In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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Expected Starters
Shota Imanaga (LHP)
2025 Stats: 144.2 IP | 3.73 ERA | 0.99 WHIP | 20.6 K% | 4.6 BB%
There’s a whole lot of talk about Imanaga’s HRs and his drop in strikeouts, creating this picture of a pitcher (sorry to those with an accent for the repetitive word) who is destined to hurt you in fantasy leagues. Uhhhh, he just had a near 2.0 HR/9 season (highly likely to positively regress, about one or two pitchers have that per season) and he still had a 3.71 ERA. How? Because he doesn’t walk batters and is a heavy flyball pitcher, i.e. low BABIP, i.e. a 0.99 WHIP with few runners on base when they do hit HRs. The benefit of Imanaga’s WHIP outweighs the ERA concerns in my view, let alone the fact that I think he’ll allow fewer longballs this year. Let me tell you why.
The antagonist of Imanaga’s 2025 campaign was his four-seamer. The pitch was down a tick to 90/91 mph in April and never recovered, while he lost over an inch of vert by the second half, causing a surge of HRs in his final six games (12 of his 31!). The impact was felt everywhere. His fastball’s 17% putaway rate was roughly average in 2024, but fell to 12% in 2025, a sight worthy of ghost tales around a campfire. The lack of fastball fear was felt in his splitter as well, which also dropped in putaway rate, a full six points down to a below-average 20% for league-wide splitters. Not fun.
The argument is simple: Imanaga is unlikely to carry the same putaway rates with his four-seamer and splitter, which in turn reduces the chances of batters hitting HRs as he earns more strikeouts. It’s that simple. The biggest counter is his fastball’s loss of velocity and drop in vert in the second half, and it’s why I don’t have Imanaga in my Top 25 as I did in October. I personally believe its vert drop is a product of his hamstring injury and is something Zombro & Co. will work on to fix for 2026, bringing Imanga back to a low-to-mid 3s ERA with an elite WHIP and 22%+ strikeouts for a great team. How can you turn that down?
Quick Take: HRs off the four-seamer plagued Imanaga in 2025, though he still managed to keep runners off the basepaths via pop-ups and refusing to distribute free passes. With positive regression expected in both HRs allowed and putaway rates, I anticipate an improved 2026 season as a workhorse for a winning team, making him a great SP #3/4 for fantasy squads.
Matthew Boyd (LHP)
2025 Stats: 179.2 IP | 3.21 ERA | 1.09 WHIP | 21.4 K% | 5.8 BB%
Boyd Boyz, look at your man. The king of the SWATCH, the leader of the trend, the ace for staffs through his first twenty starts of a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate as he went 11-3 through July 22nd. And then…you may want to close your eyes…Boyd held a 5.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with an 18% strikeout rate in his final eleven outings through the finish line. It was a nightmare. It sure was and there isn’t a whole lot to explain it.
I did plenty of digging and found two shifts. First, his four-seamer to LHB was deftly spotted inside in the first half of the year, but it leaked toward the middle of the plate in the second half, returning a horrible 60% ICR, turning Boyd from a flyball pitcher (low BABIP) to a ground ball pitcher, allowing burners to go through holes and add far more baserunners. Not good.
The second shift took some effort to unearth. Against RHB, Boyd allowed just nine walks off his changeup through July 22nd. However, in nearly half the games, he surrendered almost double the number of walks with the slowball – seventeen walks with the changeup in eleven games. It was a product of Boyd missing armside more than usual and it was another factor to more baserunners, which led to more runs.
Both of these negative trends can be reversed, though I will acknowledge that the initial domination was never truly sustainable. If you’d like to play the game of “somewhere in the middle”, go right ahead. At the very least, Boyd is not as rough as his final months, and I still see a fantastic changeup for RHB with a four-seamer that PLV loves above it, merged with a sweeper that kills LHB + a solid fastball approach that shouldn’t leak out so much next year. That should return another solid season for Boyd and I’m all for riding alongside him out of drafts.
Quick Take: The second half was rough due to a pair of failures with his four-seamer and changeup command. I don’t expect warts to go untreated, opening the door for another workhorse season of production on a great team. Manage your expectations, though – it’s unlikely he’ll have such a blissful first half again.
Edward Cabrera (RHP)
2025 Stats: 137.2 IP | 3.53 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 25.8 K% | 8.3 BB%
Well this is fun. Cabrera was traded to the Cubs in early January and it’s a lovely fit. I’m a fan of Tyler Zombro’s work (Tread Athletics!) and it should be a large step up from Miami’s assistance. Wins should be easier to find, the Cubs defense has routinely been among the best in the league, and fortunately, Cabrera has already made the right changes to his game. All he needs to do is more of the same.
