In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Gavin Williams (RHP)
2025 Stats: 167.2 IP | 3.06 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 24.6 K% | 11.8 BB%
I can’t draft Gavin. I know all of his potential, positive and negative, and those who tell you they know what he’ll look like in 2026 are insincere. The fella had a journey of a season, experimenting with cutters, sweepers, sinkers, curveballs, and shifting his four-seamer usage, all the while oscillating his extension from 6.5 to 7.1+ feet start-to-start, fighting constantly to find a rhythm and routine he can hang his hat on. It was maddening.
The ideal version of Gavin comes with 7+ extension for his 96/97 mph four-seamers, living up in the zone, paired with cutters landing underneath for strikes, and sweepers + curveballs for whiffs. LHB, RHB, doesn’t matter, just make that happen. I don’t love his sinker, even if it added more strikes. The fastball variation carries deadzone movement without any precision, and I worry it will get pummeled if it becomes a regular patron of his establishment.
The spectrum of outcomes is incredibly wide for 2026. Gavin has 180+ IP ability with high pitch counts as the workhorse of the staff, rooted in a four-seamer that can take over games. He also cannot be trusted to carry 60%+ strike rates across his secondaries (nor a 70% strike rate on his fastball), opening the door for many nights of inefficiency and removal before completing the sixth. It gives me no pleasure to slam my giant red HIPSTER stamp across his forehead.
Quick Take: We know the potential of Williams. His four-seamer sits 96/97 mph as a great foundation when paired with cutters and breakers that keep him ahead in counts. When his extension is consistently around 7″ and strikes are easy to find, Gavin looks like a stud. Sadly, he’s displayed little ability to replicate, creating too much uncertainty for me to circle his name in drafts.
Tanner Bibee (RHP)
2025 Stats: 182.1 IP | 4.24 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 21.3 K% | 7.1 BB%
I consider Bibee my biggest bust of 2025. I considered him one of the better SPs to grab, providing safe ratios with a large workload and 180+ strikeouts with double-digit Wins. It’s my favorite SP mold to go for as your SP #2/#3 in drafts, providing a bedding for pickups over the season to fertilize a bountiful harvest. Or something like that. And oddly enough, I was anti-Bibee for the previous two seasons before conceding that his secondaries were consistent enough and reliable throughout a season.
Welp, I was wrong. The cutter was worse (until the last four games of the year…?), his old slider became a sweeper that he couldn’t get the feel for against RHB, and the four-seamer is still bad. The command across his arsenal is still suspect. I don’t know what to believe.
I want to tell you he’s a great upside pick to snag at a time in your draft where you’re comfortable swapping out picks with intriguing waiver wire options. I also want to preach caution that Bibee could easily replicate what he was last year – an arm we all held onto for too long, realizing in July that we really should have dropped him ages ago.
What’s even more frustrating is how Bibee has never really made sense to me. His heaters are not good. His cutter and changeup get whiffs (well, the cutter and slider used to get more), though they’ve never come with stellar command. It makes in-season management of Bibee a bit too hard for me to personally deal with, and considering his name value + the string of four starts at the end of the season that is sure to raise his ADP more than the season as a whole should, I’m unlikely to have Bibee on my teams. But hey, we could look back in a few years and wonder how Bibee had such a terrible 2025. You do you.
Quick Take: We saw Bibee lose feel for his cutter and breaker, while the fastball isn’t getting any better. I question if his new sinker can have the same success, and if what we just saw was more of Bibee’s true skill. It can go either way in 2026 and I’m worried about getting hooked early and not cutting bait soon enough as the ratios pull teams down.
Slade Cecconi (RHP)
2025 Stats: 132.0 IP | 4.30 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 20.0 K% | 5.9 BB%
Nah. Keep banging on my door Slade Brigade, you know this ain’t it. Slade’s four-seamer is rough, to say the least. It allowed over 50% ICR to both LHB and RHB last season, and while I like that he elected to pull down its usage to split time with a sinker to RHB, I’m not a major fan of the new offering, especially with his lack of enthusiasm to get the thing inside to RHB.
