In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Cole Ragans (LHP)
2025 Stats: 61.2 IP | 4.67 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 38.1 K% | 7.8 BB%
Ragans was all PEW PEW PEW in his first three starts, then he endured a groin strain, missed some time, returned, and missed three months with a rotator cuff strain, possibly due to the inconsistent cadence on the bump. But when he came back, oh BABY was it beautiful. The four-seamer laughed through RHB bats for 27 whiffs in three games, where he averaged about 70 pitches per start. I think that shoulder is fine. You may not realize that Ragans’ four-seamer has the most total break of any four-seamer in baseball, despite having just 16″+ of vert. His absurd run on the pitch paired with the rise is what makes it so dang tough to hit at 95+ mph, and you should absolutely expect that to continue.
That fastball makes Ragans a SWATCH who happens to have an elite heater, like Skubal. The difference between the two? Left-handers. Ragans obliterates RHB with the changeup and heater with deserved hubris, hurling them over the plate without fear (I still miss the glory days of the cutter and slider, but I get it), while LHB have humbled Ragans, even before he took off. In fact, the new slider that was a gamechanger was added to take care of LHB. Unfortunately, the slider declined in 2024. Its hard contact spiked in concert with a dip below a 60% strike rate, and it’s a problem. Ragans’ lack of LHB four-seamer whiffs or trust in his changeup to LHB means the slide piece needs to strike fear into the hearts of his enemies in order for the two-pitch LHB approach to work. I wonder what Ragans would look like with a sinker + featuring more changeups to LHB. It would put less pressure on nailing his slider location (it can be spotty at times), ultimately reducing deeper counts with quick outs via the sinker, which lowers the WHIP via fewer walks and hits.
At any rate, Ragans is sure to flirt with a 30% strikeout rate once again and consistently toss 90+ pitches a game. The only real worry is the volume after going on the IL for two different injuries last season, including one involving his shoulder (always a scary thing). That said, I’m a big fan of pitchers making an appearance in late September to showcase their health and pave the way for a smooth offseason, and at the very least, Ragans should be firing on all cylinders out of camp. Play the injury risk game as you’d like, just note that Ragans is one of the only arms who can perform at the level of the Holy Trinity inside Tier 1.
Quick Take: Ragans is a SWATCH with a phenomenal fastball, and there’s more to unlock with his approach to LHB that can propel him to a comfortable spot among the Top 5 SP. The biggest question? His health. A groin strain preceded a three month stint on the IL nursing a rotator cuff strain, and it’s hard to ignore the shadow looming over 2026. That said, Ragans’ three stud starts in his return from the IL to close out the season is as good of an argument as you’ll find to suggest a healthy arm entering the year.
Michael Wacha (RHP)
2025 Stats: 172.2 IP | 3.86 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 17.6 K% | 6.3 BB%
Wacha is what he is – a changeup first right-hander without a whole lot else going on. His ability to limit walks and HRs has allowed Wacha to return a sub 4.00 ERA and sub 1.25 WHIP in each of his last four seasons, though the dimensions changing in Kansas City may propel him above a 4.00 ERA in the year ahead. A two tick drop in changeup velocity led to less domination against LHB, while the four-seamer continues to be a pain point that I hope the cutter can alleviate with an increase in usage this season. Consider Wacha a sleeper in your AL-Only leagues for his quality ratios over the years with the chance of redeeming his lost strikeouts (his changeup’s putaway rate plummeted dramatically), though his step back last year may be the final one before the cliff.
Quick Take: Wacha has quietly produced stellar ratios across four straight seasons, but a dip in efficiency on his signature changeup in 2025 could spell the beginning of the end in 2026. Nevertheless, there’s still hope his putaway rates can normalize and bring his strikeout rate back to 20%, especially if the cutter can bear a larger load.
Kris Bubic (RHP)
2025 Stats: 116.1 IP | 2.55 ERA | 1.18 WHIP | 24.4 K% | 8.2 BB%
He was a breakout star last season across his first 12 starts, then slowed down a bit entering June, capping the season off with an IL stint at the end of July due to a rotator cuff strain. Not great, Bob. However, at the beginning of the year, we didn’t know about the power of the “SWATCH,” and Bubic had all the elements you want, except for supreme velocity. So, the 92 mph fastball was hit? A bit, yeah, but it also returned a 13% SwStr to RHB while the changeup cooked and the sweeper returned a 35% CSW, and he elected to feature 19% sinkers to LHB to great effect. There’s still room for growth here – the four-seamer should be saved for two-strike counts to LHB, his sweeper & slider aren’t the devastators to LHB we expect from southpaws, and he really shouldn’t try that slide piece to RHB.