That same is a lower arm angle and the adjustment from his repugnant four-seamer that repelled the zone for a sub 54% strike rate last year to a sinker against RHB with a 71% strike rate. Ohhhh, so THAT’S why his walk rate is better. Yup. Please stop looking at career walk rates and thinking he’s “in-between”. If a pitcher has a low strike pitch and replaces it with a high strike pitch, he’s not going to back to the low strike pitch. Stop looking at the output (BB%) at look at the input (Pitch Level Strike%).
That sinker isn’t the sole tweak. The pitch gets demolished as much as any in the league by LHB, and I loved watching his 88/89 mph slider (think cutter) work the inside edge to LHB in the second half. If I had it my way, I’d have Cabrera go “changeup” (quotations because it’s 94/95 mph lol) and slider to LHB, with the rare sinker down-and-away to keep batters honest on the slowball + a rare high four-seamer in two-strikes. While we’re at it, throw in the reliable curveball for called strikes, too.
I have to acknowledge the elbow sprain in the summer of 2025 that is sure to pour cold water on those aggressively eager to draft him. However, I have often cited my love for pitchers who have an arm injury and return to pitch before the end of the season, expressing health and allowing for a normal off-season, and that’s what Cabrera did, starting two games at the end of September, including a final start of dominance against the Mets, where he sat 1-2 ticks up on everything. It means I’m not concerned in the short term, though ECab has yet to produce a season above 140 IP – last season was his first over 100! – and I don’t love drafting arms at a price where they need to do something they haven’t yet.
Cabrera should help all fantasy teams, though the balance of “how much will he help?” and “how many innings will he survive?” is a tough one to wrangle. It puts me in a position where I’m okay letting Edward slide a touch in drafts before electing to grab him, but I’d much rather snag him instead of a HIPSTER or another arm who has yet to put it all together.
Quick Take: I love the adjustments Cabrera made at the start and end of the season, priming him for a true breakout campaign in 2026 with a great squad supporting him. However, he’ll have to stay on the mound to make it happen and with 2025’s 137 IP marking his first above 100 frames, there’s good reason to be hesitant about his 2026 volume. At the very least, expect the walk rate to stay down with a similar ERA and sub 1.20 WHIP. He won’t hurt you.
Jameson Taillon (RHP)
2025 Stats: 129.2 IP | 3.68 ERA | 1.06 WHIP | 18.9 K% | 5.2 BB%
Taillon is a tinkerer in the best way. He features a wide arsenal and throws strikes at will, helping him lean into the Cubs’ defense while limiting free passes. Unfortunately, it comes with a poster on his wall with 20% strikeout rate in a jazzed font, dreaming of its return. In addition, if Taillon doesn’t have the best feel for his arsenal on a given day, the raw stuff will do little to save him, creating nights that crater his ratios across the steady season.
I wonder what tweaks we’ll see this year. His embrace of a kick-change was incredible, creating a true weapon against LHB for the first time in…forever? – Its 20% SwStr rate is a beautiful sight and even with a few too many floating into the middle of the zone, his ability to keep it under the four-seamer suggests it will be favored more than its 20% usage last season, especially after pushing it near 30% in his final three starts. Love that.
I have some concerns about the four-seamer above it against LHB, which did an impeccable job of nailing the corners in the first half, then landed middle-away in the second, causing more damage than ideal. The curveball appears often as a called strike pitch, but he needs an offering to go inside to LHB and prevent them from leaning out. It wasn’t the cutter last year – 8% usage as an outside surprise called strike – but its sizeable horizontal bend makes me wonder if he can turn it into a surprise inside pitch for those expecting his 45% usage four-seamer away. Stop me if you’ve heard that before.
He’s not the most thrilling starter out there, but he’s awfully serviceable and a perfect fit on the Cubs. You can stare at the 4.19 and 4.57 xFIP of his last two seasons all you like, this is a pitcher who deserves his sub 4.00 ERAs of the past two seasons and I’m willing to wager he can do so again, while returning another 65%+ QS rate. Follow the schedule and I’d rather chance this than an unknown HIPSTER.
Quick Take: The sub 20% strikeout rate is unappealing, but the ratios are not. He’s a pitcher who leans into his advantages: Great defense behind him, low walk rate, wide array, and ability to wield his pitches as he needs to. There’s even more upside than expected with an improved changeup that should see an uptick across 2026. He’s safer than you think.
Cade Horton (RHP)
2025 Stats: 118.0 IP | 2.67 ERA | 1.08 WHIP | 20.4 K% | 6.9 BB%
I go back and forth with Cade Horton. On one hand, he looks setup to be a 180 IP workhorse with a wide array, above average command, 95+ mph velocity, and a whiff pitch for each handedness. However, he doesn’t locate his cut four-seamer well and despite the 20% SwStr on his sweeper + 23% on his changeup to their respective batters, he fanned just 20% of batters in 2025. Weird.
