Updated 1/22 to include Freddy Peralta & Tobias Myers.
In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I have elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
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With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
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Expected Starters
Freddy Peralta (RHP)
2025 Stats: 176.2 IP | 2.70 ERA | 1.08 WHIP | 28.2 K% | 9.1 BB%
Peralta had himself a brilliant 2025, boasting the lowest ERA of his career and recording a WHIP under 1.10 for just the second time across eight seasons in the bigs. There was a fair amount of HOTEL influence with an 85%+ LOB rate and a .256 BABIP that did the heavy lifting (6.3 hit-per-nine is just wild), though there were some small tweaks that could be here to stay.
Peralta shifted on the rubber from first base toward third base, steering his pitches more armside than ever before. It didn’t raise his zone or strike rates, and his four-seamer dropped to just a 10% SwStr rate to LHB, but he is getting more cut on the heater now, and it may have influenced his decision to lean into his changeup and curveball more than the slider. The hook became his favorite putaway offering to both LHB and RHB, while the changeup had increased usage to RHB and befuddled many batters. If only he could just get them over the plate more often and Peralta would be the reliable stud we’ve always wanted him to be.
That four-seamer’s elite HAVAA with unexpected vert and horizontal movement at 94/95 mph is absolutely legit, even if his extension has fallen from elite to above-average over the years. The new staff in New York are likely to tinker and aide Peralta during the season to ensure he doesn’t show too much of Professor Chaos, which makes the move away from pitcher friendly Miller Park a lot more digestible (yes, it promotes strikeouts y’all! And I refuse to call it anything but Miller Park). For a guy known as a Cherry Bomb across his career, he’s suddenly looking like one of the more stable options out there as an SP #2. Would you look at that.
Quick Take: Peralta had a fortunate 2025 with a silly hit rate and 85%+ LOB rate that mask a pitcher who made some tweaks and is generally the same guy he’s always been – terrible at throwing inside the zone, but finds strikeouts and has a strong foundational fastball. It’s possible the gains in ICR, shift on the mound, and larger emphasis on his changeup and curve catalyzed weaker contact, though their impacts shouldn’t be this massive in 2026. After three straight 30 start seasons, Peralta looks to be a solid #2 once again.
Nolan McLean (RHP)
2025 Stats: 48.0 IP | 2.06 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 30.3 K% | 8.5 BB%
Some see McLean as the next Logan Webb, and there’s part of me that believes it, simply because his sinker to RHB is fantastic. It’s a 96 mph pitch he lands down-and-in that acts as a true sinker at 1″ of vert. That’s the good stuff. The reason I don’t believe McLean is the next Webb is everything else – the sweeper and curveball have solid movement, but he doesn’t locate them effectively (leading to a sub 10% SwStr on the sweeper to RHB?!), the changeup feel is not there yet to LHB, and his four-seamer should only be saved as a surprise two-strike pitch upstairs, not a foundational offering.
In short, McLean has the profile of a sinker/sweeper arm with a low arm angle and the toolset to effectively silence RHB. But what is his plan to LHB? Y’all know the correct answer if you’ve read me enough, and I actually believe it could be what we see in 2026: A cutter. McLean featured the 91 mph pitch 13% to LHB last season and I don’t see why it wouldn’t become more of a focus in 2026 given the failures of his four-seamer and sinker to LHB.
The other question is control. McLean’s sub 9% walk rate would be higher if he didn’t strike out 30% of the batters he faced, or allow an unsustainable 6.4 hits-per-nine. His strike rates suggest more walks are coming for the recently converted pitcher-from-shortstop and given his limited lifetime experience on the bump, it should be no shock that control is an issue.
All of that said, McLean’s foundation of a legit drop sinker at 96 mph with excellent movement on his sweeper and curve + intent to go up with four-seamers for punchouts + developing change and cutter speaks to a pitcher who can be that workhorse. 2026 may feature McLean exhibiting true AGA talent as he takes a step forward, and punishing the doubters who saw his eight-game sample and labeled him as a fluke of data.