At the very least, if Bubic is healthy out of camp, I’d expect him to be more of the same, likely with a better walk rate as he certainly finds enough strikes to prevent free passes (it was a handful of games where he lost his feel that pushed it up), and a lower WHIP with more sinkers over four-seamers. Easy tweaks. As far as his ability to pitch, he’s healthy, and had a normal offseason leading into spring training, according to the latest reports. That’s what you said about PabLó. Yes, that’s true. Welcome to the impossibility of predicting pitching injuries. I understand passing on Bubic at a high price due to the uncertainty, but if Bubic pitches through camp, that’s already extra time that he isn’t hurt. In addition, Bubic is a free agent at the end of 2026, which certainly makes me feel like the Royals will push him instead of baby him, and Bubic will go for as long as he can. You’ll likely be able to grab him as your SP #5/6, and I’m so down for that.
Quick Take: Health is a question mark, though the draft price bakes it in effectively, leaving a SWATCH with room to grow ripe for the draft pick. His four-seamer and changeup are fantastic to RHB, and a heavier lean on sinkers to LHB will do wonders to limit hits as his walk rate positively regresses. I’m a fan.
Seth Lugo (RHP)
2025 Stats: 145.1 IP | 4.15 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 20.5 K% | 9.0 BB%
I was initially interested in Lugo for 2026, considering his effectiveness early in 2025 until his back began barking, but there was one metric that has me worried: his curveball velocity. It was down two ticks all season. Normally, I wouldn’t care so much about a hook falling to 77 mph from 79 mph, but Lugo’s yakker is his tether to success. The slower velocity led to a massive decline in whiffs, crumbling the putaway rate, and, naturally, his success. It’s not a terrible play to have Lugo the opening weekend and see if things are better, though I’d reserve it for 15-teamers, not 12-teamers. There are better options for volume.
Quick Take: Lugo’s back injury cut his season short, but his struggles were apparent before he was forced off the field. His full arsenal is only worthwhile if it leads to a dominant curveball. Without the weapon, it’s all too mediocre to trust out of the gate.
Noah Cameron (LHP)
2025 Stats: 138.1 IP | 2.99 ERA | 1.10 WHIP | 20.5 K% | 7.7 BB%
To some, Cameron’s 2025 success doesn’t make sense. And honestly, it doesn’t really make sense to me either. At least, I wouldn’t dare suggest that his .241 BABIP and 84% LOB rate, which catalyzed his 2.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, are what we should expect consistently. And his fastball! 92 mph with a sub 60% strike rate and 5% SwStr rate! Yep, that’s not great in the slightest. Thing is, Cameron knows it’s not a great pitch, and keeps it elevated, avoiding the heart of the plate. Instead, he relies on his stellar secondary command to feature sliders, cutters, and curves to LHB, while pushing a great changeup over the slider to RHB. It all works. He commands the cutter inside, change away and uses the curveball effectively as a putaway pitch to RHB, while the slider does exactly what it should to LHB, with help from the harder cutter landing above it. The only real worry is the four-seamer and hopefully he can reduce its SIP% (Strikes in Play) from a 97th percentile and BIP% (Balls In Play) down from 87th percentile. We don’t want this pitch in play, we want everything else.
Here’s what I see: Cameron’s 20% strikeout rate is low for his 12-13% SwStr rate and should go up as the BABIP does. Wait, what?! Yes, instead of those early pitches landing for outs in play, they’ll be hits, leading to less efficiency, Cameron adjusting to avoid early hacks, and finding two strikes more often. Weird, right? In concert, this will mean a few more hits and the ratios will increase, but then again, maybe he has a sinker to help. Or the 94 mph velocity we saw in March last year before it fell to 92 mph. At the very least, he’s a command pitcher with strong secondaries. That’s a steady Toby with upside for Holly.
Quick Take: Cameron’s command leads the way and could combat the clear regression of his HOTEL. The strikeouts should rise a bit, while the ratios are likely rising along the way. Consider him a great volume arm for 15-teamers and a Toby who could be more in 12-teamers.
On The Fringe
Bailey Falter (LHP)
2025 Stats: 125.1 IP | 4.45 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 15.6 K% | 8.9 BB%
You’re still here? Go to the Rays! But seriously, he has seven feet of extension and an arsenal that doesn’t know what to do with it. His high arm slot creates some vert and cut on his pitches, but he doesn’t locate them particularly well, nor does he have a secondary pitch he can rely upon for whiffs. Maybe it’ll appear at some point, and I’d hold off until then. His slider had a 53% strike rate with a 13% SwStr rate to LHB, after all.