Mostly, it’s due to his inefficiency with his sweeper to RHB in two-strike counts. Its 17% putaway rate sticks out with a lower-than-expected clip (20%+ would be average, let alone one with its high SwStr rate) and I expect it to normalize in the year ahead. The changeup also wasn’t quite as effective as we’d like against LHB with a sub 60% strike rate, which forced Horton to end at-bats before possible punchouts via four-seamers or curveballs. Again, these improvements are common in a second year in the majors.
I like Horton for the year ahead, as long as it comes without expectations of a major breakout campaign. There’s too much needed growth in his four-seamer precision and execution with his secondaries in two-strike counts to depend on a surge of strikeouts and maintaining the good graces of Koufax is a tough task. (his skills profile out to more of an 8 hits-per-nine, not the 7.2 mark of 2025). Even if he doesn’t change much and has a few more grounders sneak past, Horton’s ability to throw strikes and manipulate the baseball will have him finding the sixth inning fairly often, with pitch counts above 90 consistently. I’m excited to see how he develops.
Quick Take: Horton doesn’t have the electricity of his sophomore peers, but he has them beat in volume and control, while maintaining some strikeout upside via his secondaries and early count execution. If he’s able to find precision in his changeup and four-seamer, he can take his grounded floor and flirt with AGA.
On The Fringe
Colin Rea (RHP)
2025 Stats: 159.1 IP | 3.95 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 19.2 K% | 6.6 BB%
He was a surprise streamer/pick up when he replaced Justin Steele in the rotation last season and you can thank his four-seamer’s shocking skill against RHB for his success. No, I don’t believe it’ll go 70%+ strikes with a 12% SwStr rate and sub 40% ICR for another year in a row. The rest of his attack to RHB was fine, with sinkers failing to get inside a ton, and sweepers missing a handful of bats and mitigating hard contact. It wasn’t fun watching Rea square up against LHB, though. He reached into his back pocket to pull out a splitter over 20% of the time, which didn’t return the CSW needed to be a strong #2 offering (21% CSW?! Yikes.), leaving the hittable four-seamer and called-strike-focused curveball to do the rest. In short, he’ll struggle against LHB and likely regress to RHB, and all we can hope for is Rea to be good enough to stream on a random night or two across the year. The Cubs sure don’t want to rely on another 160 frames from Rea this season.
Quick Take: Rea was a fantasy savior for many deep-league teams last season. Don’t expect a replication in 2026 with clear regression coming for his four-seamer, and a LHB attack that is sure to create many disaster outings when he’s given the pearl in the first. He’s a streamer at best.
Javier Assad (RHP)
2025 Stats: 37.0 IP | 3.65 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 15.0 K% | 7.8 BB%
I still don’t understand how Assad gets away with it. He throws sinkers, cutters, and sweepers to RHB that are average at best that convert enough outs to return solid ERA marks, while his attack to LHB comes with high sinkers, poor cutters, and a sub 2% SwStr four-seamer that allows all the hard contact. It really shouldn’t work. We can spin all the narratives we want that He just knows how to sequence and work the edges when he needs to, etc. but in reality, pitchers like Assad do not work out in a large enough sample. At the moment, the Cubs are likely to turn to either Assad or Rea for innings when they inevitably have a hole to fill, and I preach caution to those considering a pickup of any kind, outside of a streaming opportunity after they’ve proven they can go 80+ pitches of quality.
Quick Take: Assad has Koufax to thank for never returning an ERA above 3.75 in his career, though his luck is sure to run out with his average offerings. After a 15% strikeout rate in 2025 with a WHIP that you have to convince yourself to digest and low volume that caps his Win potential, Assad’s only value comes in the form of the hope for a sub 4.00 ERA once again.
Justin Steele (LHP)
2025 Stats: 22.2 IP | 4.76 ERA | 1.15 WHIP | 22.8 K% | 5.4 BB%
Steele is recovering from TJS and the hope is for a return by the All-Star break, if not sooner. As long as his feel to command the edges with his fastballs and breaker returns, Steele should return to form quickly, even if it comes with a slight velocity dip – he’s less reliant on velo than his contemporaries.
The name of the game has been a four-seamer with cut action that he manipulates well upstairs and inside to RHB, with a breaking ball that acts like a slider and curveball at his whim. A master of inducing soft contact, Steele plays perfectly into the elite Cubs defense and his elevated WHIP of old should not be considered a realistic outcome of his 2026 campaign.