I’m not one of those doubters, though I can’t sit here and tell you McLean will make the right tweaks to his mix while improving his control and feel of his arsenal. At the very least, McLean should flirt with six innings with beneficial production consistently across 2026. That’s fine with me.
Quick Take: There’s a lot of hype around McLean after a 30% strikeout rate and glistening ratios in his brief eight-game showcase to end 2025. Without an overpowering four-seamer, coupled with an ineffective approach to LHB, and questions about his arsenal feel, I worry there is a lower floor than the results outline. The sinker and breakers + the possibility of a cutter affinity is enough for me to comfortably take McLean in drafts, just not inside the Top 30 SP.
Kodai Senga (RHP)
2025 Stats: 113.1 IP | 3.02 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 22.6 K% | 11.4 BB%
Senga was fantastic in 2023, when he was able to mask his 95/96 mph four-seamer over the plate with a cutter that returned 70%+ strikes and a low 32% ICR, and despite featuring similar ICR marks on the cutter, it wasn’t thrown as often, nor was Senga able to fan batters with the pitch. His first half of 2025 produced for fantasy managers, though it was precarious compared to his stellar rookie campaign, and I hope he can return to form with the cutter while regaining a tick of velocity.
After a hamstring strain, Senga wasn’t able to find a rhythm in the second half of last season and I’m willing to hand wave those outings more than usual. Expect him to be more like the April/May version than September.
Senga’s famous “Ghost Fork” splitter will ensure a strikeout rate above 20%, and hopefully the four-seamer and cutter can be a proper tandem to allow him to push 25% for another season. Command will be the biggest question as I don’t anticipate the velocity to return to 95/96 mph territory, and he’ll need to reduce his four-seamer usage with more cutters, sinkers, sliders, and curveballs to navigate batters if he hopes to go six strong often.
Quick Take: Senga is on the edge of Toby and Holly. I question if he can improve his walk rate while reducing his four-seamer usage, which makes him a WHIP liability on the bump, though I don’t expect his ERA to soar into 4.00+ territory. He’s a possible HIPSTER, though I’d grab him as a late flier, hoping he finds health and rhythm.
Clay Holmes (RHP)
2025 Stats: 165.2 IP | 3.53 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 18.2 K% | 9.3 BB%
Ah yes, The Adobe. He’s a unique starter who is able to throw sinkers for weak contact to both LHB and RHB, acting as a proper sinker that he targets down-and-gloveside at all times, but often misses over the plate. Doesn’t matter, he still has 30-35% ICR marks with it, catalyzing Holmes’ overall 60% groundball rate. The other pitches aren’t quite helping enough, though.
For LHB, it’s a kick-changeup he matches with the sinker down-and-away, but it’s most effective in two-strike counts, while the pitch is not a reliable strike offering to climb back into counts or end at-bats early. His slider and cutter aim to be those pitches, but neither earns enough strikes or evades demolition effectively enough to get me excited. At least he’s trying to make the cutter up-and-in work.
One setback as a starter was the effectiveness of Holmes’ sweeper. It flirted with a 20% SwStr rate in 2024, but fell to a feeble 11% clip to RHB in 2025, failing to be the putaway pitch Holmes needs badly. The harder and safer slider has tried to fill the gap away and off the plate, though neither is truly the #2 pitch Holmes needs when his sinker isn’t doing everything he wants it to.
With all groundball-sinker focused arms, WHIP is expected to be elevated as groundballs return higher BABIPs than flyballs. In concert with a lack of strike-earning secondaries that return higher walk rates, his WHIP should balloon once again to 1.25+, even without a 10% walk rate or sitting under a hit per inning. Those extra baserunners and fewer strikes equate to a shocking eight quality starts this past year, racking up pitch counts quickly and preventing a long outing.
He’s made for deeper leagues who are chasing a potential sub 4.00 ERA season with double-digit Wins, though it doesn’t seem worth it unless Holmes figures out his secondaries to putaway batters efficiently and find better counts.
Quick Take: Holmes’ sinker-first approach induces more hits than his contemporaries, while his unreliable secondaries inflate his walk rate. The combination snowballs into a slew of baserunners and deeper counts, capping Holmes’ ceiling as he’s usually kicked out before the end of the sixth. Until he finds more whiffs and returns consistent strikes, I’d look elsewhere.