Ryan Bergert (RHP)
2025 Stats: 76.1 IP | 3.66 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 22.6 K% | 10.8 BB%
We saw a fun run from Bergert in the middle of the summer once he became a Royal, allowing just 2 ER or fewer in at least five frames in each of his first six starts for the new club, leaning a bit more into his sweeper and easing off the four-seamer – a great call considering the sweeper was his only pitch to RHB last season that returned under a 43% ICR. Shockingly, Bergert has reverse splits with his three primary offerings – four-seamer/slider/sweeper (mediocre sinker just for RHB) – all boasting weaker contact allowed against LHB, all below 36% ICR, in addition to 65%+ strikes. Well that’s interesting. It really is, and I can’t put my finger on why. All I have is a massive difference in GB/FB rates between the two – LHB held a 20% ground ball rate and 40-50% flyball rate against the four-seamer and slider, while RHB had 54% grounders on the slider and 36% flyballs on the four-seamer – and it’s all a bit strange to me. I don’t love Bergert’s 93/94 mph heater (his 49 degree arm angle negates most of the vert he gets) and his slider and sweeper aren’t elite. As much as I want to believe in something here, it feels foolish to chase before he even has a starting gig.
Quick Take: Bergert had odd LHB/RHB splits last year and without a dominant heater nor an elite breaker, I’m not willing to lean into his ability to generate weak contact against LHB. There isn’t enough electricity in the arsenal for me to circle Bergert as an arm to monitor in hopes for another chance at the rotation, though I’m sure he’ll get a shot soon, likely as the team’s #6 SP entering the season. Wait and see.
Stephen Kolek (RHP)
2025 Stats: 112.2 IP | 3.51 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 16.7 K% | 6.7 BB%
Kolek is easy to summarize. He’s a sinker/slider guy with two-plane sink that gets inside and gets under bats to return a whole lot of weak contact (27% ICR to RHB!) and nothing else. The slider returned just 13% whiffs to RHB and lefties? Oh dear, all of it is rough. As you normally find for a 93/94 mph sinker with a mediocre slider. His changeup gets a ton of drop and you’d hope it could be a nullifier, but he struggles to get on top of it, leading to far too high of an NC Rate as it fades into the opposite batter’s box. The Royals are sure to lean on Kolek a reasonable amount for what they hope to be decent volume at some point this season given the health track record of their rotation, and I’d only consider him as a streamer against RHB-heavy lineups, unless something new shows up.
Quick Take: His sinker does great work against RHB, and the rest of the arsenal just stands around and watches. There’s a reason why he had a 16% strikeout rate last season and I wouldn’t bank on his ratios staying low with so much reliance on BABIP.
Names To Know
Alec Marsh (RHP)
I feel for Marsh. He got shoulder labrum surgery in November 2025 and is likely missing the entirety of the 2026 season. Why are you writing about him then? Because you need to know that you shouldn’t think about him. Oh. Makes sense. I got you.
Mitch Spence (RHP)
Note: This was written when Spence was on the Athletics, before he was traded to the Royals on 2/12.
I have a soft spot for Spence as a “discount Rasmussen” arm who has flexed a hard 93+ mph cutter in the past with a legit slider underneath. Sadly, he hasn’t had a secure rotation spot and his velocity has fallen to 90 mph with questionable command. But maybe one day…
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Ben Kudrna (RHP, AAA, Age 22) – Watch Video
Watching Kudrna, I don’t see anything particularly interesting about what he does, save for a changeup with good fade that he has solid feel for landing away and at the knees to LHB. Otherwise, it’s an 84 mph gyro slider (blegh) and 77 mph curveball with poor depth, and a pair of fastballs at 91/92 mph that are all kinds of hittable. There has been some intrigue that he can increase the heaters and do more with the secondaries, and that remains to be seen.
Chandler Champlain (RHP, AAA, Age 26) – Watch Video
I’ll make this quick. Champlain has been torched in Triple-A since his 2024 promotion. His 92/93 mph four-seamer and sinker are both below average across the board at six feet of extension and a high arm angle, forcing him to rely on a decent 87 mph slider, questionable changeup, and inconsistent curveball. This. Ain’t. It.
Felix Arronde (RHP, A+, Age 22) – Watch Video
It’s a mid 93-96 mph fastball with a slider he loves down-and-away to RHB and a split-changeup with legit drop to LHB. We haven’t seen a strikeout explosion quite yet, sitting under a strikeout an inning in nearly 240 innings of A and A+ across 2024 and 2025, though he’s been incredibly difficult to hit and displayed above-average control. If he continues to gain strength in Double-A this season, Felix should be the first name the Royals consider if they are looking for a prospect to stick with the team for good.
Hunter Patteson (LHP, AA, Age 25) – Watch Video
There isn’t a whole lot to report on Patteson, who failed to accrue a strike per inning in 49 frames of Double-A in 2025 with a 4.41 ERA. All reports have made him appear okay and without any standout attributes that suggest a surge up the system in 2026. He’s not the lanky southpaw slinger like many of his peers, featuring a cocked delivery akin to Giolito and Kutter, which suggest a four-seamer/change/gyro more than what we see of SWATCH types. Until he produces strong numbers, you can leave Patteson off your radars.