Slade was a pickup for some once he claimed a rotation spot in early May, twirling 55 frames of a 3.44 ERA and 24% strikeout rate in ten starts, though it came with an 85% LOB rate and 1.27 WHIP that made it awfully clear it wasn’t going to last. Those strikeouts were a product of his curveball boasting a 30% putaway rate to LHB, and a near 20% SwStr on his new slider, both of which have a chance to keep Slade around 22% strikeout rate for the season if at their respective peaks. Still, even with that hope, his fastballs are just so dang hittable. I’m in shock his four-seamer held a .261 BABIP to LHB last year (yes, despite a 55% ICR and average flyball and groundball rate), and that surely isn’t going to stick for 2026. I can’t encourage this.
Quick Take: Cecconi had some moments last season where his breakers did work and his fastballs weren’t clobbered. Unless he’s able to squeeze more out of his slider and curve to RHB/LHB, respectively, Slade is an arm reserved for AL-Only leagues.
On The Fringe
Logan Allen (LHP)
2025 Stats: 156.2 IP | 4.25 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 18.0 K% | 9.2 BB%
It’s hard for me to endorse a southpaw with a 90/91 mph four-seamer who doesn’t have a stellar changeup, or really any secondary to RHB. Allen’s slowball is an odd one, gaining 10 inches of horizontal fade in 2025 while continuing to carry 1st percentile spin under 1,000 RPM. That suggest split of some kind, and would explain the volatility that returned under a 10% SwStr to RHB last year. Not great.
There’s more peculiarity in Allen’s arsenal, too. His approach to LHB is your standard sinker inside with sweepers away and surprise four-seamers up. However, Allen’s sinker has poor ride inside, while the four-seamer held a whopping 18% SwStr and 27% putaway rate. Sure, it got crushed when contact was made at over 50% ICR, but that’s kinda wild.
The sweeper isn’t as reliable as you’d think, either. Its sub 55% strike rate to LHB leaves plenty to be desired and suggests Allen will continue to carry sub 20% strikeout rates. There just isn’t enough here to get excited, though he’s capable of having nights where his flat 1.3 HAVAA four-seamer can do enough to support the peaks of his secondaries. The Guardians may give him the inside lane of his SWATCH peers given his track record of 20+ starts across the last three seasons, though I have him third in quality between him, Cantillo, and Messick.
Quick Take: Allen isn’t the sneaky southpaw you’re looking for. Any value you’ll find here is in volume, with a decent shot of locking a rotation spot out of camp and a generally loose pitch count. However, don’t expect his 1.40 WHIP to drop significantly with a questionable changeup and inability to consistently throw strikes with his sweeper.
Joey Cantillo (LHP)
2025 Stats: 95.1 IP | 3.21 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 26.9 K% | 10.5 BB%
Let me provide some quick background on Cantillo. He gave us a taste of excellence in September 2024 with four stellar starts after five games of getting his feet wet in the majors, then had to wait until the second half of 2025 to return to the rotation, where he turned in a 2.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate across ten starts. Hot dang, that has to get a whole lot of people hyped and yet, I’m more indecisive on Cantillo than I thought I would be.
He’s a SWATCH in the purest sense – his changeup is everything with a 28% SwStr rate to RHB along that blissful ten start run. It’s a great offering, especially paired with 99th percentile extension. It doesn’t have absurd drop or fade, but its 79 mph velocity is 13 ticks lower than his 91/92 mph four-seamer and is generally well spotted down-and-away. However, it’s not a good fastball. His high attack angle and minimal movement created incessant hard contact off the pitch and a .228 BABIP with 44% grounders is simply not something destined to return.