On The Fringe
David Peterson (LHP)
2025 Stats: 168.2 IP | 4.22 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 20.7 K% | 9.0 BB%
He’s a 15-teamer HIPSTER like Dean Kremer, though I can see how he breaks those chains and because a reliable Holly. The problem? It would require consistent command, which Peterson simply doesn’t have. He has SWATCH potential with four-seamers up, sinkers away to RHB (lots of grounders, which adds to the volatility), and a changeup that can be a major factor to RHB, but it returned a poor 13% SwStr rate last season as he failed to spot it as desired. There’s also a whiffable slider to RHB, which struck out many batters…and also allowed a whole lot of damage when he hung it over the plate. HIPSTER.
He’s generally got the situation on lockdown against LHB, with some questionable luck this past year on his sinker/slider approach. The sinker induced an elite 66% STR-ICR (he throws strikes and induces weak contact!), while the slider turned a 27% SwStr rate…and 40% ICR. Those are mistakes, y’all.
The final point of fun is his 94th percentile extension that amplifies each of his offerings when he properly spots them. He’s your dropped steak – do you dare risk the five-second rule or move on to something else? Can you really do that to steak? With WHIP marks routinely at 1.30 and higher, you can’t lean on Peterson for a full season, but as a streamer? Sure, he’s capable. At least he has job security and a long leash, which could mean this is the year it all comes together. Probably not.
Quick Take: Peterson has a whiffable slider, a sinker that earns grounders, and a four-seamer + changeup that can each be a menace when located, but hot dang is he inconsistent with his command. the volume is there with 23-25% strikeout upside, but the WHIP anchor and volatility is too much to endure outside of streaming chance in 12-teamers.
Sean Manaea (LHP)
2025 Stats: 60.2 IP | 5.64 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 28.5 K% | 4.6 BB%
What are we going to get from Manaea? He’s lost a tick of velocity in each of the last two seasons and after missing the start of 2025, he was unable to replicate the magic of his lower arm angled 2024 second half. The changeup was shelved for four-seamers and sweepers, which simply were not getting the job done enough, especially when facing batters a third time. It created short outings (not a single game of six full frames!), eventually acting a piggy-back with The Adobe by the end of the season, and it doesn’t seem worth it out of the gate with his attachment to a horrific floor.
Keep an eye on the southpaw slinger, though. I’m absolutely fine picking him up if he’s able to showcase the horizontal movement of 2024 again (lost three inches of horizontal!) while locating his fastballs up and secondaries down. My expectations are low, and I don’t suggest drafting him with an expectation for a rebound, even if he didn’t have a healthy off-season last year.
Quick Take: Manaea gave us a beautiful second half of 2024, but the magic wasn’t there when he finally appeared in 2025 after a long injury stint. The hope is for his velocity and movement to return on the fastballs, while the feel for his changeup to return as a legit out pitch to RHB. It remains to be seen and a repetition of his 2025 skill set will not cut it.
Jonah Tong (RHP)
2025 Stats: 18.2 IP | 7.71 ERA | 1.77 WHIP | 25.3 K% | 10.3 BB%
Tong needs more and I’m out until something changes. His four-seamer is an exciting offering with 95+ mph velocity, solid extension, great 19″ of vert and a flat 1.5 HAVAA, but he doesn’t command it incredibly well, nor does he have a dependable companion to keep batters from hunting the pitch.
Wait, doesn’t he have a sick Vulcan-changeup? He sure does and it is very dope…when he actually executes it. For those unaware, a Vulcan change is a splitter that is between your middle and ring fingers, not index and middle fingers of a traditional splitter. Yes, it is very hard to replicate the feel of it from pitch-to-pitch. No, I don’t expect Tong to be able to throw it for a 60%+ strike rate in 2026, especially after we just saw him feature a terrible SwStr on the pitch and fail miserably at being the shield for his four-seamer. It’s not what he needs.