All of that said, there’s always risk in drafting an IL arm. In all likelihood, you’ll fill up your IL slots before summer arrives, and it’s important to have the discipline to drop Steele instead of sacrificing a roster spot when Steele’s ETA is still unclear. In addition, the quality, workload, and health is an unknown, despite the probable outcomes of production in the second half. Per usual, Steele is a last-round IL stash, hoping we get clarity quickly in the season and you’re one of the rare few who can dedicate the IL spot to Steele before he returns.
Quick Take: Steele should be a solid SP #2/3 for fantasy managers when he does return from TJS (not a lock!), but when will that be? Keep checking the wire mid-season if you have an open IL spot to stash the southpaw, hoping he can bring a return akin to Bieber and Bradish of 2025.
Names To Know
Jordan Wicks (LHP)
Here’s a sleeper SWATCH for 2026 and I mean a proper sleeper as Wicks has a few hurdles in his path before he can attain the label. The southpaw’s changeup is the pinnacle of his arsenal and is sure to be a bother to many RHB. His four-seamer jumped in velocity this year to 94+ mph, though he only pitched out of the pen when returning to the team late in the year, creating an expectation of 92/93 mph if he’s stretched out as a starter. That heater once flexed 17″ of vert but came back down after his oblique injury of 2024 and likely was a product of overexertion that he’s since calibrated to 15″ and change. In other words, don’t expect it to return. If he can locate the four-seamer upstairs (and use a cutter to RHB?) and continue his intent to jam LHB inside with sinkers, it comes down to his slider doing its job against LHB to put him on #SwatchWatch2026. I expect the Cubs to rely on Rea and Assad before Wicks when searching for a replacement inside the rotation, though Wicks has the higher ceiling if it all comes together.
Ben Brown (RHP)
Brown was granted an opportunity to start in the rotation in 2024 and 2025 and despite many circles of hype, he was ultimately a HIPSTER at best. Why? Because the fella has two pitches, a mid-to-upper 90s four-seamer that doesn’t miss bats, and an elite curveball. That’s it. The man breaks the Huascar Rule and until he can figure out one of A) Reshape the heater (16″ vert with 0.5 HAVAA = deadzone) B) Add another pitch or C) Have impeccable command, Brown is destined to be a reliever or a SP with rare moments of bliss when he scrapes his way through six frames. Go get a command-focused Toby instead. Please.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Longenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Jaxon Wiggins (RHP, AAA, Age 24) – Watch Video
Jaxon was promoted to Triple-A last season after returning 83 strikeouts in just 68.1 frames between A+ and AA prior, presenting an opportunity for one more call to majors this year. The electricity is clear with 97/98 mph velocity and solid two-plane break on his four-seamer, mixed with a “cutter” that looks like a gyro slider with a touch more lift than ideal, and a changeup with proper drop for LHB. The question is his control and ability to maintain his upper 90s velocity throughout starts. If he hits the ground running in Triple-A this year, he’ll become a spec-add the moment he gets the call. It’s hard to deny velocity like that with a whiffable slider.
Brandon Birdsell (RHP, AAA, Age 25) – Watch Video
He had to undergo TJS for the second time late in the 2025 season, making him easily out for the 2026 season, and a long shot for 2027 as he’ll need to prove his value in 2027 as he ramps back up. What we last saw of Birdsell was a 93/94 mph four-seamer with cut-action and a 90 mph cutter close by as his two favored pitches, supported with an 82 mph curve without drastic movement but a decent ability to find the zone. Nothing electric in here and merged with a delivery flirting with just six feet of extension, I wasn’t high on Birdsell even before the injury. Sorry, Cubs fans.
Will Sanders (RHP, AAA, Age 23) – Watch Video
Sanders has a whole lot of pitches and none of them get me excited. His four-seamer fills up the zone without finding the edges at 92 mph, with an 82 mph gyro slider, a splitter and changeup with massive movement ranges, a curve that doesn’t land where he wants it to often, and even with a cutter and sinker in the mix to make it full seven pitch mix, none of it is special enough to circle as a major upside arm. It could turn Sanders into a Toby in time if he gets the time in the bigs, but he’s not an arm for fantasy.
Connor Noland (RHP, AAA, Age 26) – Watch Video
He throws a 90 mph cut-fastball that is classified as a cutter, but is really a four-seamer that trips over the Plane of 1000 cuts into negative horizontal movement gloveside. It means he’s trying to craft his way through games with low 80s sliders, 79/80 mph curveballs, sinkers that don’t have nearly enough movement and fail to get inside, and a changeup for good measure. This ain’t it, y’all.
Nick Dean (RHP, AA, Age 25) – Watch Video
His changeup is the star of the show with low 90s velocity and a pair of breaking balls that are fine, but aren’t anything to write home about. The best outcome is a random streamer and if he does get a cup of coffee this season, it will be to little fanfare. I do not recommend chasing changeup-first RHP prospects.
