
Verdict: He’s still young and if he’s able to get his locations down with a proper slowball, it’s possible there’s more to tap into. It’s unwise to expect Lin to become a productive fantasy arm.
Daniel Eagen (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
There’s little information out there on Eagen, who was drafted in the third round of 2024’s draft and quickly moved from High-A to Double-A this season. He’s a tall right-hander with an over-the-top delivery that helps him create big drop on a low 80s curve, and through the video I saw, it looks as though he’s added a slider (and maybe a changeup for LHB?) to make a full arsenal. There was a legit stretch of nearly 30 strikeouts in three starts in August as he looked like a dude. I’m going to hold my hype until we get reports on his extension, velocity, movement, and HAVAA of the heater, but just watch the video above. He could shoot up the ranks quickly with Arizona’s lack of SP depth. Know the name in the spring.
Verdict: Could be a name out of nowhere next year. Monitor him in the spring (hopefully we get data!) and may be worth the spec-add when he gets the call.
Mitch Bratt (LHP, AA, 22) – Watch Video
He’s a low 90s southpaw with a tight changeup (SWATCH!), and a cutter + slider that work off his lower arm-slot. I don’t have a whole lot more than that, but he does appear to be your standard Toby type when he does arrive, which could be soon with a likely promotion to Triple-A early next season. Not a top-end guy, but we’ve seen arms like him work even for 12-teamers in-season (Ian Seymour, Parker Messick, etc.).
Verdict: He’s like Kohl Drake at a younger age, with a little more going on in his arsenal, aiming to be a discount SWATCH. Not a guy to circle for now.