A third offering, a curveball, is in the mix with 97th percentile vertical drop. That sounds great on paper for Tong’s curveball, but in actuality, it hurts him in two ways: 1) The larger the curveball, the higher the likelihood for hitters to keep the bat on their shoulders, which is a negative when 2) The larger the curveball, the harder it is to command inside the zone. Remember Lucas Giolito’s highly touted curveball when he was drafted? Wait, yeah. What happened to it? Are you not reading what I just wrote? Uhhh. HE COULDN’T GET STRIKES WITH IT. Yeesh. Anyway, I don’t expect this to be Tong’s savior.
That leaves a new pitch and hopefully it’s a cutter. Yes, I know, I’m obsessed with them, but it makes sense in the way that Glasnow added a slider (like a cutter) to bridge his four-seamer and curveball (think Tong’s heater and Vulcan). If Tong can add that to the mix to get strikes and keep batters off the four-seamer, while allowing him to continue focusing on low Vulcans in two-strike counts, that could work.
It remains to be seen and I don’t have high hopes given Tong’s questionable command inside the zone. Without a spot in the rotation out of camp, I hope we see the development of a cutter/slider in Triple-A, allowing me to get hyped and spec-add Tong whenever he gets his next chance.
Quick Take: Tong isn’t the arm you draft. He’s the arm you monitor in Triple-A and hope he can add a cutter or slider to find the strikes his curve and Vulcan changeup can’t provide for his four-seamer. If he can’t, I have little faith in his command to make this current package work.
Tobias Myers (RHP)
2025 Stats: 50.2 IP | 3.55 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 17.3 K% | 6.8 BB%
Included in the Peralta deal was Mr. Myers, a fella with an extreme over-the-top delivery, but oddly enough, an above-average HAVAA due to his dip-and-dive mechanics at six feet tall. It makes me wonder if that four-seamer’s 18″+ inches of vert can do more than miss under 8% of batts as it did last year, or if the steep attack angle ruins the effect, even with the good attack angle. That heater has been the foundation and it needs a bit of improvement somewhere if Myers is to be a regular six-inning arm for the Mets. Maybe it’s as simple as locating upstairs more efficiently, but in all likelihood, Myers needs more than 92/93 mph velocity.
Finding the right secondaries has been a challenge, too. His cutter and slider aren’t the liveliest of breakers (he’s also missing the big curve traditionally seen in pitchers with his delivery) and while they can land for strikes, they aren’t devastating.
No, the actual pitch I’m fascinated by is in his splitter. Wait, you’re interested in a splitter?! I know, but I don’t believe this is a traditional splitty. In fact, I think it’s the same pitch I threw in college – a foshball. The idea is simple: Take a two-seamer grip and move your two fingers up the ball to go halfway toward a split. The effect is less drop than a splitter as the spin isn’t dramatically cut from the delivery, and the gain is the ability to locate it in the zone more consistently. That’s exactly what Myers found in 2025, with the pitch returning a 52% zone rate and 72% strike rate with a 23% SwStr rate across a quarter of pitches thrown to LHB. It even had success 10% of the time to RHB. On paper, this looks like Myers could have success going 1-2 fastball/”Splitty, mixing in the slider and cutter as strike pitches in between. Yes, to both LHB and RHB. Without a great feel for spin, it seems like the best option.
This is all to say that Myers will be utilized as a starter for the Mets and not confined to the pen as we saw in Milwaukee for a large portion of last season. With Sproat leaving to Milwaukee, Myers provides the depth this rotation needs and expect him to be in Triple-A and the first arm up when a slot opens up. I wonder if he’ll embrace the outlined approach and if he is, there’s some hope. Sadly, his highly suspect fastball lowers his ceiling to a point where he needs to prove himself before we extend our hand.
Quick Take: Myers is likely getting starts for the Mets this season at some point, with too much of a logjam to expect it out of camp. With questionable breakers and a four-seamer that needs to take a step forward, I’m hoping the new “splitter” gets more love against both LHB and RHB, while Myers can find a way to make his four-seamer above-average. That’s the path toward 12-teamer worthy, once he has his opportunity.
