Justin Martinez returned from the IL this past weekend and immediately picked up a blown save and loss pitching in the 8th inning of Saturdays game against the Cardinals. He bounced back yesterday, again working the 8th inning but he was able to pick up a hold in that one. The good news here is a that the velocity looks to be back for Martinez, as he was sitting 100 MPH in both outings. However, his 8th inning usage suggests that Shelby Miller is still the top closing option in Arizona for the time being unfortunately.
That all being said, Miller hasn’t pitched in a week now, with his last outing being a blown save/loss last Tuesday. Prior to that, Miller had rolled off four straight saves, although May was definitely a bumpier month for him, as he’s allowed 6 runs on 11 hits while having a rough 7/6 K/BB ratio. So with Miller struggling in May, and Martinez looking like himself after coming off the IL, I’d think Martinez takes over the closer role as early as this week but I’d recommend rostering both Martinez and Miller if you can for now.
Notes
- Tier 4 vs. Tier 5 is essentially high ceiling vs. steady floor, and I understand if you want to swap the tiers because Tier 5 feels more “safe”. It’s becoming quite clear that the Pirates want David Bednar to take back the closer role, but Dennis Santana was the better pitcher of the two this past week. Bednar did get a save his last time out though, and should still be considered the favorite. Devin Williams has been pitching better since being demoted from the closer role a month ago, and should start being eased back into the role shortly I’d imagine. Over the past month, Williams holds a 1.95 xFIP, and 43% K rate to Luke Weavers 4.35 xFIP, and 22.5% K rate.
- Kyle Finnegan is dealing with a shoulder injury, labelled as minor for now but that was also the case for Justin Martinez before he wound up missing time. The good news for Finnegan is that there doesn’t seem to be much competition behind him for the closer role anyway. Jorge López picked up a save filling in for him this weekend but he’s not exactly someone I feel confident in at the moment. Same goes for Jose A. Ferrer who has flashed closer upside before, but has been way to inconsistent this season.
- Daniel Palencia has three saves over the past week and it’s quite clear that he is the teams trusted closer at the moment. There’s a pretty easy path for him to remain in the role for the remainder of the season as well, as long as he continues to pitch well. Porter Hodge was struggling all season before landing on the IL and we all know how bad Ryan Pressly has been. I love Palencia’s fastball, it’s truly great offering, but I wonder if the slider is a good enough secondary for him to succeed long term. It’s never going to be a big whiff pitch, but for now he’s at least able to throw it for strikes as he kind of works backwards off of it.
- Will Vest picked up another save last night, but Tommy Kahnle got the last one in a game that Vest worked the 8th inning. The situation remains a committee but Vest is still the preferred reliever to roster and even if he is only giving you one save a week at most, he should still be an asset for ratios, K’s and the occasional win. There is definitely a case to be made that he belongs in Tier 4, especially when considering head to head formats or points leagues, I’m just not sure I see the same ceiling with Vest as those other three.
- Similar things could be said about Marlins Ronny Henriquez who picked up his first save of the season with Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher pitching in front of him. That could be the new pecking order in Miami, although they have been all over the place this year. That said, Henriquez (who I wrote about in last week’s Hold Up) is clearly their best reliever and features a unique four pitch mix that can get righties and lefties out.
EDIT: Moved Walker down and Doval up following the announcement Walker was removed from the closer role.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh HaderT1 | HOU | - |
| 2 | Mason Miller | SD | - |
| 3 | Andrés Muñoz | SEA | - |
| 4 | Edwin Díaz | LAD | - |
| 5 | Jeff Hoffman | TOR | - |
| 6 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | - |
| 7 | Emmanuel Clase | CLE | - |
| 8 | Tanner Scott | LAD | - |
| 9 | Aroldis Chapman | BOS | +1 |
| 10 | Félix Bautista | BAL | -1 |
| 11 | Trevor MegillT2 | MIL | - |
| 12 | Emilio Pagán | CIN | - |
| 13 | Jordan Romano | LAA | - |
| 14 | Robert SuarezT3 | ATL | - |
| 15 | Raisel Iglesias | ATL | - |
| 16 | Ryan Helsley | BAL | - |
| 17 | David BednarT4 | NYY | - |
| 18 | Justin Martinez | ARI | +UR |
| 19 | Camilo Doval | NYY | +7 |
| 20 | Devin Williams | NYM | -2 |
| 21 | Pete FairbanksT5 | MIA | -1 |
| 22 | Kenley Jansen | DET | -1 |
| 23 | Carlos Estévez | KC | - |
| 24 | Kyle Finnegan | DET | -2 |
| 25 | Luke WeaverT6 | NYM | -1 |
| 26 | Daniel Palencia | CHC | +4 |
| 27 | Will Vest | DET | -2 |
| 28 | Dennis Santana | PIT | +1 |
| 29 | Ronny Henriquez | MIA | +UR |
| 30 | Shelby MillerT7 | CHC | -3 |
| 31 | Jordan Leasure | CWS | +6 |
| 32 | Robert Garcia | TEX | +6 |
| 33 | Matt Strahm | KC | - |
| 34 | Griffin JaxT8 | TB | -3 |
| 35 | Cade Smith | CLE | -3 |
| 36 | Jason Adam | SD | -1 |
| 37 | Tommy KahnleT9 | BOS | +2 |
| 38 | Ryan Walker | SF | -19 |
| 39 | Luke Jackson | NYM | -11 |
| 40 | Lucas Erceg | KC | -6 |