I’m intrigued by his favorite breaker – a curveball with –21 inches of drop, 99th percentile among all curveballs. Normally I’d tell you this is destined to be a low strike offering and inevitably shelved, but Cantillo has rare feel for the massive hook, returning 60%+ strike rates with it against both LHB and RHB in 2025, and a 67% strike rate to RHB in 2024. It isn’t the greatest commanded pitch, but a near 50% zone rate consistently at that break is a clear indication of feel. That’s cool.
What’s not cool is his attack to LHB. We traditionally see two weapons lefty-on-lefty: A sinker inside and a slider down-and-away. Cantillo has neither. There is no sinker (difficult at his near 55 degree arm angle) and his slider lacks drop, making it sit up in the zone more than he’d like, without a ton of bend to glide away from bats. With a sub 60% strike rate and 14% SwStr rate in 2025 to LHB, it forces Cantillo to lean on his changeup more than expected, which was still helpful, but not a devastating offering it needs to be in order to keep batters off the four-seamer.
Can Cantillo figure out the slider (or a sinker) to LHB? Or maybe he can rely upon the curveball and changeup to do the work and reduce his four-seamer to 35% usage from its flirtation with 50%. And what happens when negative regression comes for his fastball against RHB? Will he be able to get the strikes he needs with the breaker and changeup?
It’s a bit unclear at the moment, but I’d certainly give it a spin if Cantillo gets a proper opportunity inside the rotation. That changeup is destined to destroy RHB and with his elite extension, a cutter or sinker – even at poor movement profiles – could be easy additions to keep batters off his four-seamer. We may have to wait until May for him to get his next chance, though. Be ready when he does.
Quick Take: I’m concerned about Cantillo’s lack of other options to pair with his four-seamer and set up the devastating changeup. His curveball is better than expected, with absurd drop and a knack for keeping it inside the zone, while the slider leaves a lot to be desired against LHB. If Cantillo can add a sinker or cutter to prevent fastball-hunting, he could become a legit SWATCH once he gets a firm hold on a rotation spot.
Parker Messick (LHP)
2025 Stats: 39.2 IP | 2.72 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 23.0 K% | 3.6 BB%
I’m a believer in Messick and it’s simple, really. He’s a command artist. His four-seamer and changeup separation to RHB is the dream of every SWATCH, the slider sits away to LHB with four-seamers nailing the high corner above them and sinkers jamming batters inside…it’s all just done right.
The changeup is sure to return a near 20% SwStr to RHB and I wonder if there’s more he’ll add to the attack in 2026 given the four-seamer’s questionable attributes. Maybe the curveball is enough at 15% usage to steal the strikes he needs, or maybe he can find a cutter. Wouldn’t that be swell.
There isn’t a whole lot more to discuss with Messick. He may be the odd one out come April with the least experience on his resume, but I prefer him more than Allen and Cantillo, simply because the fella knows how to spot his pitches consistently. As a SWATCH, it’s incredibly important and as he gets his feet under him in the majors, there’s more room to tinker here, add there, and produce consistently for a team that wants him to go 90+ pitches a night. Let’s hope he forces the Guardians to put him in the rotation at the end of March.
Quick Take: Messick’s strikezone plots are beautiful: Four-seamers and changeups are evenly split high-and-low against RHB, sliders and sinkers stay to their sides against LHB, and curves + surprise fastballs know their roles. That command as a SWATCH has me excited for Messick to form into a potential Holly over time, acting as a solid Toby once he has runway in the Guardians’ rotation.
Names To Know
Doug Nikhazy (LHP)
Is it wrong that I kinda like Nikhazy? He has the SWATCH template at 90/91 mph with near seven feet of extension and a decent slider, but his brief moment in the majors was so far from pretty, missing the precision of his slow arsenal to make it all work. He’s on the 40-man, which may mean he gets another shot or two this season to rectify the memories of 2025, and it’s a clear wait-and-see.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Daniel Espino (RHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Is this the year we finally see Espino in the majors? He profiles as an elite arm who has dealt with injury after injury, but the Guardians still have him on their 40-man and if he’s looking healthy early, the Guardians may consider a quick promotion to bank as many bullets as Espino has left in his arm. He throws 97+ mph with a legit mid-to-upper 80s cutter/slider and who knows how the Guardians will play this. If he gets the call, just add him.