Christian Scott (RHP)
2024 Stats: 47.1 IP | 4.56 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 19.8 K% | 6.1 BB%
Scott sat out all of 2025 recovering from TJS and I’m excited to see if he picks up where he left off. The four-seamer is flat with seven feet of extension at 94/95 mph, which can work against LHB and RHB, while the sweeper is his signature offering that should make RHB spin in the box constantly. Against LHB, his slider cuts plenty of the sweeper movement and sits on the inside edge, while a splitter appears that Scott too often gets on the side of, pushing it outside for an easy take.
The four-seamer/breakers combo is a solid one and with an improved splitter or changeup, or even the slider adding velo to be more like a cutter, Scott could form into a quality arm capable of a 25%+ strikeout rate while flirting with five frames on a given night. However, if he struggles to eclipse 94 mph and fails to land the fastball upstairs frequently, Scott’s foundation will crumble, making him a HIPSTER more than anything. Let’s see what we get and take it from there, which will likely be a little bit given how long Scott has been away from the mound. Here’s to hoping he soars in a callup this summer.
Quick Take: Scott will need some time in Triple-A before making his next appearance in the majors after missing all of 2025 with TJS. If he gets the call this summer, ensure he’s sitting above 94 mph in Triple-A with good feel for elevation on his four-seamer, while the sweeper is whiffing RHB, and another offering can be relied upon for LHB.
Names To Know
Justin Hagenman (RHP)
Hagenman acted as a long reliever last season and I wouldn’t hold my breath for more. His 93 mph sinker is as pedestrian as it gets, the slider returned whiffs to RHB without thrilling movement, the changeup returned a sub 5% SwStr to LHB, and his 90 mph cutter is doing its best to help Justin find the dugout. That cutter should continue to be favored well over 30% of the time and maybe there are a couple fun starts with cutters and sliders galore + sinkers doing enough inside to give 5/6 innings of intrigue. That’s the best I’ve got.
Tylor Megill (RHP)
The fella underwent TJS in late September this year, marking him firmly out for the 2026 season. Oh how I hope we see Tylord return in 2027 and spot 96+ mph four-seamers upstairs with sliders and changeups underneath with proper command. HOW I WISH.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Jonathan Pintaro (RHP, MLB/AAA, Age 28) – Watch Video
Ignore the cup of coffee MLB debut from this past year. Pintaro is an arm you should know. His biggest strength is a super flat 1.6 HAVAA four-seamer at 95+ mph (sat 96/97 mph mostly in Triple-A last year, then dropped by the end), paired with a cutter and sweeper, plus a sinker he experimented with at the end of the season with 16″ of horizontal and just 1″ of vert (elite sink!). If he’s able to spot that four-seamer up often and work in the rest effectively, Pintaro could be an arm who batters struggle to handle, though it’s a big IF as Pintaro has struggled to feature an above-average hiLoc on his four-seamer, nor was he able to locate the sinker on the inside edge consistently. It’s the biggest blemish and at age 28, it may be too much to ask.
Jack Wenninger (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
We have another four-seamer/splitter arm in Wenninger, who has a phenomenal feel for the pitch. There is a sweeper, cutter, and curve now in the mix and likely will expand their usage in time, but the splitter is likely the pitch Wenninger will lean on for his push to the majors. Unfortunately, it doesn’t come with an overwhelming four-seamer in the low 90s and questionable movement, but that could change by the time he arrives in Triple-A. I generally avoid splitter-focused arms given the pitch’s volatility, but if there’s more to Wenninger and that splitter is one piece of a deep and solid toolset, then I’m thrilled.
Jonathan Santucci (LHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He’s a southpaw who has dominated thus far, earning a 63/18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just fifty frames on Double-A. The low-to-mid 90s fastball does well upstairs and looks like a SWATCH with a little extra giddy-up, as he has both a traditional two-plane LHP slider, and an upper 80s changeup that isn’t quite at the level of the great southpaw changeups. Keep an eye on this one.
Will Watson (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He throws a 94+ four-seamer and sinker, each with good movement, paired with a wide array of cutters, sliders, and changeups. I’m curious how the whole arsenal fits together over time and with the Mets development on his side, Watson may appear to be a command pitcher with an effective toolset at 95 mph by the time we get Triple-A data.