Austin Peterson (RHP, AAA, Age 26) – Watch Video
Lengthy with nearly seven feet of extension, Peterson likes to go upstairs with his ~16″ vert four-seamer that clocks in under 93 mph, with sweepers at 80 mph and a slider/cutter at 87 mph. The pair leads the way in his approach (with an upper 70s two-plane curve helping here and there), staying away from RHB with the sweeper and using more cutter/curve to LHB. He’s a Cleveland pitcher, alright, and his best attribute is throwing strikes with his arsenal consistently. I’m not super jazzed about those breakers at their velocities, and with the questionable heaters, I’m not seeing enough to circle him as a legit upside arm.
Will Dion (LHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
Dion is a southpaw with an extreme arm angle that creates 18-19″ of vert, but its fastball fights to stay above 90 mph and a six feet (or shorter!) extension grants even more time for batters to attack it. He does a solid job of elevating it and can turn into a SWATCH with a good fading changeup in the low 80s, and his pair of breakers – a relatively hard slider that can go inside to RHB and a 12-6 curve at 81/82 mph that can be deadly to LHB – help round out the approach. If that slowball can ruin RHB and his fastball isn’t the meatiest of meatballs, there is potential for Dion to become a surprise streamer arm despite the velocity.
Yorman Gómez (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
He’s on the 40-man and is a two-pitch arm with a mid-90s fastball and a variety of breakers, though the slider is the star. There’s some reliever risk as Gomez fails with a changeup and it’s questionable how great his four-seamer is. It makes the most sense for the Guardians to call upon Gomez when in need of relief help during the season, not as their next starting arm.
Josh Hartle (LHP, AA, Age 22) – Watch Video
The slinging southpaw Hartle found his feel in the middle of 2025 in Single-A and made the jump to Akron for a pair of outings before season’s end, displaying a low-90s heater, bendy breaker, and a developing changeup. SWATCH is the goal here and with four games of seven strikeouts or more in his final ten starts, the arsenal may be falling into place.
Khal Stephen (RHP, AA, Age 23) – Watch Video
The prize of the Shane Bieber deal, Stephen has a smooth delivery and works in the mid-90s with a tight breaker and changeup. His stellar 110-to-20 strikeout to walk rate across 103 minor league innings (mostly Single A) is a fantastic display of his control and ability to execute his arsenal. His 93 mph four-seamer comes with nearly seven feet of extension and 19″ of vert without a low HAVAA, which has me all kinds of interested, especially if he can keep it upstairs and potentially add a little extra velocity. His slider is 83/84 mph with major separation from the four-seamer, though I slightly prefer the 86/87 mph cutter he rarely threw in the first month of the 2025 season. Those breakers are reserved for RHB, while the changeup with nearly 20″ of extra depth vs. the heater is controlled better than most. Expect him to move past Double-A shortly into 2026 and I’m excited to see him come together. I wonder if the breakers are deadly enough to be the proper one-two with his heater, but his above-average command gets me excited.
Braylon Doughty (RHP, A, Age 20) – Watch Video
Drafted in 2024, Doughty fanned 99 batters in 85.1 innings of his first year of professional ball in Single-A last season, utilizing a low-to-mid 90s heater and a pair of breakers with elite spin. There’s more apparent upside in his arm at 20 years old than most in the organization and he’s an arm to keep an eye on, especially if he gets promoted to Double-A out of camp. I’m curious if he’s added polish and can keep his velocity up when he’s allowed to consistently travel more than five innings.
